Change beneath the surface: the 2016 Northern Ireland Assembly election

Preceded by a string of institutional crises and sustained political wrangling, the Northern Ireland Assembly election held in May 2016 cemented the grip of the Democratic Unionist Party and Sinn Féin over the province’s power-sharing institutions, while certifying the impasse of their intra-bloc rivals. Eighteen years after the Good Friday Agreement, the electoral campaign continued to feature emotionally charged ethnic appeals. Nonetheless, socioeconomic issues were at the fore of the political debate, contributing to the limited yet significant advance of non-sectarian actors. Beneath the surface of a mainly unaltered Assembly makeup and unchanged ethno-political geography, the vote resulted in a decline in support for the traditional governing parties, particularly in the nationalist camp. In the aftermath of the vote, the formation of an officially recognized Opposition has opened uncharted political waters.     

Competitive primaries and party division in congressional elections

We examine the effects of competitiveness and divisiveness in the 2010 congressional election, as the emergence of the Tea Party resulted in many competitive Republican primaries and highlighted significant divisions within the party. We find that competitive Republican primaries and competitive Democratic primaries increased turnout in the general election. The presence of divisiveness in the Republican Party has no discernible effect on turnout on its own, but actually increases the vote share captured by the Republican Party in November. Additionally, we find that while either a competitive primary or the presence of a Tea Party candidate was advantageous to the Republican Party, the presence of both in the same election was no more beneficial than if there was either a competitive primary or a division in the party.     

人民性——党规与国法关系共存的逻辑

党内法规与国家法律的关系问题是当下党内法规研究中的一个核心问题。党内法规是中国共产党维护全党团结统一实现奋斗目标,用以调整和规范党内各方面关系的制度体系。新中国的国家法律是党领导人民为维护国家统一实现人民幸福而制定的用以构建国家、社会、公民各方面利益及关系的制度体系,是实现依法治国基本方略的载体。党内法规与国家法律都是体现人民意志并围绕着中国社会的治理实践展开和发展的。我们需要认识这两大制度体系的区别,但尤其需要认识这两大制度体系的共存和统一。党的十八大以来,习近平关于党内法规与国家法律关系的一系列重要论述提示人们:鲜明的人民性,是构成党内法规与国家法律关系逻辑共存和实现统一的深厚基础。     

The Danish ‘Competition State’: Still Along the Third Way?

This brief review article addresses the question of whether the so-called “competition state” was “abandoned” during the recent Danish election of 2019, which brought the Social Democrats back in government under the leadership of Mette Frederiksen. During the prior Social Democratic government of 2011-2015, led by Helle Thorning-Schmitt, this concept was introduced as a highly controversial policy concept and came to summarize the government’s program of economic reforms and recovery. The concept was subsequently strongly criticized in broader public political discourse as well as by the Social Democratic party and Mette Frederiksen herself. It is thus worth considering, whether the competition state reform program has been “buried” with the recent election, as this might imply a more radical break or discontinuity away from the “third way” competition state reform program embarked upon by most western European Social democrats since the 1990’s. This article will, first, briefly review the public discussion about the competition state in Denmark, before it, second, will recapitulate the academic debate about the competition state and clarify the concept. Third, it will review central tenets of the economic policy of the Thorning-Schmitt government of 2011-2015, as well as, fourth, the announced reform program of the new Social Democratic government. Finally the article will contrast and compare the two programs, and conclude that the “competition state” to a large extent endured the election of 2019, even if the Frederiksen government seems to lead the Danish competition state into reform trajectory towards increasing dis-universalization of social security and pensions.     

The Swedish Election 1998: A Protest Vote and the Birth of a New Political Landscape?

The 1998 Swedish general election was a protest election primarily against the Social Democratic Party. The party was hit by a debate on deceit when the unpopular financial restructuring policy was implemented. Disappointed social democratic voters from the 1994 election flocked to the Left Party. Others did not vote at all. The electoral turnout dropped to 81.4 percent; the lowest level in a parliamentary election since the election of 1958. A turnout of 81.4 percent is not particularly low from an international perspective, but it has received a great deal of attention in the political debate. Certain signs do indicate that there has been a general devaluation of voting as a means of exercising political influence among large groups of voters. Other forms of influence are perceived as being more meaningful. A sense of meaninglessness, of individual and institutional powerlessness, also seems to be spreading to social groups that have traditionally had a fundamental trust in the political system.     

