民族分裂主义及其治理模式研究

具有高度政治分离目标和主权诉求的民族分裂主义是导致国内、国际政治失序和政局动荡的重要因素。由于民族分裂主义不时出现在国际政治的发展进程中,不时搅动或重组原有的政治格局,因而抑制和应对民族分裂主义是必要的多民族国家治理功能。实现有效的民族分裂主义治理应当从分析民族分裂主义的特点和诱发机制起步。发生普遍、目标明确、诱因复杂、认同坚韧是民族分裂主义的特点。利用和强化族性认同、渲染政治主张、通过动员形成集体行动、获取外部支持等环节构成了民族分裂主义行动的诱发机制。因循民族分裂主义生成与发展的机理,从无条件捍卫主权的理路采取的严厉打击模式,从不同程度赋权的理路采取政治容留模式,从消减族性动员的理路采取认同调控模式,从抑制精英力量的理路采取柔性控制模式,从转化政治生态的理路采取外部干预模式,可成为多民族国家治理中的参考。     

STRUCTURES OF ETHNIC CONFLICT: REVOLUTION VERSUS SECESSION IN RWANDA AND SRI LANKA

A structural framework of ethnic politics is presented, contrasting the patterns of inter-ethnic relations found in ranked versus unranked systems of ethnic stratification. This framework allows us to account for why ethnic conflict erupts in some cases but not others, and why that conflict takes the form of ethnic revolution in some situations and ethnic separatism in others. This framework's explanatory utility is illustrated with a comparison of case studies: why ethnic separatism emerged in Sri Lanka while ethnic revolution occurred in Rwanda.     

Diplomatic communication theory: Signals,channels, networks

The analysis of international or diplomatic communication is approached at three levels: channels (viz, dyads), signals‐messages (viz. international events‐intents), and networks (viz. international systems). Diplomatic channel theory utilizes an interpretation of the classical Shannon‐Weaver communication model and outlines a statistical information analysis of international events signals with empirical examples. Analysis of international mediation suggests several counterintuitive problems in information processing at the channel level. Diplomatic network theory distinguishes between three different communication structures: one‐to‐one, one‐to‐group, and one‐to‐subgroup. Each communication structure at the network level has characteristic complexity and channel requirements. The presence of nonlinear phenomena at both channel and network levels is emphasized, as well as asymmetries between conflict and cooperative interactions at the signal level.     

The structure of the international telecommunications regime in transition: A network analysis of international organizations 1

This paper examines the structure of the international telecommunications regime in terms of networks of social interaction and institutional affiliation among international actors. Social interaction and overlapping membership data of 69 international telecommunications organizations in the Yearbook of International Organizations 1994/1995 are analyzed to describe the social structure of the international telecommunications system through network analysis. The analysis reveals a center‐periphery structure with the Western industrial countries at the center and the less developed countries at the periphery. The international telecommunications system is also regionally structured suggesting influence by geopolitical and cultural proximity. The results indicate that inter‐governmental global organizations such as the ITU and UNESCO play intermediate and coordinating roles at the central linking‐pin positions (or cut‐points) in the international telecommunications regime. In summary, this research shows that transitional trends in international telecommunications have affected the interaction patterns of international actors.     

The economic community of West African states,the defence of democracy in Sierra Leone and future prospects

The wave of democratization in the 1990s has brought considerable challenges and opportunities for post‐cold war Africa. One such challenge is the democratic intervention of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) under the aegis of the multilateral intervention force, ECOMOG, to restore a democratic government and constitutional order. The ECOWAS democratic intervention in the West African state of Sierra Leone can be located in a wider debate about international dimensions of democratization. In several respects, it also reflects the changing nature of international politics in the post‐cold war period particularly with regards to certain traditional norms of international society, namely non‐intervention and state sovereignty. The ECOWAS democratic efforts in Sierra Leone demonstrate that it is increasingly becoming acceptable for regional and international organisations to ‘defend’ democracy, albeit under the auspices of forcible as well as non‐forcible humanitarian intervention. However, these kinds of external intervention on behalf of democracy have in most cases led to its retrenchment. This article therefore critically assesses how the nature of domestic politics led to the suspension of democracy in Sierra Leone, the domestic and international implications of the ECOWAS defence of democracy there and the country's post‐conflict democratic prospects.     

Estimating between‐ and within‐cluster covariate effects,with an application to models of international disputes

Students of international politics often use data in which the covariates vary both within and across units of observation. This is particularly true for dyadic data, which has come to dominate quantitative studies of international conflict, but is also a concern in any work involving a time‐series cross‐sectional component. Standard regression methods treat both types of covariates as equivalent with respect to their influence on the dependent variable, ignoring possible differences between cross‐dyad and within‐dyad effects. Here, I discuss the potential pitfalls of this approach, and show how between‐ and within‐dyad effects can be separated and estimated. I then illustrate the approach in the context of a logistic regression, using data on international disputes.     

