模糊盟友:联盟体系视角下的美国与土耳其关系

联盟是美国二战后维持全球影响力的重要外交工具。在其诸多盟友中,土耳其极为特殊,在两国正式的盟友关系背后是脆弱多变、充满矛盾冲突、似乎随时崩裂而又难以割舍的复杂关系。这种关系不仅在美国的传统盟友当中罕见,与美国中东战略伙伴相比也显得与众不同,因此研究美土关系具有重要的理论和现实意义。以“模糊盟友”概念构建的综合分析框架既突出地缘战略、全球化、地区力量分化重组等结构性因素对美土关系的制约,也强调两国政府和领导人的战略和政策选择在美土盟友关系转型过程中的作用。在结构性因素与过程性因素的综合作用下,美土关系从传统盟友向“模糊盟友”转变,产生的后果广泛而深远,不仅重塑美国和土耳其的地区战略,影响到地区安全秩序,也为美国的联盟体系带来不确定性。     

美国能源权力的扩张与限度

世界能源转型和气候变化与俄乌冲突、大国战略竞争叠加,在全球层面改变了国家间权力平衡,并重塑了主要行为体之间的利益关系和行为模式。美国将能源权力与话语霸权和金融霸权相结合,构建围绕化石能源和可再生能源的盟友体系。这个体系既可以通过利诱补偿来拉拢盟友和伙伴国,也可以通过威逼威慑来遏制竞争对手和敌对国。在传统能源和可再生能源领域,美国以塑造“更加安全”的世界能源体系的名义来改变全球能源格局的权力结构,利用“全产业链”优势提升自己的地缘政治影响力。由于正向权力建立在补偿机制之上、负向权力建立在不对称相互依赖之上,美国能源权力的扩张存在奖励和惩罚两个方面的限度。面对百年未有之能源大变局,中国有必要充分挖掘自身优势,将能源转型和应对气候变化的潜力转化为世界能源和气候治理中的“结构性权力”,利用清洁能源的技术优势、化石能源的市场优势提升议程设定权、规则制定权和市场议价权。     

印美"安全关系"的形成及其发展走向

近年来印美关系日益密切 ,尤其是其中的战略与安全层面引起广泛关注。“9·11”事件的发生及后续发展为南亚的战略格局带来新的变数 ,但印美强化双边关系、发展安全领域合作的趋势不会发生根本改变。印美“安全关系”的走向将对中国的战略安全和中印关系产生多重影响。但由于印、美对当前国际关系格局和地区安全的看法存有若干分歧 ,发展中的印美关系将不会是一种盟友关系 ,而是基于各自现实利益和若干共同目标的伙伴关系。     

欧美对华政策协调及其局限

随着中国的持续崛起以及欧美对华政策的转型,中国因素在跨大西洋关系中的重要性更加凸显。为了应对中国崛起、巩固跨大西洋关系以及维护在国际秩序中的主导地位,欧美加快了对华政策协调的步伐,试图围绕意识形态、经贸投资、科技创新以及全球治理等议题协调共识并采取更加一致的行动。当前欧美对华政策协调也有别于过去“美主欧从”的模式,呈现出更具机制化和更全面的新特点。在协调的过程中,欧美对华政策出现了一定的趋同,但分歧也显露无遗。欧美对华认知与政策分歧、欧盟“战略自主”倾向以及“特朗普主义”遗产的影响都将对欧美协调的深度和效果构成制约。当今国际体系的特点和中国和平发展道路也决定了欧美协调难以复制冷战时期的遏制战略,“和平共处”是欧美协调和中美欧三边关系应该遵守的基本原则。     

