In Times of Crisis: The Conditions of Pocketbook Effects

When and how will personal financial (aka “pocketbook”) concerns drive citizens’ political decisions? Scholars remain puzzled by the mismatch between the expectation that pocketbook voting should occur and the reality that, according to most findings, it usually does not. Using original survey data collected immediately after Iceland’s second “Icesave” referendum (2011), I first report the results of an embedded experiment that successfully evokes greater pocketbook concern. Next, I analyze the determinants of retrospective pocketbook evaluations, showing that priming effects are conditioned by political sophistication such that high sophisticates are among the most likely to report negative economic assessments. I then turn to the consequences of these egocentric views for government approval. Mediation analysis confirms a significant indirect effect, suggesting that subjective pocketbook evaluations exert a strong influence on political attitudes that has been hidden in prior work. Results illuminate the contextual, cognitive, and causal circumstances under which pocketbook effects transpire and suggest new ways in which self-interest might matter for attitudes toward international political economy issues.     

Partisan News and Political Participation: Exploring Mediated Relationships

This study examines mediators of the relationship between news consumption and political participation in the contemporary news environment. We test the differential effects exerted by pro- and counter-attitudinal news compared with balanced news on intended participation. Our primary objective is to model three paths that may link news exposure and participation: cognitive (i.e., perceived issue understanding), affective (i.e., emotions evoked by a news story), and attitudinal (i.e., attitude strength). We compare these paths across four issues, testing which is strongest. Relying on a large survey-based experiment on a representative sample of the American population (N = 2,300), we find that pro-attitudinal exposure increases intended participation relative to balanced news exposure, while the effects of counter-attitudinal news do not differ from those exerted by balanced news. Issue understanding, anger, positive emotions, and attitude strength all mediate the relationship between pro-attitudinal exposure and intended participation, with the route via attitude strength being strongest. These effects do not depend on whether exposure is self-selected or experimentally assigned.     

Local Television and Newspaper Coverage of Political Advertising

How often do the news media cover the advertising of political candidates? And how do the characteristics of the news outlet, the media market, the race, and the advertisements themselves influence the extent to which this ad amplification takes place? Examining Senate and gubernatorial campaign coverage by several newspapers and local television stations in five midwestern states in 2006, we find that coverage of advertising is quite extensive, most of it is low quality, and its volume depends both on the size of the market and the tone of the spots aired. Surprisingly, however, television stations were not more likely than newspapers to cover advertising, though television does appear to be more sensitive to negative advertising, consistent with our theory.     

Understanding support for democracy in new and old democracies in the Americas: the role of democratic experience

This article develops and evaluates a set of expectations regarding the mechanisms via which democratic experience could shape support for democracy. In line with previous studies, one straightforward possibility considered is that experience with democracy fosters greater affective support for democracy, making citizens of old democracies more supportive of this regime independently of government performance and other characteristics. Another possibility considered is that democratic experience mediates the importance of performance assessments in citizens’ judgments about democracy, decreasing the importance of economic performance assessments, while increasing that of political performance assessments. Statistical analyses of public opinion data from 23 countries in the Americas indicate that the effect of democratic experience on support for democracy is not statistically significant. Rather, democratic experience conditions the effects of performance assessments on support for democracy. The evidence also supports the assertion that experience with democracy, and not economic development, is what conditions the effects of performance assessments on support for democracy.     

The Mass Media as Sentinel: Why Bad News About Issues is Good News for Participation

This article argues that negative news coverage of politically relevant social issues stimulates political participation by shaping citizen awareness of collective problems and interest in politics. By drawing citizen attention to social problems that government may attend to, the press acts as a sentinel for the mass public, cuing them to periods when participation is more important. Drawing on an analysis of the 1974 National Election Study in combination with the Center for Political Studies' content analysis of newspapers, I find evidence that bad news about issues is good news for participation.     

Parliamentary Questions,Newspaper Coverage,and Consumer Confidence in Times of Crisis: A Cross-National Comparison

This article investigates the interactions among parliamentary questions, newspaper coverage on the economic crisis, and consumer confidence. It focuses on France, Spain, Germany, and the Netherlands for the period 2005–2016. Based on insights from political agenda-setting and media effects research, we expect multidirectional relationships to be present. Parliamentary records and newspaper archives are used to analyze the monthly amount of attention for the economic crisis. Pooled time series models and vector autoregression analyses are employed to demonstrate that indeed, politicians, journalists, and citizens depend on one another, but also that remarkable cross-national and over-time differences exist. In the countries where the economy was severely damaged by the crisis (France and Spain), news coverage is less strongly affecting both parliamentarians and citizens. However, when the economic situation worsens, political agenda-setting influences get stronger,while media effects on consumer confidence becomeweaker over time.     

