Land without shade

In the wake of the BJP's crushing defeat of Congress in the national elections held in May 2014 the author assesses India's prospects and potential in the light of the oft-made comparison with China. India is famously diverse, the largest democracy in the world, with a relatively young population. India is secular, in the sense that state and religion are not linked, but at the same time India is a deeply spiritual society, diversely religious. In all these areas China's experience is wholly different, but not necessarily better, though in purely economic terms China is far ahead of India and Indian underperformance. Nonetheless, India is likely to be just as central to global issues like climate change, the digital revolution, public health and migration. In addition, managing all aspects of the relationship with Pakistan will be one of the key issues for 21^st century security. In all this, while poverty, caste and appalling governance will hold India back, diversity, tolerance and an entrepreneurial culture should help her forward.     

BUDDING INDO-MYANMAR RELATIONS: RISING BUT LIMITED CHALLENGES FOR CHINA

There is a big gap on the study of Indo-Myanmar relations between India and China, in which the Indian experts are mainly concerned about the serious consequences of the China factor, while few Chinese scholars focus on Indo-Myanmar relations. This article, therefore, looks into the post-Cold War Indo-Myanmar relations from a Chinese perspective, so as to fill the research gap. It argues that India's influence upon Sino-Myanmar relations is actually marginal, though it has established a budding relationship with Myanmar through deepening political engagement, naval cooperation and physical connectivity with the country. The main reason is that India lacks full capability to develop the bilateral relations with Myanmar and thus compete fully with China. Additionally, the suspicion and resistance from the Burmese elite and local communities constitutes another major obstacle to the further engagement between India and Myanmar. Naypyidaw, notwithstanding its efforts to advance Indo-Myanmar relations, would prefer to gain benefits from both China and India.     

Africa–India nuclear cooperation: Pragmatism,principle, post-colonialism and the Pelindaba Treaty

The United States–India nuclear agreement, announced in 2005, was a first step in the process to normalise India's international nuclear relations despite the fact that India is not a party to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons. Africa is largely seen as a uranium supplier rather than nuclear power producer in the world nuclear order. The position that African states take towards Africa–India nuclear cooperation, uranium supply to India in particular, is informed by two seemingly contrasting factors, namely economic and political pragmatism on the one hand, and non-proliferation imperatives and norms on the other. The African Nuclear Weapons Free Zone Treaty, also referred to as the Pelindaba Treaty, prohibits uranium and nuclear-related exports to states without comprehensive safeguards of their nuclear facilities, but the case of India is still open for interpretation. Africa and India's shared post-colonial consciousness, manifesting in their historical ties, membership of the Non-Aligned Movement and South–South cooperation, is often regarded as another factor facilitating Africa–India nuclear relations. A more critical view points to the different notions of post-coloniality in Africa and India, resulting in different approaches to nuclear non-proliferation that constrain their nuclear relations.     

Japan's Foreign Policy beyond Short-term Politics

In August 2009, the Liberal-Democratic Party (LDP), which had been in power since 1955, lost the general elections to a recently-formed party, the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ). The LDP's foreign policy had placed emphasis on relations with the US, and on international cooperation and relations with Asia. The LDP's foreign and defense policy lacked a long term vision; it was incremental, pragmatic and could be described as reactive or passive. An examination of the DPJ's foreign policy, three years after its coming to power, reveals that it has accepted part of the LDP's inheritance. The Japan-US Alliance was reasserted as pivotal to Japan's security. Cooperation with Asia has not given birth to a new regional structure or to new institutional mechanisms, and dialogue with China has not improved; incrementalism is still preferred in the field of defense. Nonetheless, the fact that Japan's opposition is now a catch-all party at the center of the political scene changes the framework of foreign and defense policy-making considerably. Therefore, the likelihood of interpartite cooperation over foreign and security policy is theoretically conceivable. Nonetheless, political and institutional constraints to change in the field remain.     

The campaign against the Anglo‐Iranian agreement of 1919

The Anglo‐Iranian agreement of 1919 was a major turning point both in the modern history of Iran and in her relations with Britain. It was the brainchild of Lord Curzon and the Foreign Office in which the other British government departments eventually acquiesced with reluctance, although the government of India retained its opposition to it. It failed because of the fears it created for the loss of Iran's independence, mainly as a result of the secrecy with which it had been negotiated, and the rigidity with which it was upheld. A vigorous campaign was conducted against it by Iranians as well as the United States, France and Russia. Yet it might not have failed had India, the India office, the Treasury and the War Office provided the requisite instruments for its success. Its failure resulted in the 1921 coup, the rise of Reza Khan and the Pahlavi state, and a new chapter in Anglo‐Iranian relations.     

