泰国政治发展的社会学分析--结构变化、精英选择与政治发展

1932年以来,泰国社会结构的变化为人们理解其政治发展提供了一个很好的线索.长时间的以小农主导地位、以保护人-被保护人关系为主要特征的社会结构为泰国军人统治提供了基础.而工商集团的逐渐崛起及其对权利和政治参与的要求,消解了军人专制统治的基础,加大了军人统治的成本,推动着军人统治逐渐放松对社会的控制,成为泰国民主政治发展的一个重要动力.而泰国精英对民主价值的选择和坚定追求则成为泰国社会结构变化推动民主政治发展的转换枢纽,直接推动了泰国民主政治的发展.     

泰国非暴力群众运动与政治转型

20世纪60年代以来,非暴力群众运动在泰国的政治转型中曾起到重要的作用.本文通过对典型案例的分析,从参与群体、形成原因、主导力量的角度,探讨了泰国非暴力群众运动的特点.同时指出,对于泰国非暴力群众运动而言,其形成并不必然代表普遍的民意,其进程并不必然遵从参与者的意志,其结果也并不必然符合民主的初衷.     

枢密院在泰国政治体系中的作用:"平行国家"的视角

作为泰国政治制度的重要组成部分,枢密院在泰国政治中的作用深刻反映了国家建设与民主政治之间的关系.作为朱拉隆功改革的成果,枢密院有助于君主加强集权,从而推动泰国的国家建设.泰国民主政治进程启动后,经过普密蓬国王及前枢密院主席炳· 廷素拉暖数十年的经营,枢密院逐渐成为国王汇聚政治资源的场所.国王通过枢密院成员的社会网络缔造了其与军队、司法机构的政治联盟,形成与民选政府相对的"平行国家",但民选的他信或亲他信政府凭借选票所代表的民意支持,冲击了"平行国家"相对于民选政府所具有的权力优势.作为"平行国家"的枢纽,枢密院通过传递信号、为政变背书及支持非民选政府组建等方式来维护"平行国家"的权威及利益.     

以国王为元首的民主制:当代“泰式民主”的文化建构

自1932年民党政变之后,泰国开始了民主化进程,但西方民主思想的传播和实践在泰国遭遇困境,使不少泰国人将眼光转向内部,以文化形式解构西式民主,同时建构本土化的民主,由此催生了沙立·他那叻时期的"泰式民主"思想。"泰式民主"理念并未随着沙立的去世而消失,而是被保皇主义者吸收、继承和改造,逐渐发展出"以国王为元首"的当代新"泰式民主"。它通过文化建构的手段,重新诠释传统君主制的"神王"和"法王"观念,使其在现代政治框架下与民主政体相适应,并升级成为一种国家意识形态,成为泰国各界普遍认可的理念,被写入宪法。保皇主义者借助无形的文化权力,一方面汲取传统思想,另一方面融合现代民主理念,将"以国王为元首的民主"打造为"泰式民主"核心思想,它对社会各方面的渗透力和影响力要远超制度化宪法所赋予的权力。     

泰国政党政治重返“泰式民主”的路径、动因与前景

泰国政党政治发展以2006年政变为分水岭,经历了"过山车"式的调整,从"西式民主"折返到"泰式民主"。2014年政变后的党禁,更是严重阻碍了政党政治的有序发展。究其原因,关键在于,在泰国政党政治的发展过程中,保守阵营面临政治资源转化瓶颈,难以在以政党博弈为主的政治架构下获得与其政治资源相称的"权力—利益"地位,从而产生政治权力结构的持续张力,引发保守与变革冲突。短期来看,保守阵营依托2017年宪法复辟以非政党博弈为主的政治架构,试图在"还政于民"后延续权力主导地位;但中长期来看,随着保守阵营衰落,泰国政党政治将在新兴力量推动下再次转向"西式民主"的政治架构。     

泰国民主政治：现状与问题

泰国民主化进程至今虽已 70年 ,但长期的军人干政使民主政治的发展一度受阻。 2 0世纪末随着军人势力的退出 ,民主政治再次获得发展 ,并在 1 997年颁布了具有里程碑意义的新宪法。本文就泰国民主政治的发展现状与问题进行了分析     

新宪法出台与泰国政治走向分析

泰国新宪法于2016年8月7日全民公投通过,并于2017年4月6日正式颁布,成为泰国1932年实行君主立宪制以来颁布的第20部宪法。相较于1997年宪法和2007年宪法,新宪法改变了国会上下两院的选举制度,扩大了上议院、独立机构权力范围,增加了修改宪法的难度。新宪法使得泰国政党地位进一步降低,实现了政党与精英阶层的分权,泰国将进入一个受控制的权威主义民主时期。     

