三十年来日本的政治转型与政党体制变化

20世纪70年代末到本世纪初的30年是日本政治、经济和社会结构发生重大转型的时期。从政治发展的宏观过程来看,这一转型经历了三大转变,即国家发展的指导思想从"经济中心主义"向"政治中心主义"转变,国家发展模式从"国家主导型"向"市场主导型"转变,国家发展战略从"经济大国"向"政治大国"转变。从政治发展的微观角度来看,则经历了从"五五年体制"、"八六年体制"到"九六年体制"的转变;政党结构从保守与革新对立模式转向保守模式。在这一转变过程中,政治意识形态及政党均走向趋同化。目前,日本新的国家发展模式尚未最终定型,向后现代社会的转型仍在进行中。     

论社会主义与资本主义两制并存的自发性与博弈的自觉性

社会主义与资本主义"两制并存"的客观现实,致使其相互关系一直错综复杂:一方面由于"两制并存"的自发性,两者的对立与生俱来,并且一度充满刀光剑影;另一方面由于全球化进程的不断加剧以及国家利益的驱使,"两制博弈"成为当今"两制关系"的常态。在全球化时代,准确把握"两制关系"的发展态势与趋势,不仅需要深入研究"两制并存"自发性向"两制博弈"自觉性转换的历史背景与时代条件,充分认识两制关系由"零和并存"转向"双赢共处"的历史必然性,更要在摒弃"零和"思维的同时防止陷入国际合作的温柔陷阱,时刻掌握有效处理"两制关系"的主动权,努力营造有利于社会主义事业发展的优良环境。     

与世界三十年互动中的中国对外战略转变

从20世纪70年代末开始,伴随着世界经济全球化、世界范围内政治经济制度的多元化以及和平与发展成为世界系统的支配因素,中国对外战略逐步实现了从"三个世界"到"一个世界"、从"敌友外交"到"伙伴外交"、从"意识形态外交"到"经济外交"、从"低层次对外开放"到"全方位对外开放"、从"和平共处"到"和谐共处"的适应性转变。中国对外战略的转变是中国与世界在三十年互动中完成的,是世界系统的支配因素作用与中国自觉选择的结果,它体现了和平、合作、共同发展的理念,实现了中国国家利益、国家发展目标和国际行为与世界的和平与发展两者间的协同,推动着中国和世界沿着繁荣稳定的方向前进。     

百年未有之大变局下的阿拉伯民族主义兴衰

从奥斯曼帝国解体到2020年阿联酋与以色列建交,阿拉伯民族主义历经百年兴衰.二战后,泛阿拉伯主义和泛伊斯兰主义成为阿拉伯国家加强团结、支持巴勒斯坦事业的"武器",阿以矛盾成为中东地区主要矛盾.然而,随着阿拉伯国家内部矛盾的激化,加上域外大国和中东非阿拉伯国家对阿"分而治之",阿拉伯民族主义开始让位于地方民族主义,阿拉伯世界的整体利益让位于各国的现实利益.从埃以签署《戴维营协议》到阿联酋与以色列签署《亚伯拉罕协议》,阿拉伯世界不断分化,利益诉求、安全挑战和身份认同日益多元化.在百年未有之大变局下,为了在海湾地区应对伊朗的威胁以及在东地中海地区应对土耳其的挑战,部分阿拉伯国家选择与以色列"化敌为友",多极化的"新中东"格局已现端倪.     

名家评刊

<正>谁在东亚惹是生非,制造紧张?王嵎生(中国国际问题研究基金会战略研究中心执行主任)近几个月来,东亚形势好像忽然紧张起来,有点"山雨欲来"之势。从东海到南海,从朝鲜半岛到越南,美国频频出手,耀武扬威。美国一些主流媒体也配合默契,大造舆论,说什么这是由于中国"傲慢"了,低估了美国实力和"不屈的意志",军事上"不断膨胀",外交上"咄咄逼人","威胁"到东亚国家安全,"碰撞"到美国"国家利益"。如此等等,不一而足。     

循公平正义之“谱” 布依法治国之“局”

