“拯救”还是“干预”：国际货币基金组织的悖论分析

国际货币基金组织（以下简称IMF），是根据1944年7月在美国新罕布什尔州布雷顿森林召开的联合国和联盟国家国际货币金融会议上通过的《国际货币基金组织协定》而建立起来的政府间国际金融组织，其在解决受援国国际收支失衡、防范并治理金融危机等方面扮演了国际拯救者的角色并发挥了重要作用。     

Creating the Financial Stability Forum: What Role for Existing Institutions?

The Financial Stability Forum (FSF)—now rebranded as the Financial Stability Board (FSB)—has become a focal point for financial regulatory initiatives in the aftermath of the 2008 Global Financial Crisis. Despite its central status, the body has received little attention from scholars. This is particularly striking both in light of the increasing centrality of the FSF/FSB within the realm of financial regulatory governance and the body's unusual structure and composition. Indeed, the creation and design of the FSF pose an empirical puzzle: what explains the creation of a new, informal and loosely structured institution and the centre of a financial regulatory governance regime? At the time of the Forum's creation, the broader financial architecture was marked by significant institutional density, with a large number of international organisations engaged in governance activities. This paper argues that it is precisely the structure and activities of these existing institutions, particularly the International Monetary Fund, the Bank for International Settlements and the Joint Forum on Financial Conglomerates, which account for the creation and design of the FSF, and points to the need for scholars to take seriously the role of organisations operating within institutionally dense spaces.     

Out of the shadows or into the dark? Economic openness,IMF programs,and the growth of shadow economies

The existence of shadow economies is an important, yet understudied, issue for international political economy and development. This study examines how two distinct types of international economic engagement—economic openness and participation in International Monetary Fund (IMF) programs—affect the growth of shadow (informal) sectors. We theorize that increased economic openness will reduce the size of countries’ shadow sectors. More specifically, we posit that eliminating market-distorting trade barriers will decrease the incentives for shadow sector activities such as smuggling. Additionally, we posit that increased participation in global production and supply chains is likely to lead to a positive, “climb to the top” effect on states’ regulatory and labor policies that enhance the prospective benefits associated with formal sectors. Conversely, we argue that participation in IMF structural adjustment programs can lead to great shadow sector activity as IMF-imposed structural conditions might cause significant near-term economic hardship and degrade states’ regulatory capacity. The results from a panel of 145 countries from 1971 to 2012 indicate that economic openness reduces the size of the shadow economy, while participation in IMF programs is significantly related to a larger shadow economy. These findings have important implications for understanding how the divergent forms of international economic engagement might affect shadow economies.     

Lessons from the Asian financial crisis for the eurozone: a comparative analysis of the perilous politics of austerity in Asia and Europe

This paper comparatively examines diverse responses from three major actors in the global political economy (the state, civil society, international financial institutions) to the Asian financial crisis of 1997 and the current eurozone crisis. First, it analyses conditional lending policies of international financial institutions (IFIs) such as the International Monetary Fund toward countries in fiscal distress. It then critically examines how the lending policies engendered social tensions and conflicts as austerity measures such as cuts to social welfare programmes hit hard on the populace. Examining how the state and civil society in Asia reacted to and, as a result of contentious state–civil society interactions, altered the policies of IFIs, the paper draws lessons from the Asian financial crisis for the European Union and puts forwards alternative policy suggestions.     

Certified or branded?

While often considered a purely financial institution, the IMF has throughout its history performed non-financial services for its membership. The latest example is the Policy Support Instrument (PSI), a certification mechanism established in 2005 for which only poor members are eligible. Based on a formal game-theoretic model, I argue that it is unlikely that the PSI will serve well the intention of facilitating capital market access for members requesting the service. Their low income, the lack of significant consequences for markets, the IMF’s traditional reluctance to criticize members, as well as the need to promote the use of the new arrangement indicate that the Fund could emphasize participants’ welfare over the interests of private lenders. The continued importance of foreign aid in eligible countries also puts the IMF in the role of gatekeeping such flows, which might conflict with sending clear signals to commercial actors. All these reasons imply that in many cases its seal of approval will be of little use to third-parties, despite the high standards to which PSI-countries are supposed to adhere. The best argument in favor of the PSI being a useful addition to the Fund’s tool kit for low-income members is the fact that several countries have already signed a second one.     

