ECOLOGICAL NETWORKS AND URBAN CRIME: THE STRUCTURE OF SHARED ROUTINE ACTIVITY LOCATIONS AND NEIGHBORHOOD‐LEVEL INFORMAL CONTROL CAPACITY

By drawing on the work of Jacobs (1961), we hypothesize that public contact among neighborhood residents while engaged in day‐to‐day routines, captured by the aggregate network structure of shared local exposure, is consequential for crime. Neighborhoods in which residents come into contact more extensively in the course of conventional routines will exhibit higher levels of public familiarity, trust, and collective efficacy with implications for the informal social control of crime. We employ the concept of ecological (“eco‐”) networks—networks linking households within neighborhoods through shared activity locations—to formalize the notion of overlapping routines. By using microsimulations of household travel patterns to construct census tract‐level eco‐networks for Columbus, OH, we examine the hypothesis that eco‐network intensity (the probability that households tied through one location in a neighborhood eco‐network will also be tied through another visited location) is negatively associated with tract‐level crime rates (N = 192). Fitted spatial autoregressive models offer evidence that neighborhoods with higher intensity eco‐networks exhibit lower levels of violent and property crime. In contrast, a higher prevalence of nonresident visitors to a given tract is positively associated with property crime. The results of these analyses hold the potential to enrich insight into the ecological processes that shape variation in neighborhood crime.     

Permeability and Burglary Risk: Are Cul-de-Sacs Safer?

That crime is concentrated in space is now accepted as commonplace. Explanations for why it clusters at particular locations are various reflecting the range of factors which are held to influence crime placement. In this article, we focus on the role of the permeability of the street network on the location of crime. We first review the research conducted hitherto, summarising the different approaches to analysis and the findings that have so far emerged. Then we present original analyses conducted at the street segment level to examine the issues at hand. In contrast to much of the prior research, in this study we examine the patterns for a large study area in which there is considerable variation in street network configuration. Moreover, and in contrast to all of the previous research, the approach to analysis takes into account the multi-level structure of the data analysed. The findings demonstrate that increased permeability is associated with elevated burglary risk, that burglary risk is lower on cul-de-sacs (particularly those that are sinuous in nature), and that the risk of burglary is higher on more major roads and those street segments that are connected to them. In the conclusion of the paper we outline an agenda for future research.     

GIRL FRIENDS ARE BETTER: GENDER,FRIENDS, AND CRIME AMONG SCHOOL AND STREET YOUTH*

In recent years, popular media has drawn attention to “mean girls” and their negative treatment of others, particularly other females. But while the attention to girls' aggression and their mistreatment of their peers highlights understudied aspects of female behavior, it neglects the beneficial aspects of female friendship. We argue that compared to relationships with males, friendships with females provide more social control, fewer opportunities and less motivation for offending and may therefore discourage crime. Because an adolescent's gender likely influences the association between the gender of one's friends and crime, we anticipate that the association will be stronger for females than for males. The relationship is also likely affected by the context in which relationships originate; we expect that those that develop in less conventional contexts will have weaker effects on crime. We explore these hypotheses with a comparative analysis of effects of friendships on property crime in two samples of youth: those who live at home and attend school and those who are homeless and spend their days and nights on the street. Our findings support our hypotheses. The relationship between female‐dominated friendship networks and property crime is negative and significant; however, this association is strongest for school females, weaker for school males and females who live on the street, and nonsignificant for homeless males.     

DIFFERENTIAL COERCION,STREET YOUTH,AND VIOLENT CRIME*

Using a sample of 300 homeless street youths, this study examines differential coercion theory and the role that coercion and the socialpsychological deficits of anger, low self‐control, coercive modeling, coercive ideation, and control imbalances play in the generation of violent crime. Results from cross‐sectional and prospective offending models that examine the individual mediators reveal that coercion has a direct relationship with violent offending as well as a relationship that is mediated by low self‐control, anger, coercive modeling, and coercive ideation. Although control imbalances have a direct relationship with crime, they do not mediate the relationship between coercion and crime. In the cross‐sectional model that contains all the mediators, coercion, low self‐control, anger, coercive modeling, and coercive ideation are associated with crime. In the prospective model that contains all the mediators, only anger, coercive modeling, and coercive ideation remain associated with crime. Results are discussed regarding future theory development and policy implications.     

“MIGHT NOT BE A TOMORROW”: A MULTIMETHODS APPROACH TO ANTICIPATED EARLY DEATH AND YOUTH CRIME*

Several researchers point to the anticipation of early death, or a sense of “futurelessness,” as a contributing factor to youth crime. It is argued that young people who perceive a high probability of early death may have little reason to delay gratification for the promise of future benefits, as the future itself is discounted. Consequently, these young people tend to pursue high‐risk behaviors associated with immediate rewards, which include crime and violence. Although existing studies lend support to these arguments and show a statistical relationship between anticipated early death and youth crime, this support remains tentative. Moreover, several questions remain regarding the interpretation of this relationship, the meanings that offenders attach to the prospect of early death, and the cognitive processes that link anticipated early death to youth crime. In this article, we address the limitations of previous studies using a multimethods approach, which involves the analyses of national survey data and in‐depth interviews with active street offenders.     

