俄罗斯对金砖国家身份的建构——基于俄主流媒体涉金砖报道的分析2013-2014

金砖五国作为新兴经济体的合作机制,是为实现成员国广泛共同利益而形成的国际合作新模式,在当今国际政治经济舞台上发挥着越来越重要的作用。其中金砖成员国内部认同感将是保障金砖国家机制化建设的重要因素,只有增强内部认同感,才能保障金砖国家在具体问题领域开展务实合作,推进全球治理机制改革,通过国际合作来摆脱"治理困境"。本文以俄罗斯主流印刷媒体2013-2014年间对金砖国家的报道为切入点,通过分析媒介话语设置的议程,探讨俄罗斯对金砖国家身份的建构,尤其是在乌克兰危机发生后,俄罗斯面临严峻的内部政治、经济问题的情况下,俄罗斯对于自身国家利益的认识以及由此对金砖国家这一合作机制的期待。研究成果将为预测未来金砖国家合作的走向提供思路。     

社会团结与竞争力的制度安排——二战后奥地利“合作式”联邦决策机制初探

作为以"外向型"发展为主的经济体,奥地利是"小而美"的典范之一,其经济和社会发展都呈现出"合作式协调"的特点。本文从联邦决策机制入手,探讨奥地利如何通过"社会伙伴关系"、"大联盟政府"、"集权式"联邦体制等一系列"合作式"制度安排,有效地在联邦决策中协调、整合不同地区和不同社会利益群体的诉求,从而实现了"兼顾"国际经济竞争力提升与社会和谐稳定发展的目标。     

机制创新与地区合作--以东盟非正式决策机制为例的分析

东盟的"5-1"决策方式和抽象肯定、具体否定的决策惯例是东盟正式决策机制所没有的,是东盟在具体的合作过程中的一个创新,是东盟决策机制的创新;这一创新很好地解决了国家利益和地区利益之间的冲突问题,是东盟具体合作得以开展的一个重要因素.     

困境与协调:探析中俄能源合作的博弈——以俄远东输油项目为例

2009年2月17日,被称为"贷款换石油"的中俄大型输油项目终于敲定.这标志着两国间长达15年的石油博弈终于突破了重重困境,有了一个较为完满的结局.回首中俄两国15年间围绕远东石油资源所进行的一系列博弈,每一轮谈判都是一场事关国家利益的针锋相对,每一份协议的签订都体现了双方寻求双赢的妥协.本文将从博弈论的视角,以俄远东输油项目为例,从输油管线之争及石油定价机制谈判等几个方面,对中俄能源合作进行系统的梳理,提炼双方博弈策略的精髓,发掘竞争背后蕴藏的合作因素.并以此为依据,提出今后中俄能源合作的走向依旧是"博弈-困境-协调"模式.     

集团博弈与公共利益--以马来西亚政治为例的研究

作为公共利益的具体表现,无论是马来西亚的法律制度,还是其经济社会发展政策,都是一种利益博弈的结果.博弈的规则、利益集团的力量大小、策略选择是否得当都对博弈的结果即公共利益的形成具有重要影响,其中博弈规则的影响最为关键.在既定规则下,作为一个利益集团,要想在利益博弈中,尽可能取得较多的利益,必须尽可能加强自己的力量,在博弈过程中,采取理性的策略,否则可能会一招不慎,满盘皆输,自己集团的利益在制度或政策(公共利益的具体体现)中也难以得到照顾.     

2001年以来亚洲新兴和发展中经济体的资本流动与应对之策

从2001年到2007年次贷危机爆发之前,亚洲新兴和发展中经济体国际资本流动的规模逐年增加,迎来了战后国际资本流动的又一次高潮.2008年全球金融危机的爆发使得流入亚洲新兴和发展中经济体的国际资本发生了逆转,金融危机过后,其经济回升势头明显,国际资本又纷纷流入这些经济体.2001年以后的亚洲新兴和发展中经济体的国际资本流动呈现出与以往不同的一些新特点,并造成了三种结果,这三种结果使这些经济体的经济发展面临着新的挑战.     

机制设计与国际卫生合作中的困境

本文运用情景结构主义分析工具对传染性疾病国际通报合作长期止步不前这一问题进行了研究。尽管《国际卫生条例》将传染性疾病的国际通报合作塑造成具有良好合作前景的"猎鹿游戏",但由于国际合作的专业性与主权国家利益的复合性之间存在矛盾,国家往往将贸易利益的考虑置于健康的价值之上,从而使得合作陷入相互背叛的僵局。通过改善机制的设计,这一困境可以得到缓解。     

大国间应该扩大合作实现国际利益

我们需要全球视角来解决一些问题,否则我们不可能了解什么是国际利益和准确把握全球化.我们正在丧失历史的机遇,我们还没有能够建立新的国际秩序和新的国际合作和和平的框架,多边机制并不一定能完全解决在全球性话语下的新国际秩序的建立.     

