Self-destructing prophecies: Long-term forecasting of municipal correctional bed need

Although municipal jails consume a significant amount of resources and the number of inmates housed in such facilities exploded in the 1990s, the literature on forecasting jail populations is sparse. Jail administrators have available discussions on jail crowding and its causes, but do not have ready access to applications of forecasting techniques or practical demonstrations of a jail inmate population forecast. This article argues that the underlying reason for this deficiency is the inherent unpredictability of local long-term correctional population levels. The driving forces behind correctional bed need render local jail population forecasts empirically valid only for a brief time frame. These inherent difficulties include the volatile nature of jail populations and their greater sensitivity when compared with prison populations to local conditions; the gap between the data needed for local correctional population forecasting and what is realistically available to forecasters; the lack of reliable lead variables for long-term local correctional population forecasts; the clash of the mathematics of forecasting and the substantive issues involved in the interpretation of forecast models; and the significant political and policy impacts of forecasts on local criminal justice systems and subsequent correctional population trends.The differences between the accuracy of short-term versus long-term jail bed need forecasts means that forecasting local correctional bed need is empirically valid for, at best, one to two years. As the temporal cast is extended, longer-term forecasts quickly become error prone. Except for unique situations where jails exist in highly stable local political, social, and criminal justice environments, long-term forecasts of two years or greater are fatally flawed and have little empirical accuracy. Long-term forecasts of local jail bed needs are useful, though, as policy catalysts to encourage policymakers to consider possible long-term impacts of current decisions, but forecasts should be thought of and presented as one possible future scenario rather than a likely reality. Utilizing a demonstration of a local jail forecast based upon two common empirical forecasting approaches, ARIMA and autoregression, this article presents a case study of the inherent difficulties in the long-term forecasting of local jail bed need.     

Jails in the United States: the phenomenon of mental illness in local correctional facilities

During the last decade, the number of mentally ill inmates in local jails has increased while courts have imposed standards of inmate care upon jail administrators which require appropriate treatment of that inmate group. While jail administrators are seeking assistance from mental health agencies as well as additional resources to deal with these problems, little specific information is presently available about the numbers and correlates of jail inmates nationally that are mentally ill; their prior contacts with mental health agencies, criminal histories, employment backgrounds, etc; and the services jails presently offer to that population. In addition, little is known by geographic region or by jail capacity. Such information is essential in developing future strategies to manage that population. This paper is a preliminary contribution to the development of that information. In addition, the data analysis can serve as a base line against which to evaluate in the structure of the mentally ill jail inmate population as well as changes in services provided by jails by comparing this analysis to future jail surveys conducted by the Bureau of Jail Statistics (BJS) or the National Institute of Justice. The research will be a secondary analysis of the Survey of Inmates of Local Jails, 1983, conducted by BJS, (made available through the Inter-University Consortium for Political and Social Research: University of Michigan, First Edition, Fall, 1985, #8274). In general an exploratory approach was used; however, a loglinear model has been asked to further refine and explore the phenomena of the mentally ill in jails.     

Mayberry revisited: The characteristics and operations of America's small jails

Much attention has been focused on the problems of America's prisons and jails. Jail research and often jail litigation have centered on large county or municipal jails; often these resemble correctional systems and are so called. Yet many of the nation's 3041 counties are small, rural, and sparsely populated. In a 1982 survey conducted by the National Sheriffs' Association, 640 jails had bed space for 16 or fewer inmates. Many of these jails suffer from the same kinds of deficiencies as large jails, although these problems are not exacerbated by size. Most jails suffer from lack of adequate funding, but for small jails this is a particularly acute problem which affects all facets of operations.

Data from the 1983 National Jail Census and the 1982 National Sheriffs' Association survey are used to develop a profile of the overlooked but important small jail, defined for our purposes as a facility capable of housing ten or fewer inmates. This profile indicates that small jails are older, have less cell capacity, and provide fewer health and rehabilitation services than their larger counterparts. The national prevalence of small jails and some of their notable deficiencies suggest that alternatives to these facilities be considered.     

