CITIZEN-BASED CRIME CONTROL ACTIVITY AND VICTIMIZATION RISKS: AN EXAMINATION OF DISPLACEMENT AND FREE-RIDER EFFECTS*

A common criticism of crime control activities is that such efforts simply redistribute crime to more vulnerable locales and persons rather than prevent it. This displacement effect has been widely assumed but rarely evaluated in previous studies. Using a sample of 5,302 Seattle residents who live on 600 city blocks, this study examines the crime-reduction benefits of safety precautions and whether either displacement or a “free-rider” effect best characterizes how the target-hardening activities of immediate neighbors influence risks of burglary, property theft, and vandalism. The results of this study indicate that only individuals' risks of burglary victimization were significantly reduced by protective action. Contrary to both displacement and free-rider hypotheses, individuals' risks and aggregate rates of victimization were largely unaffected by the protective actions of neighbors. The paper concludes with a discussion of these findings and their implications for public policy on crime prevention.     

Women,Work, and Crime: An International Test of the Emancipation Hypothesis

This study analyzes Interpol statistics on female crime for the 1963–1970 period for a sample of Western nations with the purpose of testing two popular explanations of female criminality. Six measures of female economic participation in society were correlated with female proportional involvement in overall crime rates, theft, fraud, murder, and robbery/burglary.

It was found that women's contribution to the overall arrest rate is neither directly proportional to their employment in the commercial work force, nor to the degree in which their jobs are comparable to those of males. The analysis of the crimes of theft and fraud provided support for the “opportunity” version of emancipation theory. Adler's “aggressive” variant of the emancipation hypothesis was only partly borne out by the data for murder and not supported for robbery and burglary.     

A two southern state comparison of the relationship between UCR crime rates and the anticipation of victimization

The purpose of this study is to investigate the relationship between UCR crime rates and a surveyed population’s anticipation of victimization within the next year. Separate surveys were conducted within the states of Tennessee and Texas. In both surveys, self-reported questionnaires were mailed to a random sample of 2,000 individuals drawn from the population of persons holding valid driver’s licenses within that state. A comparison was made between six Part I (rape, robbery, assualt, burglary, theft, and vehicle theft) UCR crime rates of the two states and the expectation of imminent victimization, as shown by the statewide surveys. Several past studies have suggested that there is little relationship between the official incidence of crime and the perceived likelihood of victimization. However, this study presents evidence in support of a positive relationship between UCR crime rates and the anticipation of victimization. In addition, it was found that the greater the anticipation of victimization level the more likely the respondents were to utilize defensive security devices (target hardening).     

A longitudinal analysis of the arrest-crime relationship: A further examination of the tipping effect

This study examines the contextual effect of arrest clearance rates, over time, on the arrest-crime relationship. The bivariate autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) analyses of monthly crime and arrest data for seven Pennsylvania cities for robbery, burglary, larceny, and auto theft suggest that the deterrent effect of arrests on crime is probably limited to smaller cities whose police department are able to clear an appreciable proportion of crimes over time, through arrests.     

Police Strikes and Conventional Crime

Employing FBI "Return A Record Card" data, this study examines the impact of municipal police strikes on reported rates of burglary, robbery, larceny, and auto theft in 11 U.S. cities. Relationships reflecting the view that police presence is essential for crime prevention and social order are examined for variation duration of police strike, city size, and offense category. Overall, analysis yields very limited support for the police presence argument, suggesting that strikes have neither a significant nor a systematic impact on rates of reported crime. Implications of findings for the formulation of police policy are discussed.     

Crime and arrests: An autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) approach

Various theoretical perspectives suggest that marginal changes in the quantity of crime and arrests are related to one another. Unfortunately, they provide little guidance as to the amount of time that is required for these effects to be realized. In this paper, autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) time-series modeling techniques, which necessitate making minima! assumptions concerning the lag structure one expects to find, are utilized to examine the crime-arrest relationship. The bivariate ARIMA analyses of monthly crime and arrest data for Oklahoma City and Tulsa, Oklahoma, for robbery, burglary, larceny, and auto theft reveal little evidence of a lagged crime-arrest relationship.     