正法治兴则国家兴,法治衰则国家乱。从制定中央八项规定到修订《中国共产党巡视工作条例》,从修订《中国共产党纪律处分条例》到出台《中国共产党问责条例》,从制定《中国共产党党内监督条例》到印发《关于加强党内法规制度建设的意见》……五年来,党中央共出台或修订近80部党内法规,坚定落子"公平正义","良法"与"善治"相辅相成、齐头并进。     

中国国际传播的逻辑困境与模式转换

中国的国际传播力滞后于经济社会发展的水平。西方媒体对中国议题的"泛政治化"传播使得中国国家形象屡遭"误读"而"失真"。中国国家形象的"客观现实"与西方媒体的"妖魔建构"之间的矛盾是我国在国际传播中所面临的逻辑困境。从"防御型国际传播模式"到"主动型国际传播模式"的逐渐转换,有助于积极建构"和平发展"的整体国家形象。     

发生、演进与差异:马克思主义工农联盟理论研究

马克思主义工农联盟理论的内在差异可以从阶层分析和联合策略两个方面进行考察。马克思恩格斯认为农民各阶层具有"两头大中间小"的特点,中间阶层必然消亡,农业无产阶级是城市无产阶级"天然的同盟者"。列宁将中农放在重要地位,但俄国形势的变化使列宁联合中农的策略在"积极联合"与"消极联合"之间多次摇摆。此外,列宁还将工农联盟理论拓展到了工人与农民经济关系的层面,将工农联盟的形式拓展为发达资本主义国家无产阶级与殖民地国家农民阶级的联合。毛泽东的工农联盟理论强调对中农坚持"团结"与"联合"的策略,对富农的联合策略则经历了从"中立"到"削弱"再到"联合"的转变。     

从性质"二元"到系统关联:党内法规与国家法律关系研究的范式转换

党内法规与国家法律关系的讨论自20世纪80年代末开始,伴随中国改革开放和法治发展持续了30多年,以"理想类型"的方法进行理论构建会发现影响党内法规与国家法律关系的三种范式,即党内法规和国家法律二元界分的"性质—归属"范式;党内法规和国家法律规范体系衔接的"功能—结构"范式;法治和系统语境下党内法规与国家法律一体化的"规范—系统"范式.每一次范式转换前都可能伴随着某种方法论的视角转变,以"理想类型"方式构建的经由"视角"到"范式"再到不同"范式"转换的链条,清晰地呈现了我国法治事业推进过程中党内法规与国家法律关联方式不断被理论和实践认知与改写的历程.三次范式转换从学理上勾画出了中国特色社会主义法治体系构建的进路和图样.     

2014年6月国际形势大事述评

<正>一、从"亚信"到香格里拉对话,亚洲安全观引关注5月20—21日,亚洲相互协作与信任措施会议第四次峰会("亚信"峰会)在中国上海举行,来自47个国家和国际组织的领导人共商维护亚洲安全之道。中国国家主席习近平在会上强调,亚洲国家应该积极倡导共同、综合、合作、可持续的亚洲安全观,创新安全理念,搭建地区安全和合作新架构,努力走出     

Power and transformational and transactional leadership in public and private organizations

Ten public and 35 private organizations located in Central New York State participated in a university- sponsored research project to study the effects of organizational characteristics upon types of leadership (transformational/transactional) and power demonstrated by supervisors. Public sector organizations in which managers had low control over rewards were compared to private sector organizations in which managers had high control over rewards.

Followers perceived public sector supervisors as more inspirational by their followers and they used more active management-by-exception behavior than those in private organizations. Private sector supervisors had more reward, legitimate and coercive power than supervisors in public sector organizations.     

Natural Resources and Small Island Economies: Mauritius and Trinidad and Tobago

Abstract

Historically, small economies, especially resource-rich ones, underperformed on average relative to their larger counterparts. Small island economies appear still more disadvantaged due to remoteness from both markets and agglomeration economies. Yet a comparison of two small island economies with similar initial conditions other than their mineral endowment suggests that policy outweighs size, isolation and resource endowment in determining economic performance. Resource-poor Mauritius adopted an unfashionable policy of export manufacturing that systematically eliminated surplus labour, which drove economic diversification that sustained rapid GDP growth and political maturation. Like most resource-rich economies, Trinidad and Tobago pursued policies that absorbed rent too rapidly, which impeded diversification and created an illusory prosperity vulnerable to collapse.     

