The activities of the institute

The debate on the role of the IMF in low-income countries has recently gained strength in light of the commitment by the international community to support achievement of the Millennium Development Goals by 2015. The IMF fulfils an important role as an information provider to low-income aid-recipient countries and their bilateral donors, who consider Fund signals as a useful device in their allocation decisions. The IMF also provides lending to low-income countries through the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility (PRGF), established in 1999. The PRGF was designed to address earlier criticism claiming that IMF lending programs to low-income countries had privileged stabilisation over poverty-reducing growth through financial arrangements that had shown little ownership by those countries. The PRGF was meant to support a balanced macroeconomic framework in which low-income economies could pursue growth-enhancing measures with relevant poverty-reducing effects, reflecting policy priorities put forward by the countries themselves. Based on the available evidence, PRGF-supported countries have recorded a favourable growth performance vis-à-vis non-PRGF-supported countries, although the extent to which this outcome has translated into poverty reduction has yet to be assessed.     

从粮食危机反思拉美贸易和农业政策改革

2006～2008年国际大宗粮食价格快速上涨最终酿成了一场世界范围内的粮食危机,期间美国次贷危机的全面爆发更增添了其复杂性.文章主要从供需失衡、投机活动、生物能源开发、发展中国家农业生产受到制约、市场垄断结构等方面分析危机发生的原因,同时阐述危机对拉美国家造成的负面影响:社会骚乱和政局动荡、通货膨胀攀升、赤贫人口增加、国际收支恶化,等等.拉美国家采取的紧急救助、价格控制等措施只在短期内缓解了危机程度,但并未真正解决粮食危机.对拉美国家而言,过去30多年贸易和农业发展中的政策偏差才是造成这种"富饶中的匮乏"现象的根源.因此,拉美国家应建立长期的农业发展战略,并通过集体行动纠正全球农业生产与贸易之间的系统性不平衡.     

论日本大陆政策与俄国远东政策

日本大陆政策与俄国远东政策均形成于19世纪,并分别被两国确定为基本国策。两大政策的目标与实质基本相同,其宗旨均为向外侵略扩张,称雄于东北亚,因而在实施过程中给中国、朝鲜乃至整个亚洲带来深重灾难。两大政策之间的残酷争斗是主流并贯穿始终,但有时又不得不互相妥协和勾结,两国间甚至签订了3次公开协定和4次秘密条约。然而两大政策的结局与其初衷背道而驰,远东政策在一定程度上导致了罗曼诺夫王朝的彻底崩溃,大陆政策的直接结果是日本的战败投降。     

Lessons from Taiwan's Economic Development

Taiwan changed from a traditional agriculture society into an industrialized modern country within roughly one century. This fast development was regarded as a model for developing countries. Taiwan together with Hong Kong, Singapore, and South Korea became known as the Four Asian newly industrialized countries (NICs) in the 1970s, recognized for their successful economic development. However, on its way to becoming a high-income developed country, Taiwan encountered a number of difficulties. Some of them might have been caused by the political threat from China, but there were other challenges that were common to many middle income countries. Taiwan's experiences of the latter may offer lessons to other developing countries. The difficulties for Taiwan caused by China may offer more alarming lessons for countries—including developing countries—that face growing interactions with China.     

Comment on Vreeland (2011): Foreign aid and global governance: Buying Bretton Woods��the Swiss-bloc case

This comment discusses highlights of Vreeland's excellent analysis of how Switzerland was able to use foreign aid to secure its election to provide the executive director to the IMF from its group of countries. This sheds light on a little understood aspect of the governance of the IMF. The comment goes on to argue, however, that the formal role of the executive directors in the operation of the IMF has been substantially diminished over time and that inclusion of more representatives from emerging market countries in the IMF's senior management team is a more important way of substantively increasing the influence of these countries on the behavior of the IMF.     

