中国与拉美国家关系中的美国因素

近年来,中国与拉美国家的关系持续快速发展引起美国特朗普政府的警惕,美国采取多重手段公开阻扰中拉合作,包括在拉美事务上频频发表反华言论、加大打击拉美左翼政权、拉拢右翼政权组建"反华阵营",并警告与中国新建交的拉美国家。特朗普政府施压手段取得了一定成效,部分拉美国家对华态度有所调整,但从长远看,基于中美关系、美拉关系及中拉关系的本质特点,未来中拉合作仍将保持良好势头。不可忽视的是,美国将继续阻扰中拉关系发展。中国应妥善应对中拉关系中的美国因素,保证中美拉三边关系良性互动。     

面对“中等收入陷阱”:中国和拉美的选择——中国社会科学论坛(2012年国际问题)“变化中的世界经济:中国和拉美及加勒比的选择”综述

2012年5月8日,中国社会科学论坛(2012年国际问题)在北京新闻大厦隆重召开。作为中国社会科学院的学术品牌之一、中国唯一的拉丁美洲和加勒比问题年度国际论坛,本论坛从2005年至今已经连续举办了八届,此次年度论坛的主题是     

“Ultimate Destiny” Delayed: The Liberals,the Organization of American States,and Canadian Foreign Policy, 1963–1968

Until Canada joined in 1990, the issue of its membership in the Organisation of American States bedevilled Canadian foreign policy, which many observers saw as a decisive test of Ottawa’s interest in Latin America. Under the Liberal government of Lester Pearson, prime minister from 1963 to 1968, and the stewardship of his secretary of state for External Affairs, Paul Martin, Canada seemed poised to join OAS. But a mixture of foreign and domestic factors—including American intervention in the Dominican Republic, Cuba’s isolation within the hemisphere, and growing Canadian nationalism—ruined this initiative. Using the Pearson government’s policy toward the OAS as a lens through which to explore the direction of Canadian foreign relations in the 1960s, this analysis also examines competing views of Canada’s place in the world.     

Failure after 1441: Bush and Chirac in the UN Security Council

The unanimous passage of Security Council Resolution 1441 marked the onset of the most severe crisis of legitimacy that the United Nations has faced in the post-Cold War period. While some have asserted that the diplomatic clashes between erstwhile allies France and the United States were inevitable given the rise of American unipolarity, an analysis of events leading to the failed US attempt to gain a second resolution reveals that the outcome was among the least preferred for both participants. Using the Verbs In Context system, we conduct a computer-based content analysis of the public statements of the United States and French leaders. Our findings suggest that the diplomatic breakdown was exacerbated by each leaders' elevated sense of control over the situation and their inaccurate perception of their opponent's preferences.     

Non-Alignment and Beyond: India’s Interest in Latin America, 1961–1972

ABSTRACT

Between 1961 and 1972, Latin America came to capture India’s diplomatic imagination. Officials within India’s Ministry of External Affairs identified strengthened ties with the region as a way to augment, restrain, and transcend the Non-Aligned Movement, further India’s international prestige and political influence, spread Indian culture, and bolster India’s economy. India’s interest in Latin America climaxed after Prime Minister Indira Gandhi prioritised the region and Pakistan strengthened diplomatic relations with Panama in autmn 1967. Yet uncertainty over the internal realities of Latin America hindered any Indian pivot. In the end, India’s aspirations for Latin America failed to materialise.     

Theodore Roosevelt: Imperialist or Global Strategist in the New Expansionist Age?

This article argues that as the first modern US president and an innovative shaper of American foreign relations, Theodore Roosevelt launched the rising United States on the world stage as a major actor in power politics, that American diplomacy came of age with him and not with Woodrow Wilson, and that the secular pragmatist who succeeded because he was abreast of the times should not be begrudged the laurels that are so often bestowed on the religious-minded visionary who failed because he was ahead of his time. In American historiography Wilson has often eclipsed—unfairly and erroneously—the geopolitical and diplomatic skills, professionalism and expertise in foreign policy of Roosevelt. Even as ex-president, Roosevelt would be a force to be reckoned with. The use and misuse of a misconstrued legacy that some have tried to confiscate for their own benefit is perhaps best illustrated by presidential candidate John McCain's reverential claim that he is “a Teddy Roosevelt Republican” rather than a neo-Wilsonian.     

Not the Third World War: The Heathrow Succession Rights Affair and Anglo–American Relations 1990–1991

Whilst the British and Americans expended blood and treasure together in the Kuwaiti desert in 1991, bureaucratic blood from both sides was also visible on carpets in London and Washington. The reason was attempts to replace the access to Heathrow airport of two failing airlines, Pan American World Airways and Trans World Airlines, with American and United Airlines. This succession rights affair was one of the most difficult diplomatic negotiations ever on civil aviation between the United States and Britain. How and why that controversy developed, its resolution, and what impact on, and feedback from, the broader Anglo–American relationship that it had are the main concerns of this analysis.     