Rural jails: Problematic inmates, overcrowded cells, and cash-strapped counties

In the United States there were some 1,775 jails with one hundred beds or less, but there had been little empirical examination of these facilities, or the challenges that they confront. This survey of 213 jail administrators from these small facilities found that under-funding, overcrowding, and retention and recruitment of officers were the most significant challenges. By contrast, suicide and violence were perceived to be less serious problems. The small jails sampled also held relatively high percentages of special needs inmates, and this places further demands on these agencies. These challenges are very similar to problems identified several decades ago, suggesting that few structural or operational changes had been made in rural justice systems. In many places, rural jails acted as a default mechanism for failures in other social, health, or community systems and they become the place that “just can't say no.”     

White-collar offenders and the jail experience: a comparative analysis

The incarceration experiences of white-collar offenders have received relatively little attention among criminological researchers, and the research that has been conducted has focused on offenders’ experiences in prisons rather than jails. The purpose of this study was to fill this gap by examining approximately 6500 inmates incarcerated in local jails, comparing those classified as white-collar offenders to violent and other non-violent offenders. The differences between offender types based on demographics, psychological adjustment (i.e., mental health issues since arrival to jail), and behavioral adjustment (i.e., institutional misconduct) are examined to see whether white-collar inmates have more difficulty than others adjusting to the jail environment (consistent with the special sensitivity hypothesis). Findings suggest that white-collar jail inmates do not appear to experience symptoms indicative of poor psychological or behavioral adjustment to the jail environment. Implications for policy and future research are discussed.     

From Bail to Jail: The Effect of Jail Capacity on Bail Decisions

One of the more important decisions made by judges in the criminal justice system is the bail decision. Factors that judges take into consideration when making a bail decision, such as seriousness of the offense, flight risk, and public safety, are typically seen by researchers as the primary determinants of such a decision. However, one aspect that researchers have not studied extensively—rated jail capacity – could play an important role in a judge’s decision. Overcrowding in jails leads to numerous problems, both for the offender and the system itself, so judges may be more willing to release offenders into the community during the pretrial period if the local jails are overcrowded. The current study examines the effect of rated jail capacity on decisions regarding bail amounts, release on recognizance (ROR), financial release, and conditional release in eight Florida counties. Results indicate that rated jail capacity plays a role in judges’ bail decisions, suggesting that judges are concerned about housing more pretrial offenders in crowded jails.     

Jail Officers’ Perceptions of the Work Environment in Traditional Versus New Generation Facilities

New Generation jails have emerged as an important innovation in local incarceration. The results of existing research suggest that new generation jail design and operation can positively impact inmates and staff, but the literature is far from unequivocal. The current study utilized data collected from a single jail complex to provide a unique test of how the type of facility influences jail staff perceptions of the work environment along several dimensions. Our results revealed few differences between correctional officers working in traditional units and those posted in new generation units. We discuss the implications of these findings, including the use of direct supervision inmate management in traditional as well as new generation jails.     

CLASSIFICATION TO HALFWAY HOUSES: A QUASI-EXPERIMENTAL EVALUATION *

Faced with prison overcrowding, institutions must seek alternatives to imprisonment. An under researched possibility is the use of halfway houses for the placement of offenders serving prison sentences. The LSI, an objective risk classification instrument, was administered to inmates from three jails. Low-scoring inmates from two of the jails were flagged for placement in correctional halfway houses, and the third jail was blind to LSI scores. The halfway house placement rate was 51 % for the jails that used LSI scores and 16% for the jail using traditional subjective classification procedures. The results suggest that subjective offender assessments run the risk of over classifying offenders whereas objective risk assessments yield more appropriate classifications.     

Turning off jail turnover: do generational differences matter?

Reducing turnover in America’s jails is a significant fiscal concern and a serious organizational challenge. When determining how to improve retention, the private sector has been influenced by the literature on generational relevance. To explore whether similar cohort-driven motivators might be productively directed toward reducing jail turnover, the application of generational relevance theory to jails was empirically tested. To assess the impact of retention-related variables on various age cohorts working in America’s jails, a national survey was administered to jail staff throughout the country. Results indicate that less than half of the variables included in the analysis reached levels of statistical significance when analyzed by generational cohorts, and even among significant variables, over one-third were age-driven by nature. Although the findings do little to advance the cause of generational relevance theory, they are not without merit for jail administrators seeking to reduce turnover, pointing toward the universal appeal such intrinsic factors as treating people fairly, creating a positive work climate, and assuring that employees are listened to, have input, and are recognized, respected, and appreciated. Essentially, results indicate that reducing jail turnover is more likely to be a product of initiatives that are generically requisite than generationally relevant.     

