Crime patterns and their relation to subjective social stress and support indicators: The role of gender

This study investigated the relationship between the subjective perception of stress and support in the population (as independent variables) and the prevalence of homicide, robbery, and property offenses in society, while controlling for the effect of gender, i.e., how these crimes are related to the differential perception of stress and support among males and females. The theoretical framework is provided by a stress-support model which postulates that crime in society will be positively related to stress factors and negatively related to support systems. Eight stress indicators and four support (solidarity) indicators were included. The data regarding these indicators were derived from continuing surveys of representative samples of the urban population in Israel during the years 1967–1979. The theoretical model was supported by the findings, especially those relating to property offenses. The effects of the female indicators were strongest (and greater than those of males) with regard to property offenses. The regression coefficients of the female indicators were also consistently larger than those of males, indicating that women's perceptions of stress are better predictors of crime rates than those of males. The results are compared to those of previous studies and suggestions are made for future studies in this new line of criminological research.     

When is violence planned?

We examine what types of violent offenses tend to be planned using self-report data from a nationally representative sample of state and federal inmates. We find mixed support for the idea that predatory offenses are more likely to be planned than dispute-related offenses. As expected, robbery offenders are much more likely to report that they planned their crime ahead of time than homicide and physical assault offenders. However, sexual assault offenders are no more likely to report planning than homicide offenders. We also find mixed support for the idea that domestic violence-the supposed crime of passion-is less likely to be planned than violent offenses involving strangers. Finally, we find substantial demographic variation depending on type of crime. Robberies involving offenders of lower socioeconomic status and homicides and assaults involving African American offenders and victims are less likely to involve planning.     

STRUCTURAL FACTORS AND BLACK INTERRACIAL HOMICIDE: A NEW EXAMINATION OF THE CAUSAL PROCESS*

This study evaluates the assumption that deprivation among African Americans and racial inequality lead to black interracial homicide due to racial conflict and antagonism. Using refined race‐adjusted Supplemental Homicide Report data, Uniform Crime Report data and census data, we test an alternative hypothesis that draws on the macrostructural opportunity theory to assess and more accurately specify the relationship between structural characteristics and black interracial homicide. We find that first, the relationship between economic factors and black interracial homicide can be explained in large part by high rates of financially motivated crime such as robbery, and second, that economic factors are associated with financially motivated but not expressive black interracial killings. Analyses of black intraracial killings are performed for comparison purposes. Collectively, the findings suggest that conflict‐based explanations rooted in racial antagonism and frustration aggression may be premature.     

THE IMPACT OF ORDER‐MAINTENANCE POLICING ON NEW YORK CITY HOMICIDE AND ROBBERY RATES: 1988‐2001*

Local officials and national observers have attributed the New York City drop in violent crime during the 1990s to the aggressive enforcement of public order, but relevant research is limited and yields contrasting conclusions regarding the effects of order‐maintenance policing (OMP) on violent crime trends in New York City. The current study investigates the effects of order‐maintenance arrests on precinct‐level robbery and homicide trends in New York City with more reliable crime and arrest data, longer time series, and more extensive controls for other influences than used in prior research. We find statistically significant but small crime‐reduction effects of OMP and conclude that the impact of aggressive order enforcement on the reduction in homicide and robbery rates in New York City during the 1990s was modest at best.     

TREND AND DEVIATION IN CRIME RATES: A COMPARISON OF UCR AND NCS DATA FOR BURGLARY AND ROBBERY*

Trends and year-to-year deviations in UCR and NCS data on burglary and robbery are examined for the period 1973 to 1985. We find strong correspondence between year-to-year deviations in UCR crime rates and NCS victimization rates for both crime types. The difference between the two data series lies primarily in their contrasting trends, although there is some evidence that trends in UCR and NCS crime rates have been converging in recent years. Ex post forecasts reveal that the UCR/NCS relationships estimated from the 1973–1985 data continued through 1986 and 1987. Although the UCR rates in 1986 were somewhat influenced by unusual increases in the proportion of crimes reported to the police that year, changes in crime reporting for the period as a whole have had little effect on UCR burglary and robbery rates. We conclude that, within the two serious crime types examined in this study, there is strong consistency between the alternative data sources on variations in crime rates over time.     

