中国参与六方会谈:斡旋角色与前景

与第一次朝核危机中中国的表现相比,中国在第二次朝核危机中积极地承担起斡旋者的职责.中国愿意扮演斡旋者的角色源于其对朝核问题的认识发生了变化,而导致这种变化的主要原因是安全威胁.美国对朝鲜动武的可能性和朝鲜的冒险行为是对中国安全的重大威胁.中国认为,参加六方会谈不仅可以缓和朝鲜半岛的紧张局势,维护东北亚地区的和平与稳定,而且中国可以在六方会谈中发挥主导作用.中国未来对六方会谈的总体立场仍将是积极支持.     

俄罗斯朝鲜半岛外交的实践、特点与前景分析

俄罗斯在2010年朝鲜半岛两次危机中的外交实践表明,它希望在朝鲜半岛问题上扮演不偏不倚的调解人角色,以获取更大的发言权,达到维护并提高其在东北亚地区的国际地位,为远东地区安全和经济开发创造条件的目标.俄罗斯朝鲜半岛外交的特点在于:以维护南北平衡关系为主要原则；与中国、美国对朝鲜半岛的影响力相比,俄罗斯的作用较小；六方会谈的中断不利于俄罗斯的朝鲜半岛外交；随着战略重心东移,俄罗斯将加强对朝鲜半岛的外交.由于朝鲜半岛地理位置较远,对俄罗斯的战略价值也不是很突出,加上其他国家的限制以及俄罗斯对朝韩两国的影响力有限,俄罗斯在朝鲜半岛问题上很难改变目前边缘化参与者的地位.     

中国的朝鲜半岛政策评估——历史经验、当前成果与若干不足

中国的朝鲜半岛政策,历经朝贡体系、条约体系、冷战体系和冷战后体系四个主要阶段。从历史经验来看,一是中国的朝鲜半岛政策总体上以友好为主线、以和平为目的;二是中国的强大有助于朝鲜半岛的稳定与发展;三是当中国衰落时,朝鲜半岛往往成为外部入侵的跳板;四是制度化的安排有助于中国与朝鲜半岛国家关系的稳定发展;五是适时调整外交政策才能够不断获得滚动收益。当前中国对朝鲜半岛政策的主要成果,一是"北南并重"造就了中国在朝鲜半岛的独特政治地位;二是六方会谈成为解决朝核问题的重要机制;三是中国与朝鲜半岛国家经济合作取得显著成果,合作前景广阔;四是睦邻友好关系形成了良好的民间基础。不足之处,一是"等距离"外交带来了实质性差距;二是原则性政策突出,操作性策略不足;三是在朝鲜半岛事务沟通斡旋当中的桥梁作用有待进一步加强;四是中朝韩三边关系缺少战略性的统筹规划。     

中国对六方会谈的战略思考及演变

20世纪90年代中期以后,中国开始积极利用多边安全合作维护自身的利益。为了解决朝核危机,中国促成了六方会谈,并在会谈中发挥了建设性作用。和平解决朝核问题、维护国家安全以及通过会谈改善中美关系是中国的重要战略思考。提高国际形象以及推动朝核六方会谈向机制化方向发展也是中国的长远考虑。因六方会谈的长期中断和国际形势的变化,中国的基本战略思考也发生了微妙的演变,即中国希望朝核六方会谈的机能向一般意义上的安全对话平台方向扩展。另外,通过推动重启六方会谈的实际行动,表露了半岛危机必须和平解决的立场,借以维护朝鲜体制安定,同时也表现了愿与美国协作、和平解决地区安全问题的态度,以避免新的冷战出现。     

论韩国核不扩散政策与美韩联盟转型

韩国的核不扩散政策包括不进行纵向扩散和防止横向扩散两个方面,具有下述特点:承担不制造和拥有核武器的国际义务;努力实现朝鲜半岛无核武器化;重视通过六方会谈解决朝核问题.但韩国在核不扩散问题上仍面临严峻考验.现在如何阻止朝鲜拥有核武器是韩国的最大难题之一.冷战结束以来,美韩联盟正处于深刻的转型之中:在政治上,美韩联盟正由主从型向伙伴型转变;在军事指挥上,由美军主导向韩军自主转变;在作战协同上,将由以美军为主、韩军辅助向以韩军为主、美军辅助转变.美韩联盟向更平等伙伴方向转型有利于朝鲜半岛稳定和南北关系发展,韩国希望与朝鲜达成和平协定的愿望增强.重新部署驻韩美军将加强其作战和机动能力,不排除驻韩美军用于朝鲜半岛以外地区的可能性.美韩联盟在实现朝鲜半岛无核化进程中具有双重作用.     

