Guardianship and residential burglary

Guardianship is a key element in the routine activities approach to understanding crime. This paper examines the effects of guardianship on residential burglary. Several features distinguish these analyses from prior work: 1) both primary and proxy guardianship are included: 2) a more direct indicator of primary guardianship is used; and 3) the effects of guardianship on both the initial risk of burglary and the probability that the crime will be completed are examined. The findings suggest that the effects of guardianship on residential burglary may have been underestimated in prior research. The analyses also show that a complete understanding of the effects of guardianship—especially proxy guardianship—on the entire burglary process will require simultaneous consideration of victimization and offending perspectives.     

STREET NETWORK STRUCTURE AND CRIME RISK: AN AGENT‐BASED INVESTIGATION OF THE ENCOUNTER AND ENCLOSURE HYPOTHESES

Street networks shape day‐to‐day activities in complex ways, dictating where, when, and in what contexts potential victims, offenders, and crime preventers interact with one another. Identifying generalizable principles of such influence offers considerable utility to theorists, policy makers, and practitioners. Unfortunately, key difficulties associated with the observation of these interactions, and control of the settings within which they take place, limit traditional empirical approaches that aim to uncover mechanisms linking street network structure with crime risk. By drawing on parallel advances in the formal analyses of street networks and the computational modeling of crime events interactions, we present a theoretically informed and empirically validated agent‐based model of residential burglary that permits investigation of the relationship between street network structure and crime commission and prevention through guardianship. Through the use of this model, we explore the validity of competing theoretical accounts of street network permeability and crime risk—the encounter (eyes on the street) and enclosure (defensible space) hypotheses. The results of our analyses provide support for both hypotheses, but in doing so, they reveal that the relationship between street network permeability and crime is likely nonlinear. We discuss the ramifications of these findings for both criminological theory and crime prevention practice.     

Unemployment,Guardianship, and Weekday Residential Burglary

The absence of a consistent positive effect of the unemployment rate on the crime rate is perplexing, but it may be partly due to the countervailing effect of guardianship. Using weekly state-level data and a pooled cross-sectional time-series research design, we investigate whether the unemployment rate influences residential burglary. This study contributes to the extant literature by distinguishing between weekday residential burglaries, or those burglaries that occur between the hours of 6 am to 6 pm on weekdays, from weeknight/weekend burglaries. If unemployment increases guardianship because previously employed individuals are now at home during the workday protecting their possessions, the expectation is that the unemployment rate will have an instantaneous negative effect on residential burglaries that transpire during normal working hours. Results buttress the logic associated with the guardianship thesis in that a rise in the unemployment rate only engenders a decrease in weekday residential burglaries.     

Using data on offender mobility in ecological research

This article presents some findings on neighborhood structure, police recorded crime, and offender mobility for the city of Utrecht, the Netherlands. The highest crime rates were found in the inner-city neighborhoods. The findings further show that the occurrence of different types of petty crime in residential neighborhoods is associated with different neighborhood characteristics. It was found that offenders reside predominantly in lower-social status neighborhoods. Using data on offender mobility it is shown that violent crime and vandalism are the more locally committed crimes, as compared to residential burglary and other property crime. Finally, it is proposed that data on offender mobility can be used to gain more insight into the link between certain neighborhood characteristics and crime.     

The linking of burglary crimes using offender behaviour: Testing research cross‐nationally and exploring methodology

Purpose. The current study tests whether existing behavioural case linkage findings from the United Kingdom (UK) will replicate abroad with a sample of residential burglaries committed in Finland. In addition, a previously discussed methodological issue is empirically explored. Methods. Seven measures of behavioural similarity, geographical proximity, and temporal proximity are calculated for pairs of burglary crimes committed by 117 serial burglars in Finland. The ability of these seven measures to distinguish between pairs of crimes committed by the same offender (linked pairs) and different offenders (unlinked pairs) is tested using logistic regression and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. Two methodologies for forming the unlinked pairs are compared; one representing the ‘traditional’ approach used by research and, the other, a new approach that represents a potentially more realistic and statistically sound approach to testing case linkage. Results. A wider range of offender behaviours were able to distinguish between linked and unlinked crime pairs in the current Finnish sample than in previous UK‐based research. The most successful features were the kilometre‐distance between crimes (the intercrime distance), the number of days separating offences (temporal proximity), and a combination of target, entry, internal, and property behaviours (the combined domain). There were no statistically significant differences between the two methodological approaches. Conclusions. The current findings demonstrate that a wider range of offender behaviours can be used to discriminate between linked and unlinked residential burglary crimes committed in Finland than in the UK. The use of a more realistic and statistically sound methodology does not lead to substantial changes in case linkage findings.     