PROACTIVE POLICING AND ROBBERY RATES ACROSS U.S. CITIES*

In recent years, criminologists, as well as journalists, have devoted considerable attention to the potential deterrent effect of what is sometimes referred to as “proactive” policing. This policing style entails the vigorous enforcement of laws against relatively minor offenses to prevent more serious crime. The current study examines the effect of proactive policing on robbery rates for a sample of large U.S. cities using an innovative measure developed by Sampson and Cohen (1988). We replicate their cross-sectional analyses using data from 2000 to 2003, which is a period that proactive policing is likely to have become more common than that of the original study—the early 1980s. We also extend their analyses by estimating a more comprehensive regression model that incorporates additional theoretically relevant predictors. Finally, we advance previous research in this area by using panel data, The cross-sectional analyses replicate prior findings of a negative relationship between proactive policing and robbery rates. In addition, our dynamic models suggest that proactive policing is endogenous to changes in robbery rates. When this feedback between robbery and proactive policing is eliminated, we find more evidence to support our finding that proactive policing reduces robbery rates.     

A Longitudinal Analysis of Japanese Crime From 1926 to 1987: The Pre-War,War, and Post-War Eras

This study examines Japanese crime trends and explores an area rarely investigated by researchers. By focusing on relationships between penal code offenses known to the police and population growth in Japan over the last six decades, it is possible to gain further insight into Nihon's (Japan's) low crime figures. In addition, the paper compares Japanese and American crime rates for selected offenses. The findings support previous research that identified low levels of crime in Japan. During the 62 year period included in this study, population and population density increased considerably in Japan, but crime rates, after fluctuations immediately before and after World War II, dropped significantly. On the average, total penal code offenses, homicide, and arson were greater during the pre-war years, and rape, robbery, and all felonies, as a composite, were higher in the post-war era.     

The influences of incident and contextual characteristics on crime clearance of nonlethal violence: A multilevel event history analysis

Using multilevel event history analyses, this article investigates the effects of both incident and contextual (social disorganization and police resources) factors on crime clearance by arrest for robbery, forcible rape, and aggravated assault incidents in 106 cities. The analysis found that victim's age, the number of concomitant offenses and victims, victim's injury, and weapon use played important roles in crime clearance for all three types of nonlethal violent incidents. Among social disorganization variables, higher unemployment and racial segregation significantly decreased the odds of clearance for robbery and aggravated assault, but not for rape. Instead, higher divorce rates significantly decreased the odds of rape clearance. This suggests that social disorganization may play a different role in the clearance mechanisms for sexual than for nonsexual violent offenses. The effects of police resource variables on clearance were not significant in the expected direction for any of the three types of incidents.     

Race, economic inequality, and violent crime

The current study used data drawn from the National Incident-Based Reporting System (NIBRS) and the census to investigate the relationship between indicators of interracial and intraracial economic inequality and violent crime rates, including White-on-Black, White-on-White, Black-on-White, and Black-on-Black offenses. Multivariate regression results for ninety-one cities showed that while total inequality and intraracial inequality had no significant association with offending rates, interracial inequality was a strong predictor of the overall violent crime rate and the Black-on-Black crime rate. Overall, these results were interpreted as consistent with J.R. Blau and Blau's (1982) relative deprivation thesis, with secondary support for P.M. Blau's (1977) macrostructural theory of intergroup relations. The findings also helped to clarify the unresolved theoretical issue regarding which reference group was most important in triggering relative deprivation among Blacks. It appeared that prior studies were unable to find support for the relative deprivation thesis for Black crime rates because of data and methodological limitations.     

聚众哄抢财物与聚众“打砸抢”的刑法教义学

聚众哄抢财物行为通常成立聚众哄抢罪;哄抢使用中厂房的物资设备的,是聚众哄抢罪与破坏生产经营罪的想象竞合犯,以聚众哄抢罪定罪处罚;聚众是与哄抢并列的行为或者是哄抢行为的方式或状态,说明了聚众哄抢罪的必要共同犯罪特征;成立聚众哄抢罪未必要有首要分子组织、策划或纠集;聚众哄抢罪的对象是他人占有的动产或者不动产中可以分离的部分;哄抢的本质是公然抢夺或盗窃;不符合聚众哄抢罪的哄抢财物行为可认定为抢夺罪或盗窃罪;聚众哄抢罪与抢夺罪、盗窃罪的共犯有差异;哄抢人采取对人暴力或胁迫等方式,压制被害人反抗而哄抢财物的成立抢劫罪,聚众哄抢罪可以成立事后抢劫;聚众"打砸抢"是聚众实施某些寻衅滋事行为的特别规定;"致人伤残、死亡"应限制解释为聚众"打砸"人所致;"毁坏或者抢走公私财物"是抢劫罪的法律拟制,首要分子以外的人成立寻衅滋事罪(或与敲诈勒索罪、聚众哄抢罪、故意毁坏财物罪等的想象竞合犯)。     

Acquisitive Crime and Inflation in the United States: 1960–2012

Objectives

Inflation is conspicuous by its absence from recent research on crime and the economy. We argue that price inflation increases the rate of crimes committed for monetary gain by fueling demand for cheap stolen goods.