The GATS and financial services: the role of regulatory transparency

The World Trade Organization (WTO) General Agreement on Trade in Services (GATS) and its Annex on Financial Services provide the international legal framework for the regulation of cross-border trade in financial services. This paper analyses the main provisions of the GATS that relate to regulatory transparency of trade in financial services. The GATS generally provides a flexible framework for states to negotiate liberalisation commitments while providing WTO members with autonomy to promote their regulatory objectives. The extent to which states, however, must adhere to GATS disciplines regarding transparent regulatory practices has become a source of policy debate. Although the WTO has played no role in setting financial regulatory standards, the transparency obligations of the GATS have important implications for how financial regulators can achieve their objectives. Moreover, GATS transparency obligations can potentially create disproportionate administrative costs for developing countries and thus undermine their financial sector development. The paper argues that the principles of regulatory transparency in the GATS should be interpreted in a way that favours regulatory discretion to achieve financial stability and other prudential objectives. In the post-Doha era, WTO members should attempt to clarify GATS transparency obligations in a way that promotes financial development and regulatory autonomy.     

Informal influence in the Asian Development Bank

Through case studies and empirical analysis, scholars have uncovered convincing evidence that individual donors influence lending decisions of international financial institutions (IFIs) such as the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank. Less clear are the mechanisms by which donors exert influence. Potential mechanisms are either formal or informal. Formal influence is through official decisions of the board of executive directors while informal influence covers all other channels. This paper explores the role of informal influence at the Asian Development Bank by examining the flow of funds after loans are approved. Controlling for commitments (loan approvals), are subsequent disbursements linked to the interests of the key shareholders, Japan and the U.S.? I compare these findings with results for the World Bank and consider implications for institutional reforms.     

The Common Security and Defence Policy as an act of American hegemony

Abstract

The financial crisis endangers the security of NATO's members and partners. As such, NATO has a formal obligation to mobilize its resources to aid members in overcoming current economic challenges. NATO can play a valuable role on three levels. First, NATO can aid members in rationalizing their military procurement and manpower systems, thus reducing the fiscal burden of maintaining adequate defenses. Second, NATO can press the ECB and the EU to modify arrangements governing the Euro so as to minimize the risk that EMU will collapse. Finally, NATO has a “soft power” role in vigorously defending the liberal economic order and democratic political institutions of the Western Alliance from the ideological attacks that inevitably follow financial crises.     

“The silent revolution:” How the staff exercise informal governance over IMF lending

This paper examines how the staff exercise informal governance over lending decisions of the International Monetary Fund (IMF or Fund). The essential component of designing any IMF program, assessing the extent to which a borrowing country is likely to fulfill its policy commitments, is based partly on informal staff judgments subject to informal incentives and normative orientations not dictated by formal rules and procedures. Moreover, when country officials are unable to commit to policy goals of the IMF, the IMF staff may bypass the formal channel of policy dialogue through informal contacts and negotiations with more like-minded actors outside the policymaking process. Exercising informal governance in these ways, the staff are motived by informal career advancement incentives and normative orientations associated with the organization’s culture to provide favorable treatment to borrowers composed of policy teams sympathetic toward their policy goals. The presence of these sympathetic interlocutors provides the staff both with greater confidence a lending program will achieve success and an opportunity to support officials who share their policy beliefs. I assess these arguments using a new dataset that proxies shared policy beliefs based on the professional characteristics of IMF staff and developing country officials. The evidence supports these arguments: larger loan commitments are extended to countries where government officials and the Fund staff share similar professional training. The analysis implies informal governance operates in IOs not just via state influence but also through the evolving makeup, incentive structure, and normative orientations of their staffs.     

