EDITORS LETTER

Identity theft has become one of the most ubiquitous crimes in the USA with estimates of the number of households being victimized annually ranging between 5% and 25%, resulting in direct losses totaling hundreds of billions of dollars over the past few years. Government efforts to combat identity theft have included legislation criminalizing and increasing penalties as well as regulatory efforts designed to protect individual identifying information held by financial and other business organizations. At the same time, individuals are taking their own preventive actions and purchasing private protection such as credit monitoring and identity theft insurance services. We use data from a large sample of residents from four states (Illinois, Louisiana, Pennsylvania, and Washington) in order to assess the public's willingness to pay (WTP) for a government program designed to reduce identify theft under two separate conditions, one promising a 25% reduction in identity theft and the other promising a 75% reduction in identity theft. Results indicate that: (1) between 40% and 66% of the public is willing to pay an additional tax for identity theft prevention, more so when the promise of a reduction is highest (75% compared to 25%) with an average WTP of $87, and (2) WTP is highest among individuals who carry many credit cards, who subscribe to an identity theft protection service, and who take active steps in preventing fraud by shredding bills and paying with cash, but is lowest among individuals who believe that taxes are too high. Converted into a “per crime” cost and combined with the portion of identity theft costs that are borne directly by business, we estimate the average cost per identity theft to range from approximately $2,800 to $5,100.     

FUNDING COMMUNITY POLICING TO REDUCE CRIME: HAVE COPS GRANTS MADE A DIFFERENCE?*

Research Summary: This research examines how funding from the U.S. Department of Justice, Office of Community Oriented Policing Services (COPS), has affected violent and property crime rates in the United States from 1995 to 1999. Drawing on six years of panel data, we examine the effects of three types of awards made by COPS to 6,100 law enforcement agencies serving more than 145 million citizens. We estimate their impact on crime reduction over time in jurisdictions receiving funding and controlling for baseline levels of crime, socioeconomic characteristics, city size, and population diversity and mobility. Our analyses suggest that COPS hiring and innovative grant programs have resulted in significant reductions in local crime rates in cities with populations greater than 10,000 for both violent and nonviolent offenses. Multivariate analysis shows that in cities with populations greater than 10,000, an increase in one dollar of hiring grant funding per resident contributed to a corresponding decline of 5.26 violent crimes and 21.63 property crimes per 100,000 residents. Similarly, an increase in one dollar of innovative grant funding per resident has contributed to a decline of 12.93 violent crimes and 45.53 property crimes per 100,000 persons. In addition, the findings suggest that COPS grants have had no significant negative effect on violent and property crime rates in cities with less than 10,000 population. Policy Implications: The findings of this study imply that COPS program funding to medium‐ and large‐size cities has been an effective force in reducing both violent and property crime. Federal government grants made directly to law enforcement agencies to hire additional officers and promote innovations may be an effective way to reduce crime on a national scale.     

The Price of Justice: New National and State-Level Estimates of the Judicial and Legal Costs of Crime to Taxpayers

Programs that prevent crime cost money. In order to efficiently allocate these limited funds, we need to know how much people benefit from crime prevention. While there are some comprehensive estimates of the cost of (or benefits of avoiding) crime to victims and to society at large, we have very limited crime-specific information on the legal system resources that would be freed up for other purposes across states. Using a Monte Carlo simulation approach to take into account uncertainty in the data, this study finds the national average costs to taxpayers for judicial/legal services per reported crime are likely around the following (in 2010 dollars): $22,000–$44,000 (homicide), $2000–$5000 (rape and sexual assault), $600–$1300 (robbery), $800–$2100 (aggravated assault), $200–$600 (burglary), $300–$600 (larceny/theft), and $200–$400 (motor vehicle theft). At a state-level, the costs of crime are 50 % to 70 % more or less than these national averages depending on the crime type and state. These estimates can be used to understand the level of resources spent per crime and the potential legal resources freed up for a change in reported crime rates; they are not a measure of waste or efficiency, but it is hoped this study contributes to this debate.     