Liar,Liar, Pants on Fire: How Fact-Checking Influences Citizens’ Reactions to Negative Advertising

Electoral campaigns are dynamic and an important change in recent elections is the growth of fact-checking; the assessment of the truthfulness of political advertisements by news media organizations and watchdog groups. In this article, we examine the role that fact-checks play in shaping citizens’ views of negative commercials and political candidates. We rely on an Internet survey experiment where we vary people’s exposure to negative advertisements and a follow-up fact-check article (i.e., no fact-check, accurate fact-check, inaccurate fact-check). The results of our experiment show that fact-checks influence people’s assessments of the accuracy, usefulness, and tone of negative political ads. Furthermore, sophisticated citizens and citizens with low tolerance for negative campaigning are most responsive to fact-checks. The fact-checks also sway citizens’ likelihood of accepting the claims made in the advertisements. Finally, negative fact-checks (e.g., fact-checks challenging the truthfulness of the claims of the negative commercial) are more powerful than positive fact-checks.     

Elite Polarization and Public Opinion: How Polarization Is Communicated and Its Effects

Elite polarization has reshaped American politics and is an increasingly salient aspect of news coverage within the United States. As a consequence, a burgeoning body of research attempts to unravel the effects of elite polarization on the mass public. However, we know very little about how polarization is communicated to the public by news media. We report the results of one of the first content analyses to delve into the nature of news coverage of elite polarization. We show that such coverage is predominantly critical of polarization. Moreover, we show that unlike coverage of politics focused on individual politicians, coverage of elite polarization principally frames partisan divisions as rooted in the values of the parties rather than strategic concerns. We build on these novel findings with two survey experiments exploring the influence of these features of polarization news coverage on public attitudes. In our first study, we show that criticism of polarization leads partisans to more positively evaluate the argument offered by their non-preferred party, increases support for bi-partisanship, but ultimately does not change the extent to which partisans follow their party’s policy endorsements. In our second study, we show that Independents report significantly less political interest, trust, and efficacy when polarization is made salient and this is particularly evident when a cause of polarization is mentioned. These studies have important implications for our understanding of the consequences of elite polarization—and how polarization is communicated—for public opinion and political behavior in democratic politics.     

Economic Policy,Political Constraints,and Foreign Direct Investment in Developing Countries

As foreign direct investment (FDI) has become increasingly important in the world economy, a large body of literature has emerged regarding the determinants of FDI flows. Some scholars argue that democracy attracts FDI through the mechanism of political constraints, which reduce the risk of negative policy changes. However, the value of policy stability should be conditional on the attractiveness of contemporary FDI-relevant policies. I therefore propose a theoretically more comprehensive argument: political constraints are attractive to investors when the host country policy environment is FDI-friendly, because these political constraints reduce the probability of negative policy changes in the future. When the policy environment is hostile to FDI, on the other hand, political constraints will have little positive effect, and, to the extent they indicate that FDI-relevant policies are unlikely to improve, may even deter FDI. This argument helps explain why the positive relationship between democracy and FDI seems to emerge after a global shift toward FDI-friendly polices. I find robust empirical support for the argument in tests covering more than 100 developing countries from 1970 to 2014, indicating significant effects using a variety of policy and political constraint measures.     

Challenging the State: Effect of Minority Discrimination,Economic Globalization,and Political Openness on Domestic Terrorism

Discrimination against minority groups is a robust predictor of domestic terrorism. However, economic and political openness might further facilitate mobilization of such aggrieved sections of a larger population. This study relates economic and political openness to minority discrimination in explaining vulnerability to domestic terrorism. Terrorism is a rational choice when a minority’s deprivation of public good provisions increases, while global economic integration and limited political openness facilitate rebel mobilization. Using data on 172 countries, I find strong support that countries discriminating against minority groups are more likely to experience domestic terrorist attacks when their economic and political systems open up.     

Opinion Formation in Social Media: The Influence of Online News Dissemination on Facebook Posts

ABSTRACT

This study aims to explore the influence of online news dissemination on public opinion in social media and examine what factors determine the influence. Online news stories (N=51) from 37 sources and Facebook posts (N=317) on the construction of Africa’s first modern international railway line, the Ethiopia-Djibouti railway line, were retrieved between June and November 2017 for the period April 11, 2012 to November 30, 2017. Comparative content analysis of online news and Facebook posts revealed that there was positive correlation between frame repetition by news media and prevalence of the frame in social media opinion. The results showed that there were statistically significant associations in the presence of positive as well as negative frame tones between news articles and Facebook posts. However, the relationship in the use of neutral frame tone between news and opinion was not significant. Regarding composition, short news stories exert more influence on social media opinion than longer news articles, as indicated by negative correlation between news article length and its influence on opinion. Overall, the results suggest that online news dissemination strongly influences opinion formation in social media.     

Public support for the international economic organizations: Evidence from developing countries

Public opinions regarding the international economic organizations (IEOs; the IMF, World Bank, and WTO) are understudied. I contrast five lines of argument using a multi-country survey of developing countries, focusing on evaluations of the economy, skills, gender, and ideology and measures of involvement with the organizations themselves. At the individual level, respondents have negative views if they have negative views of the state of the economy. More educated respondents are more likely to have negative views of the IEOs. Women are more likely to have positive views of the IEOs than men. National levels of engagement with the IEOs also affect public evaluations of them. Evaluations of the state of the economy are more influential determinants of IEO evaluations in states that receive IMF and World Bank loans, as well as in states that are active in WTO dispute resolution.