浅析奥巴马政府的对朝政策

在应对处理朝鲜半岛危机中,美国一直扮演着一个关键的角色。奥巴马上台后,朝鲜半岛危机出现了急剧的变化,这也让人们对奥巴马政府的对朝政策更加关注。实际上,在2009年春美国国务卿希拉里访问亚洲后,奥巴马政府的对朝政策就产生了很大的变化。朝鲜半岛不断升级的紧张局势,使得美国有机会重振其世界领袖的雄风,重新确立美日韩在东亚的铁三角同盟关系,并通过不断的联合军事演习对朝鲜施加了除军事动武以外的巨大压力,同时也侧面敲击和缓解了中国力量在亚太地区伸展的势头。奥巴马的外交理念是做一个实际的理想主义者和一个有理想的现实主义者,其对朝政策的核心策略就是软的更软,硬的更硬,以硬逼软。     

六方会谈与朝日"绑架问题"

从2002年9月日本首相小泉纯一郎访问平壤、"朝鲜绑架日本人事件"得到证实之后,"绑架问题"不仅没有随着朝方道歉、送还被绑架者及其家属的积极姿态而逐步解决,反而呈现日益复杂化的趋向.进而,日本又努力把"绑架问题"纳入六方会谈,试图把"绑架、安保、建交"三大课题"捆绑解决",使得本就困难重重的朝鲜半岛无核化之路又增添了新的不确定因素."绑架问题"的最终解决关键在于朝日两国今后如何在《平壤宣言》的基础上通过双边谈判达成妥协.     

特朗普政府对朝政策趋向:新一轮“战略忍耐”?

特朗普上任三年多来,对朝政策先后经历了以"极限施压"为基调的第一年、以"峰会外交"为基调的第二年,目前开始向新一轮"战略忍耐"转轨。相对于奥巴马对朝"战略忍耐",特朗普新一轮对朝"战略忍耐"既有一定的继承性,也有不少新变化。美新一轮"战略忍耐"将不再奠基于"朝鲜崩溃论",美动用武力迫朝弃核的"窗口期"也基本关闭。特朗普奉行对朝新一轮"战略忍耐"有可能打开国际社会"默认"朝鲜实际拥核国身份的窗口,一定程度上有助于缓和朝鲜半岛紧张局势;也可能诱导日、韩采取核"跟进"政策,致使东北亚出现新一波核扩散浪潮。如果是前一种态势,则朝鲜半岛及东北亚有望进入一个相对稳定时期;如果是后一种态势,则朝鲜半岛、东北亚及中国周边环境有可能更加动荡、复杂,甚至进入一个新的严峻时期。中国应认清特朗普政府对朝"新战略忍耐"的政策本质与特点以及其中所包含的复杂挑战与机遇,力推重启"六方会谈",力促朝核问题相关方达成以"双轨并进""双暂停"及以朝鲜"冻核"换取美韩放松对朝制裁等为内容的国际妥协,为实现朝鲜半岛及东北亚的和平与稳定创造条件,尤其要谨防东北亚出现新一波核扩散浪潮。     

冷战后朝鲜半岛局势演变的基本特征

2008年以来的朝鲜半岛局势,为总结归纳冷战后20多年来朝鲜半岛局势演变的基本特征提供了重要的事实依据。冷战后朝鲜半岛局势,实为由六大类问题构成的所谓"朝鲜半岛问题"的综合性表现。其中,有关朝鲜半岛南北关系的问题,对于冷战后朝鲜半岛局势的演变具有首要的意义。朝鲜半岛南北双方和周边大国构成的国际关系系统具有内在的结构性联系。因而,这些国家周期性的国内政治变化和政策调整,以及对朝鲜半岛的长远战略目标和诉求,使得冷战后朝鲜半岛局势演变表现出周期性和连锁性特征。尽管2013年朝鲜进行了第三次核试验,但由于朝鲜半岛问题的基本内容没有发生根本变化,朝鲜半岛局势没有发生根本变化。未来两到三年内,冷战后朝鲜半岛局势演变的基本特征仍将继续显现。     

