America''''s Difficulties after the War and the International Political Consequences of the War

The U. S. A will succeed militarily in the Iraq war. However, it is far away from the true meaning of victory in war defined by distinguished strategic thinker B. H. Liddell Hart, even inaccessible. Using Hart's own word, the true victory in war is to attain a better state of peace and improve the quality of life for the survivors after the war is over. What await America after the basic success in Iraq are grave military and political difficulties. Moreover, there may be bigger economic and financial troubles as well.     

Reflecting on the Conception of Post-Post-Cold War Era

After the September 11th events and especially after the follow-updevelopment of the US-Russian relationship,many Americangovernment officials in the Bush team stated time and again in various     

Iraq War and the Period of Important Strategic Opportunities

The American and British war against Iraq started on March 20, 2003 not only caused heavy casualties and ecological environmental disasters but also exerted impact on regional and world security, stability and development. Even so the war is a local war, and it is unlikely to     

The Ghosts of War Criminals in the Yasukuni Shrine

On the occasion of the 60~thanniversary of the vic-tory of the world anti-fascism war as w ell as theChinese anti-Japanese w ar, when people every-where are drawing lessons from the nightm are ofthe w ar and keeping the history in m ind for thesake of m aintaining the w orld peace,Japan is stillhaunted by its idea of m ilitarism and the Japaneseleaders are also claim ing to continue their visits tothe Y asukuni Shrine w here a large num ber of warcrim inals are honored. This has triggered of…     

Looking at Current Taiwan Issue from the Perspective of the US Civil War

Sino-US relationship is one of the most important bilateral relationships in theworld.Among the various factors that influence Sino-US relations,the Tai-wan issue is of particular importance.The Chinese government and its people willnever allow the current rampant ever-growing separatist activities in Taiwan totake its own course.As the US is bound to interfere with Taiwan issue when Chi-     

Surpassing the Cold War Mentality

Five years have passed since September 11. What has been theinfluence of these events on international relations? What has changedin the world since then? The majority of scholars hold that the Sep-tember 11 terrorist attacks were essentially a key event,…     

Winning the Battles,Losing the War? An Assessment of Counterterrorism in Malaysia

This work addresses the structural weaknesses that threaten to derail counterterrorism efforts by the Malaysian government. It also highlights the links between various pre-September 11 security issues in Southeast Asia and the terrorism threat facing Malaysia at present. The limitations of the current counterterrorism approach by the government are highlighted. In addition, the paper identifies structural problems such as systemic corruption, weaknesses in border security, and inadequate private sector regulation as key areas of concern. The paper concludes by highlighting the symbiotic relationship between a successful counterterrorism campaign and the rule of law.     

Summary of the Speech at the Seminar on "International Security Order after the Iraq War

Inthisgoldenseasonofautumntheseminaron″InternationalSecurityOrderaftertheIraqWar″whichissponsoredjointlybytheInternationalDepartmentoftheCPCCentralCommitteeIDCPCCCtheChineseAssociationforInternationalUnderstandingCAFIUandtheFriedrichEbertStiftungFESofGermanyisnowopentodayinBeijing.OnbehalfofCAFIUIwouldliketoextendmywarmwelcometoguestsMr.Scharpingandotherparticipantsandtoexpressmysincerecongratulationstotheopenningoftheseminar.Itisofgreatsignificancethattodayspecialistsoninte…     

Woodrow Wilson’s Neutrality,the Freedom of the Seas,and the Myth of the “Civil War Precedents”

This analysis shows the importance of a problem of maritime law in an on-going debate between two interpretations of Wilsonian neutrality that have competed in various guises since the end of the First World War: can British blockade actions in that war be justified by American Civil War precedents? It proves that reliance on the “Civil War precedents” to justify Britain’s blockade measures was disingenuous from the beginning. British diplomats first used it in October 1914, and Woodrow Wilson embraced it to defend his mild response to British violations of neutral rights to incensed American citizens despite continuous protests from the State Department. Whilst all politicians involved knew the comparison was wrong, historians have embraced it as a justification of Britain’s illegal blockade ever since Arthur S. Link claimed it as the key to understanding Wilson’s neutrality policy.     

Models of Crisis Decision Making and the 1990–91 Gulf War

The 1991 Persian Gulf War is a “most likely” case for several crisis decision-making models. It commanded presidential attention, arose when bureaucrats were fighting over post-Cold War budgets, and evoked the strong organizational cultures of the U.S. Army, Navy, Air Force, and Marines. We use this case to assess the contexts, decision stages, and issue areas in which alternative crisis models have the most explanatory power. We find that presidents are most powerful in agenda setting, choosing among options, crises, and high-politics issues. Bureaucratic politics diminishes in crises and best explains the behavior of mid-level careerists, the formulation of options, and the shaping of post-war budgets. Most striking, even in crises organizational cultures strongly shape tactical military decisions, choices among weapons systems, and the willingness of officials to risk their careers on behalf of their organizations’ values. Overall, these findings argue for greater attention to the influence of organizational cultures in crises.     