美国国家安全委员会变迁探析

美国建立了世界上第一个国家安全委员会,历经67年世势风云的洗礼,美国国家安全委员会已成为美国处理所有国际事务的中心,作为美国国家安全事务的咨询与协调机构,它在美国国家安全决策过程乃至世界外交局势的演变中都持续发挥着重要的影响力。历经各任领导者对其地位与角色的不同定位,美国国家安全委员会的职能、制度、运行及决策程序在不断修改与调整中走向稳定与成熟。其机构和人员的设置既审时度势、灵活多样、顺应时代变化,又逐渐探索确立了富有特色的部际协调机制,将各法定成员、法定顾问、国家安全事务助理以及非法定成员有效地组织起来,通过形式各异的正式程序、非正式程序以及秘密程序的分析、评估与协调会议,为总统的国家安全事务决策提供必不可少的支持。美国国家安全委员会变迁与改革的每一步都伴随着法律及行政法令的颁行与修订,授权与监督,体现了法制先行的特点。美国国家安全委员会戏剧性的发展历程中积累的经验与教训,为中国建立不久的中央国家安全委员会提供了借鉴。     

Preventing protectionism: International institutions and trade policy

This paper examines the role of international institutions in preventing the rise of protectionism. We analyze states?? choices in trade policy during the current global economic crisis, a situation likely to exacerbate uncertainty in the conduct of commercial relations and to push countries toward ??beggar-thy-neighbor?? trade policies. The main argument of the paper is that the numerous international institutions present in the international system during the current economic crisis serve as conveyors of information and mechanisms of commitment and socialization. They mitigate the uncertainty problem that prevails in prisoner??s dilemma settings such as trade. Economic international organizations increase the flow of information about the preferences and behaviors of its members. Non-economic organizations also have a role to play as social environments that encourage cooperation. Specialized international institutions devoted to trade, such as the WTO and preferential trade agreements (PTAs), not only provide monitoring and enforcement functions but also lock in commitments to liberal trade through legal obligations that make defections costly. We test our argument using a dataset of trade policies during the current economic crisis and of membership in international organizations. The paper finds strong support for the role of international institutions as commitment and socialization mechanisms in preventing the rise of protectionism.     

Institutionalizing gender in UK NGOs

Drawing on recent research, it has been explored how far and in what ways UK NGOs have tried to incorporate gender into the policies and procedures of their international development work, and how far a formal recognition of gender issues is shaping the way each organization functions. The strengths and weaknesses of different strategies are assessed (such as specialist staff or units, formal gender policies, gender training, equal opportunity recruitment policies, and mainstreaming) for transforming organizational practice.     

国际金融危机后新加坡金融监管体制改革及对东盟其他国家的启示

在国际金融危机发生后,东盟最发达的金融国家新加坡凭借自身的体制优势,迅速采取措施,不断完善金融监管体制,成功化解了金融危机的冲击。本文总结借鉴新加坡金融监管体制改革的经验,提出对东盟其他国家的启示。     

Social normativity,housing, and urbanisation in an Indian city

A significant part of urbanisation in India is happening through unregulated or partly regulated trajectories that are either informal or semi-formal in nature, and regulatory authorities have come to terms with them on a piecemeal basis over a period of time. This article contends that what is considered unplanned by regulatory agencies is actually planned by people and facilitated by the normativity surrounding both formal and informal institutions of urbanisation in society. The study looks at the processes through which such a housing settlement comes into being and negotiates legitimacy, authorisation, as well as basic civic services.     

How NATO remembers: explaining institutional memory in NATO crisis management

This article introduces an argument for how institutional memory of crisis management operations develops in North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). Scholars of European security and of international organisations have examined organisational learning, but have yet to explain its precondition: institutional memory. In a context of increasing turnover due to defence budget cuts, it remains unclear how shared knowledge of strategic errors is acquired. This article finds that the NATO secretariat facilitates practitioners’ use of informal processes for contributing to institutional memory in response to the constraints of existing formal learning processes. These formal processes, including a lessons learned centre and a lessons learned database, inadvertently disincentivise practitioners from contributing such knowledge as using them can incur reputational costs. Drawing on NATO documentation and interviews with 27 NATO elite practitioners, the paper provides evidence that practitioners instead share knowledge through three informal processes: interpersonal communications, private documentation and crisis simulations.     

