日本在国际气候谈判中的立场转变及原因分析

日本是国际气候谈判的主要参与国家之一,在美国退出《京都议定书》的情况下日本最终选择批准议定书,让国际社会对作为京都会议东道国的日本在关键时刻表现出的担当态度赞赏有加。然而《京都议定书》的第一承诺期还未过去,日本就对《京都议定书》的未来表现出消极态度。文章试图分析日本在国际气候谈判中的立场由积极转变为不积极的原因,并在此基础上提出日本的谈判态度对国际气候谈判的启示。     

全球气候治理中的中国与欧盟:理念、行动、分歧与合作

本文通过比较中国和欧盟在全球气候治理中的理念和行动,分析双方之间存在的分歧以及合作前景。笔者认为,自《京都议定书》生效以来,中欧的全球气候治理理念都处于变化中。中国从之前被动地接受"治理",到积极地参与国际机制,甚至主动提出治理方案,如南南合作。而中国近期提出的"自主国家贡献"目标更是对促成2015年的巴黎气候谈判释放出积极的信号。欧盟利用话语权和气候外交的优势,在引领气候治理向着自己意愿方向发展的同时,逐渐成为分化发展中国家阵菅的"推手"。中欧尽管在"共同但有区别的责任"原则上存在着严重分歧,但双方的合作空间却在不断扩大。这是因为中国不断提高自身参与气候治理的合作意愿和合作能力,而欧盟也愿意以更温和的态度与包括中国在内的新兴大国在全球气候治理上展开合作。     

欧盟气候援助政策:演进、构建及趋势

气候援助是国际气候谈判体系的重要组成部分。基于"共同但有区别的责任"原则,发达国家应通过提供资金及技术以支持发展中国家应对和适应气候变化已经成为国际共识。欧盟作为气候谈判的积极参与者之一,是当今世界最大的气候融资来源方,对国际气候援助具有关键性的影响。外交战略层面的欧盟气候援助以推动可持续发展及能力建设为目标,在政策构建中重视发展联盟关系、多元化途径设计并强调向技术倾斜。当前欧盟气候援助尚存在诸多桎梏,未来的气候援助将出现向主要缔约方施压以求责任分担、进一步减少公共财政比例、注重项目评估与监督等趋势。     

欧盟后哥本哈根气候政策的变化及其影响

哥本哈根气候大会是欧盟气候政策发展中的分水岭。在后哥本哈根气候时代，欧盟应对气候变化的政治意愿大大降低，并且越来越注重国际气候承诺的落实和现实主义气候外交手段的运用。欧盟气候政策的这些变化与国际气候格局的转型、欧盟塑造国际气候机制方式所面临的挑战、欧盟内部气候政治的新发展以及国际经济危机的持续蔓延等一系列内外因素密切相关。作为国际气候领域的领导者和国际气候规则的主要制定者之一，欧盟后哥本哈根气候政策的变化对欧盟自身、未来国际气候机制的构建以及中国也将产生很大的影响。然而鉴于欧盟气候政策的变化尚未尘埃落定，因此其产生的影响仍有待进一步观察。     

中国参与国际气候谈判的立场演变

中国参与国际气候谈判的历程是同期中国整体外交的缩影,其立场演变经历了被动却积极参与、谨慎保守参与以及活跃开放参与三个发展阶段,且每个阶段气候谈判立场的演变都有着内在的决定因素。气候外交作为中国整体外交的一部分,深刻反映了中国外交日趋成熟的发展进程。     

哥本哈根谈判进程和中美碳外交的发展

巴厘路线图出台后,全球气候变化谈判格局酝酿着深刻变化。进程将尽的哥本哈根谈判也面临大国关系复杂交错的分化与组合。其间中美经由碳外交建立起来的双边协调和互动关系,促使美国试图争取掌握应对气候变化国际谈判格局的主动权,亦促使中国试图继续赢得应对气候变化的国际均势。我们必须对中美共治的幻象有清醒的认识,警惕美国在气候变化问题上绑架中国。全球气候变化谈判格局不可能适用中美共治的模式,而会通过大国之间的合作,促进多边协调的框架机制完善发展。     

体制与能力:试析美国气候外交的二元影响因素

在推动全球气候变化治理的进程中,美国政府遭遇了体制与能力的二元困境:既要平衡体制内部的矛盾,融合地方和党派的分歧,达成政治妥协;又要提高谈判能力,以主导气候变化谈判机制建设,垄断话语权和发展空间分配权。因此,在全球气候变化治理中出现了一种矛盾现象:一方面,美国在全球治理谈判进程中拥有强大的谈判能力;另一方面,由美国的体制衍生而来的分化消极态度极大约束了其在气候外交和全球谈判的手脚。本文试图从美国的体制和能力两个维度来分析这一现象,认为美国强大的谈判能力和日趋分化的决策体制之间的失衡将不可避免地促使其在全球气候环境治理中的领导地位不断下降。美国气候外交在不同的时期表现有所差异,不能将其简单归因于政党政治和利益集团或者执政党领袖等因素,而是美国体制问题和谈判能力二元互动的产物。     