地缘政治变动下中东欧国家对华政策趋向论析

自2017年特朗普政府重返中东欧之后,美西方与俄罗斯利益博弈态势加剧,导致中东欧地缘政治加速动荡。尤其是2022年俄乌冲突的爆发,给处在中美博弈新中间地带以及美西方和俄罗斯博弈前沿阵线的中东欧国家带来了前所未有的地缘安全挑战,改变了中东欧绝大多数国家对外战略的优先次序,经济利益全面让位于安全利益成为这些国家制定外交战略的优先事项。这一变化对“中国-中东欧国家合作”产生了难以逆转的冲击,本文根据中东欧国家对华政策趋向的特征,将其分为五大类：对华强硬派、合作与批评并举派、战略模糊派、对华务实派和对华友好派。总之,后乌克兰危机时期的中国-中东欧国家合作除了充分研判大国博弈因素之外,应遵循差异化和精准化的合作对策,应根据当前中东欧国家对华政策定位的不同类型而因国施策,统筹经贸、环保、人文等多个维度,协调中央和地方多层级合作。     

亚太经合组织中区域利益和成员利益的冲突与协调——APEC成立十周年回顾与展望

亚太经合组织（ＡＰＥＣ） 是区域利益的代表。作为成员利益的集中体现,ＡＰＥＣ 的区域利益主要由贸易投资自由化和经济技术合作两大部分组成。由于发达成员和发展中成员在以上两个方面有不同的利益追求,ＡＰＥＣ 中区域利益和成员利益一直存在着冲突。在过去的十年中,贸易投资自由化和经济技术合作的不平衡发展使这种冲突逐渐表面化。展望未来,ＡＰＥＣ 的持续发展有赖于成员经济体享有充分灵活性的基础上,通过协商一致,处理好发达成员和发展中成员的利益分歧     

“印太战略”背景下的中斯合作

近年来,由于印度洋战略地位的提升以及"印太战略"逐步从构想转变为现实,以美国为首的域外国家和以印度为首的域内国家不断加大对印度洋及其周边国家的政治、外交、经济、军事、安全等投入,使得印度洋的大国博弈日趋激烈。这不仅对印度洋周边国家的内外政策产生了重要影响,而且对我国倡议推动的"一带一路"国际合作也产生了深远影响。尽管斯里兰卡是印度洋上的一个小国,人口不多,经济实力不算强,在"印太战略"中也非核心国家,但其独特的地缘政治经济优势成为各方争夺的对象和大国博弈的一个重点。在此背景下,斯里兰卡的国内外政策与形势出现了许多新变化,国内政局稳定性下降,对外政策出现"摇摆",经济增长率下降,民生改善缓慢,恐怖活动增加,民众意见日益多元化,这值得我们在推进"一带一路"国际合作过程中高度关注。     

Major Changes Without Regime Shifts:Switzerland and Japan in Comparative Perspective

The literature on regime shift suggests that Japan, and perhaps also Switzerland, have experienced a shift in their political systems. In this contribution, it is argued that both political systems underwent considerable change. However, this change did not represent regime shift in terms of a break with the past. Compared to other established democracies in the OECD country group, the changes to various aspects of the political systems have been similar in magnitude and type in both countries. Among OECD members, similar new elements have been layered on to stable cores of pre‐existing institutions, actor constellations and policies differing vastly in international comparison. Therewith, most countries moved in comparable directions without significantly changing their relative position within the group of established democracies     

The Quest for a Balance of Power in Lebanon during Suleiman Frangieh's Presidency, 1970–76

This paper examines the changes in the balance of power in domestic and foreign arenas in Lebanon during the regime of President Suleiman Frangieh between the years of 1970 and 1976. Changes occurred in both arenas which influenced the stability of the regime and led the country to a civil war. In the domestic political arena, the regime ceased to rely on a Maronite–Sunni–Shiite axis and began to rely firstly on a Maronite–Shiite axis, and then on a Maronite–Druze axis. These steps aroused the Sunni establishment against the regime and led to instability. In the foreign arena, the regime exchanged their policy of neutrality on Arab and international arenas in favour of leaning towards ‘revolutionary’ Arab countries such as Syria, Iraq and Libya. This led to a rise in the influence and intervention of these Arab countries in Lebanese political affairs and escalated the turbulence on the streets of Lebanon against the Frangieh regime.     

Foreign aid,debt relief and Africa's development: problems and prospects

In recent years, the Paris club granted a number of African countries, including Nigeria, debt relief. This elicited widespread celebration in the capital cities of affected countries, where it was portrayed as a veritable launch-pad to Africa's development. This paper takes a critical look at the debt relief, with emphasis on its problems and prospects for Africa's development. It is argued that while debt relief does offer some prospects for development, there is little or no evidence to suggest that such an outcome is automatic. The conditions that precipitated the debt crisis in the first instance, including an inequitable international economic order and political conditions tied to aid, are still very present in the debt relief regime. Corruption of the foreign aid regime by both internal and external actors has been compounded by the recent global economic crisis, posing further constraints on the effectiveness of foreign aid in Africa. If debt relief must yield the desired result, it has to be accompanied by a sustainable campaign to fundamentally reform the world order to make it more equitable, together with a drive for good governance that is not only democratic, but also efficient and development-oriented in Africa.     

