中东欧地区大国博弈新态势--兼论中国-中东欧国家合作面临的挑战与机遇

在地缘安全、能源、价值观等方面,美国、以德国为主要代表的欧盟国家以及俄罗斯在中东欧地区有着广泛而重要的利益。三者的互动关系呈现美俄博弈主导中东欧安全形势,美德(欧)联合制俄但共识有限,美德(欧)对中国在中东欧的经济介入保持警惕但难以形成合力三个特征。随着中美竞争的持续,美德(欧)与以波兰、匈牙利为代表的中东欧国家在价值观上的分歧扩大,美德(欧)对俄罗斯的地缘政治攻势升级,中东欧地区的大国力量格局发生了新的变化。美国对中国的战略围堵压力持续加大,以德国为代表的欧盟国家对中东欧国家的控制力不断降低,俄罗斯反“守”为“攻”回应西方威胁,而德国新政府和新一届欧盟委员会对华政策更加突出价值观因素,导致中国—中东欧国家合作面临的地缘政治压力总体上有增无减。但是,美欧内部也并非铁板一块,以德国为代表的欧盟国家在中东欧控制力的弱化以及美欧与波兰、匈牙利等国关系的恶化,也为持续推进中国—中东欧国家合作带来了潜在机遇。以上因素作为影响中东欧国家对华政策的重要变量,需要密切关注。     

欧亚地区:俄美争夺愈演愈烈

去年上半年,由美国主导的北约和美国盟友欧盟完成历史上最大规模的扩大,分别吸纳了中东欧7国和10国,此举从根本上改变了欧洲政治安全格局,极大地挤压了俄罗斯的战略空间。与此同时,美继续向俄的"后院"独联体渗透,与俄在乌克兰和白俄罗斯进行公开对决;继续向中亚地区渗透,对吉尔吉斯斯坦今年新一届议会,总统选举施     

中东欧诸国为何追求加入欧盟?

欧盟东扩和中东欧国家入盟,无疑是双赢的大事.但欧盟推行的是"争取加限制"的政策,侧重于使中东欧国家成为其产品倾销地,而不是使其经济迅速发展起来成为其竞争对手.欧盟在"欢迎"的同时,提出了苛刻的入盟条件.     

中东欧地区的大国因素：利益格局及其影响

21世纪第二个十年以来,世界主要大国加大对中东欧地区的关注和投入力度,大国博弈加剧。欧盟在中东欧地区发挥主导作用,德国是中东欧国家最重要的经贸和政治伙伴,俄罗斯凭借能源优势和文化软实力"重返"中东欧地区,美国通过提供军事安全和能源供应深度介入中东欧地区,欧德俄美基于各自比较优势占据了与中东欧国家合作的有利位置。了解上述国家或国际组织在中东欧地区的利益关切及其与中东欧国家关系的特点,对于更好地理解和推进中国—中东欧国家合作具有重要的现实意义。     

俄乌冲突助燃俄欧“斗气”

近一段时期以来,俄乌边境冲突不断升级。欧盟担心俄罗斯对乌克兰用兵,俄罗斯则明确反对北约东扩到乌克兰。在俄欧因乌克兰问题发生冲突的背景下,双方开始“斗气”,俄罗斯以停止向欧洲供应天然气相威胁,试图迫使德国加快批准“北溪-2”运行,但德国并无让步之意,欧盟民众只好忍受天然气供应不足和气价不断上涨之苦。无论是俄乌冲突还是俄欧争端,其背后都是大国的地缘政治博弈。     

历史演进视角下的欧盟与北约关系走向——兼析拜登当选的影响

自欧盟确立共同安全与防务政策以来,欧盟独立防务与北约之间存在着“相互替代”和“相互增强”两种论调。争论焦点在于价值观念、威胁评估和战略文化、军事和民事能力、国防工业和支出。在过去几年,欧盟与北约的关系也围绕上述四个方面发生变化。具体而言,欧盟与北约之间总体上呈现以合作为主、竞争为辅、两者同步增强的发展态势。美国新任总统拜登承诺修复美国与盟友的关系,包括进一步加强北约。同时,美、欧将在价值观念上回归“旧常态”,在威胁评估和战略文化上进一步靠拢,在民事和军事手段的运用以及增加国防工业投入上也会有更多共识和共同行动。因此,欧盟与北约的关系将进一步呈现相互增强的态势,但前提是欧盟的战略自主建设不只是出于做强自身,而是更多地为了使欧、美双方公平承担相应的责任。     