前行中的困顿:京都时代与后京都时代的俄罗斯气候环境外交

2010年底的坎昆会议见证了气候谈判的紧张程度,各国出于各自的利益考虑,艰难地达成了两项应对气候变化的决议,推动气候谈判进程继续向前。京都议定书的第一阶段即将结束,未来的环境合作如何进行,仍旧是一个变数。作为气候环境领域的一个参与者,俄罗斯的作用不可低估。但是,俄罗斯的气候环境外交却显示出矛盾的特色,这不仅表现在签署京都议定书的立场上前后变化较大,而且表现在俄罗斯政府对温室气体减排的态度上。从京都时代和后京都时代的转型过程看,俄罗斯气候环境外交的特点可以概括为"断裂与延续",即断裂的立场和连续的利益战略,国内国际的分离与一致,单边与多边的断裂与全球领导的一致性。这些因素长期影响着俄罗斯气候环境外交的思维,并呈现出前行中困顿的状态。     

一步之遥:国家管辖外区域海洋生物多样性谈判分歧与前景展望

国家管辖范围以外区域海洋生物多样性(BBNJ)的养护和可持续利用问题的国际谈判已经进入关键阶段。在2022年8月结束的第五次政府间谈判中,各国代表团开始就一些议题进行妥协,谈判呈现一些新的特点。尽管各方仍在诸多议题上存在分歧,但多数国家对这些分歧持灵活态度,真正难以协调的实质性分歧事项在减少。与中国国家利益密切相关,且可能会影响下一次谈判能否顺利达成协定的分歧,主要包括海洋遗传资源的货币化惠益分享、划区管理工具的识别与争议海域、决策机制以及争端解决程序等四大议题。对于中国来说,目前BBNJ国际协定案文草案中的部分条款尚不能有效地兼顾我国国家利益,下一次谈判还面临很大的压力。     

欧盟气候话语权建构及对中国的借鉴北大核心CSSCI

中国国际关系学界现有研究成果涉及了气候政治因素,但对当前兴起的气候话语权争夺态势的研究还远远不足,集中于系统解析欧盟气候话语权建构机制的成果更是缺少。在国际气候话语权争夺战中,欧盟凭借其先发优势,通过气候话语的语篇叙述、句式选择、概念创新构建了欧盟在气候领域的话语权力,值得各国学者进行深入研究。本文分为三个部分,第一部分解析冷战后欧美在国际气候话语权领域的博弈态势;第二部分结合相关理论解读欧盟气候话语权的建构机制;第三部分是谈对中国的借鉴意义。     

The rise of BASIC in UN climate change negotiations

This paper assesses the role of the BASIC countries — Brazil, South Africa, India, and China — in UN climate change negotiations. The paper explores the formation and evolution of the group, and focuses on how the four major developing countries of China, India, Brazil, and South Africa have coordinated their positions and acted jointly to achieve an agreed outcome with other players in the recent UN Climate Change Conferences in Copenhagen and Cancun, based on an analysis of their country profiles and negotiation positions on a wide range of climate issues. The paper argues that the emergence of the BASIC Group is a reflection of the ongoing power shift from EU–US agreement to BASIC–US compromise in UN climate negotiations since the early 1990s. The rise of BASIC also has its roots in recent global market dynamics and further reflects the power transformation in the economic dimension of the international system.     

全球环境治理“领导者”的蜕变:加拿大的案例

加拿大长期以来曾是西方发达国家中积极领导全球环境治理的典范,一度也是全球气候治理的积极参与者,但是近年来却俨然蜕变为气候谈判中的"拖后腿者"。发生这种转变的原因究竟是什么?本文通过国际和国内、政治与经济多个层面的分析发现,除了美国因素以外,加拿大国内的经济形势变化和政治体制是导致其战略变化的主要原因。20世纪90年代以来,油砂大规模开发和原油出口(特别是对美国的市场依赖),导致加拿大在气候变化问题上处于比较劣势;而相关利益集团的游说,正好与加拿大松散的联邦制等制度因素相结合,导致了加拿大气候政策的转向。从这个层面上看,经济利益的变化和政治决策制度特征共同成为决定国家气候或环境战略的主要因素。在某种程度上,这一案例也反驳了发达民主国家因其制度因素必然成为全球环境保护积极支持者的命题。     

