Evaluation of the (hu)MANid program for sex and ancestry estimation in a diverse,contemporary CT scan-based sample

Human remains from forensic and bioarcheological contexts are often fragmentary, requiring methods for estimating a forensic profile that are based upon limited skeletal features. In 2017, Berg and Keryhercz created an online application, (hu)MANid, that provides sex and ancestry estimation from mandibular morphoscopic traits and linear measurements. In this study, we examine the utility of the (hu)MANid application in a diverse, urban US adult sample (aged 20–45; n = 143) derived from computed tomography (CT) scans. We secondarily conduct a preliminary analysis of the program's utility in a sample of adolescents (aged 15–17; n = 40). Six morphoscopic, and eleven morphometric traits were recorded as directed by the literature associated with the (hu)MANid program. Percent correct classification and posterior predictive values were calculated for the sex and ancestry estimations output by the program; chi-squared tests were employed to compare self-reported and predicted ancestry. In the adult sample, sex was accurately predicted for 75.52% of the sample. Ancestry prediction, however, was less favorable ranging from 19.3% to 50% correct. For the adolescent sample, correct sex estimation (45%) did not surpass what could occur by chance alone, though ancestry prediction fared better than in the larger adult sample (percent correct prediction overall average: 47.5%, range 35.71%–71.43%). The (hu)MANid application shows utility for use with CT scan-derived adult samples for sex estimation, but caution is warranted for ancestry estimation and use with samples that may not have reached full adult maturity.     

Formulae for Estimating Skeletal Height in Modern South‐East Asians

Estimating stature in human skeletal remains of Asian ancestry is problematic for forensic anthropologists due to the paucity and uncertain suitability of regression formulae. To address this issue, our study analyzed 64 individuals from a modern skeletal collection of South‐East Asian origin and developed population‐specific ordinary least squares regression formulae to estimate skeletal height from each of the long bones of the upper and lower limbs, as well as from trunk length. Results indicate that the most accurate estimates of skeletal height from a single bone (as measured by standard error of the estimate—SEE) are from tibial length in males (SEE = 2.40 cm) and from humeral length in females (SEE = 2.59 cm), followed by femoral length (SEE = 2.84 cm). When multiple elements are considered, the combination of femoral and tibial length yields the best estimates in both sexes as well as combined sex samples (male SEE = 2.40 cm; female SEE = 2.77 cm; combined sex SEE = 2.54 cm).     

A Test of Sex Estimation in Subadults Using the Elevation of the Auricular Surface from Four Samples of Known Age and Sex

Biological sex is foundational to the work of forensic anthropologists and bioarcheologists. The lack of reliable biological sex estimation methods for subadults has, thus, greatly limited forensic and bioarcheological analyses. Auricular surface elevation showed promise as a subadult sex estimation method in previous studies. This study examined two auricular surface elevation evaluation methods on four subadult samples of known age, sex, and ancestry. Samples were scored as “male,” “female,” or “indeterminate” and results were examined with chi‐square analysis. No consistent sex estimation pattern, accuracy, or predictive value was produced between samples. Only one test was significant using Fisher's exact test analysis (FET = 7.501, p < 0.022): the composite approach on the Hamann‐Todd sample. While age, sample size, or developmental factors may play a role in these results, clearly sample variation does as well. This study found auricular surface elevation was not a useful subadult sex estimation method.     

A Reappraisal of Developing Deciduous Tooth Length as an Estimate of Age in Human Immature Skeletal Remains

This study provides an update on a quantitative method for immature age estimation based on postnatal deciduous mandibular tooth length. Two known sex and age skeletal collections from Western Europe were sampled (n = 97). Linear regression models for age estimated were calculated for each individual tooth, each sex, and sex combined sample using classical calibration. Prediction errors, residuals, and percentage of individuals whose real age fell within the 95% prediction interval were calculated. The teeth which develop earlier in life, the incisors and the first molar, showed the greatest precision, while the canine showed the least. This method has greater applicability to archeological skeletons or to children in developing countries than for use in North American or European forensic contexts. The method can be applied to incomplete or poorly preserved remains of unknown sex, particularly when dental radiographs are not an option or when teeth have been removed from the alveolus or crypt.     