20世纪中后期以来泰国发展模式变革的进程、路径与前景

冷战期间,泰国在军人集团主导下先后进行了两次发展模式变革,有力地推动了社会经济跨越式发展。20世纪90年代初,随着城市中产阶级的政治崛起,泰国再次进行发展模式变革,但是,照搬西方的"选举民主体制—全面自由化道路"发展模式未能取得预期成效,反而引发危机。进入21世纪,泰国新资本集团在农民群体支持下推动新一轮发展模式变革,结果在存量改革困境下,引发了严重的政治冲突与社会分裂。2014年,泰国军方再次发动政变,强行接管改革主导权。从目前来看,泰国要构建稳定、有序、可持续的发展模式,必须首先完善协商机制,并在此基础上依托中泰战略合作契机形成兼顾各方利益集团的发展共识。     

政党的素质与民主政治的发展--从泰国政党的历史与现状看其民主政治的前景

泰国的政党曾长期处于非法或半合法的状态,政党自身又存在着如无长远规划、聚散无常、无明确纲领、无有效的基层组织、党内关系完全是庇护关系、无法吸引一流人才等弊病,使得泰国的政党至今仍未成为真正意义上的政治力量.政党在相当长的时期内仍将处于为一党私利而争斗的恶性循环状态,在执政中必然是"政党行为大于政府行为".政党的这种素质将在相当大的程度上制约泰国民主政治的发展.     

再论泰国的社会结构变化、精英选择与政治发展

泰国独特的社会意识结构决定了泰国政治发展的特色.泰国独特的社会意识结构包括主-仆关系结构与德行信仰两个方面,两个方面的共同特点是强烈的物质化倾向,这一点为理解泰国政坛的频繁变换提供了一个很好的线索,也提供了预期泰国政治发展的一个思路.     

From tragedy to comedy: Political reform in Thailand

Thailand's democracy has been profoundly influenced by mass struggle and tragic bloodshed. The political freedom now exercised by Thai citizens ia a direct result of continuous mass struggle against dictatorship, the high points of which were the 14th October 1973 and the May 1992 popular uprisings. Yet, at the same time, this freedom has also had its limits defined by the brutal crushing of Thailand's socialist movement on the 6th October 1976. This has meant that the present day parliamentary system is devoid of any element of class politics. It is this, more than anything else, which is responsible for the corruption and vote-buying in the electoral system. Recent attempts at political reform, culminating in the drafting of the 1997 Constitution, results from the work of a coalition between two separate and conflicting class factions in Thai society. On the one hand, “the People's Organisations” (N.G.O.s, campaigns for democracy, peasant and labour groups) demanded more rights and participation in decision-making. On the other hand, “the modernist liberal wing of the ruling elite” wished to see more efficient and stable government. The contradictions between these two political currents can be seen throughout the reform process and in Thai politics today. Attempts to cleanse Thai politics using a reformed Constitution, new election laws and newly established “independent bodies,” such as the Election Commission and Constitutional Court, are unlikely to succeed, since they fail to address the real basis of money politics in Thailand and rely on a narrow structuralist approach. A more realistic route to political reform would rely on the mobilisation of social groups on a class basis. Only when such groups organise to push for more social equality and justice inside and outside the confines of the present structures can there be true progress.     

Withdrawal symptoms: Social and cultural aspects of the October 6 coup

Abstract

Extract

In themselves, military coups are nothing new in modern (or ancient) Thai history. There have been at least eight successful, and many more unsuccessful, coups since the one that overthrew the absolute monarchy in 1932. It is therefore not altogether surprising that some Western journalists and academics have depicted the events of October 6 1976 as “typical” of Thai politics, and even as a certain “return to normalcy” after three years of unsuitable flirtation with democracy. In fact, however, October 6 marks a clear turning point in Thai history for at least two quite different reasons. First, most of the important leaders of the legal left-wing opposition of 1973–1976, rather than languishing in jail or in exile like their historical predecessors, have joined the increasingly bold and successful maquis. Second, the coup was not a sudden intra-elite coup de main, but rather was the culmination of a two-year-long right-wing campaign of public intimidation, assault and assassination best symbolized by the orchestrated mob violence of October 6 itself.     

The Unruly Past: History and Historiography of the 1932 Thai Revolution

ABSTRACT

The monarchy and the country’s military dominate discussions of Thai political history. The country’s democratic history meanwhile is much less well known. To many people, historiography – the history of the writing of history – is a dull affair that only concerns academics. But the changing representations of the origins of democracy in the 1932 revolution that ended the absolute monarchy show the politics of history as a continuous problem that still shapes Thai society. The interpretations have been bound to the bitter partisanship that has accompanied a history of political instability. This article examines the changing interpretations of 1932 in their historical contexts and demonstrates the central antagonism towards the ideal of popular sovereignty, despite its long history in the country, that is still held by the military and monarchic elite.     