美俄关系十年

苏联解体后,俄罗斯同美国的关系发展已经走过了十个年头。从布什到克林顿推行“消化”和“转化”并尽可能削弱俄罗斯的政策,目的在于使它融入西方社会。俄罗斯领导人为了巩固自己的政治统治、摆脱国内政治、经济和社会困境,谋求美国的全面支持。俄罗斯曾一度推行完全倒向西方、特别是美国的外交政策。美俄关系出现短暂的和谐。 美国损人利己的政策引起了俄罗斯的警觉。俄罗斯逐渐认识到维护国家利益和尊严必须制定和实行独立的外交政策。美国不断挤压俄罗斯的战略空间、损害其国家与战略利益。俄罗斯对此进行了适度的抗争。美俄关系进入合作、竞争乃至僵冷状态。 “9.11”事件为美俄关系的调整与改善提供了机遇。反对恐怖主义的共同利益使美国和俄罗斯迅速接近。两国关系出现了积极发展的良好的势头。但是,反恐斗争中的合作并不能弥合两国在国家和战略利益上的分歧。美俄关系的发展仍然面临着许多难题。     

读者与编者

美欧的对俄战略冲突无论是北约还是欧盟对俄罗斯有相似的改造目标。例如,北约-俄罗斯委员会致力于促进俄罗斯军队改革;欧盟-俄罗斯“共同空间”则是为了促进俄罗斯经济和社会的欧洲化、加强俄罗斯与欧洲的政治交往;欧洲委员会则被用来提升俄罗斯的西方价值观和规范。在俄罗斯不再被视为最大的军事威胁后,美欧都在尝试着与这个昔日的敌人和平共处甚     

英国"脱欧"的历史缘由与前景展望

英国"脱欧"公投引发了英国主权与欧盟超国家治理之间的矛盾,英国的外交政策与国际发展之间的联系将变得愈发紧密,并牵动英国、欧盟与北约等多边关系的走向。"脱欧"后的英国对国家的掌控将有所加强,但其在欧洲和全球的地位和影响力将遭受挑战。英国"脱欧"是其传统对欧政策和现实政治交织的产物,"脱欧"公投呈现出英国地域、阶层和族群的差异性。英国政党的对欧政策不能完全违背传统对欧政策的"孤立主义"原则。英国未来将面临诸多调整,成功与否取决于政党能否达成共识,并使其成为真正符合"人民意志"的期待。回归历史与传统则是英国发展的基本走向。     

乌克兰危机是运筹中美俄欧关系的契机

<正>乌克兰危机是苏联解体以来俄罗斯与西方长期较量的最大危机。危机虽然由乌欧关系引起,实质是美俄地缘政治争夺。美国的战略考虑是,通过策划乌克兰政变削弱俄罗斯复兴的关键性基础、离间俄欧(德)关系及俄中关系,防止欧亚大陆走向一体化,以便重返亚太、集中精力应对中国的崛起。危机将对国际格局和国际规则产生深远影响,也将对美国重返亚太战略带来重大掣肘,是对美国霸权诚信的严峻考验。     

