Financial Liberalization and Stock Price Behaviour in Asian Emerging Markets

This paper exhibits tests of the random walk hypothesis and market efficiency for seven Asian emerging markets as a result of the influence of financial market integration. Random walk properties of equity prices influence the return dynamic and determine the trade strategies of investors. To examine the stochastic properties of local index returns and to test the hypothesis that stock market prices follow a random walk, the single variance ratio tests of Lo and MacKinlay, as well as the multiple variance ratio test of Chow and Denning are employed. The multiple statistical comparison of variance ratios is based on the Studentized Maximum Modulus distribution with control of the joint-test’s size. The weak-form market efficiency is also tested directly, using a nonparametric runs test. These tests are particularly useful for investigating stock prices the returns of which are frequently not distributed normally. Documented evidence shows that, from the perspective of local investors, weekly stock prices in major Asian emerging markets do not follow a random walk in the pre-liberalization period. However, in the post-liberalization period the weak-form efficiency hypothesis is generally adopted at the 5% level except for the smaller stock markets of Indonesia and Thailand. These empirical findings suggest that financial integration affects the return predictability in such a way that domestic investors might not be able to develop trading strategies allowing them to earn abnormal returns.     

“入世”对我国价格和价格宏观调控的影响及其对策

加入WTO以后，我国的关税将大幅度降低，非关税贸易保护措施削弱，贸易自由化程度提高，国内市场的各类商品将进一步放开，国内外市场的商品将进行公开的、无扭曲的公平竞争，这就为我国的国内市场价格与国际市场价格的对接，为价格的宏观调控的改革提供了前所未有的机遇。“入世”后，国际市场价格对国内市场价格的冲击主要集中在国内的第三产业价格及收费和第一产业的农产品价格。面对“入世”的新情况，为了维护我国的产业安全，我们必须加大市场价格体系的改革力度，形成新的价格体系和价格管理制度。     

Legislation and the Development Of U.S. Grain Expansionism in the 1970s

U.S. agricultural legislation, aimed until the 1970s at limiting farm production, has changed fundamentally in recent years. First, a series of major governmental measures was taken to regulate agriculture, the goals being to expand farm exports, particularly of grain, and to increase the effectiveness of agriculture. The rising world demand for grain required a fundamental change in the established policy of government regulation of agriculture. With the adoption of the Agricultural and Consumer Protection Act of 1973 (1) and the Agricultural Act of 1977 (2), the prevailing policy of land conservation and price stabilization, previously aimed at reducing farm production, came to be replaced by a policy of stimulating farm production, a policy of making grain production capable of standing up in market competition within the country and, primarily, in foreign trade as well. The principal goals of the farm policy expressed in the 1973 law were to enlarge the grain market in every possible way, increase the level of grain production, remove limitations on production, and reduce the government's grain reserves. The law of 1977 eliminated quotas on grain plantings, increased appropriations for the development of agricultural research, and introduced a system of target prices keyed to production costs, replacing the previous parity supplements oriented toward compensating for the differences between the prices for farm products and the goods purchased by farmers.     

Market failure and stagflation: Some aspects of privatisation in Poland

The paper investigates causes of the stagflation phenomena which appeared in Poland in the period after the ‘shortageflation’, i.e. after February 1990. It is conjectured that one of the primary reasons for the appearance of the stagflation was substantial market uncertainty, which led to a market failure. The theoretical analysis is based on the Newbery-Stiglitz model of futures trading. This reveals that, in the presence of huge price variations a market is likely to fail if a substantial backwardation accompanies negative correlation between prices and quantities. The empirical evidence consists of testing market efficiency (weak and semi-strong forms) and the rational expectations hypothesis for the Polish consumption market and inflation in the period of shortageflation. It is found that the market survives the tests for weak efficiency but fails the test for semi-strong efficiency and rational expectations.     