Permeability and Burglary Risk: Are Cul-de-Sacs Safer?

That crime is concentrated in space is now accepted as commonplace. Explanations for why it clusters at particular locations are various reflecting the range of factors which are held to influence crime placement. In this article, we focus on the role of the permeability of the street network on the location of crime. We first review the research conducted hitherto, summarising the different approaches to analysis and the findings that have so far emerged. Then we present original analyses conducted at the street segment level to examine the issues at hand. In contrast to much of the prior research, in this study we examine the patterns for a large study area in which there is considerable variation in street network configuration. Moreover, and in contrast to all of the previous research, the approach to analysis takes into account the multi-level structure of the data analysed. The findings demonstrate that increased permeability is associated with elevated burglary risk, that burglary risk is lower on cul-de-sacs (particularly those that are sinuous in nature), and that the risk of burglary is higher on more major roads and those street segments that are connected to them. In the conclusion of the paper we outline an agenda for future research.     

Behavioural case linkage with solved and unsolved crimes

Offender behaviour is used to distinguish between crimes committed by the same person (linked crimes) and crimes committed by different people (unlinked crimes) through behavioural case linkage. There is growing evidence to support the use of behavioural case linkage by investigative organisations such as the police, but this research is typically limited to samples of solved crime that do not reflect how this procedure is used in real life. The current paper extends previous research by testing the potential for behavioural case linkage in a sample containing both solved and unsolved crimes. Discrimination accuracy is examined across crime categories (e.g. a crime pair containing a car theft and a residential burglary), across crime types (e.g. a crime pair containing a residential burglary and a commercial burglary), and within crime types (e.g. a crime pair containing two residential burglaries) using the number of kilometres (intercrime distance) and the number of days (temporal proximity) between offences to distinguish between linked and unlinked crimes. The intercrime distance and/or the temporal proximity were able to achieve statistically significant levels of discrimination accuracy across crime categories, across crime types, and within crime types as measured by Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) analysis. This suggests that behavioural case linkage can be used to assist the investigation, detection and prosecution of prolific and versatile serial offenders.     

Crime Theory Evaluation Using Simulation Models of Residential Burglary

This paper provides new insights on the study of crime modeling through the development of a hybrid cellular automaton (CA) and Multi-agent System (MAS) simulation model that is able to combine components of multiple criminological theories to forecast the locations of residential burglary targets: journey to crime (JTC), social disorganization (SD) theory, and routine activity (RA) theory. In order to combine individual factors from each theory into a unified model, Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) was employed for hierarchical parameter selection. The model is then evaluated using data on offenders obtained from the Dallas Police Department to examine how different crime theories perform in the prediction of residential burglary. Compared to the SD- and RA-weighted models, the JTC-weighted model performed the best when comparisons were made to actual burglary locations. The findings demonstrate that the simulation models of crime provide test beds for research into the explanatory power of various crime theories.     

Using Dasymetric Mapping for Spatially Aggregated Crime Data

With availability of crime data to the public via sources such as the Uniform Crime Reports, and increasing geographic information system (GIS) capabilities for mapping crime, macro-level studies of crime have advanced knowledge of how crime is distributed over large areas. Choropleth mapping, commonly used in macro-level studies, visually displays data by assigning the number of crimes or crime rate to the corresponding spatial unit and using different shades or textures for each value or classified values creating a thematic map. However, crime incidents or crime rates are not dispersed evenly within spatial units, and choropleth mapping masks the underlying nuances of the distribution. Artificial boundaries, along with variations in the size of the unit of analysis, can further distort the true distribution of crime. Dasymetric mapping provides a methodology for refining the distribution of crime within a spatial unit. It does so by using additional data, such as land use and census data, to provide a realistic estimate of how crime may be distributed within the units of analysis. Dasymetric mapping is also useful in creating density maps to reveal clusters of crime normally masked with choropleth maps. This paper will show how dasymetric mapping can estimate the spatial distribution of aggregate level residential burglary within political boundaries in Massachusetts based on land use and housing data.     

GENERATIVE EXPLANATIONS OF CRIME: USING SIMULATION TO TEST CRIMINOLOGICAL THEORY*

This study demonstrates that computational modeling and, in particular, agent‐based modeling (ABM) offers a viable compatriot to traditional experimental methodologies for criminology scholars. ABM can be used as a means to operationalize and test hypothetical mechanisms that offer a potential explanation for commonly observed criminological phenomena. This study tests whether the hypothesized mechanisms of environmental criminology are sufficient to produce several commonly observed characteristics of crime. We present an ABM of residential burglary, simulating a world inhabited by potential targets and offenders who behave according to the theoretical propositions of environmental criminology. A series of simulated experiments examining the impact of these mechanisms on patterns of offending are performed. The outputs of these simulations then are compared with several well‐established findings derived from empirical studies of residential burglary, including the spatial concentration of crime, repeat victimization, and the journey to crime curve. The results from this research demonstrate that the propositions of the routine activity approach, rational choice perspective, and crime pattern theory provide a viable generative explanation for several independent characteristics of crime.     