An Assessment of Future Patterns of Security in Central Asia

Since the disintegration of the Soviet Union in the early 1990s, various social problems left over have emerged in some Central Asian states, thus threatening social stability in the region. Under globalization, the former Soviet republics in Central Asia have made great efforts to develop constructive relations with others in the hope of strengthening their security. However, the threat of terrorism, extremism and separatism still exists. These non-traditional security issues play a role in current international politics, and the countries in the region are trylng to meet new challenges.     

Symbolic reflections of the environmental crisis: Some International Implications

In the present age of burgeoning population growth, world‐wide famine, worsening energy crises, and natural resource depletion, two realizations have become evident: the earth's resources are finite; and the world community is very interdependent. This finity, the interrelatedness, and their implications for the global environment can be studied by using three models: (1) the environmental crisis model, depicting the impact linkages between crisis areas; (2) an international feedback model, illustrating possible repercussions on the international political system if restorative‐preventive environmental measures are procrastinated; and (3) the United Nations machinery model, setting out the functional apparatus designed to deal with the eco‐crisis on a global scale.

We have reached an environmental cross‐roads‐a time for deliberate decision‐making and policy implementation. We must accomplish a readjustment of social, economic, and technical priorities and perspectives‐in short, a functional approach where national governments and international organizations act in concert to restore and safeguard the human environment.     

Dominance and dependence in an international context

Bargaining power in an international system should, theoretically at least, be closely associated with the pattern of international transactions. In the literature, this consideration has often been linked to the polar concepts of dominance and dependence. A methodology is developed in this paper for evaluating the degree to which a state dominates the transactions of some other state. Specifically, a series of international transaction behaviors both of a cooperative and conflicting nature are examined for 15 Middle East nations and the Big Four. Inter‐nation dominance and dependence are then defined with respect to each transactional behavior, and the information is summarized by a principal components factor analysis of the flow‐structure matrix. Two salient dimensions are identified and aggregate measures of dyadic relationships are calculated. Given the international situation which existed in the Middle East at the time in question, a thoroughly plausible dominance/dependence profile is developed.     

Data development for international research—Phase I: International conflict and national characteristics

In 1986 developers and users of quantitative data in international and comparative politics organized to maintain, extend, and develop major datasets and to provide a stronger basis for coordinating data‐related activities. National Science Foundation funding established for a three‐year period Data Development for International Research. Its first phase (DDIR‐I) focused on improving datasets on both national capabilities and international conflict; and generating renewed efforts to better the data collections on internation events and international political economy. DDIR‐I's work, now virtually complete, augmented the quantity and quality of this national data resource and set the stage for another NSF‐funded project on internation event data (DDIR‐II). A final report on DDIR‐II is forthcoming in summer 1994.     

Hashim,Ahmed S. Insurgency and Counter-insurgency in Iraq

The paper argues that violent Uighur separatism and terrorism conforms in a number of important respects to the human security theory of terrorism, particularly in the realm of political and civil rights. However, it argues that impetus has been given to the various separatist organisations in the region by the development of interconnections between the largely internal aspects of China's policy of integration in the region and the wider Central and South Asian dynamic of Islamic radicalism since 1990.     

Transnationalizing democracy promotion: The role of Western political foundations and think‐tanks

Promoting democracy has developed into a common activity performed by a variety of actors in the post‐cold war world. While it is states and international institutions that receive most of the attention devoted to this increasingly important issue‐area, other non‐state actors also engage in democracy promotion. This article examines the activities of two such actors: political foundations ‐ quasi‐governmental organizations established in a number of advanced states ‐ and think‐tanks ‐ private institutions traditionally engaged in research and policy advocacy. It argues that the role and impact of these actors deepen the transnationalization of democracy promotion, which has important consequences for the international politics of democratization and international relations more generally.     

Issue definition and two‐level negotiations: An application to the American foreign policy process

This article builds on the two‐level games and international negotiation literatures and shows how the use of an issue typology can shed light on the nature of the interactions between domestic political forces and international negotiations. This is done by presenting four foreign policy process models illustrating that the decision‐making process varies depending on the type of issue that is involved in a particular situation. The varying structure and nature of the process affects the range of the domestic level win‐set and hinders or aids the achievement of international agreement depending on which model is in play. Although the focus in this article is on the American foreign policy process, the argument is generic to the broader theoretical development of the two‐level games approach because similar, but country‐specific, decision‐making models can be developed for use in the study of non‐American foreign policy. Such generalizations build on recent work focusing on the impact of state structure on the foreign policy process and its outcomes.     