Development and Assessment of Postcranial Sex Estimation Methods for a Guatemalan Population

This study tests whether postcranial sex estimation methods generated from Hispanic, and mainly Mexican samples, can be successfully applied to other increasingly common migrant populations from Central America. We use a sample of postcranial data from a modern (1980s) Guatemalan Maya sample (n = 219). Results indicate a decrease in classification accuracies for previously established univariate methods when applied to the Guatemalan study sample, specifically for males whose accuracies ranged from 30 to 84%. This bias toward inaccuracies for Guatemalan males is associated with the smaller skeletal sizes for the Guatemalan sample as compared to the samples used in the tested sex estimation methods. In contrast, the tested multivariate discriminant function classification yielded less sex bias and improved classification accuracies ranging from 82 to 89%. Our results highlight which of the tested univariate and multivariate methods reach acceptable levels for accuracy for sex estimation of cases where the region of origin may include Guatemala.     

Nonmetric Cranial Trait Variation and Ancestry Estimation in Asian and Asian-Derived Groups

Traditionally, precontact Native Americans and Asian groups have been conflated for aspects of the biological profile due to their distantly shared genetic history, although this grouping remains largely unexplored. This study examines craniomorphic variability to ascertain whether Asian groups can be differentiated from each other and from Asian-derived groups using more fine-tuned models. Cranial and mandibular data for 35 nonmetric traits were recorded on precontact Native Americans (n = 150) and modern Japanese (n = 150) and Thai (n = 150) individuals. Chi-square analyses indicate that all groups exhibit statistically significant differences in most traits. Additionally, cross-validated binary logistic regression equations resulted in correct classification rates in the range of 65.0–93.3% and demonstrate that sex does not contribute to statistical models. Therefore, numerous traits provide discriminatory resolution that detects differences between the samples, thus highlighting the potential utility of nonmetric traits in identifying individuals beyond the traditional African, European, and Asian forensic ancestry groupings.     

Morphoscopic Trait Expression in “Hispanic” Populations

This study evaluates population variation of eight cranial morphoscopic traits using samples of known southwest Hispanics (n = 72), Guatemalans (n = 106), American Blacks (n = 146), and American Whites (n = 218). We applied the support vector machine (SVM) method to build a prediction model based on a subsample (20%) of the data; the remainder of the data was used as a test sample. The SVM approach effectively differentiated between the four groups with correct classification rates between 72% (Guatemalan group) and 94% (American Black group). However, when the Guatemalan and southwest Hispanic samples were pooled, the same model correctly classified all groups with a higher degree of accuracy (American Black = 96%; American White = 77%; and the pooled Hispanic sample = 91%). This study also identified significant differences between the two Hispanic groups in six of the eight traits using univariate statistical tests. These results speak to the unique population histories of these samples and the current use of the term “Hispanic” within forensic anthropology. Finally, we argue that the SVM can be used as a classification model for ancestry estimation in a forensic context and as a diagnostic tool may broaden the application of morphoscopic trait data for the assessment of ancestry.     

Ancestry Assessment Using Random Forest Modeling, ,

A skeletal assessment of ancestry relies on morphoscopic traits and skeletal measurements. Using a sample of American Black (n = 38), American White (n = 39), and Southwest Hispanics (n = 72), the present study investigates whether these data provide similar biological information and combines both data types into a single classification using a random forest model (RFM). Our results indicate that both data types provide similar information concerning the relationships among population groups. Also, by combining both in an RFM, the correct allocation of ancestry for an unknown cranium increases. The distribution of cross‐validated grouped cases correctly classified using discriminant analyses and RFMs ranges between 75.4% (discriminant function analysis, morphoscopic data only) and 89.6% (RFM). Unlike the traditional, experience‐based approach using morphoscopic traits, the inclusion of both data types in a single analysis is a quantifiable approach accounting for more variation within and between groups, reducing misclassification rates, and capturing aspects of cranial shape, size, and morphology.     

Sex Determination from the Frontal Bone: A Geometric Morphometric Study

Sex estimation in human skeletal remains when using the cranium through traditional methods is a fundamental pillar in human identification; however, it may be possible to incur in a margin of error due because of the state of preservation in incomplete or fragmented remains. The aim of this investigation was sex estimation through the geometric morphometric analysis of the frontal bone. The sample employed 60 lateral radiographs of adult subjects of both sexes (30 males and 30 females), aged between 18 and 40 years, with mean age for males of 28 ± 4 and 30 ± 6 years for females. Thin‐plate splines evidenced strong expansion of the glabellar region in males and contraction in females. No significant differences were found between sexes with respect to size. The findings suggest differences in shape and size in the glabellar region, besides reaffirming the use of geometric morphometrics as a quantitative method in sex estimation.     

