RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE OFFENDING FREQUENCY (λ) OF IMPRISONED AND FREE OFFENDERS*

In the public debate over incarceration policy, there is considerable disagreement about what value of individual offending frequency (λ) is appropriate to use in estimating incapacitative effects. This article provides an approach for estimating the mean values of λ for diverse subsets of the total offender population, with particular emphasis on subsets generated by filtering through various stages of the criminal justice system. Sharp differences in offending frequency are displayed between robbery and burglary inmates, across three states, and particularly between resident inmates and free, active offenders. Free offenders average 1 to 3 robberies and 2 to 4 burglaries per year, while resident inmates have λ values 10 to 50 times higher. Differences result from the underlying levels of criminal activity and the sanction Levels that offenders face. A highly heterogeneous distribution of offending frequency in the total population of offenders combines with relatively Low imprisonment levels to lead to substantial selectivity of high-λ offenders among resident inmates and a correspondingly low mean value of λ among those offenders who remain free. These results have important implications for estimating incapacitative effects of an increase in incarceration, since the additional inmates will be drawn from free offenders whose mean λ is at least an order of magnitude Lower than that of the current inmate population.     

Participatory Budgeting in Midwestern States: Democratic Connection or Citizen Disconnection?

What participation mechanisms connect citizens and city officials? Do they produce valued outcomes? Surveys of elected officials suggest that microlevel mechanisms such as direct citizen contact are more valuable in meeting participation goals than are mechanisms focusing on macrolevel concerns. However, there is a disconnect between perceptions about value and the use of mechanisms. State‐level participation requirements and a city manager have little effect on the value of a mechanism. These findings raise some questions: why are microlevel participation mechanisms favored, why do some mechanisms have value even though respondents have little experience with them, and why is there a misalignment between participatory goals and the mechanisms used?     

East African Development

This article represents the bulk of the speech by the Kenyapolitician now member of the E. African Central Assembly, toa joint meeting with the Royal Empire Society, under the Chairmanshipof Roger Norton, C.M.G., O.B.E., the East African Commissionerin London.     

REDEMPTION IN THE PRESENCE OF WIDESPREAD CRIMINAL BACKGROUND CHECKS*

Criminal background checks have now become ubiquitous because of advances in information technology and growing concerns about employer liability. Also, a large number of individual criminal records have accumulated and have been computerized in state repositories and commercial databases. As a result, many ex‐offenders seeking employment could be haunted by a stale record. Recidivism probability declines with time “clean,” so some point in time is reached when a person with a criminal record, who remained free of further contact with the criminal justice system, is of no greater risk than a counterpart of the same age—an indication of redemption from the mark of crime. Very little information exists on this measure of time until redemption and on how its value varies with the crime type and the offender's age at the time of the earlier event. Using data from a state criminal‐history repository, we estimate the declining hazard of rearrest with time clean. We first estimate a point of redemption as the time when the hazard intersects the age–crime curve, which represents the arrest risk for the general population of the same age. We also estimate another similar redemption point when the declining hazard comes “sufficiently close” to the hazard of those who have never been arrested. We estimate both measures of redemption as a function of the age and the crime type of the earlier arrest. These findings aid in the development of guidelines for the users of background checking and in developing regulations to enhance employment opportunities for ex‐offenders.     

Above the Boundaries: Ozone Depletion,Equity, and Climate Change*

This introduction examines the global legislative process as it applies to environmental agreements. It argues that this process should be seen as consisting of at least two phases. Phase one seeks to create a broad legislative framework designed to facilitate debate emanating from three different perspectives: science, equity, and economics. Phase one also seeks to attract as many countries as possible to the negotiating process. Phase two then tries to reconcile at least some of the conflicts inherent in these three different starting points.     

TREND AND DEVIATION IN CRIME RATES: A COMPARISON OF UCR AND NCS DATA FOR BURGLARY AND ROBBERY*

Trends and year-to-year deviations in UCR and NCS data on burglary and robbery are examined for the period 1973 to 1985. We find strong correspondence between year-to-year deviations in UCR crime rates and NCS victimization rates for both crime types. The difference between the two data series lies primarily in their contrasting trends, although there is some evidence that trends in UCR and NCS crime rates have been converging in recent years. Ex post forecasts reveal that the UCR/NCS relationships estimated from the 1973–1985 data continued through 1986 and 1987. Although the UCR rates in 1986 were somewhat influenced by unusual increases in the proportion of crimes reported to the police that year, changes in crime reporting for the period as a whole have had little effect on UCR burglary and robbery rates. We conclude that, within the two serious crime types examined in this study, there is strong consistency between the alternative data sources on variations in crime rates over time.     

THE NEW ORLEANS INMATE SURVEY: A TEST OF GREENWOOD'S PREDICTIVE SCALE*

Analysis of face-to-face interviews with 200 male inmates incarcerated in New Orleans, using a modified version of the Rand instrument used in California, Michigan, and Texas, showed the same highly skewed offense-rate distribution but generally lower median offense frequencies. These lower rates are attributed to an improved instrument and method of administration and to Louisiana's much higher incarceration rate. A search for a prediction model for the New Orleans inmate offense rates yielded the same seven-variable model developed by the Rand researchers and the same predictive efficiency as well. The results suggest the generalizability of the seven-item scale, at least to the prediction of inmates' self-reported offense rates.