Ironic political reforms: elected senators,party-list MPs,and family rule in Thailand

ABSTRACT

An elected Senate and the party-list system are two institutional innovations of the 1997 Thai Constitution designed to support political reforms. This paper sheds light on one unintended effect of these reforms: they have allowed scores of political families to maintain or even tighten their grip on Parliament. Combining aggregate data and case studies, this paper shows that a sizable number of elected senators and party-list parliamentary members are related, by birth or marriage, to other parliament members elected in the post-1932 period. The well-intended reforms have concentrated parliamentary power in the hands of these families, many of which represent the excesses of Thailand’s full-blown electoral democracy. The survival and resilience of these families diminish reform opportunities by further entrenching corruption, clientelism, violence, and electoral fraud, as well as by deepening dynastic rule that militates against political pluralism and inclusiveness.     

Political Finance Regimes in Southeast Asia: Introduction

ABSTRACT

The three articles in this themed collection investigate the interplay between political finance regimes and the quality of democracy in Southeast Asia. Andreas Ufen's piece on political finance in Malaysia and Singapore argues that the semi-authoritarian regimes in both states have blocked the reform of campaign and party funding regulations in order to keep their opposition in check. The article on Indonesia, authored by Marcus Mietzner, showcases the country's dysfunctional political finance system as a major hurdle toward further democratization. In their contribution on Thailand, Napisa Waitoolkiat and Paul Chambers show that weak political finance regulations have contributed significantly to the shallowness of Thai parties. Overall, the collection demonstrates that without meaningful political finance reforms, Southeast Asia's democratic stagnation is likely to persist for many years to come.     

Democracy,Power and Indigeneity

This article identifies a theoretical nexus between indigeneity and liberal democracy in three post‐colonial contexts. Like democracy, the politics of indigeneity asks questions and makes assumptions about where power ought to lie and how it ought to be shared in relation to political inclusion and national sovereignty. The interaction of indigeneity with democracy highlights the limitations of liberal theory as well as the opportunities it provides to meet indigenous claims and conceptions of justice. Exploring the ideological tensions and commonalities between democracy and indigeneity allows a contrast, in comparative context, of the proposition that in Fiji, for example, democracy is “a foreign flower” unsuited to the local environment with the argument that liberal representative democracy can, in fact, mediate power in favour of an inclusive national polity.     

Correlates of Levels of Democracy in Latin America During the 1990s

Does the conventional wisdom about the relationships between economic, cultural, and political party variables and democracy stand up in the Latin American experience of the 1990s? This study, utilizing new data sets for the region, finds that some traditional hypotheses are upheld better than others. It sustains the conventional wisdom that economic development, economic growth, democratic values, and (with a two‐year lead) education correlate positively with the level of democracy. Surprisingly, however, neither social trust nor the number of political parties is significantly correlated with the level of democracy. The study suggests various possible explanations for the weak or nonexistent relationships for social trust and number of parties, in the hope that these surprising results will stimulate further research.     

‘Soft’ forms of direct democracy: Explaining the occurrence of referendum motions and advisory referendums in Finnish local government

This study investigates ‘soft’ forms of direct democracy and identifies factors that explain their occurrence. Soft direct democracy refers to non‐binding referendum motions and advisory referendums, which the literature on direct democracy has largely ignored. Strategic motives have dominated previous explanations of the occurrence of initiatives and referendums, but are less useful in exploring non‐binding procedures of direct democracy. The article distinguishes four types of factors – socio‐structural, party system, political support and learning – and tests hypotheses on their effects with sub‐national data from Finland. The data enable us to compare two different types of instruments – non‐binding referendum motions and advisory referendums – while controlling for many unobserved factors. The findings show that erosion of political support, participatory traditions and policy diffusion explain the occurrence of bottom‐up referendum motions, while the last two together with small population and party system factors predict the occurrence of advisory government‐initiated referendums.     

Leathernecks in North China, 1945

Abstract

The decisive phase of the Chinese Civil War is said to have begun during the summer of 1946, hardly a year after the Japanese surrender and about six months after General George Marshall went to China to assist the Kuomintang and the communists in negotiating toward a peaceful settlement of their conflict. The failure of the Marshall Mission and the subsequent communist victory is often seen as America’s failure–the failure of liberal democracy to provide an alternative to communism and revolution and the failure of the American war aim–to establish lasting peace and stability in Asia. But even before Marshall’s arrival in China, the united States had actively intervened on behalf of the Kuomintang and undermined possibilities for a negotiated political settlement in China.     

Bringing the Past Back in: How Attitudes towards the Democratic Transition Influence the Portuguese Voter

Abstract

This article analyses the way in which attitudes towards the transition to democracy explain party identification and ideology in Portugal. This question is important because the transition to democracy in Portugal was a turbulent process marked by a rupture with the past and institutional fluidity. It has also conditioned the main political parties’ relationships with the electorate and each other since 1974. I compare the same explanatory model results from two surveys, conducted in 2004 and 2014, respectively, to understand the extent to which perceptions about the transition help characterise the Portuguese voter over the last decade.