JAILS AND SERVICES FOR INMATES A Perspective on Some Critical Issues

The nature and scope of the jail role within the criminal justice system is explored. Questions are raised as to the types of functions which jails should perform, the appropriateness of jail services, and alternatives for the administration of jails. The authors suggest that solutions to the various issues require active involvement of an informed public providing policy direction to the criminal justice system. The paper concludes by observing that many of these critical jail issues can find satisfactory solution when there is a joint commitment on the part of practitioners, researchers, and the community sector to actively seek answers.     

Going to Jail Sucks (And It Really Doesn’t Matter Who You Ask)

A growing body of research suggests that, according to both offenders and criminal justice practitioners, jails and correctional boot camps are viewed and experienced as significantly more punitive than prison. Nevertheless, limited research exists examining the perceptions of the public regarding jail conditions and operations. Using responses from 1,183 Kentucky adults, we examine public opinion regarding the punitiveness of jail when compared to prison. We determine that, with the exception of boot camp, respondents feel that jail is the most punitive noncapital sanction. Additionally, respondents who had been convicted of a felony at some point in their lives and respondents with lower household income indicated that they would serve significantly less time in jail to avoid prison than their counterparts if given the option. Implications for policy and future research are discussed.     

The Issue of Control in Jail: The Effects of Professionalism,Detainee Control,and Administrative Support on Job Stress,Job Satisfaction,and Organizational Commitment among Jail Staff

Jails are important, yet understudied, components of the American criminal justice system. While most research on correctional personnel has focused on prisons, a growing body of work is beginning to emerge on jails. This is encouraging given the unique circumstances that occur within jail environments (e.g., diversity and mobility of offenders, health issues among detainees, overcrowding, lack of training among staff, etc.). Given these conditions, the staff members who run jails become the glue that holds them together. The following study contributes to this burgeoning area of empirical inquiry by examining a variety of antecedents of job stress, job satisfaction, and organizational commitment among jail personnel. Using survey data collected from a large county correctional system in Orlando, Florida, the findings indicate that staff perceptions of professionalism, detainee control, and administrative support all significantly impact degrees of job stress, job satisfaction, and organizational commitment.     

公安监所“80后”在押人员感化教育问题研究

感化教育在押人员是公安监所工作的一项主要任务,是确保监所安全和从事公安监所管理工作的监管民警必须掌握和运用的基础工作。研究＂80后＂在押人员感化教育问题,是做好转型时期监管工作的基础,是提高监管工作质量和深挖犯罪工作科学化的有效途径。     

The relationship of jail population to operating costs in southern county jails

The cost of providing correctional services has been soaring in recent years, reaching a figure of $72.9 million for counties in eight southern states in 1974. Prisoner populations in these county jails ranged from one to 653. Such large outlays by small and often poorly financed governmental bodies combined with the apparent variations in jail size suggest that evidence concerning the relationship between scale of operation and average variable cost might be of significant value to local decision-makers.This paper begins with a review of previous work related to economies of scale in the public sector to provide a basis for understanding the costs associated with local jails. It proceeds to the development of a theory of the factors which affect operating costs in southern county jails—including scale of operation. These factors are then incorporated in a multiple-regression model of average variable cost. The findings indicate that approximately 90 percent of the variation in operating cost per prisoner is explained by the several independent variables of which wages, security and technology are statistically significant. Since jail size has no significant effect on operating cost per prisoner, a horizontal average variable cost curve is implied and no net economies of scale are revealed.     

Recruiting the Next Generation of Jail Employees: Does Generational Relevance or Agency Size Make a Difference?