The 2015 Norwegian Local Elections: Support for Governing Radical Right Progress Party Plummets and Great Gains for Greens in ‘Second-Order’ Elections

Two years into the first term of the right wing Conservative/Progress Party coalition government, the 2015 Norwegian local elections displayed many features of a ‘second-order’ election: the governing parties lost considerable support, minor parties did well and voter turnout was low. For the second local elections in a row, political circumstances prevented the far right Progress Party from mobilizing on the anti-immigration issue, adding to the burdens of governing nationally for the first time. The Green Party leveraged its 2013 entry into the national parliament into record support, consolidating the progress made in the 2011 local elections. Although the elections were shaped by national politics, municipal and county variation shows that local political factors did matter.     

When Supply Creates Demand: Social Democratic Party Strategies and the Evolution of Class Voting

This paper focuses on the policy strategies adopted by social democratic parties and their impact on the class basis of their support. It is argued that political appeals matter for explaining the development of class voting. This argument is tested through a comparison of the policy strategies of social democratic parties in Austria and Switzerland and the evolving patterns of class voting in the two countries. Using election surveys and data on the policy positions and media representation of the political parties from the 1970s to the 2000s, the article finds that the Social Democratic Party in Austria maintained a strong working class base. In contrast, the Social Democratic Party in Switzerland facilitated a major transformation of the class basis of its support by emphasising new cultural issues. It became the party of the ‘new middle classes’, leaving the working class to realign in support of the Swiss People’s Party.     

Madeira Regional Elections 2015: A Polity Tyrannized by Majorities or the End of an Era?

The 2015 Madeira regional elections, held on 29 March, saw the re-election of the Social Democratic Party (PSD/M), for the twelfth regional government. This was despite the incumbent party's vote share falling to 44.36%. For almost 40 years of regional elections in Madeira, the PSD/M has won consecutive absolute majorities without once losing power. The result of the 2015 election reinforced the tendency over the last 40 years of politics in Madeira: the emergence of a viable electoral challenger to the ruling party continues to be unlikely and the incumbent continues to mobilize the regional electorate and win the electoral contest.     

The Tea Party and the Crisis of Neoliberalism: Mainstreaming New Right Populism in the Corporate News Media

Within months of Barack Obama's election, a putatively grass-roots conservative uprising emerged to challenge the Democratic Party's agenda. In this article, we analyze the role of cable news in the rise of the Tea Party during the current “crisis of neoliberalism”—a moment of political-economic volatility brought about by the Great Recession. We argue that the Tea Party's political purpose is to hold together the New Right coalition of business elites and white working- and middle-class Americans that undergirds the neoliberal political project. In the context of a deregulated corporate mass media, we show that both “right-wing” and “moderate” cable networks mainstreamed the Tea Party by framing it as a legitimate social movement, enabling the widespread projection of right-wing populist discourse in support of neoliberalism. In light of our study, we suggest that democratizing the mass media is crucial for a sustained progressive political response in the United States.     

The 2019 Portuguese general elections

Abstract

The 2019 Portuguese general elections have led to the formation of another minority government of the Socialist Party. Right-wing parties suffered a resounding defeat. The election had two key consequences. First, after four years of contract parliamentarism with an extreme-left party, the Socialists returned to their historical position of pivotal party in the system. Socialist leader Costa refused to replicate alliances with parties to his left. Second, the 2019 election witnessed the emergence of three new parties, Chega, Iniciativa Liberal and Livre. The election of Chega marks a watershed moment in Portuguese democratic history, as for the first time an extreme-right populist party has gained representation in the country.     

