Lassen sich Signifikanztests auf Vollerhebungen anwenden? Einige essayistische Anmerkungen

The question whether it is allowed to use methods of statistical inference in the study of entire populations is disputed in the scientific community. Such a procedure can be justified only if the generation of the data of the population can be regarded as the realisation of a stochastic data generating process, analogously to drawing a sample out of a population by random. This article specifies under which circumstances these conditions can be regarded as given. Furthermore, it shows under which circumstances we should be at least careful, if not reluctant, to interpret the results of significance tests in the usual manner.     

Understanding the historical turn in the policy sciences: A critique of stochastic, narrative, path dependency and process-sequencing models of policy-making over time

This article evaluates four general models of historical change processes which have emerged in various fields in the social sciences – namely stochastic, historical narrative, path dependency and process sequencing – and their application to the study of public policy-making. The article sets out and assesses the merits and evidence for each, both in general social research and in the policy sciences. The article suggests that more work needs to be done examining the assumptions and presuppositions of each model before it can be concluded that any represents the general case in policy processes. However, since neither the irreversible linear reality assumed by narrative models, nor the random and chaotic world assumed by stochastic models, nor the contingent turning points and irreversible trajectories required of the path dependency model are found very often in policy-making, these models are likely to remain less significant than process-sequencing models in describing the overall general pattern of policy dynamics.     

Analyzing Roll Calls with Perfect Spatial Voting: France 1946–1958

A recent methodological advance in legislative roll-call analysis is especially relevant to the study of legislative behavior outside the setting of the United States Congress. We argue that Poole's (2000) optimal classification method for roll-call analysis is preferable to parametric methods for studying many legislatures. This is because the nature of party discipline, near-perfect spatial voting, and parliamentary institutions that provides incentives for strategic behavior lead to severe violations of the error assumptions underlying parametric methods. The robustness of the nonparametric method to the stochastic nature of the data makes it an ideal candidate for studying strategic behavior in legislatures. We illustrate these points with an analysis of data from the French Fourth Republic (1946–1958) .     

绩效管理改革的效果:来自美国联邦政府的证据

从1993年的《政府绩效与结果法案》(GPRA)以及布什政府的项目评估定级工具(PART)已经建立了一种新的政府管理惯例,两者的目的均在于促进美国联邦政府绩效管理实务的发展。但从绩效信息的使用方面来看,两者所做出的努力都极其有限,即一旦考虑其它因素,机构雇员不论是否参与PART评审,是否参与GPRA的实施进程,他们几乎都没有影响到绩效信息的使用。本文采用顺序Probit回归模型,通过对美国联邦审计总署基于1996、2000、2003和2007年的数据进行调研,最终得出依赖于难以观测的官僚行为来实现的政府改革是具有局限性的以及在政府绩效改善的过程中绩效信息使用的重要性。对数据的深层分析还揭示了一系列影响绩效信息使用的组织因素,这包括领导对结果的承诺、监管者引导学习惯例、工作动机的性质、将测量与行动链接起来的能力、管理的自由裁量权以及利益相关者之间的政治冲突。     

Happiness and public choice

Measuring individual welfare using data on reported subjective well-being has made great progress. It offers a new way of confronting public choice hypotheses with field data, e.g., with respect to partisan preferences or rents in the public bureaucracy. Insights from public choice also help to assess the role of happiness measures in public policy. We emphasize that maximizing aggregate happiness as a social welfare function neglects incentive problems and political institutions while citizens are reduced to metric stations. The goal of happiness research should be to improve the nature of the processes through which individuals can express their preferences.     

Treating Words as Data with Error: Uncertainty in Text Statements of Policy Positions

Political text offers extraordinary potential as a source of information about the policy positions of political actors. Despite recent advances in computational text analysis, human interpretative coding of text remains an important source of text-based data, ultimately required to validate more automatic techniques. The profession's main source of cross-national, time-series data on party policy positions comes from the human interpretative coding of party manifestos by the Comparative Manifesto Project (CMP). Despite widespread use of these data, the uncertainty associated with each point estimate has never been available, undermining the value of the dataset as a scientific resource. We propose a remedy. First, we characterize processes by which CMP data are generated. These include inherently stochastic processes of text authorship, as well as of the parsing and coding of observed text by humans. Second, we simulate these error-generating processes by bootstrapping analyses of coded quasi-sentences. This allows us to estimate precise levels of nonsystematic error for every category and scale reported by the CMP for its entire set of 3,000-plus manifestos. Using our estimates of these errors, we show how to correct biased inferences, in recent prominently published work, derived from statistical analyses of error-contaminated CMP data.     

