亚太地区安全架构的转型——内涵、趋势及战略应对

进入21世纪第二个十年后,亚太地区涌现出一系列新的安全矛盾,特别是国际社会高度聚焦的南海争端、钓鱼岛冲突以及中美战略竞争。笔者认为,当前亚太地区面临的安全挑战要复杂得多,其背后是正在渐获动力的亚太安全架构转型。从内涵上看,亚太安全架构的转型带来了四方面安全挑战:权势转移引发的安全竞争、领土领海争端的集中爆发、地区国家政治转型的安全后果以及经济全球化和社会信息化背景下的新型安全问题。尽管发展方向尚不明确,亚太安全架构的转型仍显现出两个重大趋势,即亚太地区的冷战结构正逐渐为一种后冷战结构所替代,亚太安全架构发展的核心驱动力正逐渐由美国主导转向由亚洲国家主导。要推动亚太安全架构朝向更加合理与自主的方向转变,亚太地区应进一步凝聚共识,积极打造符合21世纪和平发展特征的规则体系,推进地区安全合作机制建设,不断提高维护地区和平安全的能力,为真正承担起维护亚太和平安全的责任做好准备。     

亚太安全：概念与模式

冷战以后,亚太地区尚存在相当多的安全隐患。特别是自90年代中期以来,亚太安全形势急剧恶化。中国地处亚太,又是亚太地区大国,国家利益集中在亚太地区。中国与不少亚太国家长期存在领土争端,而且,在亚太地区,中国与其他大国存在地缘战略和国家统一上的矛盾与冲突,因此,中国政府和学者对亚太安全相当关注,理论界对此做了很大的努力与探索。本文想在此对学界在亚太安全方面所做的探索作一简单的鉴定,并在此基础上提出自己的见解。 一、对我国亚太安全研究的梳理 安全研究如同整个国际政治理论学科的发展一样,它体现着连续性与变化性的统一。在冷战后世界,安全问题仍然在国家战略、外     

亚太新格局及其对两岸关系的影响之研究

自2010年以来，美国在亚太地区加紧展开各方面新的部署，美国的举措对该地区的政治、经济、军事等关系和地区格局影响重大。本文分析了美国推行“亚太再平衡”战略对亚太地区局势产生的影响，提出亚太地区正面临战争与和平、独赢与普赢、猜忌与互信的抉择。文章探讨了亚太新局对两岸关系的影响，认为两岸难以超然于亚太新格局，两岸政治、经济和军事等方面的关系更加复杂化，但在亚太地区新的矛盾冲突中，两岸可以从新的视角谋求共同出路。     

全球化对亚太地区社会政治发展的影响及其回应

全球化是一种不以人们意志为转移的客观存在,其进程表现在经济、政治、文化、生态、社会等各个领域.全球化犹如一柄双刃剑,其作用和影响具有两面性,这在亚太地区表现得尤为明显.如何把握全球化机遇,趋利避害,实现亚太地区的可持续繁荣和稳定是亚太地区各国面临的重大理论和实践问题.     

亚太经合组织30年:亚太区域经济合作进程回顾与展望

亚太经合组织(APEC)成立30年来,在机制建设和多个合作领域取得了引人注目的成果。随着国际和亚太地区政治经济格局的演变,各种内部和外部因素的叠加给APEC带来了新的机遇和挑战。APEC应与时俱进,对新时期的亚太区域经济合作进程作出新的顶层设计和整体规划。作为中国加入的第一个区域经济合作组织,APEC给中国带来了多方面的经济和政治收益。展望未来,中国要在习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想特别是习近平外交思想指导下,进一步推动APEC在构建新型国际关系、人类命运共同体、开放型世界经济和"一带一路"建设等方面发挥重要作用。     

拉美国家与亚太区域经济一体化——合作进展与观念趋向

进入21世纪以来,随着地区间制度框架协定的不断搭建,拉美与亚太地区间经济交往日益加深,亚太地区已成为拉美地区最具活力的经贸合作伙伴。在美国主导推进跨太平洋伙伴关系协定、中国和东盟着力倡导区域全面经济伙伴关系、亚太自由贸易区逐步取得进展的背景下,拉美国家对亚太地区日趋多元化的区域经济合作格局受到广泛关注,以重点参与、积极推进的态度开展地区间合作,其中墨西哥、智利、秘鲁、哥伦比亚和哥斯达黎加等太平洋东岸拉美国家表现尤其突出。拉美次区域合作机制太平洋联盟则普遍被视为成员国融入亚太的重要平台。考虑到当前中拉合作所面临的机遇和挑战,拉美国家对待亚太经贸合作的这一立场与态度,有助于中国在推动拉美地区与亚太地区的地区间合作中发挥更为积极和主动的作用。     

世界动荡变革期亚太区域经济合作的韧性与张力

从亚太区域经济合作的历史演变来看,雁行的经济增长模式和紧密的区域生产网络、开放的地区主义原则、东盟中心性（东盟方式）以及以发展促安全的区域合作观,是亚太地区保持韧性和张力以克服挑战、实现区域合作持续深化的有力支撑。面对美国对华战略竞争加剧给亚太区域经济合作带来的严峻挑战,亚太各国应努力实现《区域全面经济伙伴关系协定》升级扩员,高水平推动“一带一路”倡议与各国发展战略有效对接,加强数字经济与绿色经济合作,推动亚太经济转向区域内生产与消费均衡发展的新模式。     

《区域全面经济伙伴关系协定》与亚太区域经济合作

经济全球化、自贸区建设与历次经济危机推动了亚太区域的经济合作进程.随着《区域全面经济伙伴关系协定》(RCEP)的签订,全球最大的自贸区得以建立,这是亚太经济一体化取得的重要阶段性成就.RCEP补充了中日、日韩等经济体间的自贸安排空缺,标志着东亚经济圈正式形成,预计会产生显著的经济效益.RCEP在货物服务贸易、原产地规则、电子商务等领域进行了重要的调整和创新,能够更好地提高区域内资源配置效率、促进产业转移和升级.RCEP会对其他主要的亚太区域经济机制产生积极影响,有力促进亚太地区的经济合作.     