India's “Look East” Policy

A combination of economic, strategic, and domestic considerations has led India to pay greater attention to its eastern neighbours since the 1990s. India's steadily growing ties with East and Southeast Asian countries have become an increasingly important element of India's foreign policy. India is working with these countries bilaterally as well as through regional frameworks like the EAS, ASEM, and ASEAN, and sub-regional organizations like BIMSTEC and Mekong-Ganga Cooperation. The main driver remains economic, and India has many ongoing and planned FTAs with the countries of this region. Of late, defence and security ties too have grown. However, India's relations with China remain tense and troubled, with persisting differences over the border, Tibet, and China's patronage of India's South Asian neighbours, particularly Pakistan. Asia's major players will have to overcome internal rivalries and consciously evolve a cooperative paradigm for Asian security and cooperation to enable Asia to play a leading global role.     

The Kerala model of development a debate (Part 2)

Abstract

Every year hundreds are killed and millions made homeless by floods in the Ganges and Brahmaputra Basins. Every year millions go hungry because of the low productivity of agriculture in the region and the unequal distribution of its benefits. Some thirty percent of the world's poorest 800 million people live in the Basins of the Ganges and Brahmaputra. Their future prosperity depends both on changed agrarian relations and on the development of the resources of the two rivers. While coordinated development of the rivers could increase agricultural productivity and provide enormous quantities of hydroelectricity for the three main countries of the region—India, Nepal and Bangladesh—for the last thirty years such development has been precluded by intergovernmental dispute over the sharing of the Ganges. The conduct of the dispute is frequently determined by the immediate political needs of the factions in power in India and Bangladesh. As long as that remains the case, proposals for the regulation and development of the Ganges and Brahmaputra are likely to stagnate.     

拜登政府的美日印澳四方安全合作构想述评

2017年美日印澳四方安全对话重启以来,马拉巴尔2020军演是美日印澳四国首次举行的联合军演。马拉巴尔2020军演折射出美日印澳四国针对中国的意愿及合作新进展。美日印澳四方安全合作是美国印太战略的基础和牵制中国崛起的重要机制,在近几年持续获得进展。美日印澳四国在安全领域加强合作,对四国与中国双边关系产生深远影响。马拉巴尔2020军演后,原本紧张的中印及中澳关系继续恶化。美国进一步推动与中国的竞争。美日印澳四国不但在安全领域针对中国,还营造不利于中国的国际舆论。拜登上台后,美日印澳四方安全合作继续强化。拜登比特朗普更重视与盟友合作,借由与日印澳三国磋商推动美日印澳四方安全合作机制化和常态化并走向准军事联盟。美日印澳四国明确表示不会在政治与安全领域停止针对中国,但是在经贸领域基于自身利益考量将改善对华关系。美日印澳四方安全合作升级对中国安全环境及国家利益构成严重威胁。拜登政府正在强化针对中国的印太地区多边安全架构。美国试图在外交层面让中国陷入孤立态势,在安全层面对中国形成战略包围。拜登政府的美日印澳四方安全合作构想将让中国面临更加复杂的外交局面,更加险恶的安全态势。     

US–India Nuclear Cooperation Accord: Implications for the Non-proliferation Regime

Members of the IAEA Board and of the Nuclear Suppliers Group may need to decide this year whether to go along with the US proposal to allow nuclear cooperation with India despite its non-NPT status. Permitting nuclear sales to India would have important geo-strategic benefits by strengthening its partnership with the US. Yet granting India an exception to nuclear supply guidelines would also have significant non-proliferation disadvantages by weakening the NPT. Whether it would assist India's nuclear weapons development is unclear. If India were to agree voluntarily to cap its production of fissile material, this would rectify the greatest lost opportunity of the US-India nuclear agreement. The non-proliferation benefits that the Bush Administration has claimed for the accord, such as that it brings India into consensus on the Iran nuclear issue, are neither guaranteed nor long-lasting. Perhaps the best that can be said is that the transparency the accord will bring to some aspects of the Indian nuclear program could contribute to arms control measures in the future.     