Given their multiple functions, inadequate funding, and generally low visibility, America??s jails have sustained an ongoing struggle to recruit a sufficient quantity and quality of applicants to effectively fulfill their mission. Although the current economic downturn has temporarily curtailed turnover, postponed retirements, and intensified job competition, the cyclical nature of economic developments assures that jails will once again be forced into aggressive recruitment rivalry. To proactively address such upcoming challenges, it is essential to determine how jails can most productively target and select the best candidates. Providing information to assist jail administrators in that regard, a national survey was conducted to identify what attracted various age groups to jail employment, in order to ascertain whether a differential recruitment focus is needed to attract the new generation of workers. Jail size was also considered in terms of whether the ease or difficulty of progression through the selection screening process made a difference. Most revealing, however, was the lack of statistically-significant differences between various generational cohorts. Virtually all age groups were in substantial agreement that the extrinsic attractions of jail employment??such as salary, benefits, pension plan, and job stability--were their most important job consideration factors. Overall, findings point toward the recruitment benefit that jails may potentially derive from capitalizing on the advantages of being a steady rock of dependable employment, especially in times that are characterized by job insecurity and economic hardships.     

Trouble in Mayberry: A national analysis of suicides and attempts in small jails

Despite the fact that there are approximately 1,775 American jails of 99 beds or less, little is known about how these jails function, or the challenges that they confront. This study examined the problem of suicides and attempted suicides in small jails, finding that the prevalence of these incidents is two to five times greater than in their larger counterparts. Net of other factors, jails that had higher rates of admissions, as well as overcrowded facilities had a positive relationship with suicide attempts. We also found that jails that reported higher concentrations of special needs inmates were significantly associated with attempts. Specifically, facilities that had higher levels of long-term inmates were positively associated with suicide attempts. While almost one-fifth of small jails did not use formal suicide assessments at admission, and only slightly more than one-half of these facilities provided annual suicide training to jail officers, these factors were not significantly associated with suicide attempts in 2004. Implications for future research and practice are outlined.     

New construction as a solution to jail overcrowding: Some policy and funding considerations

Summary and Conclusion The problem of overcrowding in jails will not quickly go away. it is a safe prediction that there will be a trickle down effect on jail populations from increased incarcerations derived from gettough policies on drug offenders, for example. Whatever the reasons for overcrowding, the issue of new jail construction over the nation as a whole will be an on-going one, emphasizing the obvious valuein the sharing of information in the professional community. Those involved in the construction decisions must be alert to the long-term consequences of those construction decisions, and planning methods. It is one thing for the jail to stand there as a testimony to correctional architecture. It is every bit as important that everyone affected by the decisions appreciates what was involved, since the conceptual legacy of the (new) jail is ultimately just as important as the building itself.     

Education, empowerment and community based structural reinforcement: an HIV prevention response to mass incarceration and removal

In the context of US urban jails, incarceration is often seen as an opportune intervention point for prevention interventions in public health. For the detained individual, it is an opportunity to reflect on individual choices and the potential for changes in one's life course. For population focused public health professionals, jail detention facilities represent a concentration of health risks, and an opportunity to have an impact on a significant portion of those at risk for HIV and other health concerns. This paper presents an innovative education and empowerment model that bridges across jail walls, beginning on the inside, and continuing on the outside of jail where individuals continue to be challenged and supported toward positive health and social choices. The intervention also seeks to foment community activism in the communities to which jail detainees return, thus aiming to have a structural impact. This paper examines both the intervention model and the challenges of examining the effectiveness claims for the intervention at multiple levels.     

Suicidal hangings in jail using telephone cords

In a three month period of 2000, three suicide hanging deaths involving the use of telephone cords occurred in Texas jails and were autopsied at the Southwestern Institute of Forensic Sciences in Dallas. In each case, the telephone was located within the cell, allowing the prisoners unhindered access at any time. Because of these incidents, two of the jails shortened their receiver cords to a total length of 6-8 in. The telephones were otherwise unaltered, and are still in the same locations. The third jail replaced their entire phone with a cordless telephone. Despite the attention that these cases received, standards have not been set regarding the type or placement of telephones used within jail cells, and a fourth incident in 2002 underscores this ongoing problem. These three incidents highlight the need to provide telephones that, if placed within holding cells or other jail cells, do not provide a possible means of suicide.