印度新军事战略的经济意图

印度是一个科技实力较雄厚、经济发展较迅速的发展中国家 ,也是南亚和印度洋地区首屈一指的军事大国。 90年代以来 ,印度的军事战略发生了改变 ,与此同时 ,印度经济开始加快发展步伐。本文将通过研究印度的新军事战略类型 ,来分析印度实行这种新军事战略下的经济意图。     

Explaining Civil-Military Relations in Complex Political Environments: India and Pakistan in Comparative Perspective

This article argues that military intervention into politics can only be understood by studying both the nature of threats and of domestic political arrangements. I offer a theory of the military in politics built around the interaction between threat configuration, political institutionalization, and civilian government legitimacy. The argument is tested with paired-comparison case studies of Indian and Pakistani civil-military relations since independence. Despite their similarities at the time of partition, these two militaries took completely different political trajectories. The cases reveal how structures of domestic politics interact with military threat perceptions to explain civilians' ability to maintain varying levels of control over the military.     

India’s fitful quest for seapower

Building on several years of research, and many interviews of Indian naval officers and government officials, both serving and retired, this article aims to provide a deeper understanding of the context and ramifications of India's naval rise. In particular, it seeks to explain a troubling paradox: the relative neglect of the navy vis-à-vis the other services, and the seeming misalignment of New Delhi's military strategy with its maritime geography. Indeed, the country's enviable position at the heart of the Indian Ocean, along with its peninsular formation, large exclusive economic zone, and extensive coastlines, would seem to suggest a natural predisposition towards the exercise of naval power. In reality, however, India's navy since independence has consistently been the most poorly funded of its military services, and has frequently struggled to make do with limited resources. The core question this article endeavors to address is whether this trend will persist, or whether various factors will combine in order to provoke a gradual rebalancing of the nation's military strategy and force structure.     

The Political Cost-Effectiveness of Private Vessel Protection: The Italian Case

Italy has traditionally been wary of private providers of security. Still, private military and security companies (PMSCs) have recently started to play an important role in protecting Italian merchant vessels, eventually replacing the military vessel protection detachment units (VPDs) provided by the Italian Navy. Drawing on neoclassical realism, the increasing involvement of PMSCs in protecting Italian merchant ships is presented as an attempt to reduce the political costs associated with the use of military personnel abroad, epitomised by the arrest of two Italian Navy fusiliers by Indian authorities in February 2012.     

A Rising India's Search for a Foreign Policy

As India seeks to become a major player on the international political stage, it will face two major internal constraints. First, India will have to recognize the need to exploit the extant structure of international system to its advantage more effectively. Structural constraints are the most formidable ones a state encounters in its drive towards the status of a major power. Yet, Indian foreign policy continues to be reactive to the strategic environment rather than attempting to shape the strategic realities. While such an ad hoc response to the structural imperatives carried little costs when India was on the periphery of global politics, it holds grave risks now that India seems poised to play a significant role in global politics. Second, India must come to grips with its discomfort with the very notion of power and in particular its wariness of the use of “hard power.” Throughout history, all major powers have been required to employ the military instrument skillfully. India's reluctance to accept a more sophisticated understanding of power, in general, and military power, in particular, will continue to undermine Indian foreign and security policy.     

缅俄关系的发展演变及其影响因素分析

缅俄关系的发展是基于现实利益的相互需求,缅甸需要俄罗斯在安理会的支持,利用俄罗斯来实现其大国平衡政策和多边主义外交以及巩固新军人政权。而俄罗斯的南亚、东南亚和印度洋战略,乃至其实施能源战略都需要发展对缅关系。     

The military as a resource for peace-building: time for reconsideration?

The use of the military for development purposes in the 1960s fell out of fashion following its involvement in human rights abuses in many countries. This article examines whether it is now appropriate to welcome back the military as an agent of peacebuilding. Two arguments in favour—the economic and the Gandhian—are considered and then compared with some arguments against. While there is an obvious role for the military in peacekeeping, the article concludes that the military's emphasis on the use of force renders it unsuitable, by comparison with civilian bodies, for the tasks of peacebuilding.     