Repression and reaction: militant democracy and the radical right in Germany and France

The June 2004 elections offered the British National Party unique opportunities for growth. There were three different elections being held at once: for seats on local councils, for the London mayor and the London Assembly, and for members of the European parliament (MEPs). Following boundary changes, the local council election was being conducted on a three-candidates-per-seat basis. The London and European elections were being run according to the rules of proportional representation. Both systems favour minor parties. The BNP went into the elections buoyed up by almost four years of considerable success. However, the party failed to achieve the gains anticipated. After several years that witnessed increasing votes, this was the first instance of the BNP vote stagnating. Renton explains the BNP's failure in terms of a series of factors: poor leadership, tactical errors, the hardening of Conservative anti-BNP voters, the press publicity garnered by the UK Independence Party, and the successful intervention of anti-BNP campaigners.     

Estimating the potential impact of nonvoters on outcomes of parliamentary elections in proportional systems with an application to German national elections from 1949 to 2009

“If turnout was 100%, would it affect the election result?” is a frequently asked research question. So far, the question has been primarily answered regarding the changes in the distribution of votes. This article extends the analysis to changes in the distribution of seats and government formation. It therefore proposes a method that factors in apportionment methods, election threshold, sizes of parliaments, leverage of nonvoters, closeness of election results, and individual characteristics of nonvoters. The method is then applied to German national elections from 1949 to 2009. The application shows that Germany's Social Democratic Party (SPD) would have gained from the counterfactual participation of nonvoters, although usually not enough to result in a government change. However, the elections of 1994 and 2005 show evidence that such a change could have happened.     

Mama Grizzlies Compete for Office

In the 2010 general elections, a record number of Republican women ran for, and won congressional seats. Many were also endorsed by the Tea Party and/or heralded by Sarah Palin as being “Mama Grizzlies.” This election provides a unique opportunity to examine if ideological and partisan differences among women matter in terms of how they campaign for office. Did they behave any differently than their more liberal counterparts? Did they boast being endorsed by Palin and/or other Tea Party organizations? Did they invoke their gendered or “Mama Grizzly” status to appeal to voters? This study uses data gathered from ninety-two websites of women who ran for Congress in 2010. Overall, it is found that Republican women did not reference the Tea Party, nor embrace being “Mama Grizzlies.” In addition, these candidates shied away from discussing their gendered identities and supporting “women's issues.” Finally, there were few differences between Democratic and Republican women with regard to how they presented themselves via their websites. I conclude by discussing the implications of the claims they make (or not) about gender role norms, motherhood, and their fitness for office.     

Picking a loser? A social choice perspective on the Danish government formation of 1975

All democratic systems are theoretically open to so-called election inversions, i.e., instances wherein a majority of the decision makers prefer one alternative but where the actual outcome is another. The paper examines the complex 1975 Danish government formation process, which involved five rounds of negotiations and at least five competing alternatives. We demonstrate that in terms of party preferences the final outcome was not the Condorcet winner but rather one that could have been beaten by at least three other government alternatives in head-to-head comparisons. The Danish procedural system of “negative” parliamentarism combined with simple plurality rule to produce the electoral inversion.     

Managing Orderly Decline? Nationalism in Northern Ireland Since the Good Friday Agreement (1998)

The 2016 Northern Ireland Assembly election highlighted substantive issues within nationalism. Both the main nationalist parties, the Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP) and Sinn Féin, recorded the worst combined vote for over 20 years. This article suggests that the downturn in nationalist support was years in the making and examines why nationalist voters might be turning away from the ballot box. It considers the various factors that underlined both parties' approach to consecutive electoral tests from 1998 until 2016, showing how Sinn Féin replaced the SDLP as the leading force within nationalism, and concluding that new leadership may yet halt the process of orderly decline.     

Strategic politicians,partisan roll calls,and the Tea Party: Evaluating the 2010 midterm elections

The 2010 midterm elections were politically and historically significant in several respects. This article offers a concise narrative of the congressional elections beginning with a discussion of the factors influencing the outcome of the historic election. We briefly consider established research on congressional elections and analyze the degree to which these theories apply to the specific circumstances in 2010. Throughout the article, we compare the 2010 midterms to two other recent elections, 2006 and 2008. We also examine several idiosyncratic aspects of the 2010 elections, relative to the historic midterm elections of 1994 and 2006, as well as the effects of the stimulus and healthcare reform bills and the Tea Party movement. We find strong effects for member votes on the individual roll calls, but little evidence of Tea Party influence on electoral outcomes.     