Methods

The study includes inflation along with indicators of unemployment, GDP, income, consumer sentiment, and controls in error correction models of acquisitive crime covering the period from 1960 to 2012. Both short- and long-run effects of the predictors are estimated.

Results

Among the economic indicators, only inflation has consistent and robust short- and long-run effects on year-over-year change in the offense types under consideration. Low inflation helps to explain why acquisitive crime did not increase during the 2008–2009 recession. Imprisonment rates also have robust long-run effects on change in acquisitive crime rates.

Conclusions

Incorporating inflation into studies of crime and the economy can help to reduce the theoretical and empirical uncertainty that has long characterized this important research area in criminology.

     

THE NEUTRALIZATION OF CRIMINAL OFFENSE

A previously untested proposition from Sykes and Matza's neutralization theory is that certain types of offenders will favor certain types of neutralizing excuses. Murderers, for example. may tend toward denial of responsibility or denial of the victim. A competing hypothesis, derived from Hindelang's challenges to neutralization and drift theories, is that offenders would favor excuses keyed to offenses similar to their own. Robbers, for example, may favor excuses for robbery over excuses for other offenses. regardless of the content of the excuses themselves. The data presented in this article, based on o survey of inmates in four Florida prisons, fail to support either hypothesis. This may suggest that the two perspectives from which the hypotheses are derived are overly simplistic-that the nature of crime and delinquency is more subtle and complex than indicated by either the subcultural or antisubcultural theoretical traditions.     

A TIME SERIES ANALYSIS OF VIOLENT CRIME AND ITS RELATION TO PROLONGED STATES OF WARFARE: THE ISRAELI CASE*

This study examines the effect of security-related stressors (e.g., wars and more prolonged states of belligerence) on violent crime patterns. Two alternative hypotheses are put forward: the cohesion hypothesis, which predicts a decrease in criminal violence in times of increased security-related stress, and the legitimation-habituation hypothesis, which predicts an increase in criminal violence in such periods. The study uses monthly data collected in Israel over 15 years. Security-related casualties and incidents are the security-related stressors, homicide and robbery are the measures of criminal violence, and economic and sociodemographic indicators are the control variables. The analysis uses a multiple regression model with autoregressive errors. The reported number of casualties had a significant marginal positive effect on homicide, thus supporting the legitimation-habituation hypothesis. Such an effect could not be detected for the robberies series. Inflation increments had a strong positive effect on both series, and rates of unemployment had a significant marginal positive effect on robbery but not on homicide. The effects of the various stressors are not contemporaneous but extend to several months ahead. Some theoretical aspects of the findings and their implications for Israeli society are discussed.     

AN EXPLORATION OF THE DETERMINANTS OF REPORTING CRIME TO THE POLICE IN THE CITY OF TIANJIN,CHINA*

Western research has investigated three types of correlates of crime reporting–victim‐specific (individual or household), incident‐specific, and environment‐specific variables. The current study applies this general, analytical framework to explore the determinants of crime reporting to the police in contemporary urban China. Using data collected from a recent survey of criminal victimization in Tianjin, we assess the determinants for reporting of robbery, assault, personal theft, and household burglary. The results consistently show that offense seriousness is a significant predictor of reporting for all offenses studied. Also, a nonlinear relationship between neighborhood disadvantage and reporting of burglary is found. In contrast, individual‐specific and household‐specific factors do not affect reporting, with the exception of a cumulative measure of victimization experience. Measures of neighborhood social cohesion and informal control are also not associated with reporting. The implications of these findings are discussed with reference to the unique neighborhood organizational infrastructure in urban China.     

SPREADING THE WEALTH: THE EFFECT OF THE DISTRIBUTION OF INCOME AND RACE/ETHNICITY ACROSS HOUSEHOLDS AND NEIGHBORHOODS ON CITY CRIME TRAJECTORIES*

This study tests the effect of the composition and distribution of economic resources and race/ethnicity in cities, as well as how they are geographically distributed within these cities, on crime rates during a 30‐year period. Using data on 352 cities from 1970 to 2000 in metropolitan areas that experienced a large growth in population after World War II, this study theorizes that the effect of racial/ethnic or economic segregation on crime is stronger in cities in which race/ethnicity or income are more salient (because of greater heterogeneity or inequality). We test and find that higher levels of segregation in cities with high levels of racial/ethnic heterogeneity lead to particularly high overall levels of the types of crime studied here (aggravated assaults, robberies, burglaries, and motor vehicle thefts). Similarly, higher levels of economic segregation lead to much higher levels of crime in cities with higher levels of inequality.     