论高科技对印度经济发展的影响

独立后,为了把印度建设成为现代化工业强国和有声有色的世界大国,印度政府重视科技特别是高科技发展,从而使印度在各高科技领域获得举世瞩目的进展。高科技已经对印度经济增长、印度产业结构、印度地区经济和印度对外经济等产生了十分重要的影响,并且仍将对未来印度经济发展产生深远的影响。     

试论1954年中印总理、中缅总理的互访

朝鲜战争结束后,美国极力拉拢中国周边的亚洲国家组建针对中国的包围圈,为了应对这一情况,中国提出了建立“国际和平统一战线”的外交战略,1954年中印、中缅两国总理互访就是落实“国际和平统一战线”政策的重大举措。在互访过程中,中印、中缅共同提出了和平共处五项原则,中国领导人着力消除了印度、缅甸在华人华侨、边界问题、亚洲国家共产党以及中美关系等问题上的疑虑和担心,从而促进了中印、中缅两国关系,巩固了亚洲国家的中立倾向,为亚非会议的召开奠定了良好的基础。     

关于中国在缅军事基地的谣传

近15年来,涉及中国在缅军事基地的报道和论著源源不断。虽未获得证实,但中国对北印度洋的渗透的传闻已深刻影响缅甸邻国,尤其是印度的战略思维。安达曼海大椰子树岛的大型情报站和伊洛瓦底江三角洲海基岛海军基地的报告,已被作为缅甸沦为中国附属国的佐证。在其他观察家看来,这些基地的存在,明确显示就是中国在印度洋进行扩张的计划,甚至是它的全球野心。然而,印度政要于2005年承认,关于中国在大椰子树岛设置情报站的报告有假,并承认缅甸并无中国海军基地。因此彻底改变印度国防计划人员10多年来关注的两大焦点,导致人们怀疑有关缅甸存在其他"中国基地"的说法,进而引起对中缅关系现状及中国在北印度洋的战略利益的思考。     

The Bundeswehr and the Kunduz air strike 4 September 2009: Germany's post-heroic moment?

The article sets out to investigate Germany's involvement in the controversial 2009 Kunduz air strike in Afghanistan. Utilizing a theoretical framework derived from existing literature on postheroic warfare, it employs a detailed case study of this particular military engagement to highlight the operational, strategic, and cultural dimensions of Germany's operations in Afghanistan. Through an analysis of primary documents and field interviews, this paper concludes that German public opinion, politicians, soldiers and media reacted in ways that mirror closely theories of postheroic warfare. These included widespread condemnation of the air strike, increasing doubts about the Afghan mission, and emphasis on low-risk stand-off precision weapons, which paradoxically resulted in higher civilian casualties. Germans still have a long way to go to accept the brutal realities of military engagements that the Bundeswehr increasingly confronts during its expanded scope of post-cold war military operations.     

The Trouble with Targeted Killing

Students of comparative military organizations have advanced three hypotheses to explain when armed forces adopt more liberal manpower policies: when a major security threat looms, when the military professionalizes, or when the surrounding society grows more tolerant of difference. This article argues that all three are theoretically and empirically problematic: they potentially have much to contribute, but only in conjunction with a perspective that is more appreciative of the centrality of political processes. Enduring reform of the military's participation policies is more productively viewed through the lens of the struggle over national and communal identity. To illustrate the power of this alternative approach, this article reconsiders cases commonly cited in support of the existing hypotheses: the racial desegregation of the U.S. military, the integration of the Druze into the Israel Defense Forces, and the imperial and independent Indian armies' policies with respect to what the British termed “class.”     

Coercion and Control: Explaining India's Victory at Kargil

This article argues that most analyses of the Kargil conflict concede the important role played by the United States in understanding how India regained control of the Kargil heights, but fail to explain how India's intra-war compellent threat forced Washington to bring irresistible pressure to bear on Islamabad. The Indian decision to threaten asymmetrical escalation was the result of domestic pressures and military difficulties facing the Vajpayee-led caretaker government. The article shows that Washington pursued an “impartially” interventionist strategy until it came under Indian pressure to forsake its “balanced” approach towards ending the conflict. The article also shows how the “asymmetry of motivation” between New Delhi and Washington was an important factor in terminating hostilities in India's favor.     

关于索马里危机的地缘经济与政治思考——兼论罗佐夫分析索马里危机的独特视角

亚丁湾海盗问题似乎已经渐渐淡出人们的视野,然而索马里问题依然十分值得人们关注。里克·罗佐夫从地缘经济和地缘政治的角度探讨了索马里危机的性质,认为美国和北约为其军事目的和确保其全球能源主导地位而采取控制整个印度洋的计划与行动,才是索马里的真正危机。尽管罗佐夫对索马里危机的一些分析还不够到位,但他对国际社会的提醒却并不是多余的。解决索马里问题必须从根子上着手。中国必须正视国际霸权存在的现实,在努力提高自身软实力的同时也要十分重视硬实力的继续提升。     