Analysis of Structural Variability in Budget-Making

Incrementalism as a decision theory about budget-making is empirically evaluated by post-war data within the framework of budget-making processes of some Swedish public authorities. The analysis focuses on the relevance of a structural stability hypothesis using models for the processes of budget requests and appropriations. This hypothesis is tested by CUSUM and CUSUMQ tests. The more powerful CUSUMQ test clearly indicates a rejection of the stability assumption, which implies a need for revised models based on variability assumptions. These alternative models describing budget-making processes are estimated by Kalman filtering, an estimation approach designed to allow for structural variability. The paper shows that the key decision principles of incrementalism are too crude for the understanding of budget decisions.     

Die Erforschung der Wirkung politischer Meinungsumfragen: Lehren vom ‚Sonderfall‘ Schweiz

This paper summarizes findings from a Swiss project about the impact of polling. Using data from experimental designs, cross-section and panel surveys as well as a meta-analysis, we present data which are of interest for comparative research as well. First, we address the question of the nature of effects and specifically distinguish between direct and indirect effects. Second, we show that the framework of bandwagon and underdog effects is lacking precision in the multi-party system. Third, it is shown that the theoretical basis of the various stages of information processing is helpful and quite powerful for analysis. Fourth, due to the empirical profile of people relying on polls, and our findings regarding the issue predisposition regulatory authorities might be eased. Nevertheless, for scientists some processes still need to be disentangled and indirect effects seem to be substantial enough to warrant further attention.     

The Wilderness Act of 1964 and the Wilderness Preservation Policy Network

ABSTRACT

This article surveys an unpublished piece in which Friedrich Engels examined the ecological conditions of Ireland in a chapter entitled the “Natural Conditions” in his unfinished History of Ireland. In interpreting Engels’s findings dialectically we are able to explicate a dialectical framework that gives us a greater insight into how Engels understands the way in which the dialectics of nature enfold in a particular bioregion and how, crucially, those same organic processes of nature provide the necessary ecological conditions for society to engage in agricultural cultivation. The geological system of Ireland and its particular sieve-like structure moderate the climatic condition of excessive rainfall so that cultivation can continue. This investigation by Engels can be seen as a concrete case study into the dynamic metabolising relationships between the diverse organic processes of Nature as they are appropriated by society in agricultural production. The conceptual trajectory of this dialectical analysis is to emphasise the inherent fluidity, mutual interaction and “universal connection” of the forces of nature. This particular work of Engels’s is a significant contribution to our understanding not only of the dialectics of nature but also of the methodology of dialectics as such.     

Life beyond big data: governing with little analytics

Abstract

The twenty-first-century rise of big data marks a significant break with statistical notions of what is of interest or concern. The vast expansion of digital data has been closely intertwined with the development of advanced analytical algorithms with which to make sense of the data. The advent of techniques of knowledge discovery affords some capacity for the analytics to derive the object or subject of interest from clusters and patterns in large volumes of data, otherwise imperceptible to human reading. Thus, the scale of the big in big data is of less significance to contemporary forms of knowing and governing than what we will call the little analytics. Following Henri Bergson's analysis of forms of perception which ‘cut out’ a series of figures detached from the whole, we propose that analytical algorithms are instruments of perception without which the extensity of big data would not be comprehensible. The technologies of analytics focus human attention and decision on particular persons and things of interest, whilst annulling or discarding much of the material context from which they are extracted. Following the algorithmic processes of ingestion, partitioning and memory, we illuminate how the use of analytics engines has transformed the nature of analysis and knowledge and, thus, the nature of the governing of economic, social and political life.     

Subnational Debt Swaps in Mexico,How Big Is Risk Exposure?

Research and practice with derivative instruments by States and Municipalities in Mexico are virtually unexplored. This paper investigates the effect of interest rate jumps and financial contagion on the risk exposure of Subnational Government debt swaps in Mexico. Unconditional risk exposure measures of debt swaps are obtained by simulating a set of stochastic processes with jumps. Simulation results confirm that risk exposure of local debt swaps increases with Poisson discontinuities while a significant effect is observed after crisis contagion is accounted for.     

Multiparty electoral competition in the Netherlands and Germany: A model based on multinomial probit

A typical assumption of electoral models of party competition is that parties adopt policy positions so as to maximize expected vote share. Here we use Euro-barometer survey data and European elite-study data from 1979 for the Netherlands and Germany to construct a stochastic model of voter response, based on multinomial probit estimation. For each of these countries, we estimate a pure spatial electoral voting model and a joint spatial model. The latter model also includes individual voter and demographic characteristics. The pure spatial models for the two countries quite accurately described the electoral response as a stochastic function of party positions. We use these models to perform a thought experiment so as to estimate the expected vote maximizing party positions. We go on to propose a model of internal party decision-making based both on pre-election electoral estimation and post-election coalition bargaining. This model suggests why the various parties in the period in question did not adopt vote maximizing positions. We argue that maximizing expected vote will not, in general, be a rational party strategy in multiparty political systems which are based on proportional representation.     

