中日关系进入新的历史转型期——兼论两国增强战略互信的路径选择

中日两国在明显增多的不和谐噪音中迎来了邦交正常化40周年。人们注意到,近年来两国在各个领域的交流、合作取得巨大进展的同时,一些结构性的矛盾与对立逐渐凸显。中日两国缺乏战略互信已成为影响双边关系健康、稳定发展的最大障碍。一定要从战略高度认识和把握中日关系的大局,扩大两国共同战略利益的交汇点,克服彼此间的隔阂和疑虑,将中日关系推进到新的阶段。     

Interorganisational Relations and Goal Consensus: An Exploratory Study in Two Local Dutch Service Delivery Networks

The present study explores how similarity in policy preferences within pairs of organisations in service delivery networks (that is, goal consensus) is related to existing bilateral interorganisational relations. We distinguish between different types of interorganisational relations and hypothesise that stronger relations are positively associated with goal consensus. A social network analysis is performed using data on 546 ties in two complete service delivery networks in a medium-sized city in the Netherlands. Results indicate that the strongest association is between goal consensus and types of interorganisational relations that imply more strategic information exchange between members of the organisations – especially managerial interaction.     

Poland's conception of European security and Russia

This article examines the problem of contemporary bilateral relations between Poland and Russia. Its thesis largely attributes the rivalry of these two states in Eastern Europe to conceptions relating to the balancing and bandwagoning of power. This rivalry can be put down to the fact that Polish-Russian relations are being developed within broader global processes such as Russia's relations with NATO, the USA and European Union. The greatest obstacle to the maintenance of mutually beneficial relations is the sensitive issue of security. In recent years Poland has consistently underlined its willingness to reinforce NATO's mutual defense mechanisms by supporting the organization's continued presence in Central-Eastern Europe. This issue has been compounded by Poland's striving to bring the countries of Eastern Europe (especially Ukraine) into closer affiliation with Western institutions favoring European integration, which is evidently perceived as interference in what is regarded by Moscow to be a sphere of Russian influence. This has provoked a number of serious crises in bilateral relations between Poland and Russia since the Euro-Maidan Revolution in Ukraine. Russian plans to install new (Iskander) missile systems close to the Polish border and Poland's effective attempts post-2014 to extend NATO presence within its own country testify to the scale of conflicts of interest between the two states and the lack of trust afforded by both sides. The issues highlighted in this paper are of great importance, since they not only enable the complexity of Central European issues to be more fully comprehended but also help to elucidate other global actors' conceptions relating to cooperation with Europe.     

Imperialism and the Middle Kingdom: the Xi Jinping administration’s peripheral diplomacy with developing states

This article applies the Nexon/Wright concept of ideal-type empire to the study of China’s post-2012 peripheral relations to demonstrate that the Xi administration is engaged in a concerted imperialist policy towards its developing neighbour states. Using the Nexon/Wright framework, the article demonstrates how the establishment of a China-centric regional network structure undergirds the Xi administration’s key foreign policy concepts and how these concepts, in turn, inform China’s bilateral relations with its peripheral states. To demonstrate how China employs imperialist tactics to its pursuit of a regionally based order, the article examines China’s bilateral relations with the developing states on its periphery: Mongolia, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Nepal, Myanmar, Cambodia, Lao PDR and Vietnam.     

China–CEE Trade,Investment and Politics

Abstract

The growing and intensifying cooperation between China and 16 Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries has generated extensive criticism by and concerns among EU institutions and Western European member states of the Union. According to diplomatic presumptions, China aims to gain political leverage in exchange for economic benefits in the EU through its CEE members. The following article attempts to evaluate the correlation between the quality of bilateral political relations and economic relations of China and CEE countries in order to draw conclusions on the importance or, on the contrary, the irrelevance of Chinese activity in the region.     

Rethinking the Economic Relationship between Kazakhstan and Russia

According to their governments, economic relations between Kazakhstan and Russia—the two largest post-Soviet countries—have been exceptionally solid and robust. However, statistical data demonstrate that Russian investments in Kazakhstan's economy have been weak, and that Kazakhstan has only recently increased investment in the Russian economy. This raises the question of whether relations between the two countries have been more uneven than has been claimed officially. The article also explores the influence of off-shore investments via third countries and other aspects of the bilateral relationship between Kazakhstan and Russia and the involvement of each country in the other's economy.     

