乌克兰民粹主义的特征及影响(2000-2019年)

乌克兰自独立以来,政治民粹主义伴随其政治经济转型进程不断蔓延加剧。进入21世纪,虽然民粹主义政党和运动出现仅十几年,但乌克兰已然成为后苏联空间中遭遇民粹主义浪潮席卷的突出案例。在经历了2014年的政治危机和持续的顿巴斯冲突后,乌克兰政治逐步进入了民粹主义全面盛行的新阶段。乌克兰民粹主义相较整个欧洲区域具有一些显著的特征,主要表现在:反精英和反建制的极端化,强烈的反民主属性和家长制政府偏好,分裂矛盾的意识形态,过度渲染和营造社会危机,以及盲目的区域一体化期待。究其成因,可归结于该国历史上对统治精英"外来化"的认知,独立后缺乏新的民族国家认知与主流意识形态,"团结主义"的政治文化传统,以及整个社会对阶层分化和等级制度的共识。这种特殊的民粹主义,将对乌克兰政治持续产生一系列负面影响。     

Populist possibilities and political constraints in Mexico

This article defines populism (in Latin American context) as a form of politics that is based mainly upon a personalist appeal, attracts significant popular support and, if successful, significantly redesigns social or political institutions. Neopopulism is defined as a form of populism which begins outside the state as opposed to classic populism which originates within the state. The main theoretical argument is that the study of populism can be made significant for comparative politics if we emphasise the issue of institutional redesign and then conceptualise it in structure vs agency terms. The comparative question then becomes whether a particular set of political institutions is robust enough to withstand the challenge of a charismatic individual. The empirical background is that Latin America has seen a significant number of populist movements that have indeed fundamentally altered institutional structures. By the same token, there have been an even larger number of populist attempts which ultimately failed. Having made this point, the discussion then focuses on Mexico. It seeks to understand the different sets of conditions which allowed Lázaro Cárdenas to succeed as classic populist in the 1930s, Cuauhtémoc Cárdenas to come close to success as a neopopulist in the 1980s and which greatly reduce the likelihood of successful neopopulism in the near future.     

Populism in the Manifestos of Latvian Political Parties: Increasingly Used but Ineffective?

It is often stated that we live in an era of populist zeitgeist, namely, that populism today has become part of everyday politics. Despite systematic attempts to investigate the validity of this claim in Western European democracies, the situation in the Baltic states has been overlooked. This article marks the first attempt to investigate the dynamics of populism in the Latvian party manifestos by using novel research methodology to quantitatively estimate how populist Latvian political parties have become over an extensive period of time. Our findings reveal that in the last two decades populism has indeed become more widespread in Latvian party manifestos, yet it does not seem to be very effective and is largely primarily used by electorally unsuccessful parties.     

Monitoring the rise of a radical force: the British Embassy in Athens and the Ascent of the Greek Panhellenic Socialist Movement, 1974–1981*

The article deals with perceptions, conceptions and policy implementation of British diplomacy towards the Panhellenic Socialist Movement (PASOK) from its formation in 1974 until its first rise into power in 1981. PASOK, a political movement that was to dominate Greek politics for more than twenty years, entered the Greek political scene as a new, radical force that threatened Western values and interests and aspired to reshape the international orientation of the country, in a period of high Cold War tensions. It will be shown that British diplomacy, despite its opposition to PASOK, was forced by political realities to modify its policy significantly, in order to accommodate PASOK and preserve its interests in a country that was considered as a vital ally of the Western world.     

泰国民主的前景:军权、法制、金钱与政党

2007年8月19日,泰国新宪法草案顺利通过全民公投,这是继泰国军方去年发动政变以来泰国民主进程重要的一步.宪法草案通过后,泰国政治局势逐步明朗,大选也将于年底举行.但是,回顾近一年来泰国民主政治的种种怪现象,泰国民主未来的发展走向不容乐观.     

Explaining the Rise of Class Politics in Venezuela

The sudden rise to power of leftist former coup leader Hugo Chávez and the subsequent politicisation of social class raises a number of interesting questions about the sources of class politics and political change in Venezuela. Using nationally representative survey data over time, this article considers different explanations for the rise of class politics. It argues that explanations for the politicisation of class can best be understood in terms of 'top-down' approaches that emphasise the role of political agency in reshaping and re-crafting political identities, rather than more 'bottom-up' factors that emphasise the demands that originate within the electorate. The economic crises during the 1990s undermined support for the existing parties, but it did not create a politically salient class-based response. Rather, it created the electoral space that facilitated new actors to enter the political stage and articulate new issue dimensions.     