A better budget rule

Debt limits, interest coverage ratios, one‐off balanced budget requirements, pay‐as‐you‐go rules, and tax and expenditure limits are among the most important fiscal rules for constraining intertemporal transfers. There is considerable evidence that the least costly and most effective of such rules are those that focus directly on the rate of spending growth, even with their seemingly ad hoc nature and possibilities for circumvention. In this paper, we use optimal control theory and martingale methods to justify a transparent, nonarbitrary rule governing maximum sustainable rate of spending growth, treating the revenue structure of a jurisdiction as a given continuous‐time stochastic process. Our results can be used to determine whether a proposed rate of spending growth is sustainable or not. © 2009 by the Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management     

At the Nexus of Observational and Experimental Research: Theory,Specification, and Analysis of Experiments with Heterogeneous Treatment Effects

Experimentalists are increasingly examining heterogeneous treatment effects, in which observed individual-level characteristics are hypothesized to moderate an experimental treatment effect. Such work places researchers at the nexus of experimental and observational approaches. In this paper, we discuss the theoretical and statistical issues that can arise in testing such hypotheses. We note that inclusion of an observed (as opposed to randomly-assigned) moderator introduces the possibility of confounds that are commonplace in observational data analysis but too-easily ignored in experimental data analysis. We simulate several different data generating processes that include heterogeneous treatment effects, and we discuss the implications of various statistical models. We aim to provide researchers who examine heterogeneous treatment effects with background and advice that enable them to identify where common issues may arise and to develop research designs and implement statistical tests that will mitigate them.     

关系的本质与选择:基于一项实验的考察

关系研究目前呈现多元发展的态势,关系本质这个研究维度的推进仍有待深入。基于一个大学本科班集体课业游戏中分组问题的考察,本文尝试从中提出在关系的情感性、工具性之外,还有一个非常重要的属性:契约性或曰结构性。关系的本质就是关系的契约性(或结构性)、情感性、工具性三个维度演进、凸显、变化的过程。关系三维度的暴露和展现遵循一定的原则,对这些原则的探索,有利于把握组织和群体中的派系问题,对关系管理、关系建构等的理解也会有所助益。     

Citizenship Tests: A Comparative, Communitarian Perspective

The history, nature and scope of citizen naturalisation tests are briefly examined in this article, as well as their political and social applications. A comparison of tests from the United States, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands and Germany highlights the ways in which these tests are used as immigration controls rather than as a way to establish preparation for citizenship. The difference in the content of the tests also reveal alternative conceptions of citizenship including authoritarian, liberal and neo-communitarian.     

Thick Red Tape and the Thin Blue Line: A Field Study on Reducing Administrative Burden in Police Recruitment

Police departments struggle to recruit officers, and voluntary drop-off of candidates exacerbates this challenge. Using four years of administrative data and a field experiment conducted in the Los Angeles Police Department, the authors analyze the impact of administrative burden on the likelihood that a candidate will remain in the recruitment process. Findings show that reducing friction costs to participation and simplifying processes improve compliance, as behavioral public administration would predict. Applicants who were offered simpler, standardized processes completed more tests and were more likely to be hired. Later reductions to perceived burden led to an 8 percent increase in compliance, with a 60 percent increase in compliance within two weeks. However, removing steps that would have allowed for better understanding of eligibility kept unqualified candidates in the process for longer, reducing organizational efficiency. These results extend the field's understanding of how administrative burden can impact the selection of talent into government.     

The Differential Empowering Effects of Europeanization on the Autonomy of National Agencies

This article examines the influence of Europeanization on the relationship between ministries and agencies at the national level. The core argument is that the differentiated nature of the international environment (with policy development often transferred to the international level and policy implementation left at the national level) transforms national agencies into policy‐developing actors that shape policies without being directly influenced by their national political principals. The increasingly common involvement of national agencies in European policymaking processes thereby increases these agencies' policy‐development autonomy but does not change their role in policy implementation. We examine this argument by testing an innovative hypothesis—the differentiation hypothesis—on a combined data set of German and Dutch national agencies. Our empirical findings support the hypothesis in both countries, suggesting that similar effects can be expected in other contexts in which semiautonomous agencies are involved in transnational policymaking.     

Required to assimilate? The content of citizenship tests in five countries

In order to investigate questions about the assimilatory or liberal nature of obligatory integration measures for immigrants in Europe, this article systematically analyses and compares the content of citizenship tests in Austria, the UK, Germany, the Netherlands and the USA. Based on a two-dimensional classification of citizenship test questions – along 14 thematic and two normative categories – the analysis has produced a surprising result: no hypothesis from the existing citizenship and civic integration literature can explain the content of all five citizenship tests. Furthermore, I find that the characteristics of a citizenship policy regime are not a good predictor for the content of the respective citizenship tests. In the sample, countries renowned for having an ethno-cultural understanding of citizenship implemented citizenship tests conveying a politically liberal idea of a community of citizens, united around legal and political norms, rather than around sociocultural ones. By contrast, the Netherlands – a country with a liberal and multicultural reputation – also requires immigrants to be aware of and accept certain sociocultural norms.