Book reviews

Economic relations between China and Latin America have grown rapidly over the past decade. This paper documents the growth of trade, foreign direct investment (fdi) and other financial flows between China and Latin America and identifies the interests of China in the region as a source of raw materials, a market for exports of manufactured goods and an area of diplomatic competition with Taiwan. It points to the asymmetric nature of the relationship in terms of the relative importance of bilateral trade to each partner, the composition of trade flows, and the balance of fdi flows. It shows that these show many of the characteristics of centre–periphery relations. However, China is far from becoming a new hegemonic power in Latin America and the latter's relations with the USA and Europe continue to be more significant than those with China.     

中国和东盟互联互通的意义、成就及前景——纪念中国-东盟建立对话关系20周年

基础设施的互联互通，是深化中国与东盟关系、推进双方合作的重要基础和前提。今年是中国和东盟建立对话关系20周年，中国和东南亚基础设施的互联互通为双方未来关系的进一步发展搭建起更加便捷的桥梁。从这一角度出发，本文主要阐述中国与东南亚基础设施互联互通的意义，介绍中国与东南亚基础设施互联互通建设取得的成就，探讨今后的发展前景。     

Negotiating interference: US democracy promotion,Bolivia and the tale of a failed agreement

Since 2009 the USA and the Bolivian government have been trying to fix their broken diplomatic relations. These negotiations culminated in 2011 in the signing of a bilateral agreement but, ultimately, failed to establish a basis for mutually acceptable development aid relations. This article analyses these negotiations and suggests a partial explanation that accounts for their dynamics and results. Specifically it shows how the negotiations have pitted Bolivian demands for state sovereignty and mutual respect, based on an egalitarian understanding of inter-state relations, against the US emphasis on common obligations and universal rights, informed by a non-egalitarian notion of liberal hegemony.     

International Migration: Pacifier or Trigger for Military Conflicts?

Whereas the impact of trade relations on conflict has been studied extensively, this is not the case for the impact of international migration. The latter might influence the size of expected costs and benefits, and hence the likelihood of military conflict between countries. In this paper, we discuss the channels through which bilateral migration can affect the prevalence of interstate military conflict. We then estimate migration’s impact on conflict using bilateral panel data between 1960–2000. We find evidence of a positive and robust impact of South-North and South-South migration on the occurrence of conflict. These effects are even larger when we control for potential endogeneity using a GMM approach.     

2011年的美中关系：从脆弱到实质性稳定

美中关系在经过2010年的跌宕起伏后,于2011年转向稳定并开始取得实质性改善,其明显标志就是胡锦涛年初对华盛顿的国事访问以及2011年5月第三轮美中战略与经济对话的举行。中美关系正在从＂不稳定＂或＂脆弱的稳定＂朝着＂实质性的稳定＂迈进。鉴于两国关系的客观复杂性、这种关系的全球性特征、两国不同的政治社会制度、两国的规模大得惊人的经济和军事力量以及相互重叠的国家安全利益,相互之间存在竞争是很自然的,但这并非一种冷战式的竞争。未来美中关系很可能仍将是一种合作和竞争的混合体,我们的使命就是要扩大合作范围并管理和减少竞争范围。     

入盟后中东欧国家的发展困境

加入欧盟后,中东欧国家面临新的发展困境。这些困境表现在认同、政治思潮、双边关系、增长模式、安全和地缘政治等方面。造成困境的原因包括中东欧国家发展中的自身问题、欧盟结构和政策,以及欧洲与大西洋之间关系的影响等。目前,政治思潮、双边关系和经济增长模式困境的消极性和危害已经凸显,其他困境的潜在消极性亦不时显现。正确认识和多方参与化解这些困境已经成为中东欧国家、欧盟甚至美国所面临的挑战。     

Sino-Ghana bilateral relations and Chinese migrants’ illegal gold mining in Ghana

ABSTRACT

This article examines the participation of some Chinese migrants in illegal gold mining (known as galamsey) in Ghana, and how the Government’s policy to address the issue created diplomatic tension between China and Ghana. Drawing on primary data from in-depth, face-to-face interviews with 250 respondents and supplementary information from archival sources and personal observation, the study found that small-scale gold mining is an area legally reserved for Ghanaian indigenes, who faced stern competition from some Chinese migrants’ miners. Their ability to mobilize resources and machinery to execute galamsey virtually displaced the indigenes from their source of livelihood and caused environmental catastrophes. The Ghana Government’s policy response to the Chinese migrants’ galamsey, which led to arrests, sentencing and deportations of some Chinese miners, angered Beijing and fractured Ghana–China diplomatic ties. But the dispute could not collapse the entrenched bilateral relations between the two nations because the calculated mutual benefit derived from the relations was thought to be higher than the Chinese galamsey issue. Policy reforms which legally integrate Chinese migrants’ miners into the small-scale mining sector would stop galamsey and strengthen Sino-Ghana relations.     