21世纪初印度与亚太多边机制关系分析

随着世界经济的区域化和全球化,多边外交成为一个国家矗立于世界舞台的重要途径,尤其对新兴大国来说更是如此。为了尽快融入亚太地区,印度非常重视对多边外交的应用,积极开展与亚太多边机制的合作,努力使这种合作向制度化方向发展。本文主要分析印度与亚太多边机制关系发展的现状、动因及其意义。     

美国全球战略重点转向亚太地区

美国全球战略重点的转向源于冷战结束后,"两个战场"的形势发生了重要变化.在经济全球化和世界多极化的深入发展下,克林顿政府完成了对其传统安全型转为综合安全型的新全球战略的调整,重点逐渐趋向于亚太地区.布什政府上台后加快以亚太地区为重点的全球战略调整,还有其推行以NMD和"五维战争"为标志的新军事战略的图谋.美国全球战略重点转向亚太地区,将对亚太地缘战略格局产生较大影响.但受各种因素所限,其所作所为难以一厢情愿.     

The iPod and the Queen, the Kindle and the King

President Barack Obama has extended the hand of engagement to the Muslim and Arab world, while warning Israel against new settlements in occupied Palestine and hedging his bets with remote drone strikes against Al-Qaida and the Taliban in Pakistan. The new CIA director, a military historian and the Somali-born feminist Ayaan Hirsi Ali assess his strategy.     

Complex political emergencies and the state: Failure and the fate of the state

It is argued that an understanding of the role and nature of the state and of processes of state collapse are vital for understanding Complex Political Emergencies for various practical reasons and for drawing general lessons from particular experiences: CPEs are often rooted in prior state collapse; humanitarian assistance may have to contend with a fractured, ineffective or nonexistent state; part of post-conflict recovery will involve reconstituting the state. Such lessons can only be generalised where there is some degree of shared context and experience. As a tool for facilitating comparisons of like with like and for understanding the inter-relatedness of several factors, a typology of situations is drawn up on the basis of the state and its dynamics and of the origins, forms and trajectory of the CPE and of interventions into it.     

Bush's America and the New Exceptionalism: anti-Americanism,the Holocaust and the transatlantic rift

This article examines how the USA's growing ‘Holocaust consciousness’ has impacted on conservative interpretations of the transatlantic rift. Presenting the Holocaust as an antipode to US national identity has helped signal a moral divergence between the USA and Europe. The instrumentalisation of the Holocaust and anti-Semitism has allowed US conservatives to reframe norms of self-defence, victimisation, and liberation in justifying the invasion and occupation of Iraq. In the wake of Iraq claiming anti-Semitism as a ‘European disease’, and anti-Americanism and anti-Semitism as ‘twin brothers’, helps delegitimate European criticism of the war on terror. A new form of exceptionalism portrays the USA not only as the liberator of death camps and the protector of the Jewish people but, after 11 September, as a victim itself.     

从宪法性条约到条约性宪法--欧盟宪法的进步与局限

欧盟宪法与以前的欧洲一体化重要条约的区别在于,它已经超越了"宪法性条约"而成为"条约性宪法".欧盟宪法主要是欧洲的联邦主义者借欧盟扩大之机推进欧洲政治一体化的产物.欧盟宪法既有其巨大进步的一面,也有其难以克服的局限性一面.相比于现实意义,欧盟宪法的象征意义更大.欧盟宪法在批准过程中遇到的挫折是可以克服的,但是欧盟领导人不应当把一体化仅仅当作目的,而忽略其他对欧洲前途来说更重要的政治任务.     

Realism and renewals: Perry Anderson and the prospects for the left

Perry Anderson is a commanding figure within anglophone Marxism. Moreover, his position as editor of the English-speaking world's most authoritative Marxist journal, New Left Review , gives a unique influence to his strategic pronouncements. This article challenges Anderson's reading of the contemporary international conjuncture and argues that his outline of the present-day strategic position of the international left is unduly pessimistic. It is argued that his reading of that moment is based upon an understanding of Marxism that is heavily influenced by the thought of Isaac Deutscher. This interpretation of Marxism has led to an elision in Anderson's thought, as the focus of the struggle between capitalism and socialism has been displaced from the point of production to the tension between statist regimes of accumulation and laissezfaire economies. This article disputes both this approach and his suggestion that the victory of the laissez-faire economies in this conflict implies that the struggle for socialism is no longer a viable goal for Marxists.     

Using and abusing the concept of the Third World: geopolitics and the comparative political study of development and underdevelopment

This article argues that, while the notion of a ‘Third World’ retains relevance and usefulness in the context of geopolitical analysis, generalisations about Third World politics are no longer helpful or justifiable. It begins by reviewing the historic rationales for the notion of the Third World together with criticisms made of these arguments. It then considers reasons why the term may retain some value at a geopolitical level: in signalling a major axis of inequality, providing a symbolic basis for collective action and, possibly, as an alternative to less attractive perspectives. The article then turns more specifically to the field of comparative politics, suggesting that in the past the notion of a Third World could be justified pragmatically as a response to the insularity of Western political science and because there was, up to a point, a common paradigm of Third World politics. Such justifications have been undermined by the growth in specialist knowledge of individual Third World countries or regions together with increasing differentiation among them.