The effects of the second Intifada,terrorist acts,and economic changes on adolescent crime rates in Israel: A research note

Designed as a field quasi-experiment, this study analyzes the differences in Jewish adolescent crime rates before and after the inception of the second Intifada (September, 2000). Data covers the years between 1996 and 2003. The study focused on the relationship between the number of terrorist acts, the number of deaths in these acts, economic changes, and crime rates (murder, manslaughter, assault, mugging and robbery and property-related). The findings of the study were analyzed in terms of current theories on the impact of social and security-related stress on adolescents. The results show that the second Intifada has had significant effects on male adolescent crime rates. In particular, the number of terrorist acts was significantly associated with the following offences: assault, robbery, and manslaughter. No significant differences were found for adolescent female crime rates. Economic changes were significantly negatively related both to male adolescent crime for all the offences studied, as well as to property-related female offences.     

STRUCTURAL SOURCES OF VARIATION IN RACE-AGE-SPECIFIC RATES OF OFFENDING ACROSS MAJOR U.S. CITIES*

Recently, much attention has been focused on the structural determinants of variations in crime rates across U.S. cities. Virtually all research in this area has utilized aggregate reported offense rates as the dependent variable. While it provides a good indicator of the total volume of crime, the aggregate crime rate suffers two major disadvantages-it obscures individual- and aggregate-level effects, and it does not allow testing of criminological theory which specifies differential effects of economic variables (for example, poverty, inequality) on offending rates for various population subgroups (for example, black adults, white adults). The present study addresses these issues by examining the economic determinants of age, race, and crime-specific offending rates for a sample of the nation's largest cities. The overall results suggest that income inequality has a direct positive effect on black offending rates for serious crime, whereas black poverty has no effect. In contrast, white poverty has positive effects on white violence, while inequality significantly increases white robbery and burglary. The implications of findings for recent theoretical developments of conflict and relative deprivation theory are assessed.     

On the Limits of Social Control: Structural Deterrence and the Policing of “Suppressible” Crimes

The present study examined the relationships between patterns of police arrests and subsequent variations in robbery, burglary, and aggravated assault in New York City police precincts from 1989 to 1998. Grounded in the structural deterrence theoretical perspective, and using a two‐stage fixed‐effects statistical framework, the study found that while controlling for indicators of social disorganization, increases in arrest vigor (i.e., arrests per officer for violent crimes in each precinct and raw arrest counts) predicted decreases in robbery and burglary, but that the relationships were non‐linear: as arrest vigor increased, robbery and burglary crime decreased; when arrest thresholds were reached, however, both robbery and burglary crime rates became positively associated with arrest aggressiveness. Conversely, variations in aggressive arrest patterns had no significant effect on aggravated assault, supporting the suppressible crimes arguments that primarily economically motivated crimes, and those that tend to occur in public settings, are most likely deterred by aggressive police practices.     

AN ERRORS-IN-VARIABLE MODEL OF THE EFFECT OF POVERTY ON URBAN HOMICIDE RATES

Inconsistent findings on the relationship between poverty and violent crime have led some authors to question the presence of a structural relationship. There is reason, however, to believe that many of the existing estimates are biased because measures of poverty contain errors which are confounded with disturbances in the estimated models. In this paper we specify and estimate a model which accommodates the measurement error and provides an instrumental variable estimate of the effects of poverty on homicide rates in the 49 largest cities in the U.S. Compared to similar OLS estimates, the instrumental variable estimates are much larger and fit a model in which poverty increases the homicide rate. The results are similar when homicides are divided into four types: family homicides, other primary homicides, robbery homicides, and other-felony homicides     

Poisson-Based Regression Analysis of Aggregate Crime Rates

This article introduces the use of regression models based on the Poissondistribution as a tool for resolving common problems in analyzing aggregatecrime rates. When the population size of an aggregate unit is small relativeto the offense rate, crime rates must be computed from a small number ofoffenses. Such data are ill-suited to least-squares analysis. Poisson-basedregression models of counts of offenses are preferable because they arebuilt on assumptions about error distributions that are consistent withthe nature of event counts. A simple elaboration transforms the Poissonmodel of offense counts to a model of per capita offense rates. Todemonstrate the use and advantages of this method, this article presentsanalyses of juvenile arrest rates for robbery in 264 nonmetropolitancounties in four states. The negative binomial variant of Poisson regressioneffectively resolved difficulties that arise in ordinary least-squaresanalyses.