INFORMAL SURVEILLANCE AND STREET CRIME: A COMPLEX RELATIONSHIP*

The systemic crime model predicts that informal surveillance of space reduces street crime. Conversely, community decline theory posits that street crime reduces informal surveillance by increasing residents' perception of risk and fear. Moreover, functions of crime theory suggests that some types of crime may increase surveillance. Using data for 100 urban neighborhoods, the analysis examines these predictions and disentangles reciprocal effects. Baseline recursive equations indicate that informal surveillance is inversely associated with robbery/stranger assault, and that robbery/stranger assault is inversely associated with informal surveillance. In contrast, burglary rates are not affected by informal surveillance, but burglary has a positive effect on surveillance when robbery/stranger assault is controlled. Simultaneous equations indicate that robbery/stranger assault has a moderately strong inverse effect on informal surveillance, and that it is mediated by residents' perceptions of risk. When risk perception is controlled, informal surveillance has an inverse effect on robbery/stranger assault. The latter analysis also indicates that burglary increases surveillance, suggesting that some types of crime serve positive functions. The results, therefore, lend support to systemic, community decline, and functions of crime theory, and they suggest that the relationship between informal surveillance and crime is complex. Implications for community crime research are discussed.     

RACIAL DISCRIMINATION,RACIAL SOCIALIZATION,AND CRIME OVER TIME: A SOCIAL SCHEMATIC THEORY MODEL

Recent studies evince that interpersonal racial discrimination (IRD) increases the risk of crime among African Americans and familial racial socialization fosters resilience to discrimination's criminogenic effects. Yet, studies have focused on the short‐term effects of IRD and racial socialization largely among adolescents. In this study, we seek to advance knowledge by elucidating how racialized experiences—in interactions and socialization—influence crime for African Americans over time. Elaborating Simons and Burt's (2011) social schematic theory, we trace the effects of childhood IRD and familial racial socialization on adult offending through cognitive and social pathways and their interplay. We test this life‐course SST model using data from the FACHS, a multisite study of Black youth and their families from ages 10 to 25. Consistent with the model, analyses reveal that the criminogenic consequences of childhood IRD are mediated cognitively by a criminogenic knowledge structure and socially through the nature of social relationships in concert with ongoing offending and discrimination experiences. Specifically, by increasing criminogenic cognitive schemas, IRD decreases embeddedness in supportive romantic, educational, and employment relations, which influence social schemas and later crime. Consonant with expectations, the findings also indicate that racial socialization provides enduring resilience by both compensating for and buffering discrimination's criminogenic effects.     

DOES CRIME JUST MOVE AROUND THE CORNER? A CONTROLLED STUDY OF SPATIAL DISPLACEMENT AND DIFFUSION OF CRIME CONTROL BENEFITS*

Recent studies point to the potential theoretical and practical benefits of focusing police resources on crime hot spots. However, many scholars have noted that such approaches risk displacing crime or disorder to other places where programs are not in place. Although much attention has been paid to the idea of displacement, methodological problems associated with measuring it have often been overlooked. We try to fill these gaps in measurement and understanding of displacement and the related phenomenon of diffusion of crime control benefits. Our main focus is on immediate spatial displacement or diffusion of crime to areas near the targeted sites of an intervention. Do focused crime prevention efforts at places simply result in a movement of offenders to areas nearby targeted sites—“do they simply move crime around the corner”? Or, conversely, will a crime prevention effort focusing on specific places lead to improvement in areas nearby—what has come to be termed a diffusion of crime control benefits? Our data are drawn from a controlled study of displacement and diffusion in Jersey City, New Jersey. Two sites with substantial street‐level crime and disorder were targeted and carefully monitored during an experimental period. Two neighboring areas were selected as “catchment areas” from which to assess immediate spatial displacement or diffusion. Intensive police interventions were applied to each target site but not to the catchment areas. More than 6,000 20‐minute social observations were conducted in the target and catchment areas. They were supplemented by interviews and ethnographic field observations. Our findings indicate that, at least for crime markets involving drugs and prostitution, crime does not simply move around the corner. Indeed, this study supports the position that the most likely outcome of such focused crime prevention efforts is a diffusion of crime control benefits to nearby areas.     

A CROSS‐NATIONAL TEST OF BONGER'S THEORY OF CRIMINALITY AND ECONOMIC CONDITIONS*

Using international data for 100 countries, we test two hypotheses derived from Bonger's Marxian theory of crime. The analyses support the hypothesis that the degree of capitalism significantly predicts homicide rates, but they fail to confirm that the de‐moralization of the population (loss of moral feelings for others) mediates the relationship between capitalism and homicide. Although capitalism is not the best predictor among those considered, overall, the results underline the importance of Bonger's ideas because both capitalism and corruption (our indicator of de‐moralization) show reasonably strong relationships with homicide rates and compete with other variables commonly used as predictors of international homicide rates. The results confirm the usefulness of attempting to subject Marxian ideas to positivist, quantitative tests, with an eye to integrating Marxian theories with other mainstream theories, such as institutional anomie theory.     