唐以前盗罪之变迁研究

尽管名称不一,但盗罪无疑是古今刑事法律均极为关注的罪名,今人也习惯于以财产性犯罪来理解传统中国的盗罪。然而,在中国文字初创之时,“盗”其实是泛指“不正”“不当”之义的词汇;至战国时代,才被相对明确地用来指称侵犯财产的行为,但其“不正”“不当”之义也并未完全消失。此种日常语义的多层次性也影响到战国秦至汉代的法律对盗罪的设计,使盗罪一方面以非法取财为主旨,另一方面又保留着超越财产性犯罪之概念限定的可能,从而表现出一定的含义复杂性。至魏晋南北朝,立法者们虽试图对盗罪予以分化或净化,但由于“盗”字的日常语义依然具有多层次性,作为法律术语之盗罪的含义复杂性也无法彻底改变并最终遗留在唐律之中。     

TREND AND DEVIATION IN CRIME RATES: A COMPARISON OF UCR AND NCS DATA FOR BURGLARY AND ROBBERY*

Trends and year-to-year deviations in UCR and NCS data on burglary and robbery are examined for the period 1973 to 1985. We find strong correspondence between year-to-year deviations in UCR crime rates and NCS victimization rates for both crime types. The difference between the two data series lies primarily in their contrasting trends, although there is some evidence that trends in UCR and NCS crime rates have been converging in recent years. Ex post forecasts reveal that the UCR/NCS relationships estimated from the 1973–1985 data continued through 1986 and 1987. Although the UCR rates in 1986 were somewhat influenced by unusual increases in the proportion of crimes reported to the police that year, changes in crime reporting for the period as a whole have had little effect on UCR burglary and robbery rates. We conclude that, within the two serious crime types examined in this study, there is strong consistency between the alternative data sources on variations in crime rates over time.     

Discrepancies Between Crime Reports and Crime Surveys:

The absence of strong zero-order associations between victimization and official crime rates for cities has been a puzzle for social scientists since the data for making such comparisons became available. Using the 26 large central cities for which data on both types of rates are available, we analyze the extent to which discrepancies between the rates can be accounted for by aspects of urban social structure that differ from city to city. After introducing such structural controls, we find a much closer correspondence between the two types of rates for motor vehicle theft, robbery, burglary, and forcible rape, but not for aggravated assault and larceny-theft. These results are explained by citing evidence that we have identified some critical "suppressor" variables for the former crimes (i.e., variables that are positively associated with one type of rate and negatively associated with the other). By contrast, the heterogeneous nature of the phenomena subsumed by the latter two crime categories may preclude identification of a similarly parsimonious list of suppressors. One implication of these conclusions is that cross-sectional analyses of intercity variation in official rates may produce results that are in reasonably close correspondence with what would be obtained with victimization rates for certain index crimes, provided that sufficient structural control variables are utilized.     

论刑法中的扒窃——对《刑法修正案（八）》的分析与解读

扒窃是指行为人以非法占有为目的,在公共场所秘密窃取他人随身携带财物的行为。《刑法修正案（八）》对盗窃罪的修改,即＂……或者多次盗窃、入户盗窃、携带凶器盗窃、扒窃的……＂因顿号的使用而容易产生歧义。对此应理解为＂扒窃＂行为是与多次盗窃、入户盗窃、携带凶器盗窃相并列的一种单独构成盗窃罪的条件,而不是仅将＂携带凶器扒窃＂的行为入罪化。扒窃行为区别于一般盗窃行为的特征：一是发生在公共场所;二是窃取的是＂随身携带＂的财物。这两个特征使扒窃行为的社会危害性程度超出了普通盗窃行为,而有了单独入罪的必要性与合理性。     

THE IMPACT OF ECONOMIC CONDITIONS ON ROBBERY AND PROPERTY CRIME: THE ROLE OF CONSUMER SENTIMENT*

Despite its long history in criminology, research on the relationship between macroeconomic conditions and rates of common crime remains limited. That is in part because many analysts doubt that any systematic relationship exists and in part because of disagreement with regard to the validity of the indicators typically used to measure economic conditions. We argue in this article that good theoretical reasons exist to expect macroeconomic effects on crime rates, but many theories imply that collective perceptions of economic hardship should have effects on crime that are independent of those of more “objective” economic indicators. To evaluate this argument, we examine the relationships between the Index of Consumer Sentiment and regional robbery, burglary, larceny, and motor vehicle theft rates in the United States between 1970 and 2003, which was a period of large swings in both consumer sentiment and instrumental crime. Controlling for several factors thought to influence temporal variation in crime rates, we find that consumer sentiment had significant effects on robbery and property crime rates over the period that were largely independent of the effects of unemployment and economic growth. We also find that consumer sentiment accounted for a sizable fraction of the crime decline during the 1990s and yields reasonably accurate predictions of changes in the four offenses in 2004 and in two of the four offenses in 2005. We conclude that the effects of collective economic perceptions should become an important focus of future research on crime trends.     