An analysis of the changing social bases of America's political parties: Group support in the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections

In this note I address two questions: 1.) what were the group bases of the U.S. electoral coalitions in 2012 and 2016? 2.) how have the group bases of support changed in the past decades? I determine social group memberships significantly influence individual partisanship with a multivariate analysis using ANES data. I then measure how many votes each politically relevant social group contributed to the party coalitions in each presidential election between 1972 to 2016. I go on to discuss how group contributions have changed and discuss the demographic and behavioral forces driving these changes. The defection of college educated whites from the Republican Party to the Democratic Party was the most pronounced change from 2012 to 2016, but the Democratic Party's steadily increasing reliance on ethnic and racial minority groups remains the most important long-term trend. Overall, I find that the party coalitions in 2012 and 2016 were relatively stable and most changes were continuations of decades long trends, despite perceptions there has been a sudden realignment.     

民主工具的开发与执政能力的提升——解读温岭“民主恳谈会”的一种新视角

学术界在研究温岭的"民主恳谈会"时都使用了民主的定语.总体上可以把此前的研究概括为三种视角:民主的治理视角、民主的参与视角和民主的制度视角.试图提出一种民主的工具视角来概括"民主恳谈会"的长时段发展,并且通过对民主工具的各种比较,从理论和经验两个层面上阐发"民主恳谈会"的发展机理及其理论与实践意义.提出,现有三种视角所概括的"民主恳谈"的时空范围都非常有限,都没有讨论到选举与民主的内在关系.一种新的民主工具视角既可以在更大的时空范围之内观察"民主恳谈"活动的发展,又可以在一种新的视角下提炼民主化道路的差异.在这种新的视角下,民主是由包括选举在内的一系列工具的复杂组合;在不同的时空背景下,各种工具的开发顺序在一定程度上决定着特定国家在特定发展阶段上的民主化路径与方式.作为一种民主工具的"民主恳谈"活动,虽然是基层党务官员为了提高执政能力而使用的一种工具,但是这种工具的开发也有利于在特定时空范围内激发出其他的民主工具.     

新加坡人民行动党人民理念的践行与启示

新加坡人民行动党从1959年自治后上台执政至今,已连续赢得13届大选,执政长达50余年,成为世界上实行多党制国家中执政时间最长的政党。新加坡人民行动党之所以能够稳操胜券、长期执政,除了通过对各种资源近乎垄断的控制、对程序立法的精心设计以及对选战策略的一系列技术性安排之外,最重要的原因在于人民行动党以促进国家福利和人民幸福为宗旨,始终坚持不懈地致力于为民办实事、造福人民,用实际行动赢得了选民的真心支持。     

Anders Breivik and the Death of Free Speech in Norway

On July 22, 2011, Anders Breivik detonated a bomb in Oslo and massacred dozens of teenagers at a Labour Party Youth camp on the island of Utøya. Nearly all the media coverage of Breivik focused on the conservative political views outlined in his Manifesto. The week of the massacre, The New York Times ran a series of editorials which identified Breivik as a part of the counterjihad movement represented by Pete King, Bruce Bawer, Geert Wilders, Newt Gingrich, and Robert Spencer. In Norway, the Norwegian media was quick to blame Siv Jensen of the conservative Progress Party for creating the “climate of hate” which produced Breivik. In the wake of the murders, prominent Norwegian intellectuals began calling for a rejection of American “free speech absolutism” in favor of vigorously enforcing an “anti-racism” clause in Norway’s penal code which criminalizes threatening or insulting speech, or speech that incites contempt for anyone because of his or her skin color, religion, or sexual orientation. However, this would contribute little to public safety in Norway; instead it would stifle the kind of vigorous debate about social issues that one would expect to find in an open society. It would also demoralize moderate Muslims who are working to promote free speech and democratic pluralism in Muslim-majority countries.