Analysis of crime control strategies

An important problem in the selection of crime control programs is the choice among broad crime control strategies. This paper presents a Markov approach to the study of one important aspect of the analysis of crime control strategies—the characterization of the criminal population. Results indicate that persons with previous arrest records may commit a somewhat smaller proportion of the common crimes of robbery, burglary, larceny over $50, and assault than is indicated by rearrest data.     

The Monetary Value of Saving a High-Risk Youth

Programs targeted at high-risk youth are designed to prevent high-school dropout, crime, drug abuse, and other forms of delinquency. Even if shown to be successful in reducing one or more social ill, a key policy question is whether the cost to society from that intervention program exceeds its benefits. Although the costs of intervention programs are often available, the benefits are more illusive. This paper provides estimates of the potential benefits from “saving” a high-risk youth, by estimating the lifetime costs associated with the typical career criminal, drug abuser, and high-school dropout. In the absence of controlled experimental data on the number of career criminals averted, one can ask the reverse question—How many career criminals must be prevented before the program “pays for itself?” Based on a 2% discount rate, the typical career criminal causes $1.3–$1.5 million in external costs; a heavy drug user, $370,000 to $970,000; and a high-school dropout, $243,000 to $388,000. Eliminating duplication between crimes committed by individuals who are both heavy drug users and career criminals results in an overall estimate of the “monetary value of saving a high-risk youth” of $1.7 to $2.3 million.     

EXAMINING THE GENERALITY OF THE UNEMPLOYMENT–CRIME ASSOCIATION

This article examines whether the relationship between unemployment and criminal offending depends on the type of crime analyzed. We rely on fixed‐effects regression models to assess the association between changes in unemployment status and changes in violent crime, property crime, and driving under the influence (DUI) over a 6‐year period. We also examine whether the type of unemployment benefit received moderates the link to criminal behavior. We find significantly positive effects of unemployment on property crime but not on other types of crime. Our estimates also suggest that unemployed young males commit less crime while participating in active labor market programs when compared with periods during which they receive standard unemployment benefits.     

Victim survey research: Implications for criminal justice planning

The historic use of offense reports by police agencies for decision making is examined in the light of another data source — victim surveys. Survey information data can be used to: (1) more reliably estimate the extent and distribution of crime in a community; (2) evaluate the effectiveness of innovative programs; (3) develop police-sponsored public education programs; (4) describe the characteristics of victims and high crime areas; (5) sensitize police to the needs of the victim; and (6) develop police training programs that include dealing with the victim.     

THE IMPACT OF ORDER‐MAINTENANCE POLICING ON NEW YORK CITY HOMICIDE AND ROBBERY RATES: 1988‐2001*

Local officials and national observers have attributed the New York City drop in violent crime during the 1990s to the aggressive enforcement of public order, but relevant research is limited and yields contrasting conclusions regarding the effects of order‐maintenance policing (OMP) on violent crime trends in New York City. The current study investigates the effects of order‐maintenance arrests on precinct‐level robbery and homicide trends in New York City with more reliable crime and arrest data, longer time series, and more extensive controls for other influences than used in prior research. We find statistically significant but small crime‐reduction effects of OMP and conclude that the impact of aggressive order enforcement on the reduction in homicide and robbery rates in New York City during the 1990s was modest at best.     

Cost-benefit analysis of reducing crime through electronic monitoring of parolees and probationers

Objective

The objective of this study was to estimate the benefits and costs of using electronic monitoring (EM) and home detention to reduce crime committed by parolees and probationers.

Method

Data from a national survey of state prison inmates was adjusted and used to estimate the number of crimes that would have been committed by all parolees and probationers over the course of one year in the absence of EM and home detention. The data were analyzed in combination with existing analyses of the effectiveness and costs of EM and home detention and the economic costs of crime to estimate the benefit-cost ratio of nationwide implementation of EM and home detention with all parolees and probationers.