A tale of three cities: Crime and displacement after Hurricane Katrina

When Hurricane Katrina struck New Orleans in August 2005, it greatly disrupted both the physical and social structures of that community. One consequence of the hurricane was the displacement of large numbers of New Orleans residents to other cities, including Houston, San Antonio, and Phoenix. There has been media speculation that such a grand-scale population displacement led to increased crime in communities that were recipient of large numbers of displaced New Orleans residents. This study was a case study of three cities with somewhat different experiences with Katrina's diaspora. Time series analysis was used to examine the pre- and post-Katrina trends in six Part I offenses (murder, robbery, aggravated assault, rape, burglary, and auto theft) to assess any impact of such large-scale population shifts on crime in host communities. Contrary to much popular speculation, only modest effects were found on crime. Social disorganization theory was used to frame both the analysis and the interpretation of these results.     

SOCIAL INTERACTION AND COMMUNITY CRIME: EXAMINING THE IMPORTANCE OF NEIGHBOR NETWORKS

The social disorganization perspective assumes that social interaction among neighbors is a central element in the control of community crime. Moreover, social interaction among neighbors that occurs frequently, such as every day, is assumed to be most effective. This analysis tests that assumption by exploring the consequences of frequent and infrequent interaction. I construct 10 alternative measures of social interaction and separately examine the effect of each on the rates of three serious crimes across 60 urban neighborhoods. Findings suggest that type of interaction matters. Getting together once a year or more with neighbors has the most consistent and generally strongest effect on burglary, motor vehicle theft, and robbery. Further this form of interaction mediates a significant proportion of the effect of ecological characteristics on community crime. Implications for community crime research are discussed.     

Behavioural case linkage with solved and unsolved crimes

Offender behaviour is used to distinguish between crimes committed by the same person (linked crimes) and crimes committed by different people (unlinked crimes) through behavioural case linkage. There is growing evidence to support the use of behavioural case linkage by investigative organisations such as the police, but this research is typically limited to samples of solved crime that do not reflect how this procedure is used in real life. The current paper extends previous research by testing the potential for behavioural case linkage in a sample containing both solved and unsolved crimes. Discrimination accuracy is examined across crime categories (e.g. a crime pair containing a car theft and a residential burglary), across crime types (e.g. a crime pair containing a residential burglary and a commercial burglary), and within crime types (e.g. a crime pair containing two residential burglaries) using the number of kilometres (intercrime distance) and the number of days (temporal proximity) between offences to distinguish between linked and unlinked crimes. The intercrime distance and/or the temporal proximity were able to achieve statistically significant levels of discrimination accuracy across crime categories, across crime types, and within crime types as measured by Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) analysis. This suggests that behavioural case linkage can be used to assist the investigation, detection and prosecution of prolific and versatile serial offenders.     

Self-reported crime rates of women prisoners

This paper presents findings from the first study of female prisoners' self-reports of criminal activity. Using the criminal career paradigm to frame the analysis, self-reported estimates of crime participation and frequency rates were examined for eight felony crimes. Important similarities between women and men were found in overall patterns of crime. Specifically, a small proportion ofboth women and men described committing a large portion of the total crimes reported. These data also suggest that women and men are similar in violent crime participation — a finding that varies from the current literature. Once active in a crime type, women and men committed assault, theft, and forgery at significantly different rates; no gender differences were found in the annualized frequency rates of burglary, robbery, motor vehicle theft, fraud, and drug dealing. However, although statistical differences were not found in the overall frequency of drug dealing, specific patterns of drug dealing reflected considerable gender variation, with a larger proportion of the female sample committing very frequent (daily) drug dealing activity. The findings reflect the value of the criminal career paradigm for the study of gender differences. Future research should include largescale quantitative designs that allow detailed analyses of correlates of the distinct criminal career dimensions.Points of view are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official position of the U.S. Department of Justice.This research was funded in part by the National Institute of Justice, Grant 87-IJ-CX-0048.     