关于美印战略伙伴关系的再思考

冷战结束后,美印关系逐渐从相互疏远的"天然盟友"转型成为全方位合作的"战略伙伴"关系。美印战略伙伴关系开始于克林顿总统任期后期,小布什总统任职期间进一步强化,在奥巴马总统时期得到进一步发展。美印战略伙伴关系具有全方位、战略性、机制化、不平衡、联合制衡中国等特点。美印战略伙伴关系升温的背后有两国共同的利益追求但也存在诸多分歧。随着奥巴马政府"重返亚太"战略的展开,美印战略伙伴关系的发展与互动将对亚太地区安全甚至全球地缘政治格局产生重要影响。中国政府需加强与美、印两国的战略沟通与对话,推动中、美、印三国在亚太地区的良性互动,努力塑造中美、中印新型大国关系。     

欧美债务危机对国际经济格局的影响

欧美债务危机是全球金融危机后的最重要经济事件,将对全球经济格局产生深远影响：发达经济体在全球经济格局中的重要性降低,新兴经济体的比重相对增加;现有的全球经济治理机制落后于国际经济发展格局的变化,其未来改革方向仍未根本确定;国际经济治理体系仍处于转型和探索中,需要包括中国在内的新兴经济体的积极推动。     

欧美债务危机对国际经济格局的影响

欧美债务危机是全球金融危机后的最重要经济事件,将对全球经济格局产生深远影响:发达经济体在全球经济格局中的重要性降低,新兴经济体的比重相对增加;现有的全球经济治理机制落后于国际经济发展格局的变化,其未来改革方向仍未根本确定;国际经济治理体系仍处于转型和探索中,需要包括中国在内的新兴经济体的积极推动。     

欧美关系的新变化及前景

当前欧美关系与布什时期相比出现了一些新动向,其中最重要的变化是,美国外交政策"向欧洲大幅靠拢",欧洲国家政府和民众"全面亲美".跨大西洋关系重新焕发生机和活力,是欧美双方因各自实力下降而产生的内在需求与国际格局发生深刻变化所带来的外部压力相互作用的结果.未来欧美关系不大可能出现布什时期的剧烈震荡,将较为平稳、协调.但欧美关系中的一些制约性因素并未消除,"新跨大西洋联盟"建设也难以一帆风顺,在经贸、金融等领域,双方的矛盾和竞争性关系可能会有进一步发展.     

美国强化亚太同盟体系对中国安全的影响

美国对亚太同盟体系的强化,构成当前及未来一个时期地区格局和大国关系发展变化的重要影响因素.历史上,美国及其盟友在政治、军事领域的紧密合作曾是其获得冷战胜利的重要原因之一.在冷战后尤其在反恐战争中,美国的战略自负曾引起比较广泛的反感,甚至使一些盟友与其拉开了距离,在一定程度上动摇了美国霸权的基础.经过十余年反恐战争后,美国欲将战略重点转向亚太,实施所谓亚太"再平衡"战略,强化同盟关系成为其中一个重要举措.美国有战略家明确意识到,要防止在亚太地区出现可能向美国霸权地位提出挑战的敌对联盟,就必须加强与盟友和伙伴的紧密合作,推进建立基于规则的国际秩序,构建一个跨太平洋的安全体系.     

从慕尼黑会议看"9.11"事件后欧美关系的发展趋势

慕尼黑会议说明欧洲安全格局已发生根本变化、欧盟独立意识大大增强.欧美在贫铀弹问题、导弹防御计划、欧洲安全防务等一系列重大国际问题上的分歧和矛盾加剧.但从长远观点看,协调与合作仍将是欧美关系发展的主导趋势.     

美欧经济制裁协作的特点、限度及其走向（英文）

The closer US-EU cooperation in economic sanctions is closely related to the reform process of international sanctions and the pace of European integration, and is also directly affected by the two sides' interactions on the issue of sanctions. However, the cooperation is inevitably constrained due to transatlantic differences in perceptions, interests and institutional capabilities.     