Results

EM plus home detention could avert an estimated 781,383 crimes every year. The social value of the annual reduction in crime is $481.1 billion. Society would gain $12.70 for every dollar expended on the proposed intervention.

Conclusion

EM plus home detention could be an effective deterrent to crime and could have enormous social benefits, especially if it is applied early and saves what would otherwise be habitual offenders from a life of crime.     

New Evidence on the Monetary Value of Saving a High Risk Youth

There is growing interest in crime prevention through early youth interventions; yet, the standard United States response to the crime problem, particularly among juveniles, has been to increase the use and resource allocation allotted toward punishment and incapacitation and away from prevention and treatment. At the same time, longitudinal studies of delinquency and crime have repeatedly documented a strong link between past and future behavior and have identified a small subset of offenders who commit a large share of criminal offenses. These findings suggest that if these offenders can be identified early and correctly and provided with prevention and treatment resources early in the life course, their criminal activity may be curtailed. While researchers have studied these offenders in great detail, little attention has been paid to the costs they exert on society. This paper provides estimates of the cost of crime imposed on society by high risk youth. Our approach follows and builds upon the early framework and basic methodology developed by Cohen (J Quant Criminol 14: 5–33, 1998), by using new estimates of the costs of individual crimes, ones that are more comprehensive and that significantly increased the monetary cost per crime. We also use new estimates on the underlying offending rate for high risk juvenile offenders. We estimate the present value of saving a 14-year-old high risk juvenile from a life of crime to range from $2.6 to $5.3 million. Similarly, saving a high risk youth at birth would save society between $2.6 and $4.4 million.

SELF‐CONTROL THROUGH EMERGING ADULTHOOD: INSTABILITY,MULTIDIMENSIONALITY, AND CRIMINOLOGICAL SIGNIFICANCE

This study assesses self‐control theory's stability postulate. We advance research on self‐control stability in three ways. First, we extend the study of stability beyond high school, estimating GBTMs of self‐control from ages 10 to 25. Second, drawing on advances in developmental psychology and social neuroscience, especially the dual systems model of risk taking, we investigate whether two distinct personality traits—impulsivity and sensation seeking—often conflated in measures of self‐control, exhibit divergent developmental patterns. Finding that they do, we estimate multitrajectory models to identify latent classes of co‐occurring developmental patterns. We supplement GBTM stability analyses with hierarchical linear models and reliable variance estimates. Lastly, using fixed effects models, we explore whether the observed within‐individual changes are associated with changes in crime net of overall age trends. These ideas are tested using five waves of data from the Family and Community Health Study. Results suggest that self‐control is unstable, that distinct patterns of development exist for impulsivity and sensation seeking, and that these changes are uniquely consequential for crime. We conclude by comparing our findings with extant research and discussing the implications for self‐control theory.     

Prison population growth and crime reduction

The impact of state prison populations on crime is typically estimated by applying the lambda, the individual crime rate, of prisoners or arrestees. We outline the problems with this approach, attempt to reanalyze the widely divergent lambdas derived in past research, and make adjustments necessary to use lambdas for estimating the incapacitation impact. The result is an uncertain estimate of 16 to 25 index crimes averted per year per each additional prisoner. We argue that regression analysis can provide a better estimate of the impact of prison population growth. Applying the Granger test to pooled state data over 19 years, we found that prison population growth leads to lower crime rates but that crime rate changes have little or no short-term impact on prison population growth. Next we regressed crime rates on prison population and conclude that, on average, at least 17 index crimes are averted per additional prisoner. The impact is limited mainly to property crime.     