Poland's conception of European security and Russia

This article examines the problem of contemporary bilateral relations between Poland and Russia. Its thesis largely attributes the rivalry of these two states in Eastern Europe to conceptions relating to the balancing and bandwagoning of power. This rivalry can be put down to the fact that Polish-Russian relations are being developed within broader global processes such as Russia's relations with NATO, the USA and European Union. The greatest obstacle to the maintenance of mutually beneficial relations is the sensitive issue of security. In recent years Poland has consistently underlined its willingness to reinforce NATO's mutual defense mechanisms by supporting the organization's continued presence in Central-Eastern Europe. This issue has been compounded by Poland's striving to bring the countries of Eastern Europe (especially Ukraine) into closer affiliation with Western institutions favoring European integration, which is evidently perceived as interference in what is regarded by Moscow to be a sphere of Russian influence. This has provoked a number of serious crises in bilateral relations between Poland and Russia since the Euro-Maidan Revolution in Ukraine. Russian plans to install new (Iskander) missile systems close to the Polish border and Poland's effective attempts post-2014 to extend NATO presence within its own country testify to the scale of conflicts of interest between the two states and the lack of trust afforded by both sides. The issues highlighted in this paper are of great importance, since they not only enable the complexity of Central European issues to be more fully comprehended but also help to elucidate other global actors' conceptions relating to cooperation with Europe.     

Military twists and turns in world politics: downsides or dividends for UN peace operations?

Russia’s challenge to the post-cold war order, and the rise of Islamic State have resulted in a call for increased military spending among NATO members. Despite the increased demand for UN peace operations, any expansion is unlikely to benefit the world organisation. Instead we see an increasing reliance upon regional organisations like the African Union, European Union and NATO, in particular, for robust peace operations. An analysis of Western states (France, Germany and the USA) suggests that future investments in weaponry, technology and staff will primarily benefit NATO and the EU, but not the United Nations.     

Continuity and change in Russia's policy toward Central and Eastern Europe

The accession of the CEE states to NATO and the European Union has put an end to the geopolitical ambiguity and implicit insecurity in the region between Russia and the so-called ‘Old Europe’. Instead of being an area of great powers' rivalry, elements of ‘buffer belts’ lacking meaningful strategic options, objects of raw Nazi-Soviet deals, or zones under Russian occupation and domination, the three Baltic States and the Visegrad group countries became full-fledged members of the European Union and were given NATO's security guarantees. By the middle of the 2000s, one would conclude that traditional geopolitics had ended in this region.However, the changes in the strategic situation in CEE have not changed the deep rooted moving forces and long-term strategic goals of the Russian policy toward the region. Moscow seeks to have the position, as its official rhetoric says, of an ‘influential centre of a multipolar world’ that would be nearly equal to the USA, China, or the EU. With this in view Moscow seeks for the establishment of its domination over the new independent states of the former USSR and for the formation of a sphere of influence for itself in Central Eastern Europe. If it achieves these goals, then Europe may return once again to traditional geopolitics fraught with great power rivalries and permanent instabilities radiating far beyond CEE borders.Yet a few questions remain. Has Russia come to the conclusion that attempting to restore its privileged position of influence in Central-Eastern Europe is wrong? Has Russia enough power to threaten the CEE countries? How credible are NATO's security guarantees? How may Russian behavior in CEE affect a wider European geopolitical context? These questions are appropriate in the light of Russia's ‘resurgence’ as a revanchist power and because Russia is, and most probably will remain in the next five to ten years, a weighty economic and strategic factor in areas along the Western borders of the former USSR.     

The changing nature of the transatlantic link: U.S. approaches and implications for Central and Eastern Europe

This article examines the changing security, economic and diplomatic components of the transatlantic link, with a particular focus on Washington's approach and implications for Central and Eastern Europe. The United States continues to play an essential role as security underwriter in the region, but the military dimension of the transatlantic relationship is transforming and will result in greater burdens on Europeans. Economic links between the U.S. and Central Europe are developing more strongly than generally understood, and the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership is likely to drive both political and economic ties. Unconventional gas developments are enhancing U.S. engagement in European energy markets. Finally, the U.S. remains keen to engage its European partners on a broad agenda of global and regional issues and retains its own interests in working particularly with Central and Eastern European countries to lend stability to ‘wider Europe’.     

Informal Institutions in Azerbaijan: Exploring the Intricacies of Tapsh

Research on informal aspects of the post-communist economy and political institutions has developed rapidly since the collapse of the Soviet Union. While there is no lack in research on informal practices in Russia and other Eastern European countries, comprehensive empirical investigations of informality in peripheral regions of the former Soviet Union—such as the Caucasus and Central Asia—are still rare. This article aims to fill this gap by providing an evidence-based empirical account of informal practices in post-Soviet Azerbaijan. Drawing its empirical data from a two-decade-long ethnographic participant observation carried out in various locales of Azerbaijan’s capital, Baku, this study offers nuanced insights into the hitherto unexplored informal practice of tapsh.     