Regard History as a Mirror and Create a New World of Peace,Development and Cooperation—In Commemoration of the 60~(th) Anniversary of the Victory of the Chinese People''''s War of Resistance Against Japanese Aggression and the World''''s Anti-Fascist War

The year 2005 marks the 60th anniversary of the victory of the Chinese People's War of Resistance Against Japanese Aggression and the world's anti-fascist war. China and many other countries have held all kinds of activities to commemorate this event that has most deeply impacted human history. The Second World War, the crudest war that     

Learn from History to Preserve Peace and Promote Development——In memory of the 60^th anniversary of the victory of the World War of Anti-Fascism

The year of 2005is the 60thanniversary of thevictory ofthe W orld W ar of A nti-Fascism . It is alofty m ission of the m ankind to learn from historyin order to face the future, to preserve peace andto prom ote developm ent. This article covers twom ain points: one is the reflection on the W orldW ar of A nti-fascism and the other is the currentworld situation after 60years ofthe war.The W orld A nti-Fascism W ar is also called theW orld W ar Two. It w as a global-wide inhum anand aggres…     

Civil War Diffusion and the Emergence of Militant Groups, 1960–2001

In this research note, I argue that scholars of the international diffusion of civil conflict would benefit from directly measuring rebel mobilization prior to the onset of civil war. To better understand the way in which international processes facilitate dissidents overcoming the collective action problem inherent in rebellion, I focus on militant organizations and model the timing of their emergence. I use several data sets on militant groups and violent nonstate actors and rely on Buhaug and Gleditsch’s (2008) causal framework to examine how international conditions predict militant group emergence. While Buhaug and Gleditsch conclude that civil war diffusion is primarily a function of internal conflict in neighboring states, once militant group emergence is substituted in the dependent variable, I observe that global conditions affect rebel collective action. A final selection model links militant groups with civil conflict onset and demonstrates the variable performance of diffusion effects. The results indicate that many rebels mobilize in response to more global events and then escalate their behavior in response to local conditions.     

The dragon in the room: the China factor in the development of US–India ties in the Cold War

ABSTRACT

In recent years, as China has continued to rise as an economic, political and military power, there has been increasing consideration of its role in shaping US–India relations over the last two decades. However, this article, considering the period 1949–1979, shows that American and Indian perceptions of and policy toward China shaped the US–India relationship even during the Cold War. In doing so, the article seeks not just to bring China back into the story of past US–India relations, but also shed light on the China–India–US triangle of today and of tomorrow.     

Draw Lessons from History to Avoid Tragedy of War:CAFIU Holds a Discussion on 70~(th) Anniversary of the End of World War Ⅱ

<正>On the afternoon of June 23,CAFIU,the International Department of CPC Central Committee(IDCPC)and Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung(FES)jointly held a discussion to commemorate the 70thanniversary of the end of World War II.CAFIU’s Deputy Secretary-General Zheng Yao chaired the discussion.Also present at the discussion were Chinese and overseas experts,Mme.Su Ping from the Western Europe Bureau of     

The Role and Influence of the Non-Governmental Organizations on International Relations During the Post Cold War Era

One phenomenon in contemporary in- ternational relations attracting world attention is the rapid rise of a large number ofNon-Governmental Orgedzations. Especiallyafter the Cold War, Non-Governmental Organzations sprung up like mushrooms, conducting their activities in every field of theinternational community, therefore theirtrend of development merits Close attention.Situation and CausalityNon-Governmental Organizations (N-GOs) are organizations formed in particularfields or for specia…     

Is the Sum Greater than the Parts? The Terms of Civil War Peace Agreements and the Commitment Problem Revisited

The dominant theoretical approaches to civil war negotiations in the field of political science have sought to explain both the scarcity and high failure rates of negotiated agreements in civil conflicts. This historical pattern, however, has fundamentally changed in the last two decades as changes in international norms and laws, as well as the increased prevalence and competence of peacebuilding professionals, now require conflict actors to have a greater commitment toward negotiations and the enforcement of agreements. While actors in interstate wars seek to avoid accountability, civil war actors seem to embrace the opportunities that these new dynamics create to achieve broad‐based reforms across numerous areas of policy and government. The result, we suggest, is that stakeholders evaluate agreements based on their potential to accomplish an array of sociopolitical objectives. In addition, for strategic and practical reasons, they perceive that those agreements that include more reforms across multiple policy sectors will have the greatest potential. Our examination of nearly two hundred agreements found evidence that the peacemaking potential of a negotiated agreement between civil war adversaries is greatly enhanced when reforms are pursued across many different policy domains. Conversely, our analysis suggests that the greater the number of policy areas left untouched by a peace agreement, the more likely the stakeholders will be to follow that agreement with additional negotiations to enhance that agreement, or, alternatively, the more likely that violence will resume.     

Civil War Settlements,Size of Governing Coalition,and Durability of Peace in Post–Civil War States

We examine the ways in which the size of the governing coalition in a post–civil war state affects the durability of the peace. Previous studies relate the durability of the peace to the outcome of the civil war, the extent and forms of power-sharing arrangements, and the role of third-party security guarantors. We argue that the way conflict terminates and the power-sharing agreements between former protagonists structure the composition of governing coalition in the post–civil war state. Any settlement to civil war that broadens the size of the governing coalition should increase actors' incentives to sustain the peace rather than renew the armed conflict. Peace is more likely to fail where the governing coalition is smaller because those excluded from the governing coalition have little to lose from resuming armed rebellion. To test these propositions, we analyze data on post–civil war peace spells from 1946–2005.     

The ＂War of Nerves＂ between China and Japan will Be Another Protracted War

Over the past two years since his remm to power, Abe has been implementing a hard-line foreign strategy, and openly ＂challenging＂ and ＂desperately struggling with＂ China. Specifically, the Abe government has been forcefully pursuing a strategy of ＂active pacifism＂, such as ＂revising the constitution＂, lifting the ban on collective defense and modifying the ＂three principles＂ on arms export, implementing a so-called ＂overlooking the globe＂ diplomacy that takes a cold line on neighboring countries such as China and South Korea, and seeking to make joint efforts with Australia, India, the Philippines, Vietnam and USA in order to set up a sea encirclement against China. As Prime Minister, Abe not only paid an open visit to the Yasukuni Shrine, but also repeatedly denied the history of Japanese invasion in China, as well as its aggressive consequences and associated guilt.