Competition among physicians, revisited

Ten years ago we developed a model of demand inducement in the physician services market and explored the properties of that model. We found that predictions concerning physicians' prices, workloads, and income were ambiguous and in many cases were consistent with those derived from a standard monopoly pricing model. Spurred in part by our work, numerous empirical studies of the demand inducement model have been conducted. These studies found little evidence of demand inducement for primary care physician services. Demand inducement may exist in the market for surgical services, but its extent is less than previously estimated. We disagree with those who say that physicians generate demand to avoid price controls and that national health care spending is proportional to the number of physicians; the evidence does not support these arguments. Substantial uncertainty may surround the physician's choice of diagnosis and treatment mode. However, this does not imply a breakdown of the agency relationship. In this paper we extend our earlier model of demand inducement to include variations in the quantity of services (which was previously assumed to be less than socially ideal). Using the model, we conclude that the major objection to government price setting is not that physicians will get around the controls by inducing demand; rather, price controls result in a quantity and quality of physicians' services that is not ideal and may be inferior to those provided in an unregulated monopoly.     

MERCOSUR enlargement: predicting the effects on trade in primary agricultural commodities

This article estimates the effects of a hypothetical enlargement of the Mercado Común del Sur (MERCOSUR), depicted by granting MERCOSUR associate member countries a full membership status, on trade in primary agricultural commodities. The empirical investigation is implemented through the multiplicative form of the gravity model. The estimated gravity parameters are used to carry out scenarios that predict the effects of MERCOSUR enlargement on trade in primary agricultural commodities. The predictions reveal that MERCOSUR enlargement would generate significant increases in exports from the full members to the associate members. The predictions also show relatively smaller increases in exports from the associate members to the full members (in value terms), but some important increases in trade among the associate members. Trade diversion effects of MERCOSUR enlargement, which influence trade between full members and from non-member countries to full and associate members, are found to be limited.     

Community control and pricing patterns of nonprofit hospitals: An antitrust analysis

Traditional control of nonprofit hospitals by the communities they serve has been offered as justification for restraining antitrust enforcement of mergers that involve nonprofit hospitals. The community is arguably a constraint on a nonprofit's inclination to exercise market power in the form of higher prices; however, community control is likely to be attenuated for hospitals that through merger or acquisition become members of hospital systems--particularly those that operate on a regional or multiregional basis. We report findings from a study in which we examined empirically the relationship between market concentration and pricing patterns for three types of nonprofit hospitals that are distinguishable based on degree of community control: an independent hospital, a member of a local hospital system, and a member of a nonlocal hospital system. Study results indicated that when conditions existed to create a more concentrated market, (1) all three types of nonprofit hospitals exercised market power in the form of higher prices, and (2) hospitals that were members of nonlocal systems were more aggressive in exercising market power than were either independent or local system hospitals. The results have important implications for antitrust enforcement policy.     

上海证券市场波动性现状与卖空交易机制建立

在金融市场微观结构理论分析框架下,交易机制的变革以市场质量为评判基准.运用相关模型的实证研究表明,上海证券市场存在着较为明显的波动聚集、波动持续现象,市场整体波动性较大.根据卖空机制的制度功能分析,卖空限制的存在增加了该市场的波动性水平,降低了市场质量,因此有必要在该市场建立卖空交易机制以降低其波动性水平,在建立模式的选择上可以参照香港建立证券登记结算公司模式的卖空机制.     

Clearing and Settlement of Derivatives: Is a Code of Conduct Advisable?

This article is a first step to assess whether a self‐regulatory ‘Code of Conduct’, which has been in effect for European equities, should also be extended to derivatives. The aim of the code is to increase competition and customer choice in the European transaction process (trading, clearing and settlement). The article examines whether such a code is advisable for derivatives by evaluating potential market failures and inefficiencies in European derivatives markets. More specifically, the article: a) highlights the main differences in the clearing and settlement procedures of derivatives versus equities; b) outlines current and alternative market infrastructures in derivatives post‐trade markets; and c) evaluates the current level of competition among derivatives exchanges and also between the on‐ and off‐exchange trading segments. The article concludes that if imminent initiatives taken to increase the competitiveness of over‐the‐counter (OTC) derivatives markets vis‐à‐vis the incumbent derivatives exchanges—such as increased clearing house usage and new entry of multilateral trading facilities—are not effective in the near future, a code of conduct could be envisaged. This should entail promoting faster automation of OTC post‐trade processes and ensuring price comparability is maintained between derivatives exchanges.     