Coercive Diplomacy: Israel,Transjordan and the UN—a Triangular Drama Revisited

The Arab states suffered humiliating defeats at the hands of Israel during the first Arab–Israeli war. Immediately following the war, Israel made brilliant and shrewd use of diplomacy to achieve its goals at the negotiating table, much as it had previously used armed force. Israel refused to negotiate with a united Arab negotiation team, preferring to isolate the states, picking them off one after the other. The Israeli–Transjordanian talks differed radically from the other armistice negotiations. Here, two parallel tracks were followed. At Rhodes, the two countries negotiated openly under UN auspices, while in Jerusalem and at King Abdullah's palace in Transjordan, representatives of the two countries held secret bilateral talks. Israel masterfully used the context of these talks to maximise its gains, using military operations to create ‘facts on the ground’, combined with direct coercion in the shape of blackmail, while taking full advantage of international power structures and abusing the trust that King Abdullah had placed in personal relations. The UN Acting Mediator, Ralph Bunche, was aware of the secret back channel, where the clearest cases of coercion took place. Physically and mentally exhausted by the protracted negotiations, he allowed the secret talks to progress despite his dislike of the outcome. The British government, at the time the protector of Transjordan, was unable to assist its client for fear of falling out with the USA, while the US government, in many ways the protector of Israel, maintained an equally ‘hands off’ stance because the talks concerned only an armistice, not a peace treaty. Already at this early stage in their relations, the power asymmetry between Israel and the Arab states was the main reason the parties could not arrive at a peaceful, sustainable solution. This article reinvestigates this diplomacy by using a combination of US, Israeli, British and UN archives, as well as the almost untouched Ralph Bunche diary.     

The Commonwealth in contemporary international relations

The Commonwealth functions in contemporary international relations as a ‘mini’ version of multilateralism, encompassing issues of geopolitics, the global economy, climate change, and human rights and democracy. While essentially an organisation of developing countries, it also includes the United Kingdom and the ‘old Dominions’. There is a particular focus on the role of small states, even though the Commonwealth also includes some very large developing countries. Apart from its global role, the Commonwealth can be significant in regional contexts where there is some concentration of Commonwealth members. The Commonwealth also has a role as a context for civil society organisations. The article provides an assessment of the role of the Commonwealth within these various settings.     

The New Offshore Frontiers of EU Energy Security in the Mediterranean: The Politics of Hydrocarbon Development in the Adriatic and Ionian Seas

Many EU Mediterranean countries are developing national plans for offshore hydrocarbon exploration and production. The transformation of the Mediterranean Sea into a new frontier for EU energy security has raised important concerns about the protection of the fragile marine ecosystem of this semi-enclosed sea. Additional issues have emerged where states’ boundaries at sea are not yet defined. This article analyses the emerging international and transnational politics of hydrocarbon development in the Adriatic and Ionian Seas by highlighting the main drivers and effects of the recent relaunch of offshore activities in this region.     

South Africa’s multiple faces in current climate clubs

Climate clubs emerged as a concept to revitalise the international climate change negotiations under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and mitigate the free-riding problem. The underlying idea suggests that countries committed to reducing emissions can advance a stable coalition in the form of a club with other countries. As a result, more countries would put forth targets for more ambitious emissions reductions. This article analyses South Africa’s memberships in current climate related clubs. We contextualise South African climate club governance in its wider geopolitical and national context of low-carbon development. The purpose of the analysis is to identify if and how South Africa can possibly contribute to advancing ambition for change within climate clubs. Furthermore, it advances ideas about possible design options for climate clubs that may appeal to developing countries.     

全球气候外交论析

气候外交是指国际社会围绕气候治理展开的外交活动。国际气候外交的行为主体十分广泛,包括联合国、主权国家和非政府组织等。国际气候外交对于抑制全球变暖十分重要,但当前的气候外交面临诸多难题。比如,气候外交遭遇到集体行动的难题,并常常被异化为谋取经济利益的权力外交等。中国的气候外交目前虽然取得一定成效,但在国际社会中仍然受到一定的质疑,影响了中国的国家形象。中国必须开展气候公共外交,并在国际责任与自身能力平衡的基础上积极参与全球气候治理。     

Climate change: Double-edged sword for African trade and development

Abstract

African governments face increasing pressure from major export destinations, primarily former colonial and slave-owning countries, to be climate change compliant. This will certainly be on display at the upcoming December 2009 United Nations Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen, which will seek to strengthen climate change rules agreed on in Kyoto, Japan, in 1997, and adopt new protocols on global climate change regulation. Climate change is a double-edged sword: on one side it is hitting Africa's agricultural sector with increased droughts, floods, extreme frost and wildfires; and on the other, African governments are being forced to respond to stringent regulatory regimes imposed by international export destinations. Currently, the per capita greenhouse gas emissions from the highly industrialised nations – the North – is estimated to be four times that of Africa and the rest of the developing world. Twin research questions were investigated in this article: (1) to what extent does climate change impact on African trade and development, and (2) how can African governments stay on a path of sustained trade and development in this era of climate change? The article argues that Africa's survival in these times of climate change compliance rests on a shift to greater intra-African trade, as individual nations move towards cleaner and more organic technologies to become full-fledged partners in the international climate change regulatory regime.