Prevention,Crime Control or Cash? Public Preferences Towards Criminal Justice Spending Priorities

We propose and test a new methodology to assess the public’s criminal justice spending priorities. Respondents are asked to trade‐off alternative crime prevention and control policies as well as a potential tax rebate. In a nationally representative sample, we found overwhelming support for increased spending on youth prevention, drug treatment for nonviolent offenders, and police. However, the median respondent would not allocate any new money to building more prisons and would not request a tax rebate if the money were spent on youth prevention, drug treatment, or police. At the margin, we estimate the public would receive $3.07 in perceived value by spending $1.00 on youth prevention; $1.86 in value for every dollar spent on drug treatment; and $1.76 for a dollar spent on police. However, the public would not spend more on prisons, deriving only 71 cents in value for every tax dollar spent.     

THE EFFECTS OF LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT BLOCK GRANTS ON SERIOUS CRIME*

Research Summary The Local Law Enforcement Block Grants (LLEBG) Program was second only to the Community‐Oriented Policing Services (COPS) Program in its funding levels. Some $3 billion was dispensed to local jurisdictions to reduce crime and improve public safety; yet the effects of LLEBG funding on crime have been all but ignored. Accordingly, panel data from more than 5,000 cities covering a 12‐year period (1990–2001) were collected, and index crime rates were regressed on LLEBG funding and appropriate demographic controls. Additional controls for police levels and other federal grants were also introduced, proper checks for endogeneity of grants (and police levels) were performed, and the models were subjected to an array of robustness checks. A consistent message emerged: LLEBG Program funding was associated with significant reductions in serious crime. Policy Implications Although LLEBG funding seemed to reduce serious crime, the results also revealed that the decrease did not occur through the hiring of additional police officers, even though many funds were used for that purpose. Other mechanisms were thus at work, but the data did not provide insights into what these mechanisms were. In any case, every $1 in LLEBG funding per capita was associated with approximately 59 fewer index crimes per 100,000 people. When combined with the findings from recent studies of the effects of community policing grants on crime, this study suggests additional federal support for local law‐enforcement agencies should be considered.     

The Impact of the Boston Marathon Bombings on Public Willingness to Cooperate with Police

While a key to law enforcement success is the willingness of the public to cooperate with police, we have limited understanding of how terrorist attacks affect this public readiness. Prior research suggests that terrorist attacks might increase citizen cooperation with police through both prevention efforts and rally effects. We test these assertions with three nationally representative surveys on respondents’ willingness to help police combat terrorism: one before the Boston Marathon bombings and two after. As predicted, public willingness to report suspicious behavior to police increases significantly following the bombings and there is evidence that these increases generalize to ordinary crime. We also find that knowledge of key counter terrorism programs increases after the bombings, effects are somewhat stronger for the New England area than other regions, and the strength of the results are greatly diminished 16 months after the attacks. Conclusions are similar for both panel and cross-sectional analyses.     

The Andrews’ principles of risk, needs, and responsivity as applied in drug treatment programs: meta-analysis of crime and drug use outcomes

Objectives

The purpose of the present meta-analysis was to answer the question: Can the Andrews principles of risk, needs, and responsivity, originally developed for programs that treat offenders, be extended to programs that treat drug abusers?

Methods

Drawing from a dataset that included 243 independent comparisons, we conducted random-effects meta-regression and ANOVA-analog meta-analyses to test the Andrews principles by averaging crime and drug use outcomes over a diverse set of programs for drug abuse problems.

Results

For crime outcomes, in the meta-regressions, the point estimates for each of the principles were substantial, consistent with previous studies of the Andrews principles. There was also a substantial point estimate for programs exhibiting a greater number of the principles. However, almost all the 95 % confidence intervals included the zero point. For drug use outcomes, in the meta-regressions, the point estimates for each of the principles was approximately zero; however, the point estimate for programs exhibiting a greater number of the principles was somewhat positive. All the estimates for the drug use principles had confidence intervals that included the zero point.

Conclusions

This study supports previous findings from primary research studies targeting the Andrews principles that those principles are effective in reducing crime outcomes, here in meta-analytic research focused on drug treatment programs. By contrast, programs that follow the principles appear to have very little effect on drug use outcomes. Primary research studies that experimentally test the Andrews principles in drug treatment programs are recommended.     