Russian stereotypes and myths of Ukraine and Ukrainians and why Novorossiya failed

This article discusses two inter-related issues. Firstly, the factors lying behind Russia's fervent belief that its Novorossiya (New Russia) project, aimed to bring back to Russia eight oblasts of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kharkiv, Dnipro, Zaporizhhya, Odesa, Mykolayiv, and Kherson in eastern and southern Ukraine and launched during the 2014 “Russian Spring,” would be successful. Russian identity misunderstood, and continues to misunderstand, Ukraine and Ukrainians through stereotypes and myths of Ukraine as an “artificial state” and Ukraine's Russian speakers as “fraternal brothers” and Russians and Ukrainians as “one people” (odin narod). Secondly, why Ukrainian national identity was different than these Russian stereotypes and myths and how this led to the failure of the Novorossiya project. Russian stereotypes and myths of Ukraine and Ukrainians came face to face with the reality of Russian-speaking Ukrainian patriotism and their low support for the Russkij Mir (Russian World). The article compares Russian stereotypes and myths of Ukraine and Ukrainians with how Ukrainians see themselves to explain the roots of the 2014 crisis, “Russian Spring,” and failure of Russian President Vladimir Putin's Novorossiya project.     

现代化与未成年人犯罪

未成人犯罪随着现代化的发展而发展，这可以说是一种国际现象。在现代化进程中，我国未成年人犯罪大量增多的原因在于：未成年人生理、心理发展不平衡，家庭教育存在缺失，学校教育存在不足，社会上存在着很多消极因素。在现代化进程中，必须采取有效对策，控制未成年人犯罪增多，才能保障未成年人健康成长。     

Earnings and ethnicity in Trinidad and Tobago

This study employs 1993 Continuous Sample Survey of the Population (CSSP) data for Trinidad and Tobago to investigate the determinants of earnings by ethnicity. The data, organised into three ethnic groupings, reveal lower levels of remuneration in the labour market for Africans and Indians than for individuals of other ethnicities taken as a whole. While the larger portion of the earnings differentials generally appears to be explained by ethnic differences in characteristics valued by the labour market, Africans and Indians would benefit substantially if they were to receive the same rates of remuneration for their educational endowments as workers of other ethnicities in the Trinidad and Tobago labour market. Notwithstanding Indians’ lowest average earnings, Africans appear more likely to be discriminated against.     

Country size and economic growth and development

This paper attempts to provide limited empirical evidence on the nature of the relationship between country size and rates of economic growth and levels of economic development, and on the possible effects of trade concentration and dependence on trade on this relationship. It suggests that there is no discernible association between country size and economic development, nor between country size and economic growth, and that neither the dependence on trade of small countries nor their commodity and geographic export concentration are necessarily important factors in economic growth and economic development.     

Government and Corruption: Scylla and Charybdis

Using public sector employment and corruption perception data for 72 countries across the world, this article demonstrates that despite common notion countries with “smaller” governments do not tend to have lower corruption. Under general assumptions, one can demonstrate that there is an optimal size of public sector employment corresponding to the highest capital intensity. The model has several implications: lower optimal sizes of governments for labor intensive countries and higher sizes for capital intensive ones, possibility to reduce corruption paying a cost of suboptimal output, and a higher “price” of an oversized government for labor intensive countries.     

“两抢”犯罪的趋势与防控

根据最近16年的统计数据，我国“两抢”犯罪总体呈上升态势，且出现多方面的特点。当前，影响“两抢”犯罪变化趋势的因素主要有：社会管理机制完善的程度、社会成员之间收入的差距、“两抢”犯罪主体特点、社会成员的防范意识以及公安机关的防控机制等。预防“两抢”犯罪需要整个社会尤其是公安机关的共同努力。