The value of DNA material recovered from crime scenes

Abstract:  DNA material is now collected routinely from crime scenes for a wide range of offenses and its timely processing is acknowledged as a key element to its success in solving crime. An analysis of the processing of approximately 1500 samples of DNA material recovered from the property crime offenses of residential burglary, commercial burglary, and theft of motor vehicle in Northamptonshire, U.K. during 2006 identified saliva and cigarette ends as the main sources of DNA recovered (approximately 63% of samples) with blood, cellular DNA, and chewing gum accounting for the remainder. The conversion of these DNA samples into DNA profiles and then into matches with offender profiles held on the U.K. National DNA database is considered in terms of the ease with which Crime Scene Examiners can recover DNA rich samples of different sources, the location of the DNA at the crime scene, and its mobility. A logistical regression of the DNA material recovered has revealed a number of predictors, other than timeliness, that greatly influence its conversion into a DNA profile. The most significant predictor was found to be Crime Scene Examiner accreditation with offense type and DNA sample condition also being relevant. A similar logistical regression of DNA samples profiled that produced a match with an offender on the U.K. National DNA database showed no significance with any of the predictors considered.     

INFORMAL SURVEILLANCE AND STREET CRIME: A COMPLEX RELATIONSHIP*

The systemic crime model predicts that informal surveillance of space reduces street crime. Conversely, community decline theory posits that street crime reduces informal surveillance by increasing residents' perception of risk and fear. Moreover, functions of crime theory suggests that some types of crime may increase surveillance. Using data for 100 urban neighborhoods, the analysis examines these predictions and disentangles reciprocal effects. Baseline recursive equations indicate that informal surveillance is inversely associated with robbery/stranger assault, and that robbery/stranger assault is inversely associated with informal surveillance. In contrast, burglary rates are not affected by informal surveillance, but burglary has a positive effect on surveillance when robbery/stranger assault is controlled. Simultaneous equations indicate that robbery/stranger assault has a moderately strong inverse effect on informal surveillance, and that it is mediated by residents' perceptions of risk. When risk perception is controlled, informal surveillance has an inverse effect on robbery/stranger assault. The latter analysis also indicates that burglary increases surveillance, suggesting that some types of crime serve positive functions. The results, therefore, lend support to systemic, community decline, and functions of crime theory, and they suggest that the relationship between informal surveillance and crime is complex. Implications for community crime research are discussed.     

Sequential angulation,spatial dispersion and consistency of distance attack patterns from home in serial murder,rape and burglary

Abstract

Three related measures of spatial movement (sequential angulation, spatial dispersion and consistency of distance in attack target) were compared across three serial offence types: serial homicide (n=35), serial rape (n=41) and serial burglary (n=30). In each case, each offender had committed at least five offences. “Spatial dispersion”, defined as the extent to which an offender distributes his offences across either a focused or relatively more evenly distributed area, revealed that burglary was less evenly distributed (i.e. more focused) than rape and murder. “Sequential angulation”, defined as the degree of rotational movement around the home of the offender from one offence to the next, revealed that serial murderers have higher angulation scores than do rapists who, in turn, have higher angulation scores than burglars. Lastly, a comparison of the offender's consistency in the relative distance travelled from home to each attack site (“consistency of distance in attack target”) was relatively similar across the three groups. This was despite the comparison of different serial offence types from disparate geographical areas. The supposition that differences in dispersion and sequential angulation scores across crime types are related to the perceived risk of the crime has been confirmed. The specificity and the mobility of the targets are also discussed.     

Predicting Property Crime Risk: an Application of Risk Terrain Modeling in Vancouver,Canada

Research on the spatial dimension of crime has developed significantly over the past few decades. An important aspect of this research is the visualization of this dimension and its underlying risk across space. However, most methods of such visualization, and subsequent analyses, only consider crime data or, perhaps, a population at risk in a crime rate. Risk terrain modeling (RTM) provides an alternative to such methods and can incorporate the entire environmental backcloth, data permitting. To date, the RTM literature has dominantly focused on violent crime in the United States. In this paper, we apply RTM to property crime victimization (residential burglary) in Vancouver, Canada. We are able to show that not only does RTM have applicability in a Canadian context but provides insight into nonviolent victimization.     