Arms Prices and Conflict Onset: Insights from Lebanon and Syria

What drives the prices of arms and ammunition sold at illicit markets? Do the prices of illegal arms soar during episodes of marked insecurity, such as conflict onset? This article seeks to advance knowledge on the dynamics and determinants of weapons prices through the quantitative analysis of illicit arms market price data in Lebanon for the period February 2011 to September 2012. The article also examines the relationship between arms and ammunition prices in Lebanon, and reported conflict fatalities in Syria, as the period under study overlapped with the onset of conflict in the latter country. Key results include strong, statistically-significant correlations between the prices of arms and the prices of ammunition in Lebanon, as well as between the prices of arms and ammunition in Lebanon and reported conflict fatalities in neighbouring Syria. These findings highlight the value of monitoring illicit arms market prices, including prices for a diverse range of weapons and ammunition, to improve our understanding of both illicit markets and conflict dynamics. The strong correlations observed in the article also suggest that crowdsourcing methodologies used by organisations monitoring killings during the Syrian conflict can effectively capture variations in conflict intensity over time.     

An Application of Rating Conjoint Analysis to Study the Importance of Quality-, Access- and Price-attributes to Health Care Consumers

Outside the health care sector, consumer preferences have been effectively studied using rating and ranking conjoint techniques. In the health care sector this technique has received less attention than its choice-based variant. Applications of rating and ranking method to health care issues are few. This paper presents an application of rating conjoint analysis to study the importance of quality, access and price to the health care consumers in Bulgaria. The paper first describes the rating conjoint method and its distinctive features compared to the choice-based and the ranking approach. The method is illustrated by the rating conjoint design applied in the study. Next, the impact of different quality-, access- and price-levels on the rating of physician profiles is analysed and the differences between the socio-demographic groups are examined. The results suggest that similar to other countries, the quality of care is a highly valued characteristic in Bulgaria, whereas access is perceived as less important. The considerable importance of patient payments further implies that Bulgarians are responsive to prices in the health care sector, especially the elderly, the village dwellers and the lowest income groups. The relevance of the results with regards to health policy and planning, as well as with regards to the methodology of rating conjoint analysis is discussed at the end of the paper.     

Differential inflation,Phillips curves,and price competitiveness in a new euro-member country

This article analyzes the inflation process before and after a new country with a middle-income joined the eurozone. It starts with comparative price level gaps in the European single market and with a reformulated basic macroeconomic model for a country adopting the euro. The inflation process in Slovenia is analyzed with the Phillips curve. The Phillips curve before adoption of the euro is a classical equation with the NAIRU and the nominal exchange rate as a control variable. It was expected that the Phillips curve would have to be modified after the euro was adopted. The Phillips curve after the euro was adopted should take into account the initial comparative price level gap, the law of one price, and the Balassa effect. The result is higher differential inflation; that is, national inflation is higher compared with the rate in the eurozone. Differential inflation may have a detrimental effect on export-driven catch-up growth. Instruments for taming inflationary pressure could include a higher unemployment rate and lower growth of labour unit costs.     

Exploring the Impact of Agricultural Price and Trade Policy Reform under Transition in Albania

Agricultural policy decision making in economies undergoing transition to market is in need of empirical tools for assessing the impact of alternative policy options. The econometric means available for such exercise, however, are limited for lack of data and structural breaks in economic behaviour. Synthetic, partial equilibrium, multi-market models offer a potential alternative. Such models have been used extensively, even in advanced economies, to offer valuable insights on the impact of alternative policy options. This paper shows the use of such a partial equilibrium, multi-market, synthetic-type model as a tool for agricultural policy analysis in a country in transition. The model is applied for Albania, a predominantly agricultural country that, after a period of centralism and autarky, aims to re-join the international economic system. The model, albeit its many limitations, offers some useful insights on the impact of alternative options available for agricultural price and trade policy.     

Mergers and difference-in-difference estimator: Why firms do not increase prices?

Difference-in-difference methods are being increasingly used to analyze the impact of mergers on pricing and other market equilibrium outcomes. Using evidence from an exogenous merger between two retail gasoline companies in a specific market in Spain, this paper shows how concentration did not lead to a price increase. In fact, the conjectural variation model concludes that the existence of a collusive agreement before and after the merger accounts for this result, rather than the existence of efficient gains. This result may explain empirical evidence reported in the literature according to which mergers between firms do not have significant effects on prices.     