The Iraq treaty, 1930

India's relations with the Gulf countries started to flourish in the 1990s after India succeeded in de-hyphenating Pakistan from its policy toward the Gulf. Though Pakistan remained a factor as it continued to raise Kashmir and internal situation in India at multilateral forums such as OIC to evoke anti-India sentiments, it did not remain an underlying factor in as was the case during the Cold War era. In the contemporary dynamics, when India-Gulf relations are progressing toward strategic partnerships, Pakistan has re-emerged as a factor but its nature has changed. As highlighted in the joint statements issued during the Prime Minister Narendra Modi's visits to the Gulf countries since May 2014, India can now put pressure on Pakistan by highlighting its policy of sponsoring terrorism. This was evident when the Arab Gulf countries condemned the Pathankot (January 2016) and Uri (September 2016) terrorist attacks. India's relations with the Arab Gulf and other Middle Eastern countries are independent of their engagements with Pakistan and India-Pakistan tension, but New Delhi has stepped up efforts to raise the issue of cross-border terrorism and use of religion to incite terror activities against India during its engagements with these countries. It underlines the growing convergence between India and Arab Gulf countries over regional issues and the ability of India to isolate Pakistan over issues related to terrorism.     

冷战后中印在缅甸的合作竞争关系

根据国际关系的合作竞争概念,冷战后中印在缅甸的合作竞争关系可以分为两个阶段。在这两个阶段中,合作逐渐增多,虽然竞争仍大于合作,但竞争的主导地位有所减弱。受中印关系的影响,未来中印在缅甸的合作竞争关系还存在很大的不确定性,中国需要尽一切可能使之获得良性的发展。     

John Stuart Mill on the Antipodes: Settler Violence against Indigenous Peoples and the Legitimacy of Colonial Rule

J.S. Mill's support for colonialism and empire has attracted recent critical attention in the context of debates about his status as a modern egalitarian liberal, and liberalism's historical justification for empire. While Mill defended imperialism for most of his life on the grounds that it brought progress and civilization to historically backward peoples, his later correspondence reveals that he became increasingly concerned that settler violence against subordinated populations, notably in New Zealand, India and the West Indies, undermined the civilizing mission. Mill had been a strong advocate for settler societies in Australia and New Zealand, but came to fear that colonial abuses of power over indigenous peoples would vitiate the utilitarian benefits of colonial self‐rule.     

“孟不印尼”合作倡议及其发展趋势

"孟不印尼"(BBIN)合作倡议是由印度发起的一个南亚东北部次区域合作倡议。目的是绕开长期被印巴矛盾拖累的南盟,通过在印度东部、孟加拉国、尼泊尔和不丹之间建立一个涉及公路、铁路、内河运输、航空和电力网络的次区域联通体系,推动南亚东部次区域一体化进程。目前,"孟不印尼"倡议的里程碑"机动车协议"已经达成但尚未完全生效。铁路联通协议开始讨论并已有前期收获,其他领域尚未进入正式谈判阶段。"孟不印尼"合作倡议体现了相关国家和地区对互联互通的渴望与要求,符合该地区的长远利益。印度试图借此解决其东北部的交通瓶颈问题,巩固其南亚交通枢纽的地位,并试图在更大地理范围内扩大印度的地缘优势。但是,这一倡议受到印度国家能力的限制以及与其他成员国之间复杂关系的影响。一方面,印度东部地区经济发展水平低下,不足以成为吸引周边国家的经济发动机。另一方面,BBIN国家经济发展水平相近,经济结构高度相似,经济互补性有限。成员国从BBIN倡议中获得的潜在收益,可能会不如预期,将挫伤相关国家的积极性。再加上资金保障不力、管理机制对接困难,BBIN的推进将会比较困难。     

Keeping face in the public sphere: recognition,discretion and Uzbekistan's relations with the United States and Germany, 1991–2006

The manner in which President Karimov's roles were recognized in the global arena affected how Uzbekistan's international relations developed – a perspective that highlights both the form and the content of bilateral relationships. While mutual interests are crucial to beginning a relationship, it is also important to understand how those relations were recognized in public and dealt with in private. If partners managed to recognize Karimov's agenda publicly, or at least act with discretion, this tended to create an atmosphere favouring cooperation. As such, recognition and discretion reveal much about Karimov's concerns with international equality and self-reliance, pointing to the reasons why Uzbekistan's relations fluctuated more with some actors than others. The United States and Germany are ideal examples of that ambivalent situation: Washington often cooperated with Uzbekistan on security matters, but then saw its military personnel excluded from Qarshi-Qanabad after the 2005 Andijan crisis; whereas Berlin witnessed little change in its relationship with Uzbekistan and continued to lease a base in Termez after 2005. This difference in outcomes can be explained in part by a dynamic of recognition and discretion.     