Offender as Forager? A Direct Test of the Boost Account of Victimization

Recent research has demonstrated that burglary clusters in space and time, resulting in temporal changes in crime hotspot patterns. Offender foraging behavior would yield the observed pattern. The offender as forager hypothesis is tested by analyzing patterns in two types of acquisitive crime, burglary and theft from motor vehicle (TFMV). Using a technique developed to detect disease contagion confirms that both crime types cluster in space and time as predicted, but that the space–time clustering of burglary is generally independent of that for TFMV. Police detections indicate that crimes of the same type occurring closest to each other in space and time are those most likely to be cleared to the same offender(s), as predicted. The implications of the findings for crime forecasting and crime linkage are discussed.

Public perceptions of white-collar crime and punishment

Although financial losses from white-collar crime continue to exceed those of street crime, the criminal justice system has traditionally focused on the latter. Past research suggested that citizens are more likely to support punitive sanctions for street offenders than white-collar offenders. Recent corporate scandals have increased public awareness of white-collar crime, but whether public attitudes have been altered remains to be determined. Using a 2005 national sample of 402 telephone survey participants, the current study examined citizen perceptions of white-collar and street crime, as well as attitudes regarding apprehension and punishment. This research extended prior studies by also considering the influence of sociodemographic characteristics as well as perceptions of white-collar crime and punishment on the public's support for increasing resource allocation. Implications for future research and development of more effective white-collar crime control policy are discussed.     

Crime prevention and the attitude toward the criminal justice system: The effects of a multimedia campaign

This study concerns the effects of a multimedia campaign regarding residential burglary and violence on the streets in The Netherlands that can be characterised as a tell-the-truth campaign. The mass media component of the campaign consists of editorials in the regional dailies, local weeklies, and items on the regional radio station. The audience was given the opportunity to personally contact an information officer (via information meetings, “Crime Prevention Van,” or stands). The campaign led to a more positive attitude towards the criminal justice system among the general public. There was no effect on knowledge of burglary and violence, the image of local crime, risk assessment, fear of crime, outcome expectation, self-efficacy expectation, preventive behaviour, and the attitude towards crime reporting.     

New methods for examining expertise in burglars in natural and simulated environments: preliminary findings

Expertise literature in mainstream cognitive psychology is rarely applied to criminal behaviour. Yet, if closely scrutinised, examples of the characteristics of expertise can be identified in many studies examining the cognitive processes of offenders, especially regarding residential burglary. We evaluated two new methodologies that might improve our understanding of cognitive processing in offenders through empirically observing offending behaviour and decision-making in a free-responding environment. We tested hypotheses regarding expertise in burglars in a small, exploratory study observing the behaviour of ‘expert’ offenders (ex-burglars) and novices (students) in a real and in a simulated environment. Both samples undertook a mock burglary in a real house and in a simulated house on a computer. Both environments elicited notably different behaviours between the experts and the novices with experts demonstrating superior skill. This was seen in: more time spent in high value areas; fewer and more valuable items stolen; and more systematic routes taken around the environments. The findings are encouraging and provide support for the development of these observational methods to examine offender cognitive processing and behaviour.     

Space–Time Patterns of Risk: A Cross National Assessment of Residential Burglary Victimization

Using epidemiological techniques for testing disease contagion, it has recently been found that in the wake of a residential burglary, the risk to nearby homes is temporarily elevated. This paper demonstrates the ubiquity of this phenomenon by analyzing space–time patterns of burglary in 10 areas, located in five different countries. While the precise patterns vary, for all areas, houses within 200 m of a burgled home were at an elevated risk of burglary for a period of at least two weeks. For three of the five countries, differences in these patterns may partly be explained by simple differences in target density. The findings inform theories of crime concentration and offender targeting strategies, and have implications for crime forecasting and crime reduction more generally.

Value of DNA evidence in detecting crime

DNA material is now collected routinely from crime scenes for a wide range of offences and the timely processing of the DNA is seen as key to its success in investigating and detecting crime. An analysis of DNA material recovered from the volume crime offences of residential burglary, commercial burglary, and theft of motor vehicle in Northamptonshire, U.K., in 2004 has enabled the DNA to be categorized into seven sources. Further analysis using a logistical regression has revealed a number of predictors, other than timeliness, that greatly influence whether the DNA material recovered from a crime scene enables the crime to be detected. The results indicate that a number of these predictors are of statistical significance and may be just as relevant in determining whether DNA successfully detects the crime as the timeliness of the processing of the DNA material. The most significant predictor was found to be investigating officer accreditation with location, quantity, and type of DNA material at the crime scene also being relevant. Accreditation of the Crime Scene Examiner recovering the DNA material was found not to be significant. Consideration is given to where further emphasis is needed by the U.K. police service to maximize the opportunities to detect volume crime with DNA.