Open Skies and American Primacy

American statesmen have long held that peace and security depend on America possessing overwhelming power. Primacy has also meant constructing a system of world order conducive to American interests and values. To this end, America has championed the cause of greater transparency. In the mid-1950s and again in the late-1980s, it proposed the establishment of an international system of mutual aerial observation. The Open Skies Treaty, which came into force in 2002, is a triumph of American statecraft because it places Russia under closer international scrutiny and makes it more accountable to its neighbors.     

The WikiLeaks Cables: How the United States Exploits the World,in Detail,from an Internal Perspective, 2001–2010

The disclosure of more than 250,000 American diplomatic cables by the dissident media organisation WikiLeaks in 2010–2011 gained much attention in the American mass media but generated little interest for diplomatic historians. A small number of scholars explored small parts of the archive, but diplomatic historians and political scientists largely dismissed the cables as insignificant source material. These scholars overlooked important primary sources. The cables provide important revelations about American actions in every region of the world, especially between 2001 and 2010. Although United States officials and their supporters in the American mass media insisted that the cables showed American diplomats performing admirable work, the cables reveal how the United States exploits the world.     

“一带一路”倡议下中国与大加勒比地区的合作

中国与拉丁美洲关系源远流长,尤其是与加勒比国家。自1949年中华人民共和国成立以来,与大加勒比地区的政治、经济、文化关系日益密切。第一个与新中国建立外交关系的拉美国家是古巴,而巴拿马、萨尔瓦多与多米尼加则成为中国最新建交国成员。经过了70年发展历程,双边关系新纪元正在开启,特别是在“一带一路”倡议下。基于正在逐步兴起的“优势共享”理念,这个新时代亦开创了一个前所未有的新合作模式。中国与大加勒比地区关系发展所取得的经验能够展现一个新的协同合作方式。本文立足于大加勒比各经济体在同中国构建相互融合模式中发掘的机遇,并着眼于两个具体案例:“一带一路”倡议下的古巴和多米尼加,并以“双赢”原则为基础,对在特定领域深化同中国的关系提出建议,主要包括交通、电信、工业、贸易、能源、旅游、建筑业、金融、卫生和教育等领域。     

美国外交关系委员会对美国外交的影响

美国外交关系委员会作为美国历史最悠久、最重要的外交思想库,其政策设想一贯秉持服务于美国政府、美国国家利益的目的,并与政府建立了长期合作关系。本文拟简要梳理美国外交关系委员会的历史流变,考察外交关系委员会影响美国外交的方式,探讨外交关系委员会对美国外交的影响。     

美国“新门罗主义”拉美政策及面临的挑战

自特朗普政府上任以来,美国对拉美政策奉行“新门罗主义”,加大了对拉美国家的干预,反映在经济、政治和安全等领域,如鼓噪“美国优先”,大打“贸易牌”“移民牌”,使前任奥巴马政府与古巴关系正常化的努力出现全面倒退,甚至拒绝承认委内瑞拉民选总统马杜罗而另行“任命”一个代理总统瓜伊多等。当今世界处于百年未有之大变局,拉美政治、经济格局也经历着深刻变化。中国、俄罗斯等在拉美的影响力不断增强。“一带一路”倡议在拉美落地生根,深化了中拉政治、经济互信;俄罗斯强硬支持委内瑞拉加剧了美俄博弈,导致美国“后院失火”的可能性增大,迫使特朗普深度调整美国对拉美政策。这一政策调整对美国究竟意味着全球战略扩张还是战略收缩,值得探讨。特朗普的拉美政策不仅会影响美拉关系及美拉双方的发展,也将影响中拉关系的发展。本文尝试对美国“新门罗主义”拉美政策的现状、原因和影响进行分析,并考察其面临的挑战。     

“(Mis)interpreting Threats: A Case Study of the Korean War”

During the fall of 1950, many American national security officials concluded that the Chinese Communists would refrain from undertaking full-scale intervention in the Korean War. Contrary to most secondary accounts, however, officials who doubted that Communist China would intervene nonetheless drew increasingly worrisome signs from incoming verbal threats and intelligence signals. A small minority of officials in the State Department expressed considerable concern over the dangers of having United Nations forces cross into North Korea and approach the Yalu River. This growing concern and the minority of opposing voices, however, did not override the prevailing judgment—held by hawkish members of the State Department and the CIA as a whole—that China would more likely increase covert involvement in the Korean War, but would not undertake full-scale military intervention. Theories of biased assimilation and risk-taking practices have divergent success in predicting American reactions to the threat. Only further archival research can shed light on how this case of American strategic surprise comports with these theories.     