后冷战时代朝鲜国家战略论析

朝鲜国家战略的一举一动牵引着朝鲜半岛乃至东北亚时局的运动方向。朝鲜国家战略主要由国家生存战略、国家发展战略、国家统一战略三个部分构成,其指导原则是"政治上自主、经济上自立、国防上自卫、统一上自决"。坚持"先军政治"和"强盛大国"的路线方针,确保国家生存、促进国家发展、实现国家统一是朝鲜国家战略的鲜明主题和现实任务。其中,国家生存对于朝鲜有着特别重要的含义。维护政治自主尤其是政权安全乃是朝鲜外交战略和国防战略的首要任务。     

Flawed Mediation and a Compelling Mission: Chinese Diplomacy in the Six-Party Talks to Denuclearise North Korea

This paper examines China’s role in the Six-Party Talks, a multilateral initiative with the aim of denuclearising North Korea. As North Korea’s behaviour has become increasingly provocative, evidenced by the Cheonan and Yeonpyeong Incidents and the newly unveiled uranium enrichment plant at Yeonbyon, China’s indecision in dealing with the deteriorating situation has dramatically undermined Beijing’s ability to continue successfully to play the leading mediator role. Yet if China fails to take decisive action now, the consequences could be dire. Further deterioration in North Korea’s behaviour could trigger a nuclear arms race, severely hamper regional economic development and even create a geopolitical split in East Asia, leading to a confrontation between the US, South Korea and Japan acting together on one side, and China, Russia and North Korea aligned on the other. The factors that have prevented China from making further progress in the diplomatic process are many and various and this paper will reveal the complexity of the North Korean issue for China. Foreign academics and policy makers have tended to attribute China’s indecision over North Korea to China putting its own security interests first. But this is far too simplistic a picture of the complex relationship that China has with North Korea. There are a host of factors at work that need to be taken into account to understand the present impasse in the diplomatic process. These factors include China’s emotional ties to North Korea and empathy with its position as the weakest party in the Talks, the conflicting attitudes within the Chinese government itself towards the North, and the competing interests and lack of trust between the different stakeholders. It seems that for the foreseeable future, the North Korean issue will continue to plague Chinese foreign policy until all the parties involved act as a collaborative body to reach a consensus on how to resolve the situation.     

Future of North Korea at Dead End

Since Chairman Kim Jong-il's reported stroke in August 2008, the stability or instability of the North Korean system has come under the spotlight. North Korea's one-man ruling communist and state-planned economic system will constantly come under pressure at home and abroad for change. For now, North Korea withstands the pressure for change with a strong state mechanism. If Pyongyang continues to allow its systemic rigidity to hinder opportunities for adjustment and change, then the deepening internal contradictions, the people's growing discontent, and increasing discord with the external environment may push the North Korean system to a critical breaking point. As the uncertainties shrouding the North Korean regime and system steadily increase, it has become urgent to accurately analyze and assess the present and the future of North Korea. While preparing for an uncertain future of North Korea, it is also necessary that the members of the Six-Party Talks exercise more efforts to generate genuine and positive changes in North Korea.     

A Conceptual Analysis of the Six-Party Talks: Building Peace through Security Assurances

Abstract

Dissuading proliferators from developing nuclear weapons entails application of the global nonproliferation norm. Insomuch as proliferators' motivations to develop nuclear weapons are embedded in regional security concerns, security assurances taken for nuclear disarmament would include measures addressing these regional security concerns. Such measures are compatible with the need not to motivate other proliferators to develop nuclear weapons. The September 2005 Joint Statement of the Six-Party Talks incorporated a pledge to build a peace regime on the Korean Peninsula, which demonstrated the link between the regional undertakings and North Korea's denuclearization process. North Korea's nuclear test is no doubt a deviation from the document and the international community must retain collective sanctions. However, building a peace regime remains an effective means for defusing the nuclear standoff.     