中国与印尼经贸关系的互补性和竞争性分析

中国与印尼的经贸关系从1950年两国建交以来,发展并不顺利,其间曾一度中断近20年之久,只是到20世纪末和21世纪初才得到快速发展.本文运用国际贸易理论和国际关系理论来重点分析两国之间经贸的竞争性和互补性,通过分析得出结论:从目前看,中国和印尼两国的经贸存在互补性,但互补性不是很大.随着两国经济的发展,新的国际分工的形成,双方经贸的互补性可以扩大.同时,随着中国人世和中国一东盟自由贸易区的建立,两国经贸关系必将得到进一步扩大和发展.     

构建“东北亚人类安全共同体”中的人类安全议题和国际机制探索

韩国朴槿惠总统自从2009年以来提倡"东北亚和平合作构想",并向美中等国家寻求支持。"东北亚和平合作构想"就是以韩国和朝鲜为主,包括美国、中国、日本、俄罗斯和蒙古等亚太国家和非国家行动主体,培养非传统安全或是软性安全热点问题合作。但该构想存在许多问题,如美国是否作为参与国加入,议题是否包含传统安全和制度化水平问题。如果美国加入,那么,东北亚区域固有的人类安全议题的选择混乱或将引起东北亚的认同性危机;议题的最终目标如果是传统安全,那么非传统安全或软性安全的重要性将被削弱;在制度化水平方面,习惯和惯例的制约性和实效性将成为问题。本文提出了作为东北亚区域内国家间的和平合作体,形成针对人类安全议题的"东北亚人类安全共同体"的方案,研究人类安全理论和国际机制并验证了其合理性。由此,确认了仅限于东北亚国家之间的人类安全范围内形成共同体的合理性。     

Building bridges? South African foreign policy and trilateral development cooperation

As questions concerning international development climb the international agenda, so countries find themselves drawn into a burgeoning number of negotiations on issues ranging from the future shape and direction of the post-2015 development agenda to ‘aid effectiveness’ and international development cooperation. Moving from the position of a ‘beneficiary’ state in the traditional donor–recipient aid hierarchy, South Africa is looking to define its own niche within the wider development diplomacy context as a development partner. This paper provides an assessment of South Africa's evolving approach towards international development cooperation, with a particular focus on trilateral development cooperation, and what this means for Pretoria's foreign policy in bridging the divide between developed and developing country positions within the international development regime.     

The International Humanitarian Regime and its Discontents: India’s Challenge

Abstract

In recent years, concerns over whether the humanitarian regime as we know it will survive a many-pronged challenge have spurred humanitarian organisations to embark on processes of soul-searching and innovation. With a steadily increasing aid budget and its more active and vocal role in development and humanitarian politics—and in global politics more generally—India has acquired the label of ‘emerging’ humanitarian actor. This article, however, shows that in many ways India has been a humanitarian pioneer, and connects the norms and values of the international humanitarian regime with India’s own philosophical, religious and democratic traditions. It also discusses how Indian policy-makers have critiqued the current United Nations-led international humanitarian regime and investigates how the government of an increasingly powerful and influential Commonwealth country from the South interacts with an international regime created in Europe. For many Indian policy-makers, current humanitarian practices are tainted by what they see as North American and European interventionist and highly political agendas in the South. The article concludes that while there is still a lot to be said for a global, multilateral humanitarian regime led by the United Nations, it need not be Western-biased, either in theory or in practice.     

Cricket and the Commonwealth

This article traces the origins of cricket and examines its evolution in Commonwealth countries. The focus is on Test-playing nations, although the discussion also encompasses newer forms of the game, including especially Twenty20 matches which have, in recent years, acquired increasing popularity. The article also examines the phenomenon of premier leagues in cricket, notably the Indian Premier League, whose emergence during the past decade or so has changed the pace and the economics of what was once called ‘a gentleman’s game’. It will be seen that the common feature in all the countries mentioned is that the game was introduced by the English and nurtured by them for what some people regard as semi political reasons. However it was the English undoubtedly who introduced the game and more importantly introduced the great traditions of the game which we still nurture and respect, despite all the efforts sometimes made to alter them. Cricket has also sometimes, been the means by which countries like India, Pakistan and the West Indies especially, have striven to beat their erstwhile masters and show their dominance at least in the field of cricket.     

Third time lucky? Establishing diplomatic relations between Russia and South Africa

Diplomatic relations between Russia and South Africa were established in 1992, before South Africa's transition to democracy was completed. This move was perceived as a betrayal by many in both countries and beyond. For many decades the Soviet Union supported the African National Congress in its fight against the apartheid regime. South Africa's National Party government, in its turn, presented the USSR as the main force behind the ‘total onslaught’ – an all-out war purportedly waged against South Africa by international communism. Yet it was with the National Party government that the Russians established diplomatic relations. This article looks into the reasons for this change of heart in Moscow and Pretoria, discusses the political forces behind the decision to establish diplomatic relations, and analyses the process that led to this event and the results of establishing diplomatic relations the way it happened and at the time it happened for both countries.