菲南和平进程的回顾与思考

为了和平解决菲南穆斯林分离主义问题，菲律宾政府与穆斯林反政府武装“摩洛民族解放阵线”先后签署两个和平协议，与“摩洛伊斯兰解放阵线”也进行了长时间的和平谈判，但仍未实现菲南的和平。原因在于菲律宾政府与穆斯林组织在实现和平的目标方面存在重大分歧；双方已签署的和平协议未能成功实施，削弱了人们对和平进程的信心；此外，也未能形成一个达成和实施和平协议的有利环境。     

Defining international terrorism: A pragmatic approach

One of the fundamental problems in addressing the phenomenon of international terrorism is that despite a plethora of scholarly work and more than thirty years of inter‐governmental discourse there is still no commonly accepted definition of international terrorism. Existing definitions tend to fall into two broad categories academic and political. Contemporary academic definitions of international terrorism are primarily designed to fit incidents into various statistical models. They are often lengthy, over‐complicated and defy common usage. Governmental definitions of international terrorism tend to be ambiguous to allow the most politically convenient interpretation of events. This paper takes a pragmatic look at the ongoing definitional dilemma in the study of international terrorism. Drawing upon both sides of the definitional spectrum, it charts a middle course arguing for a more lucid and functional definition of terrorism based on primary characteristics which distinguish international terrorism from other types of violence.     

Eugene: A conceptual manual

The study of international relations using quantitative analysis relies, in part, on the availability of comprehensive and easily manipulable data sets. To execute large‐n statistical tests of hypotheses, data must be available on the variables of interest, and those data must be manipulated into a suitable format to allow the inclusion of appropriate control variables as well as variables of central theoretical interest This paper introduces software designed to eliminate many of the difficulties commonly involved in constructing large international relations data sets, and with the unavailability of data on expected utility theories of war.

In order to solve these two problems, we developed EUGene (the Expected Utility Generation and Data Management Program). EUGene is a stand‐alone Microsoft Windows based program for the construction of annual data sets for use in quantitative studies of international relations. It generates data for variables necessary to incorporate key variables from implementations of the so‐called “expected utility theory of war” into broader analyses of international conflict EUGene is also designed to make building international relations data sets simple. It accomplishes this by automating a variety of tasks necessary to integrate several data building blocks commonly used in tests of international relations theories.     

Structures of influence and cooperation‐conflict

This paper outlines a structural approach to the analysis of patterns of influence and amity‐enmity in international politics. Structure is defined as a set of relations between pairs of social units, which justifies the use of graph theory to represent structures. Graph theoretical models of international structure are explored—one for each of the two types of relations. The author devises some typologies and observes changing structures. A tendency toward hierarchy in influence structures and toward bipolarization in cooperation‐conflict structures is discussed. It is hypothesized that high degrees of hierarchy and polarization are inimical to international peace. The graph theoretical studies yield intuitively reasonable results and the models appear to be useful in making several concepts of international relations theory more precise.     

Summit diplomacy of the seventeenth century: William III and Peter I in Utrecht and London, 1697–98

This article evaluates the meetings of the Russian Tsar Peter I and the English King William III in 1697–98 as the high point of Russia's 18‐month Great Embassy to western Europe. The emphasis is on the diplomatic aspects of Anglo‐Russian summits as well as on their results for international relations and diplomacy in Europe with particular focus on dramatic changes in Russia's attitude to international cooperation. Reform of Russian diplomatic machinery, enacted by Peter I as a follow‐up of his European journey, were as well to a great degree motivated by his personal contacts with William III and his English and Dutch diplomatic advisors. Based on British and Russian archival sources, the article attempts to prove that Anglo‐Russian summitry, and, in the first place, the rendezvous in Utrecht (1 September 1697, old style), signified Russia's intention to acquiesce to the raison d'etat principle in international relations and in practical diplomatic behaviour, thus abandoning religious and political prejudices that had kept Russians on the periphery of European diplomacy.     

The two faces of nation‐building: developing function and identity

Nation‐building is an age‐old process being implemented in new ways. It consists of two separate aspects: state‐building implemented by external actors and identity‐building implemented by grassroots actors within the state itself. However, a functioning state is a necessary precondition for identity‐building because it allows for the development of a civic identity that can incorporate group identities and create a shared sense of community. When a unifying and legitimate state structure is absent, group identifications will remain strong and counteract internal efforts at nation‐building. Unfortunately, the record of nation‐building when understood as both state‐ and identity‐building is relatively poor. The failure of international efforts to create stable states inhibits development of a civic identity and reinforces fragmentation. That in turn brings the longevity of the state into question by raising the possibility that dissatisfied groups will again turn to violence. Learning how to develop both aspects of nation‐building more effectively is an important challenge for international actors.     

The domestic politics of international negotiations: The effects of state structures and policy making processes

Putnam's metaphor of a two‐level game that state representatives play when they face the dual constraints of international bargaining and domestic pressures has been applied across different political systems. This paper argues that it is important to take into account differences in state structures and political processes in the study of international negotiations. That state structures and processes are important has become a common theme in current research on foreign policy, decision making, and international conflict. Building on this literature, this study involves a meta‐analysis of existing case studies of two‐level games. The previously completed cases provide evidence of variation in the characteristics of two‐level games. Independent measures of the institutional structures of the states involved in the set of case studies are collected from the POLITY III dataset. Hypotheses on how differences in state structures might influence the characteristics of two‐level bargaining are then examined. The study finds that differences in state structures do influence the dynamics of two‐level games. Some of the results support the conventional wisdom on this relationship, while other results suggest counter‐intuitive insights. A framework conceptualizing state characteristics at three levels is proposed for future research.