The Optimized Summed Scored Attributes Method for the Classification of U.S. Blacks and Whites: A Validation Study

Recently, Hefner and Ousley (2014) introduced the optimized summed scored attributes (OSSA) method that maximizes between‐group differences in U.S. black and white populations by dichotomizing six cranial morphoscopic trait scores. This study tests OSSA using an independent skeletal sample (Hamann‐Todd, n = 208) and positively identified forensic cases (Mercyhurst University, n = 28, and New York City Office of Chief Medical Examiner, n = 38). An evaluation of trait frequencies suggests shifting the heuristically selected sectioning point separating U.S. black and white populations from ≤ 3 to ≤ 4. We found a total correct classification of 73.0% (B = 50.9%, W = 89.2%) using the originally suggested sectioning point of ≤3, while the total correct classification increases to 79.2% (B = 80.2%, W = 78.5%) with a modified sectioning point of ≤4. With the increased total correct classification and reduced classification bias between ancestry groups, we suggest the modified sectioning point of ≤4 be used when assessing ancestry in forensic unknowns.     

A Comparative Assessment of the Chen et al. and Suchey‐Brooks Pubic Aging Methods on a North American Sample, ,

Accurately estimating the age‐at‐death of adult human skeletons is fundamental in forensic anthropology. This study evaluates the accuracy of two pubic bone age estimation methods—Chen et al. and Suchey‐Brooks. Specimens were obtained from a known collection of modern pubic bones curated at the Maricopa County Forensic Science Center in Phoenix, Arizona. A sample of 296 left male pubic bones of European ancestry was statistically evaluated via bias, absolute mean error, and intra‐ and inter‐observer error. Results indicate that the two methods are similar; the Suchey‐Brooks method is the most accurate for aging young adults (error c. 7 years), while the Revised Chen et al. method is most accurate for aging middle‐age adults (error c. 6 years). Thus, the Chen et al. method is an important contribution to forensic anthropology for aging older adult skeletal remains. There are, however, some limitations such as subjectivity and the intricate scoring system of Chen et al. method.     

A Method for Estimating Sex Using the Clavicle,Humerus, Radius,and Ulna

Sex estimation from skeletal remains can be an important part of preliminary identification. The best source of information for estimating sex is the pelvis but it is not always available for analysis. For these cases, a probabilistic sex estimation method is presented using combinations of standard and alternative measurements of the clavicle, humerus, radius, and ulna. Various equations are developed that are not population specific and that are applicable in various recovery scenarios. The equations were tested using four independent samples (n > 370), including a forensic sample. Allocation accuracies vary by test sample and equation and are consistently good (87.4–97.5%) except for a sample of very small males that show the extreme effects of poverty and mortality bias. For many of the cases where allocation was incorrect, the probabilistic approach indicated that no confidence should be placed in the incorrect allocation and the unknown should be classified as sex indeterminate.     

Estimating Biological Characteristics With Virtual Laser Data

Laser scanning technology is increasingly being used in forensic anthropological research to obtain virtual data for archival purposes and post hoc measurement collection. This research compared the measurement accuracy of two laser scanners—the FARO Focus^3D 330X and the FARO Freestyle^3D—against traditionally obtained (i.e., by hand) control data (N = 454). Skeletal data were collected to address a novel question: the ability of laser scanning technology to produce measurements useful for biological characteristic estimation, such as sex and stature. Results indicate that both devices produced measurements very similar to control (c. 3‐mm average absolute error), but also illuminate a tendency to under‐measure. Despite these findings, the virtual data produced sex and stature estimates that varied little from control‐produced estimates, signifying the usefulness of virtual data for preliminary biological identification when the skeletal elements are no longer available for physical analysis.     