REEXAMINING SOCIAL DISORGANIZATION THEORY USING CALLS TO THE POLICE AS A MEASURE OF CRIME*

This study examines social disorganization theory using calls to the police during 1980 in 60 Boston neighborhoods. These data, based on complainant reports of crime rather than official police reports, allow further investigation of differences in findings based on victimization data and official crime data. The rates of assault, robbery, and burglary are regressed on poverty, mobility, racial heterogeneity, family disruption, and structural density. Interaction terms for poverty and heterogeneity, poverty and mobility, and mobility and heterogeneity are also explored. Results from this study support findings from recent victimization studies and earlier ecological studies using official counts of crime. Poverty and heterogeneity, along with family disruption and structural density, are found to be important ecological variables for understanding the distribution of crime rates among neighborhoods.     

Predicting symmetry in female/male crime rates

This paper examines changes in female criminality. Data were obtained from 1943 through 1998 on six index crimes: murder, robbery, assault, burglary, auto theft, and larceny. Rape and arson are not included because rape is almost exclusively a male crime, while statistics for arson have not been consistent for the period studied. A review of the literature on female crime is presented. Percentage differences between males and females were obtained for specific crimes for each year. A regression line was computed for this difference by year. Each line is characterized by R², as a measure of confidence in future predictions and “b” levels to determine slope, and the expected year in which male and female crime will achieve equality if current trends continue. The authors also suggest using the year generated as an index on which to compare growth or decline of female crime.     

The Impact of Police Stops on Precinct Robbery and Burglary Rates in New York City, 2003-2010

New York City experienced a dramatic reduction in crime during the 1990s and continuing through the first decade of the current century. Researchers and commentators have debated the role of policing in New York’s crime drop, including the crime impact of New York’s policy of “stop, question, and frisk” (SQF)—yet, prior research on the crime-reduction effects of SQF is limited in important respects. We seek to overcome many of these limitations in a study of SQF effects on yearly precinct-level robbery and burglary rates in New York between 2003 and 2010. Contrary to prior research, the study reveals few effects of SQF on robbery and burglary. We caution against drawing definitive conclusions from both the current and prior research and recommend that future research address both the impact of SQF on crime and possible collateral effects on the rights and liberties of citizens in the communities most affected by the policy.     

RELATIVE COHORT SIZE AND AGE-SPECIFIC CRIME RATES: AN AGE-PERIOD-RELATIVE-COHORT-SIZE MODEL*

The compositional effects of relatively large young-adult cohorts on the total rate of serious crimes is well established. The more subtle effect of relative cohort size on age-specific crime rates, suggested by Richard Easterlin, is more controversial. The literature contains no adequate test of Easterlin's hypothesis as it relates to crime. To provide an adequate test of Easterlin's theory, this study includes age-specific rates and measures of relative cohort size and controls for age and period in an age-period-relative-cohort-size model. Using arrest data from the Uniform Crime Reports (Part I crimes) for the years 1960, 1965, 1970, 1975, 1980, and 1985, the analysis provides support for Easterlin's theory for property crimes, that is, for robbery, burglary, and larceny (but not for motor vehicle theft). Though these relationships were small in comparison to those between age or period and age-specific crime rates, they were generally statistically significant and were replicated with data from 1962, 1967, 1972, 1977, 1982, and 1987. The relationships between relative cohort size and assaultive crimes provided little consistent support for Easterlin's theory.     

MACRO-MICRO INTEGRATION IN THE STUDY OF VICTIMIZATION: A HIERARCHICAL LOGISTIC MODEL ANALYSIS ACROSS SEATTLE NEIGHBORHOODS*

Recent contextual analyses of victimization survey data are extended by application of hierarchical logistic model techniques. Using a multi-stage sample of 5,090 Seattle residents, we estimate models for individuals' risks of violent crime and burglary victimization as a function of both individual crime opportunity factors (routine activity and personal lifestyle) and contextual indicators of neighborhood social disorganization (neighborhood incivilities on conditions of disorder, ethnic heterogeneity, and neighborhood density in terms of both residents and strangers). Strong contextual direct effects of density, disorder, and heterogeneity are observed for violent and or burglary risks. Further, the hierarchical method used here provides a richer type of contextual analysis, indicating that neighborhood factors also “condition” the impact of crime opportunity factors for risk of both violent and burglary victimization. Implications for theoretical integration, victimization prevention strategies, and crime control policies are discussed.