---

Electronic supplementary material  The online version of the article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorised users.

Compensator,Amplifier, or Distractor? The Moderating Role of Informal Political Talk on the Effect of News Media Use on Current-Affairs Learning Among First-Time Voters

With an increasing number of young people turning away from traditional news sources, an important question for democracy is whether alternative sources can help learning about politics and current affairs. In this study, we examine to what extent informal political talk with friends, family, and peers narrows or widens knowledge gaps amongst young people by compensating those with low news media use (“helping the poor”), amplifying news media effects amongst those with high news media use (“the rich get richer”), or distracting those with high news media use (“taxing the rich”). To test these different potentials, we take advantage of a four-wave panel study fielded ahead of the Danish National Election in 2015 among a sample of Danish first-time voters (ages 17 to 21). Our results show that informal political talk functions mostly as a compensator by informing those with low news media use about current political affairs and thereby helps decrease knowledge gaps caused by different levels of news media use.     

全球经济衰退对东南亚经济的影响及危机应对

美国金融危机演变为全球性经济衰退之后，对东南亚的虚拟与实体经济造成了沉重的打击。随着美国金融危机“溢出”效应的加强和全球经济形势的恶化，东南亚经济在2009年面对更为严峻的挑战与考验。东南亚各国在采取各种积极灵活的应对举措的同时，大力推进东盟区域内部的经济整合，加大泛区域甚至跨区域的经济合作，并积极争取外援，以最大限度地减少全球经济衰退对东南亚经济的冲击。     

经济政策调整将决定俄罗斯经济的未来发展

1999—2001年,俄罗斯经济呈现出迅速恢复的势头,国内生产总值增长了19．7%,工业增长了30．4%,投资增加了33．5%。但是,喜中有忧,俄罗斯经济受若干国内和国际因素的制约,这些因素的变化将对俄罗斯经济的未来发展产生决定性的影响。能否根据这些因素的变化及时地对经济政策作出调整,关系到俄罗斯经济的未来发展。     

当前日本经济形势及中日经济关系的新变化

自 2 0 0 2年以来 ,日本经济的各项指标基本上都在恶化 ,惟独出口保持旺盛的增长势头。展望 2 0 0 3年度的日本 ,经济增长依旧要靠外需拉动 ,对亚洲经济特别是对中国经济增长的依赖性不断增强。相应地 ,中日两国的经济磨擦也在从贸易领域发展到金融领域 ,最近日本政府要求人民币升值的动向充分证明了这一点。     

包容性增长视角下泰国旅游经济发展模式研究

通过泰国案例研究发现,战略规划旅游经济的包容性增长,从“产业均衡”、“机会均等”、“财政包容”、“权利保障”四个方面,推动经济与社会的协同发展。旅游管理的善治与政府相关机构高效运作、旅游经济的稳定增长与生产性就业的增加、旅游社区社会包容性与均等经济发展机会、旅游对弱势群体扶贫安全保障四个方面,构成了泰国旅游经济包容性增长模式的核心。     

Do National Economic and Political Conditions Affect Ideological Media Slant?

Political scientists are interested in the influence of the news media on politics. However, relatively few studies investigate whether or not ideological slant in news coverage changes systematically over time. If it changes systematically, what factors explain the changes? This study argues that external conditions, such as national political and economic situations, influence ideological media slant at the aggregate level. To examine this argument, “macro media bias” is measured quarterly by gauging the relative size of liberal and conservative news stories regarding domestic issues from 1958 through 2004. Utilizing ARIMA models, this study reveals that the news media tend to negatively react to government spending. Also, economic conditions, such as unemployment and inflation, significantly explain changes in the relative number of liberal and conservative news stories.

[Supplementary material is available for this article. Go to the publisher's online edition of Political Communication for the following free supplemental resource(s): the coding keywords, detailed coding rules, and alternative regression results.]     

Japanese political economy revisited: diverse corporate change,institutional transformation,and Abenomics

Abstract

This introductory article to the special issue on “Japanese Political Economy Revisited: Diverse Corporate Change, Institutional Transformation, and Abenomics” starts with a short summaryof the changing perceptions of Japan's political economy from its meteoric rise as worldwide leading model in the 1970s and 1980s to its demotiontoa problem and reform case since the later 1990s. Based on this overview, it identifies some striking issue and open questions in this conventional view of Japan's political economy as problem and the high expectations on Abenomics as Japan's current economic reform programme. Then we discuss the articles of the special issue and their new contributionsto a better understanding of the developments at the corporate level as well as institutional change and economic reforms at the macro level in the last two decades. Finally, this introductory article ends with a short outlineof a new research programme and four central research questions about the Japanese political economy.     

TV News and the language of acid rain in Canadian‐American relations

This study focuses on American television news coverage of a specific issue, acid rain, in Canadian‐American affairs. It attempts to bring into focus the interaction of the formal characteristics of the news and political orientations of the viewing audience to offer an alternative approach to the pluralistic models that dominate media and foreign policy research. Finally, the study offers several strategic propositions describing the relationship of news language to political responses for this particular case of Canadian‐American affairs.