An assessment of Botswana's electoral management body to deliver fair elections

Botswana has regularly held general elections since 1965 and in October 2014 held her 11th general election. All these elections have so far been won by the ruling party. The regularity of elections in Botswana has persuaded some observers to present Botswana as an exemplar of democracy and good governance in Africa. This perception is reinforced by the formal existence of an electoral management body, the Independent Electoral Commission (IEC), whose mandate is to ensure that elections are conducted efficiently, properly, freely and fairly. Although the Constitution enjoins the IEC to ensure that elections are conducted fairly, this article reveals that, in effect, the IEC has neither the authority nor the power to level the electoral playing field, and ensure that elections are also fair, in addition to being conducted efficiently, properly and freely. This inability by Botswana's electoral management body to ensure that elections are conducted fairly emanates from the narrow legal and political framework within which the IEC operates, and exposes the weaknesses of Botswana's much vaunted democracy.     

冷战后印度与东盟关系:调整、发展与趋势

20世纪90年代,适应大国崛起战略的需要,印度的"东向政策"出台。印度的"东向政策"推动了冷战后印度与东盟关系的调整与发展。冷战后的印度与东盟关系的发展呈现"双轮驱动"的态势,一方面印度发展与东盟国家的双边关系,另一方面,依托东盟相关机制,印度发展同东盟的多边关系。未来10-15年,印度与东盟关系的发展将是经贸与安全"齐头并进"的趋势。     

China's 'Omnidirectional Diplomacy': Cooperation with all,Emphasis on Major Powers

In the first half of 2001, China's relationship with the two economic power houses, the US and Japan, was anything but smooth. Tomoyuki Kojima, professor of political science and dean of policy management at Keio University describes the principle of China's foreign policy as ''omnidirectional'' diplomacy. The strained relations with the US and Japan, however, were contradictory to this principle which emphasizes international cooperation with a focus on world powers. In the following article, he examines the main reasons for China's problems with both countries. At the time of writing, Shanghai is to host the 2001 Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum in October, China is poised to enter the World Trade Organization and Beijing had also won the bid to host the 2008 Olympics. As China becomes more and more internationalized, Kojima argues that the emphasis on cooperation will be perceived as having been of vital importance.     

Electoral Systems in a Divided Society: The Case of Afghanistan

Electoral systems can be powerful instruments for shaping the content and practice of politics in divided societies, such as Afghanistan; and their design needs to be closely linked to context. This paper explores the suitability of Afghanistan's electoral mechanisms in light of the nation's political system, social divisions, and the process, which led to their adoption. There is no perfect electoral system; and the winners of the country's first-ever presidential election and the subsequent assembly elections face the formidable challenge of transforming Afghanistan from a war torn fiefdom into a nation. Hamid Karzai's victory and Afghanistan's improved, although fragile, security environment appear to represent an important step toward democracy. Yet, elections and electoral mechanisms are a necessary but insufficient means to the introduction and endurance of constitutional democratic government. The legitimacy of Afghanistan's new democratic institutions will rest on the government's progress in producing results, such as disarming the private militias of powerful commanders, some of whom represent sizeable ethnic minorities, and curbing the burgeoning poppy cultivation. An electoral system is but one piece, significant but not the linchpin, of the schema of Afghan political dynamics.     

论印度在东南亚的软实力

印度软实力源自印度悠久的历史和灿烂的文化。印度在东南亚的软实力主要表现为印度对东南亚国家的双边和多边外交、印度对东南亚国家开展的广泛的经济社会文化合作,以及形式多样、丰富多彩的印度文化产品等。与其他西方国家相比,印度在东南亚展示其软实力的手段与方式更加多元化,也更加容易为东南亚国家所接受。