中越北部湾渔业合作回顾及启示

《中越北部湾渔业合作协定》于2000年12月签署,2004年6月30日正式实施。为了顺利实施北部湾划界及渔业协定的相关规定,中越两国做了大量的工作,也开展了多方面的合作。本文简要介绍《中越北部湾渔业合作协定》的主要特点,回顾8年里双方渔业合作的执行情况及面临的问题,对今后的渔业合作提出一些建议。     

中缅边界问题的解决:过程与影响

中缅边界问题是新中国成立后解决的第一个边界问题。该问题的解决主要在于中国采取了立足现实的政策,因为中国力图通过边界问题的解决消除其他国家对中国的疑虑、谋求和平的周边环境、反制美国的对华遏制。中缅边界问题的解决将中缅关系推向了高潮,为解决缅甸国民党军问题提供了契机,并给印度造成了一定的压力。     

东北亚区域森林资源状况与区域木材供求前景分析

目前,东北亚区域森林资源十分丰富。该区域的森林资源主要集中在俄罗斯远东西伯利亚地区,中国东北地区、日本、韩国、朝鲜和蒙古等国家和地区的森林蓄积量也很大。区域内各国和地区对森林资源需求旺盛,特别是中、日、韩3国已经是世界上重要的木材消费大国和进口大国。随着经济的发展与环保压力的增加,该区域森林资源利用方面在未来将呈现旺盛的发展势头,中国和俄罗斯在未来的东北亚区域森林资源合作开发中应发挥重要作用。     

Towards formulating effective research and development national strategies in Arab countries

Extremely weak R&D has a negative impact on growth and development in Arab countries. Developing a better R&D strategy could enhance capacity and effectiveness of R&D. The failure of the previously developed strategies in Arab countries was due to lack of vision, incorrect identification of R&D priorities, and disregard consulting stakeholders. This article discusses the challenges of developing R&D national strategies in Arab countries including identifying R&D priorities, managing stakeholders, assessing the current situation of R&D, and defining objectives of the strategies.     

Improving Reputation BIT by BIT: Bilateral Investment Treaties and Foreign Accountability

The literature on foreign direct investment (FDI) has paid an increasing interest to international institutions such as bilateral investment treaties (BITs), but whether BITs help attract FDI is an unsettled question. Building on the existing literature, this article argues that BITs can change investors’ perceptions and the corresponding investment they make because signing BITs signals the involvement of another powerful country that is able to compel the host government to comply. This implies that the effect of BITs is not constant across signatory countries: BITs are more effective when they are signed with rich and influential countries. Using monadic and dyadic FDI data, this article finds that BITs signed with powerful countries (defined as the top six largest economies) lead to an increase in FDI inflows (both from these signatory countries and from other countries). BITs signed with other countries, despite in a larger quantity, have little influence on FDI inflows.     

新加坡:2010～2011年回顾与展望

2010年,新加坡政治社会稳定,经济强劲增长,全年经济增长率为14.7%,再创历史新高;外交上继续与东盟各国密切合作,2010年是中国与新加坡建交20周年,中新关系不断深化和发展.     

2011年拉美地区安全形势回顾

2011年拉美地区继续保持总体和平的安全形势,地区内国家通过双边和多边机制构建互信和加强防务合作,应对与地区外国家的冲突。巴西和阿根廷积极加强双边防务合作,成为深化地区安全合作的重要驱动力。拉美国家,尤其是南美国家在近年普遍提高军费支出,掀起一轮军备更新的热潮,但是这种状况并未恶化为一场地区性军事竞赛,拉美军费支出的绝对值仍然处于较低水平。在非传统安全领域,拉美面对来自有组织犯罪和恐怖主义的挑战。反毒是当前美国与拉美安全合作的关键所在,美国希望加强与拉美国家的合作,以便共同打击贩毒,改善公共安全。     

The interconnections of political power,psychotherapy, and world community

This study of the main evening television news programs in four European countries focuses on the framing of news surrounding a major European event, the January 1, 1999, introduction of the common European currency, the euro. We investigated the visibility of political and economic news in general and of the launch of the euro in particular. We found variations across countries in the emphasis on political and economic news, with the proportion of the newscast normally devoted to these subjects ranging from 45% to 60%. Journalists in all countries were more likely to emphasize conflict (rather than economic consequences) in framing general political and economic news. In the coverage of the launch of the euro, there was a greater emphasis on framing the news in terms of economic consequences. The findings are discussed in terms of influences on framing practices internal and external to journalism and the value of the cross-national comparative approach.     