Legitimacy invariance and campus crime: the impact of campus police legitimacy in different reporting contexts

ABSTRACT

This paper examines whether campus police legitimacy relevance varies across different crime contexts. 519 respondents from 31 undergraduate sections at a public university rated campus police legitimacy as well as their willingness to report a campus crime to the public safety department. Students were assigned to different crime vignettes, involving experimental manipulation of crime type: petty theft, indecent exposure, aggravated assault, and gun possession on a college campus. Results indicate general support for the procedural justice model, specifically the invariance of the influence of legitimacy on reporting. This paper argues for increased specificity in measurement of cooperation beyond general willingness to assist, or a single crime context.     

ROLE OF THE STREET NETWORK IN BURGLARS' SPATIAL DECISION‐MAKING*

Explaining why crime is spatially concentrated has been a central theme of much criminological research. Although various theories focus on neighborhood social processes, environmental criminology asserts that the physical environment plays a central role by shaping people's activity patterns and the opportunities for crime. Here, we test theoretical expectations regarding the role of the road network in shaping the spatial distribution of crime and, in contrast to prior research, disentangle how it might influence offender awareness of criminal opportunities and the supply of ambient guardianship. With a mixed logit (discrete choice) model, we use data regarding (N = 459) residential burglaries (for the first time) to model offender spatial decision‐making at the street segment level. Novel graph theory metrics are developed to estimate offender awareness of street segments and to estimate levels of ambient guardianship, distinguishing between local and nonlocal guardianship. As predicted by crime pattern theory, novel metrics concerning offender familiarity and effort were significant predictors of residential burglary location choices. And, in line with Newman's (1972) concept of defensible space, nonlocal (local) pedestrian traffic was found to be associated with an increase (decrease) in burglary risk. Our findings also demonstrate that “taste” preferences vary across offenders, which presents a challenge for future research to explain.     

THE ROLE OF TURNING POINTS IN ESTABLISHING BASELINE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN PEOPLE IN DEVELOPMENTAL AND LIFE‐COURSE CRIMINOLOGY

Turning points, between‐person differences, and within‐person changes have all been linked to desistance from crime. Nevertheless, the means through which between‐person differences are frequently captured in life‐course criminology makes them intertwined with, and perhaps confounded by, turning points in life. We propose that a new way of capturing the between‐person effect—the baseline between‐person difference—could benefit theoretically informed tests of developmental and life‐course issues in criminology. Because they occur at one time point immediately preceding a turning point in life, we demonstrate that baseline between‐person differences establish meaningful theoretical connections to behavior and the way people change over time. By using panel data from the Serious and Violent Offender Reentry Initiative, we estimate models capturing within‐person change and baseline between‐person differences in social bonds (family support) and differential association (peer criminality) at the time of release from prison. The results demonstrate that baseline levels of family support protect people from postrelease substance use but not from crime. Baseline between‐person differences and within‐person changes in peer criminality, however, are robustly related to crime and substance use. Collectively, baseline between‐person differences seem critical for behavior and within‐person change over time, and the results carry implications for reentry‐based policy as well as for theory testing in developmental criminology more broadly.     

Victims’ perceptions of the police response as a predictor of victim cooperation in the Netherlands: a prospective analysis

The current study prospectively explores whether crime victims’ willingness to cooperate with the police is predicted by victims’ perceptions of police officers’ behaviour with regard to their case through their perceptions of police legitimacy. Structural equation modelling was used to examine the interrelationships between the study variables while controlling for baseline values among a sample of 201 crime victims in the Netherlands. Results indicate that victims’ perceptions of procedural justice and police performance were predictive of both indicators of perceived police legitimacy (i.e. obligation to obey the law and trust in the police). Moreover, victims’ willingness to cooperate with the police was indirectly predicted by victims’ perceptions of procedural justice and police performance, through their perceptions of obligation to obey the law. These findings suggest that police officers may play an important role in stimulating victims’ willingness to cooperate with the police by treating victims fairly and by taking investigative actions to solve the crime.