Safety and Security in the Malacca Straits: The Limits of Collaboration

Abstract

This paper traces the development of the Six-Party process through to the joint statement by the parties on September 19, 2005, considers the subsequent decision by North Korea to stage a nuclear test in the context of the apparent stasis of the process, and then reviews the international condemnation that was the result of those tests. North Korea's decision to return to the talks is then discussed in light of the policy issues that must be solved if the September 19 principles can be realized in practice.     

习近平主席访韩成果、意义、局限及韩中关系中的战略课题——为促进韩中外交可持续发展的几点建议

中国国家主席习近平主席2014年7月3日对韩国进行国事访问,并与韩国总统朴槿惠举行了会谈,确认了韩中两国为"成熟的战略合作伙伴"关系。通过习主席访问韩国,韩中双方在政治、军事、经济、社会、文化领域的交流与合作等方面都取得了很大成果,尤其双方为共同应对日本歪曲历史问题而进行合作达成了协议,具有重要的意义。但是,为了韩中关系更长远的发展,也得考虑朝鲜、美国、日本等国家的因素。为了韩中两国关系的持久发展,重要的是为朝鲜半岛构建和平与统一的新的蓝图。两国共同领导才是推动南北关系改善、朝鲜半岛统一和东亚地区和平与稳定的核心轴。为了实现这个目标,应该尽快推进两国政府、两国学者之间的战略合作渠道和有创意性的战略性项目;还必须进行关于韩中历史问题的交流和对话,对一些历史问题进行共同研究。     

甲午启示录——朝鲜半岛篇

1894年甲午战争爆发后,朝鲜在摆脱与清王朝之间藩属关系的同时又陷入了日本侵略势力的魔掌。随着世界反法西斯战争的胜利,朝鲜终于挣脱了日本的殖民枷锁,获得了独立自主。然而,1954年日内瓦会议关于朝鲜问题的讨论无果而终,无情地宣告朝鲜半岛又进入了南北分治时代。当新的甲午年来临之际,回顾前两个甲午年朝鲜半岛的历史,总结其经验教训,将会为我们客观认识和妥善处理当前朝鲜半岛问题,避免历史悲剧的重演,提供一些有益的启示。     

中国“韩国基督教”学术研究综述

中国的韩国学研究经历了20年的发展,取得了长足进步。但是国内韩国学研究多集中在对韩国经济、政治、朝鲜半岛局势等方面,对于韩国基督教的研究成果并不丰富。本文收集了国内现有50篇研究韩国基督教的论文,依据这些文献所阐述的中心命题之不同,将它们分为六个专题进行了梳理,分别是：韩国宗教现状、韩国基督教近现代传教史、东西文明的冲突、基督教与韩国近现代社会的变迁、韩国基督教的本色化进程、基督教与韩朝政治。通过综述这些研究文献,以期明晰韩国基督教研究的系统化理论思路。     

金大中"阳光政策"的两难处境与当前的朝鲜半岛形势

由于"9.11"事件的发生,美国的军事外交战略发生了的重大变化,而布什在今年1月29日发表的"国情咨文"中又公开点名朝鲜,伊拉克,伊朗为"邪恶轴心",从此朝鲜半岛的形势开始震荡起来.韩国政府和美国布什政府在朝鲜半岛问题上产生了裂痕.本文分析了金大中"阳光政策"遇到的困难和朝鲜半岛形势的症结所在以及可预见的前景.     

China and Northeast Asian regional security cooperation

Northeast Asia is a particularly complex area in the world, especially in terms of security. China advocates a new concept of security based on equality, mutual benefits, consultation and cooperation. China is making great efforts to reduce regional hot issues and lower regional tensions under the conditions that a regional security framework has not been completely established. In recent years, China has actively participated in regional security cooperation and promoted the construction of a security institution. The Six-Party Talks are of great significance not only for resolving the nuclear issue on the Korean peninsula, but also for forming a relatively formal framework of security organization. Among the various East Asian security cooperative relationships, that of China–Japan–Korea is critical with regard to East Asian stability. At the same time, however, China should face and deal with some problems concerning the promotion of Northeast Asian security cooperation such as how to regard the presence of US–Japan and US–Korean military alliance, let Korea play the dominating role in Northeast Asian security cooperation and eliminate the Cold War mentality.