The Future of European Security

The transformation of transatlantic security relations after 9/11 remains the subject of extensive scrutiny. Academics and practitioners alike continue to seek an explanation for the stark divergences in national security policies that transpired in the period between 2001 and 2003. This paper argues that the existence of national strategic cultures in shaping states security policies and perspectives towards the use of force in particular is crucial to any comprehensive understanding of recent developments in transatlantic security. Furthermore, only when the perspectives of states from Central and Eastern Europe are brought more centrally into analysis can a clearer prognosis of the longer term consequences for both transatlantic security and Europe’s own ambitions to become a secruity actor be reached.     

跨大西洋关系:走向松散联盟?（英文）

The current transatlantic relationship between the United States and Europe exhibits a two-sided characteristic.Despite endogenous conflicts,the structural factors that maintain the resilience of US-Europe relations remain solid.The dual features will shape the direction of transatlantic relations for quite a long time,with the alliance sustained but becoming increasingly loose.     

Transatlantic Relations Four Years Later: The Elusive Quest for a Strategic Vision

The transatlantic tensions of the Bush years are behind us but the future of transatlantic relations remains uncertain at the closing of the Obama term. Policy alignment has been found on a host of issues but ‘existential’ questions have resurfaced, casting shadows on Western unity and relevance in the coming years. So far the crisis has failed to focus attention on the need for a common vision for the 21st century. Key strategic issues, from the future of the European order to transatlantic engagement in the Middle East, should figure prominently on the next transatlantic agenda, shifting the debate from the notion of a ‘Pacific century’ to how the West can address ongoing power transitions.     

英国脱欧对欧美关系的影响

英国脱欧不仅是英国国内的重大政治事件和欧洲一体化发展的重要节点,也对欧美关系产生了重要影响。英国脱欧前在欧美关系中占据特殊地位,既是欧美沟通的重要桥梁,又能塑造欧盟发展方向以契合美国利益。英国脱欧深刻改变了欧盟,推动其内部力量变化和政策调整,也将改变欧美之间的互动方式,对欧美关系发展构成新的挑战。百年变局下欧美关系正经历深刻调整,而英国脱欧也成为这一过程中的重要内部变量。     

The International Politics of the Chinese Arms Embargo Issue

The Chinese arms embargo issue has gone beyond Sino-European bilateral relations to become a matter of significance – and concern – for East Asian and US policymakers. Thus, an eventual solution depends not only on the interplay between EU and Chinese policymakers’ interests and considerations, but is now interconnected with China's domestic developments and regional posture, the security concerns of China's neighbours (especially Japan and Taiwan), the evolution of US-China relations and transatlantic relations.     

New alliances,governance of the international system and Italy's Foreign policy choices

The EU and the US, mainly through NATO, have been successful in securing peace and prosperity in Europe during the Cold War and in promoting peace beyond Europe after 1990. With the emergence of new powers and the rise of multipolarity, however, it is no longer apparent that transatlantic relations are indispensable and ways must be found to make sure that the relationship remains relevant. The EU and the US currently relate poorly to each other and as a result do not obtain the best possible outcome from their combined resources. Two elements are key to improving transatlantic relations: an inclusive policy towards Turkey (in the strategic interests of both the EU and the US); and more permanent and workable structures suited to the realities of the 21st century.     

The transatlantic dialogue on Iran: the European subaltern and hegemonic constraints in the implementation of the 2015 nuclear agreement with Iran

This article analyses the US–EU transatlantic dialogue on the Iranian nuclear dossier with a particular view to the implications for EU foreign policy on Iran. Doing so, it uses neo-Gramscian scholarship to put the EU’s “over-compliance” with Iran sanctions into perspective. Constrained by the imperatives of hegemonic coercion in the form of US financial Iran sanctions against third country entities and with the hegemonic consent of a Western US-led “historic bloc”, Europe was relegated to a subaltern below its mediatory potential. It will be shown how this finding complicates the EU’s ambition to renew relations with Iran. Drawing on semi-structured interviews with experts and delegation members from the P5+1, this article thus analyses “the normative element” in the transatlantic security dialogue on Iran at a time where the latter is undergoing a sea change in the wake of the implementation of the “Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action” of July 2015.