Reply to pluchinsky and rapoport comments

The on-going Kashmir conflict has metamorphosed into a formidable insurgency that has attracted extremist groups fromPakistan and elements of Al-Qaeda. Given Al-Qaeda's modus operandi as an international network based on already existing domestic extremist groups, this article argues for the resolution of the India-Pakistan Kashmir conflict as an avenue for shrinking the constituency of both Kashmiri domestic extremist groups and, by extension, that of Al-Qaeda's. Feasible options for resolutions are analyzed and an alternative proposition is suggested. An unresolved, or inadequately resolved, conflict is expected to lead the Kashmiri insurgency on a trajectory directed at the Pakistani government, possibly leading to that country's fragmentation and the subsequent expansion of Al-Qaeda's operational base. It is thus argued that the resolution of the Kashmir conflict be viewed as an integral component of the broader U.S. ‘war on terrorism’ and should compromise of delicate American diplomatic involvement in the India-Pakistan dialogue over Kashmir.     

The United States and the Peruvian Challenge, 1968–1975

This article explores United States–Peruvian relations during the rule of General Juan Velasco Alvarado (1968–1975). Velasco pursued a sharply nationalistic foreign policy, leading to repeated diplomatic dust-ups with the United States. Peruvian officials generally acquitted themselves quite well in these episodes, in part because of their own diplomatic acumen, and in part because broader geopolitical trends of the period undermined traditional sources of United States leverage in Latin America. The United States would ultimately have to wait for a change of government to recoup some of the influence it had lost in Peru under Velasco.     

Re-reading the Indian Emergency: Britain,the United States and India’s Constitutional Autocracy, 1975–1977

The period known as the “Emergency” in India—June 1975 to March 1977—is widely recognised as one of the darkest episodes in the nation’s 70-year history. Fundamental rights were suspended, whilst the courts had little or no authority. The security services received emergency powers to make arrests without explanation. Although the political, social, and economic history of the Emergency remains well known, there is nothing on the international history of this period. This analysis provides the first contribution to its diplomatic history. Examining the role played by the United States and Britain, in particular, finds basis largely on declassified papers available in the Indian, American, and British national archives as well as a survey of over 300 newspaper articles on and around the Indian Emergency.     

The irrelevance of negative campaigns to political trust: Experimental and survey results

This article examines how media and partisan mechanisms of accountability influence presidential agendas in Latin America. The authors argue that responsiveness increases in powerful presidential systems when opposition parties and free media help citizens hold presidents accountable between elections. Where presidents must contend with a cohesive, ideological opposition and effective constraints to their power, they turn to valence issues with broad appeal and over which they have greater control. A free media—one without significant economic, legal, or political constraints—pressures the president to respond to the electorate's concerns, which include crime and corruption due to the incentives that motivate news content and the media's agenda-setting powers. Analyzing more than 50 presidential terms across 18 countries, the authors show that when Latin American presidents face either free and competitive media or strong legislative oppositions, homicide rates and the level of perceived corruption tend to be lower. Thus, this study proposes that efforts to improve media or partisan environments, or both, would help address Latin America's accountability deficit and promote good governance in the region.     

Richard Nixon and Economic Nationalism in Latin America: The Problem of Expropriations, 1969-1974

During the late 1960s and early 1970s, the Nixon administration confronted the problem of how best to protect US economic interests in Latin America during a period of rising economic nationalism. After extensive debate, the president approved a policy designed to deter expropriations and rein in nationalist economic sentiment by threatening to terminate US and international financial assistance to countries that expropriated American holdings without prompt and adequate compensation. As it turned out, however, this policy was little short of a disaster. Nixon's stance heightened American unpopularity during a period when US credibility in Latin America was already on the wane, and failed to have any restraining effect on either the number of expropriations by Latin American countries or the strength of economic nationalism in the area. Informed by domestic and bureaucratic pressures and the same ideological proclivities that have long characterized American relations with the underdeveloped world, Nixon's policy on the expropriations issue ultimately proved ineffective and even pernicious to US interests in Latin America.     

“Between Two and Four”: The French Initiative and the Multi-Power Diplomatic Initiatives to Resolve the Middle East Crisis

This analysis examines one of the unknown chapters in the diplomatic history of the Arab-Israeli conflict: the French initiative of 1969 calling for diplomatic co-operation amongst the four Great Powers—the United States, Soviet Union, Britain, and France—to put an end to the conflict. The “Forum of Four” did not just attempt to mediate and achieve a compromise between Israel and the Arabs; it also presumed to define the general envelope for the agreement and dictate the path that the sides should follow toward a peace agreement. This analaysis examines the diplomatic positions of Israel, Egypt, and their superpower patrons—which conducted a “Forum of Two”—during the first months of the War of Attrition in 1969 and presents the details of the planned agreement worked out in the deliberations amongst the Powers, especially the United States and Soviet Union. It also surveys the reactions to them and the reasons why mediation failed.