印太战略视域下的印法印度洋地区海洋安全合作探析

印度洋地区的海上战略通道价值为世界所公认。世界上一些主要国家提出了相应的印太战略,印度洋地区的海上战略通道价值更为显著。在法国与印度的印太战略框架中,双方都把印度洋地区的海洋安全视为重点。基于印太战略,印度洋地区海上战略通道的安全成为法国与印度共同的战略关注。由于印度洋地区的海洋安全威胁日益复杂,合作是法国与印度维护海上战略通道安全的最好方式,符合双方共同的利益。面对印度洋地区复杂的海洋安全威胁,法国与印度意识到了海洋安全合作的必要性与可行性,并初步建立了海洋安全合作机制。     

Whither Non-Alignment? Indian Ocean Zone of Peace and New Delhi’s Selective Alignment with Great Powers during the Cold War, 1964–1979

First proposed in 1964 by the Sri Lankan prime minister, the Indian Ocean Zone of Peace [IOZP] entailed eradication of foreign military bases from the Indian Ocean region as well its denuclearisation. During the Cold War, India was one of the most vehement supporters of IOZP. If some saw India’s interests in the IOZP as another manifestation of Nehruvian idealism, others viewed it as a part of its non-aligned foreign policy. This analysis argues otherwise. India’s record on IOZP reveals a policy of selective alignment with Great Powers and its adaptation to the principles of power politics in international relations. India’s support for the presence of one or the other Great Powers in the Indian Ocean region found premise on balancing those it considered hostile to its national security interests. In public, India supported the call for IOZP as dictated by its non-aligned foreign policy; privately, New Delhi remained highly sceptical and often worked to IZOP’s detriment. Under the cloak of IOZP, India not only pursued diplomatic alignment with Great Powers but also ensured that its own regional ambitions remain unchecked. In this picture, India’s role was not only supportive of the Cold War but to the extent it could use the opportunities provided by superpower rivalry in the region to further its own ends, even determinative of the process.     

The rule of law ‐ meaning and significance for security policy and reform

Given Russia's history of legal expediency and the emphasis of Western policy on economic liberalization, it is not surprising that Russian reforms have yet to produce a functioning market economy and effective political institutions, including civil‐military control. A Western‐style economic and military model is fundamentally built on the rule of law as a supreme and impartial tool of conflict resolution and distribution of rights and power. Without it, government action cannot be predicted, destroying trust in the institutions and denying private and public activity a basis for long‐term planning which is based on trust and predictability. Without long‐term planning neither companies nor armies can be successful, giving rise to a pseudo‐legal state of de facto laws. For its economic, political and military reforms to be successful Russia needs to emphasize the building of the institutions for developing and predictably enforcing a set of laws, an effort that needs to receive priority support from Western partners.     

Responsibility to Protect: Emerging Rules on Humanitarian Intervention?

This article discusses different forms of military force under or linked to the principle of the responsibility to protect (R2P) in relation to international law, with particular emphasis on humanitarian intervention. It contributes to the ongoing debate by analysing and separating the lawful forms of military force falling under Pillars II and III of the R2P from unlawful claims and extensive interpretations of R2P. Apart from the already existing legal right of the Security Council to authorise humanitarian interventions, it is argued that there are no ongoing legal customary developments of similar rights or obligations for other actors to intervene in another state (without consent) to protect populations by military force against grave crimes under the principle of R2P. The argumentation is based on a series of case studies of humanitarian interventions by the Security Council, regional organisations and “coalitions of willing states”. The article also includes legal analysis on the Uniting for Peace Procedure and the prior treaty-based consented rights to intervention under the African Union Act and the 1999 ECOWAS Protocol on the Mechanism for Conflict Prevention.     

Commercial Diplomacy and Statecraft in the Context of Economic Reform: The Indian Experience

It is almost a decade since India began its economic reforms. Apart from the purely domestic economic objectives that the reforms were expected to achieve, there was a recognition that reform was imperative if India wanted to become an economic power of consequence within and beyond its region. This had important foreign policy implications. Official pronouncements reflected the concern that the balance of fiscal power as opposed to military power was the key factor in determining a country's international standing. This called for an integrated strategy to bring economic and foreign policies closer. The implementation of a vigorous foreign economic policy could not be undertaken without sharpening the commercial diplomatic tool. Indian foreign policy over the last decade has been grappling with this challenge. This article analyses the reorientation in Indian foreign policy, assesses the efforts undertaken so far to make commercial diplomacy viable and highlights the challenges that multi-layered diplomacy poses for a country like India.