Sexual Dimorphism of Anterior Sacral Curvature

Abstract: This study assesses the predictive value of anterior sacral curvature for sex estimation from skeletonized remains. Sacra from a sample of 125 American adults of known age and sex were examined. Nine measurements describing anterior sacral curvature were used in the analysis. Statistical treatment of the data included univariate statistics and discriminant function analysis for sex classification. A bootstrap validation method was employed to assess the classification error rates. Sacral curvature was significantly greater in men than in women at the level of the S2–S3 and S3–S4 articulations (p < 0.05). Correct classification estimates for the discriminant function range from 66–72%. Although sexually dimorphic, metric observations of sacral curvature are not as reliable at predicting sex as other skeletal elements. Anterior sacral curvature should only be used for sex estimation in the absence of other, more reliable, indicators.     

Accuracy Rates of Ancestry Estimation by Forensic Anthropologists Using Identified Forensic Cases

A common task in forensic anthropology involves the estimation of the ancestry of a decedent by comparing their skeletal morphology and measurements to skeletons of individuals from known geographic groups. However, the accuracy rates of ancestry estimation methods in actual forensic casework have rarely been studied. This article uses 99 forensic cases with identified skeletal remains to develop accuracy rates for ancestry estimations conducted by forensic anthropologists. The overall rate of correct ancestry estimation from these cases is 90.9%, which is comparable to most research‐derived rates and those reported by individual practitioners. Statistical tests showed no significant difference in accuracy rates depending on examiner education level or on the estimated or identified ancestry. More recent cases showed a significantly higher accuracy rate. The incorporation of metric analyses into the ancestry estimate in these cases led to a higher accuracy rate.     

Epiphyseal Union of the Cervical Vertebral Centra: Its Relationship to Skeletal Age and Maturation of Thoracic Vertebral Centra

Epiphyseal union stages for cervical vertebral centra (ring epiphyses) were documented for 55 individuals (females and males, ages 14–27 years) from the Terry Collection, using the Albert and Maples method 1, to examine both its relationship to age at death and to thoracic data collected from the same individuals using the same method. Results showed a moderate correlation between cervical ring union and age (r = 0.63, p = 0.000), and a fairly low correlation between cervical and thoracic ring union (r = 0.41, p = 0.002). Paired samples t‐tests yielded a statistically significant difference between cervical and thoracic union mean values (p = 0.01). Union progressed earlier in cervical vertebrae and in females. Results indicated fairly substantial variation in both sexes. Findings may serve as a basic guideline for estimating a general age range at death for unknown skeletal remains and to corroborate findings from other skeletal age indicators.     

A Test of a Recently Devised Method of Estimating Skeletal Age at Death using Features of the Adult Acetabulum

Estimation of age at death from adult skeletal remains is highly problematic, due in great part to interpopulation variability in skeletal age changes. Thorough testing of aging methods is therefore of key importance. A method recently devised by Calce (Am J Phys Anthropol 148 (2012): 11–23) for placing adult skeletons into three broad age at death classes (17–39, 40–64, 65+ years) on the basis of acetabular morphology is tested on a collection of 18–19th century AD skeletons (N = 185) of documented age at death from London. Results showed that 45% were correctly assigned to age class using this method. This compares with 81% reported by Calce on 20th century North American material. This indicates significant interpopulation differences in the relationship between the Calce acetabular variables and age, even between populations of European ancestry. Until the sources of this variation are better understood, caution should be used before applying this method to estimate age in unknown skeletons.     

A Procedure for Calculating the Vertical Space Height of the Sacrum When Determining Skeletal Height for Use in the Anatomical Method of Adult Stature Estimation

Estimating stature from skeletonized remains is one of the essential parameters in the development of a biological profile. A new procedure for determining skeletal height (SKH) incorporating the vertical space height (VSH) from the anterior margin of the sacral promontory to the superior margins of the acetabulae for use in the anatomical method of stature estimation is introduced. Regression equations for stature estimation were generated from measurements of 38 American males of European ancestry from the William M. Bass Donated Skeletal Collection. The modification to the procedure results in a SKH that is highly correlated with stature (r = 0.925–0.948). Stature estimates have low standard errors of the estimate ranging from 21.79 to 25.95 mm, biases from to 0.50 to 0.94 mm, and accuracy rates from 17.71 mm to 19.45 mm. The procedure for determining the VSH, which replaces “S1 height” in traditional anatomical method models, is a key improvement to the method.