Is Populism Bad For Business? Assessing The Reputational Effect Of Populist Incumbents

This article seeks to assess whether populist incumbents affect their country’s perceived political stability and business climate. Existing evidence contends that populist governments in European democracies produce more moderate policy outcomes than their agendas would suggest. However, populist parties are still regarded as disruptive, as they are perceived to not conforming to the politics of negotiation and compromise that are central to liberal democracies. Therefore, their presence in government may generate political uncertainty and negatively affect the business climate. Drawing on a sample of 26 European democracies between 1996 and 2016, we find that populist incumbency initially generates market uncertainty, but after about two years in office, the negative effect on the business climate vanishes.     

Indigenous Peasant ‘Otherness’: Rural Identities and Political Processes in Bolivia

Since Morales's election, rural movements have become the new protagonists of Bolivian politics. Previous analyses have emphasised their active role in shaping national politics, often focusing on those organisations as a compact block. However, their relationship is marked by both cooperation and fragmentation. This article provides a narrative of Bolivian socio‐political history over the last 60 years, establishing four main phases of identitarian articulations/disarticulations. It demonstrates the high degree of interdependence and fluidity of ethnic and class identities, as well as their interconnections with the broader socio‐political context and the national legal and institutional changes.     

The Extraordinary Politics of the Tunisian Revolution: The Process of Constitution Making

To understand the current stalemate in the drafting process of the Tunisian constitution, it is important to fathom the path Tunisia has chosen to walk since President Ben Ali fled the country. This article apprehends the post-Ben Ali era as a period of extraordinary politics, i.e. a moment of explicit self-institution of society in which popular participation, following Kalyvas' analysis, aims to transform the institutions of state as well as social imaginaries, cultural orientations and economic structures. It analyses the period following Ben Ali's departure as one in which the organization of free elections and the writing of a new constitution by an elected Constituent Assembly not as a technical process of institution-building aimed at creating a new political system, but as a re-constitutive phase of the political. This phase aims at the radical transformation of power relations within state and society and strives for the re-invention of society itself.     

Populist Communication and Publicity: An Empirical Study of Contextual Differences in Switzerland

Abstract: This study analyzes the context‐dependency of populist communication and asks whether there are variations in populist communication for representatives of different kinds of parties. In contrast to previous research on European populism, which mostly considers only the right‐wing, this study includes the entire scope of political parties; thus allowing for the possibility of the diffusion of populism in contemporary politics. The empirical contribution is a multilevel analysis of speeches in non‐public and public forums (closed parliamentary committees, open parliamentary floors, and the talk show ‘Arena’) on immigration and asylum amendments in Switzerland. A so‐called populist party, the Swiss People’s Party, played a significant role in drafting the legislation. Analysis reveals that a) different public settings influence populist communication differently; b) a non‐populist party, the Christian‐democrats, employs more populist communication on average than any other party and its populism is employed more consistently across contexts than that of the Swiss People’s Party; c) but when speaking in media forms, the Swiss People’s Party employs substantially more populist communication than any other party. Thus, the type of public forum does not uniformly contribute to higher levels of populist communication, but rather the effect of forum type varies substantially by party.     

Party unity and presidential dominance: parliamentary development in the fourth republic of Ghana

Political power in contemporary sub-Saharan Africa is often portrayed as being highly informal and heavily personalised. The assumption that personalised politics is how ‘Africa works’ has led to the neglect of the study of Africa's formal institutions, including parliaments. This article assesses the position of the Parliament of Ghana under the Fourth Republic. It displays evidence suggesting that over successive parliamentary terms parliamentary committees became increasingly adept at handling legislation, and inputting into the policy process. It also shows that the parliament was increasingly able to oversee the implementation of legislation. Although the findings of hitherto undocumented progress represent a valuable nuance, the argument that the parliament became increasingly able to input into the legislative process says exactly that; while the parliament became increasingly capable of amending legislation rarely was this witnessed. The article argues that parliamentary development in Ghana has been a function of three interacting structural factors: the constitution; unified government since 1992; and political party unity. The strong partisan identities of legislators from the two major political parties – the New Patriotic Party (NPP) and National Democratic Congress (NDC) – provide the executive with extra leverage to control the parliament. Throughout the Ghanaian parliament is juxtaposed with the Kenyan National Assembly. More substantially, the article seeks to force a revision of the dominant narrative that generalises African party systems as fluid and fragmented, and African political parties as lacking any recognisable internal cohesion or ideology.     

The Political Economy of Fiji: Past,Present, and Prospects

Abstract

The present in terms of the level of economic development in Fiji can be explained by the past, and particularly the distribution of political power and resources some 140 years ago. The prominent role of the traditional chiefs, the Methodist Church, and ethnicity in the political economy of Fiji dates back to the earliest days of colonisation with ramifications for the coups of the past, the politics of the present, and the prospects for economic development. A spike in emigration of Indo-Fijians since the first coup d’état of 1987 is rapidly changing the ethnic composition of the population and with it the political economy of Fiji. The fourth constitution (in four decades) promulgated in 2013 is an attempt to break free from divisive politics of the past. If successful, then the prospects for a peaceful and prosperous Fiji are healthy.     