入盟后中东欧国家的发展困境

加入欧盟后,中东欧国家面临新的发展困境。这些困境表现在认同、政治思潮、双边关系、增长模式、安全和地缘政治等方面。造成困境的原因包括中东欧国家发展中的自身问题、欧盟结构和政策,以及欧洲与大西洋之间关系的影响等。目前,政治思潮、双边关系和经济增长模式困境的消极性和危害已经凸显,其他困境的潜在消极性亦不时显现。正确认识和多方参与化解这些困境已经成为中东欧国家、欧盟甚至美国所面临的挑战。     

Introduction

Central Eastern Europe (further CEE) has been thoroughly reconstructed during nearly a quarter of century since the fall of the Berlin wall and the end of the cold war. The CEE countries turned to the West for economic and technological advancement, for political and administrative models as well as for protection. The authors coming from eight different countries look at the place and role of the former member states of the Warsaw Pact in the new European and international constellation. This concept of CEE includes most pro-western states of the former ‘Eastern block’: the four countries of Central Europe (Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Hungary) and the Baltic states (Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia). There were many tumultuous political developments in and around the region within the last decade, and especially during the last five years when the financial crisis started to take its toll. While the Atlantic link of Central and Eastern Europe is still strong, many commentators have pointed out its wearing strategic meaning. The balance between the focus on the USA and the EU has shifted in favour of Europe. However, this shift has rather been an incomplete one due to the region's own political and economic problems. The aim of this special issue is to analyse the new constellation by looking at the CEE countries themselves, at their ability to react and adapt, produce sound political strategies and act on as national actors: through bilateral ties, regional co-operation, NATO and the EU. Also, the main external actors - the USA, Russia and Germany - are looked at as they directly influence the way how the CEE countries shape their policies.     

Poland's foreign policy since 1989: the challenges of independence

In its first decade of post-communist independence, Poland achieved far more than most dared believe in 1989. Despite domestic political and economic turmoil, it has joined Europe as a new member of NATO and a prospective member of the EU. This article traces the evolution of Polish foreign policy since 1989 over four time periods: First, the early uncertainties from 1989 to 1992 when Warsaw — caught between a reunifying Germany and a collapsing USSR — was intent on solidifying its relations with Central European neighbors. Second, the watershed year of 1993, which witnessed changes in every aspect of Poland's external relations — the demise of Visegrad, first moves toward NATO and EU enlargement, the emergence of serious tensions in Warsaw's relations with the East, especially Russia. Third, the years in the anterooms of Europe from 1994 to 1996, when Poland and its central European neighbors lobbied for early accession to the EU and NATO, while relations with Russia remained in the deep freeze. And fourth, the period since 1997, in which Warsaw has been negotiating its “return to Europe”, joining NATO in 1999 and actively pursuing membership in the EU. These gains have not come quickly or easily; rather, they demonstrate a hard earned consistency in Poland's foreign policy agenda, despite numerous changes in domestic politics, as well as an increasingly realistic vision of the country's place in post-Cold War Europe.     

The new great game in Central Asia post 2014: The US “New Silk Road” strategy and Sino-Russian rivalry

With the planned US and NATO withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2014 looming ever closer, and Central Asia's own future increasingly in doubt, major powers are all competing to enhance their influence in Central Asia. 2014 may mark a regional tipping point, but none can accurately predict how the regional balance might shift after the NATO withdrawal from Afghanistan. During 2009–2010, the signs of growing Russian dependence on China in terms of economy and energy were palpable, as were the signs of China successfully subordinating Russia to its Central Asian economic agenda. In 2011–2012, it was difficult to see Russia simply acquiescing in its subordination to China without reacting to that situation negatively. Since 2011, to avoid this dependence on China, Russia has vigorously pushed for its regional integration schemes. 2011 marked the launch of the US “New Silk Road” initiative. Great power regional integration schemes, however, undermine both regional and national development.