Evolving Thinking and Policies of China's Diplomacy and China-EU Relations

Evolutions and readjustment permeate China’s diplomatic policy in the six decades’ history of PRC, thanks to the tremendous changes happened to both the world and PRC. Enormous opportunities and challenges to China coincide in the present world. China and EU are rising with bigger role to play in the world, though daunting challenges to bilateral relations beckon.     

The Topography of Sino–Romanian Relations in the Post-Cold War Era (1990–2015)

This article looks, from a Romanian perspective, at developments in Sino–Romanian relations over the past 25 years, with a focus on two factors that shaped bilateral cooperation: the political matrix of interactions and the mutual pursuit of economic and security benefits. In this context, the article argues that, although the existing pattern of cooperative outputs and the two states’ behavioural dynamics were largely by-products of a divergent interplay of endogenous variables and exogenously-articulated influences, Sino–Romanian relations in the post-1989 era were mainly characterised by an adaptive inertia, circumscribed by a tradition of tacit, formal, and informal (positive) cooperation.     

Czech and Slovak Relations with China: Contenders for China's Favour

This study examines the prospects for new European Union (EU) member countries in pursuing their foreign policy objectives in relations with China. Both the Czech Republic and Slovakia cherished an idea of making China an alternative economic partner. However, after 1989, China perceived these states as minor, almost unimportant partners, regardless of their efforts. Their profile was raised by EU accession but there was little change in their strength in terms of bilateral relations with China. The article investigates the failures and partial successes of the Czech and Slovak relationships with China, comparing their different approaches to the balance between focusing on political and human rights issues and the pursuit of economic and business interests.     

Turkey and Russia in a shifting global order: cooperation,conflict and asymmetric interdependence in a turbulent region

The current global political economy is characterised by the intensifying economic interaction of BRICS and ‘near BRICS’ economies, with emerging powers increasing their influence in neighbouring regions. The growing partnership between Turkey and Russia constitutes a useful case study for examining this transformation, in which Western supremacy and US hegemony are under increasing challenge. Turkish–Russian relations shed light on broader themes in global political economy. First, significant economic interdependence may be generated among states with different political outlooks, in the form of loose regional integration schemes driven by bilateral relations between key states and supporting private actors or interests. Second, growing economic interdependence may coexist with continued political conflict and geopolitical rivalry, as indicated by the Syrian and Ukrainian crises. An important strategy that emerges is the tendency to compartmentalise economic issues and geopolitical rivalries in order to avoid negative spill-over effects. This facilitates the coexistence of extensive competition with deepening cooperation, as reflected in relations in the field of energy.     

论中非科技合作关系的发展历程及特点

中非科技合作关系从古至今一以贯之。从传统到现代的科技交往历程源远流长、生生不息。新中国成立后，中非科技关系完成了从自发到自觉的建构，体现出平等相待、无私援助的特点。上世纪八十年代以后，中非科技关系从援助逐渐转为合作，讲求实效、互利共赢，中非科技关系日益发展。2000年以后，中非科技关系从原则向政策、从政策向机制过渡，完成了两次大的提升过程，不断深化。2009年“中非科技伙伴计划”的提出，确立了中非科技关系的机制。中非科技关系进入一个新时期，并日益成为未来中非关系新的增长点。     

法国对外援助管理体系及对中国的启示

对外援助是法国对外关系的重要组成部分,推广法国文化是法国对外援助的核心目标,但不重视对外援助的经济利益。法国重视对特定地区的援助,并制定了"优先团结地区"政策。法国对外援助属于中央集权式管理,外交部、财政部和移民部是法国对外援助管理体系的主要构成部分,法国开发署负责执行双边援助。对中国对外援助管理体系改革的启示在于设立独立的对外援助管理机构,并完善对外援助协调机制。     

Switzerland and the EU: the puzzling effects of Europeanisation without institutionalisation

Switzerland is not a member of the EU and in 1992 refused to join the European Economic Area (EEA) treaty in a popular vote. A conservative majority preferred to keep utmost national autonomy, and consequently, relations between the EU and Switzerland are regulated by a series of bilateral treaties. This process of Europeanisation without institutionalisation has led to profound changes of Swiss politics over the last two decades. While many effects of economic liberalisation and internationalisation are similar to those found in EU countries, some specific problems like the acceleration of immigration present rising social conflict. Social cleavages between urban and rural regions, and between capital and labour are deepening. The continuous rise of the conservative nationalist Swiss People's Party and the growing polarisation between the political Right and Left have put the traditional political culture of accommodation and power sharing at risk. Twenty years after the No-vote on the EEA-treaty, Switzerland is a divided country. Why do Swiss politicians still practice consensus democracy, and what does the divide mean for the future relations between the EU and Switzerland?