What’s left out and why? Informal provisions in formal international law

When states face an international cooperation problem requiring enforcement, when do they decide to make that enforcement formal versus informal? I introduce a research design for investigating how informal mechanisms might be relevant to formal international agreements. I present an overall theory of punishment provisions and a set of hypotheses about whether any needed punishments will be formalized or not. This theory gives rise to a two-part empirical analysis conducted on a large-n dataset. First, the presence of enforcement mechanisms in agreements is predicted, and, second, those cases that are “misclassified”—ones in which the model predicts the presence of such mechanisms, but the agreements lack them—are analyzed. These misclassified agreements, candidates for informal enforcement, are characterized by regime heterogeneity and military asymmetries among parties. Case study evidence supports the results.     

Where Are the Women in Global Governance? Leaders,Wives and Hegemonic Masculinity in the G8 and G20 Summits

Although various studies have explored women's representation and participation in the central mechanisms of global governance such as the United Nations, the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund, no similar study exists in the case of the summit meetings of the Group of Eight and Group of Twenty countries. This article begins by identifying the participation of women within these formal and informal fora of global governance and concludes that both summits represent sites of hegemonic masculinity in terms of space, style and, to an extent, substance. It then extends its focus towards an exploration and evaluation of the occasions when women have played an apparently dominant role in these summit meetings: as spouses. Whilst acknowledging the impact of their participation in terms of agenda setting and policymaking, in addition to the ceremonial roles they play through the various social events and photo opportunities organised on the periphery of these summits, the article concludes that these activities serve ultimately to reinforce the elite nature of summitry, in addition to a gendered division of labour and a hegemonic form of masculinity therein.     

Membership no longer has its privileges: The declining informal influence of Board members on IDA lending

This paper examines the ability of Board members of the most important multilateral donor to developing countries, the International Development Association (IDA) of the World Bank, to influence IDA allocations toward their home countries. I show that a system of Bank staff ratings of individual countries' policies, which has become more important in IDA lending over time, has systematically reduced the informal power of Board members. I show that while IDA Board members received more IDA commitments than their counterparts prior to 1989, this influence has disappeared since, as the importance of the policy index has increased. The findings are robust to the inclusion of fixed effects and a variety of relevant controls. In order to further support my argument, I also investigate the influence of Board membership on the Bank's policy index itself. I am unable to establish any positive relationship between Board membership and the index, either during the Cold War or afterwards. The findings not only shed important light on the internal workings of World Bank allocations to poor countries, but also highlight the ways in which institutional designs can affect the balance of informal power in international institutions.     

Formal and Informal Consociational Institutions: A Comparison of the National Pact and the Taif Agreement in Lebanon

Abstract

In the past decades, New Institutionalism in political science has rekindled an interest in the role of institutions and has theorized the interaction between formal and informal institutions. Unfortunately, little of this has made its way into the consociational literature. This article brings together the two bodies of work, focusing on the case of Lebanon because it allows for a unique analysis over time of the different ways in which consociational features have been institutionalized. The National Pact of 1943 was a gentleman’s agreement between the political leaders of the two main religious communities. It formed the basis of a consociational system that lasted for decades. After the civil war, the Taif Agreement reintroduced consociationalism, but this time more institutions were constitutionalized. However, it would be mistaken to view this as a simple contrast between informal (pre–civil war) versus formal (post–civil war) consociationalism, because even today the most important consociational institution is informal. This article traces the development and interaction of informal and formal consociational institutions in Lebanon. In doing so, it contributes not only to the consociational literature and the debate about the merits of liberal versus corporate consociations, but also to New Institutionalism and questions about the relative strength of formal versus informal institutions.