“Monetary” rules for a linked system of offset credits

Three dominant issues have historically plagued climate negotiations: How to bypass issues of sovereignty, generate sufficient climate finance, and establish an agreement that is inclusive of the current major polluters. These issues are prevalent within the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) under the Kyoto Protocol, and the CDM has provided policy makers with a useful starting point to understanding how offset credits can be utilised within a post-Kyoto framework. The primary aim of this research is to investigate how project-based offset credits generated by states would interact within a linked framework using monetary rules and exchange rates. The examination of a linked system, specifically, was owing to the structure of the proposed agreement to be finalised in Paris at COP 21 where nationally determined contributions would be submitted by each state, allowing for the possibility of linked domestic carbon market mechanisms. The certified emission reduction credits of the CDM were used as a model to investigate the trade of offset credits within a linked system which act as a unique climate currency of each domestic offset credit mechanism. These offset credits could be earned through the implementation of domestic projects or projects hosted in other states. From this research, we conclude that fixed exchange rates are more stable than flexible exchange rates in a climate currency framework. Fixed exchange rates reduce losses of capital (owing to uncertainty in the markets) and the prominence of asymmetric spatial price transmission associated with fiat offset credit prices. To encourage co-operation between developing and developed countries, it is recommended that a combination of currency area theory and trade blocs be implemented as opposed to a currency union. Currency areas are the most viable option as they maintain that the domestic offset credit mechanism is under the control of the state and retains a level of stability as individual state offset credit prices are fixed to the same price. Even though this research forms the basis for a new climate policy architecture, the overall effectiveness of the policy will be determined by the selection of appropriate discount schemes, increased participation and agreement by states, and most significantly, political will.     

“讨价还价”的背后——对现行市场销售模式的法理批判

当今,讨价还价已经成为市场销售的主要模式。讨价还价虽然与自愿和公平有联系,但并不反映自愿与公平;相反,讨价还价与欺诈联系在一起。从效率的角度看,讨价还价也不能反映真实的市场供需关系;相反,它极大地增加了市场的交易成本以及政府的决策成本和管理成本,也抑制了供应商的生产积极性。商品的价格不只是人与自然的关系,更反映了人与人之间的关系,因此,商品价格的确定就不只在于效率,更在于公平。商品价格的公平性就在于成本加合理利润,因此,成本与利润信息的充分披露可以保证消费者在讨价还价中免于欺诈。集团购买以及标准合同也在一定程度可以弥补消费者讨价还价能力的不足。而作为消除讨价还价的销售模式最为有效也最为现实的办法,莫过于以明码实价的方式代替明码标价的规定。对此,政府的价格调控措施必须有所作为。     

Networking and Knowledge Transfer Between Research and Industry in Transition Countries: Empirical Evidence from the Slovenian Innovation System

Using empirical data from an innovation survey carried out in the Republic of Slovenia in 1997/1998, the paper analyses the innovation-relevant co-operation pattern between different kinds of research institutes and industry. The hypothesis is made that system transformation is not yet accomplished in Slovenia, and that the innovation system is still fragmented. While there is intense co-operation between Slovenian research institutes and companies, the level of co-operation between university institutes and industrial firms remains below the average of all Slovenian research institutes, although one focal point in the co-operation activities of university institutes is the support of firms in market introduction. Mainly larger institutes co-operate with larger firms, whereas small institutes hardly co-operate. Consequently, the challenge of innovation policy is to integrate all participants of the Slovenian innovation system in a structure of mutual knowledge and information exchange.     

How consumer information curtails market power in the funeral industry

Based on the French market, the purpose of this article is to show that contrary to common opinion in France about the impossibility of having a deregulation of the business of funeral services without observing abuses of many locally dominant suppliers, improvement in consumer information, along with the entry of a special storing facility service (“chambre funéraire”), imposes enough competitive pressure on the various suppliers, especially the former monopolist. With a Discrete Choice Experiment implemented in Lyon, France, we find evidence that even in this very emotionally charged market, consumer behavior has changed in favor of a better assessment of the different possibilities of services supplied and of their relative prices (e.g., high price elasticities). We also implement simulations in local markets and show that with good consumer information the market power of supposedly dominant firms is far less important than generally believed. Lastly, simulations stress the procompetitive effects of any business setting up a new storing facility.