俄罗斯燃料能源的出口

近年来俄罗斯燃料能源出口的特点是出口量大且呈增长趋势;在俄罗斯对外贸易出口总额中占有较大比重;出口量占生产量的比重较大;主要出口到欧洲国家,对独联体国家出口逐渐减少.俄罗斯燃料能源出口发展前景和趋势是今后仍将大量出口燃料能源;将减少对欧洲国家出口,增加对东北亚国家的出口;在大量出口燃料能源的同时,也将扩大某些燃料能源的进口.     

社会保障的东西方比较

现代社会保障制度起源于西方 ,它的基本功能是国家从经济的角度对社会公民的生活提供安全性保护。当代西方发达国家一般都存在完善的社会保障体系。而在东亚国家经济发展和向发达国家迈进的过程中 ,现代社会保障制度发展滞后是一个普遍现象 ,其中有历史文化传统和经济发展水平等原因。东亚不会发展起西方那种多功能的社会保障制度 ,适度福利和国民自保是这个地区社会保障制度的特点。     

东北亚地区各国的旅游认知和旅游意向调查——中国天津市调查的结果和分析

区域旅游合作是新兴而又被关注的领域,近几年东北亚各国的旅游合作取得很大的进展。但是学术界对该区域旅游合作的研究相对而言比较滞后,为了获取第一手资料,为了掌握该地区的旅游环境,尤其是旅游软环境的现状,东洋大学"环日本海地区各国旅游软环境研究"课题组在东北亚地区的5个国家开展了实证研究。通过对中国天津市的调查样本汇总,部分调查结果的分析表明,天津市民出国游去向的选择大多以东北亚国家为目的地;被调查者最想出游的国家依次为日本、韩国、俄罗斯、蒙古和其他国家。同时调查结果还表明了出游与个人条件的关联性。     

Climate finance in the Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS)

Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS) countries lack sufficient funds to combat climate change. The growth of projects under the clean development mechanism (CDM) is not consistent in the region and the relation of that growth to national GDP is not equivalent either. The disbursement of climate funds promised by different countries and donor organisations to different countries in GMS region is very low. A few countries have relied more on external funds to combat climate change, while some have developed their own funds. A strong database and involvement of civil societies might help the region better utilise these climate funds.     

古代中韩文化交流探析

古代中韩文化交流源远流长,对双方的政治、经济、军事、文化教育、文学艺术、体育娱乐乃至日常习俗等各领域,都产生过深刻的影响,形成了很多相似的文化传统。在今后的文化交流中,中韩两国既要保持本民族文化的独特性,也要相互尊重对方国家的独特性,扩大双方的共同性。     

Trade creation and diversion: effects of EU enlargement on agricultural and food products and selected Asian countries

Based on estimation of the gravity equation, this article aims to scrutinise the trade effects emanating from the economic integration of the European Union (EU) by focusing on the trade diversion and trade creation effects of the fifth EU enlargement on 12 groups of agricultural and food products. This paper analyses the changes due to the EU’s enlargement of trade patterns in the agricultural and food sectors among the EU member states and between EU and non-EU countries as well as the effects of the enlargement on exports of agricultural and food products from selected Asian countries to the EU market. Our analysis shows no decline in exports from EU to non-EU countries. Trade creation effects are significantly high for 4 product groups: seafood, woody plants, beverages and tobacco, and animal and vegetable materials. However, trade diversion effects are found in animal and vegetable oils and textile fibres. Moreover, the economic integration has had no significant effect on exports from Asian countries, namely agricultural and food products. The data of 38 countries cover the period 1999–2015.     

Reputations,Perceptions, and International Economic Agreements

How do countries’ actions on the international stage affect their reputations? We propose that, particularly when evaluating countries about whom individuals may have few prior beliefs, international agreements may hold particular sway in establishing countries’ reputations. Specifically, if a relatively unknown country joins an organization with a country that has a good reputation, individuals will judge that original state to be less risky; if the better-known countries are generally perceived to have a bad reputation, the less-known state will also look more risky. This article presents evidence from a survey experiment in which individuals are asked about the weight of various factors in their perceptions of countries’ reputations. Subjects would randomly receive a prompt about a country’s domestic policy reform or its ties to other countries via economic or cultural agreements. The results show that states’ international ties play a role in assessments about country reputations. We also examine possible mechanisms underlying this finding. Lower risk associated with agreements with good countries is largely a function of anticipated economic benefits. However, the higher risk associated with agreements with bad countries seems to be more a function of anticipated political closeness between countries.