Youth Politics and Culture in Contemporary Latin America: A Review

Youth politics in contemporary Latin America diverge from those of previous generations. Increasingly decoupled from parties, unions, and the state, young people glide seamlessly across previously assumed boundaries: culture and politics, individual and organization, subjectivity and collectivity, virtual and “real.” This article presents findings from a systematic review of research on youth politics and demonstrates the new direction through three main categories: repression, incorporation, and exclusion, relationships between state institutions and youth identities; generational, cultural, and digital lenses, the innovative trends for theorizing current patterns of youth politics; and unsettling politics, the fusion and diffusion of youth political dexterity. The article concludes by highlighting current strengths and proposing future steps to build on this new direction.     

Party-Sponsored Protest and the Movement Society: The CDU/CSU Mobilises Against Citizenship Law Reform

In 1999, the CDU/CSU single-handedly launched an extremely successful petition drive against the SPD-Green citizenship law reform (in particular against dual citizenship). This article argues that four developments converged to explain this tactical innovation. First, Germany's political culture had become a 'social movement society', with even conservatives accepting protest as a political means. Second, the issue of immigration pressurised the party to adopt a hard-line stance in order to co-opt the extreme right. Third, the Kohl government had left a legacy of resistance to citizenship liberalisation and of populist exploitation of anti-foreigner sentiment. Fourth, the petition drive reflected the CDU/CSU's new opposition status and its internal struggle over agenda and leadership. The article concludes with a look at the CDU/CSU's subsequent use of plebiscitory tactics and the implications for the future of protest politics.     

Of cabbages and King Cobra: Populist politics and Zambia's 2006 election

Zambia's 2006 election was won by incumbent President Levy Mwanawasaand his Movement for Multi-Party Democracy (MMD). However, itis argued here that the most important outcome of the campaignwas the successful articulation of a new populist politics byMichael Sata's Patriotic Front (PF), which won a significantmajority in urban areas. Sata's attacks on foreign investors(particularly from China) for their abuse of the workforce andtheir supposedly corrupt relationship with the MMD resonatedwith urban Zambians, already angered by the negative impactof economic liberalization. PF's campaign injected popular socialdemands into what had become a moribund political debate. TheMMD government is now adopting PF policies in an attempt torestore its own urban support base. The article describes thecampaign and its outcomes, contrasting the political discourseof the MMD and PF and analysing the differences in voting behaviourbetween rural and urban Zambians. It argues that recent reliefof 92 percent of Zambia's international debt, along with therenewed profitability of the copper mining industry, have createdconditions for the re-emergence of a nationalist-developmentalpolitical framework.     

Russian Hegemony in Dagestan

Two experts on Dagestani politics examine the evolution of Dagestan's political system from the era of its first post-Soviet constitution in 1994 to the present. The complicated role played by ethnicity in a political system designed to maintain balance in an ethnically heterogeneous society is considered in light of the changes in the relationship between the federal center and Dagestan over the past 10 years. Paying particular attention to changes in Dagestan's fundamental political structure and Moscow's role in such changes, the authors also consider the implications of recent changes.     

The resurgence of populism in Latin America

Contemporary manifestations of “neopopulism” are situated in an analysis of the role of political institutions in capitalist societies, and the idea of structural and institutional crisis. It is argued that “populist” and “neopopulist” discourse alike must be understood in terms of their relationship to specific conjunctural projects for the reorientation of capitalist reproduction. This approach directs attention back to the contrasting conjunctures in which classical populist and contemporary neopopulist political projects were launched. It also provides a basis on which contemporary projects which adopt elements of populist strategy and discourse can be compared and evaluated.     

New Conventions Required: Ideas to Re-invigorate Japanese Party Politics

Over the past 20 years, Japanese politics has changed significantly. There have been many improvements over the old LDP politics. At the same time, however, the rules of the game, which were predicated on the dominance of a single political party and on factional politics, have inevitably changed, and, in accordance with this situation, the conventions that prescribed the party-political order have fallen by the wayside. Given this situation, new conventions are now required that will make Japanese politics function. This article will discuss the most pressing topics: they are the appointment of the prime minister, the political cycle, bicameralism and party politics, intra-party governance, and the relationship between ministers and bureaucrats. These rules will not derive from new laws or institutions, but will be based on new conventions agreed to by the political parties. Political parties are to be the key actors in creating the new conventions, which should provide the rules of the game for Japanese politics.