犯罪网络分析:社会网络分析在有组织犯罪研究中的应用

在刑事司法领域所使用的"网络"(networks)一词通常是指犯罪组织。一个犯罪网络首先也是一个社会网络,社会网络分析是对社会关系结构及其属性加以分析的一套规范和方法。它主要分析的是不同社会单位(个体、群体或社会)所构成的关系的结构及其属性。自美国"9.11事件"以来,世界各国政府、学者、媒体逐渐认识到社会网络分析在有组织犯罪防控研究中的重要作用,纷纷使用社会网络分析方法对恐怖主义犯罪等有组织犯罪进行犯罪网络分析、研究,通过解构犯罪组织,发现犯罪成员体系、结构特征与行动目标,从而对有组织犯罪进行有效预防和打击。我国应充分认识社会网络分析在现代有组织犯罪防控研究中的重要价值,全面了解国外有关理论与应用发展,积极采取政府资助项目研发与直接设立研究机构等多种手段,促进犯罪网络分析理论与方法在我国的迅速发展。     

THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN LAW VIOLATION AND DEPRESSION: AN INTERACTIONS ANALYSIS*

This paper integrates arguments from differential social control theory with sociological research on mental health to develop an interactionist explanation of the relationship between law violation and depression. We focus on the possibility that law violation and depression are related because they share common antecedents, as well as the possibility that these problems mutually influence one another over time. We test hypotheses derived from our theoretical perspective using covariance structure analysis and panel data. Our results show that the relationship between law violation and depression can be explained largely by common antecedents—social‐structural positions, stressful life events, and adolescent problems shape social relationships and identities, which together influence the likelihood of both early adulthood crime and depression. We also find limited support for mutual influence.     

STRESS,GENES, AND GENERALIZABILITY ACROSS GENDER: EFFECTS OF MAOA AND STRESS SENSITIVITY ON CRIME AND DELINQUENCY*

In the current study, we extend the gene‐by‐environment interaction (cGxE) literature by examining how a widely studied polymorphism, the MAOA upstream variable number tandem repeat (MAOA‐uVNTR) interacts with distal and proximal stressors to explain variation in crime and delinquency. Prior research findings have revealed that MAOA‐uVNTR interacts with single indicators of environmental adversity to explain criminal behavior in general‐population and incarcerated samples. Nevertheless, the genetically moderated stress sensitivity hypothesis suggests that increased risk for criminal behavior associated with variation in the MAOA‐uVNTR can be best understood in the context of both distal stress during childhood and proximal stress in adulthood. Therefore, we employed Tobit regression analyses to examine a gene–distal–proximal environment (CGxExE) interaction across gender in a sample of university students (n = 267) and with data from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health (Add Health; n = 1,294). The results across both sets of analyses demonstrate that variation in the MAOA‐uVNTR interacts with distal and proximal stress to lead to increased risk for criminal behavior in males. Although proximal life stress is associated with an increase in crime and delinquency, this effect is more pronounced among MAOA‐L allele carriers that have experienced distal stress.     

ROLE OF THE STREET NETWORK IN BURGLARS' SPATIAL DECISION‐MAKING*

Explaining why crime is spatially concentrated has been a central theme of much criminological research. Although various theories focus on neighborhood social processes, environmental criminology asserts that the physical environment plays a central role by shaping people's activity patterns and the opportunities for crime. Here, we test theoretical expectations regarding the role of the road network in shaping the spatial distribution of crime and, in contrast to prior research, disentangle how it might influence offender awareness of criminal opportunities and the supply of ambient guardianship. With a mixed logit (discrete choice) model, we use data regarding (N = 459) residential burglaries (for the first time) to model offender spatial decision‐making at the street segment level. Novel graph theory metrics are developed to estimate offender awareness of street segments and to estimate levels of ambient guardianship, distinguishing between local and nonlocal guardianship. As predicted by crime pattern theory, novel metrics concerning offender familiarity and effort were significant predictors of residential burglary location choices. And, in line with Newman's (1972) concept of defensible space, nonlocal (local) pedestrian traffic was found to be associated with an increase (decrease) in burglary risk. Our findings also demonstrate that “taste” preferences vary across offenders, which presents a challenge for future research to explain.     

SELF‐CONTROL THROUGH EMERGING ADULTHOOD: INSTABILITY,MULTIDIMENSIONALITY, AND CRIMINOLOGICAL SIGNIFICANCE

This study assesses self‐control theory's stability postulate. We advance research on self‐control stability in three ways. First, we extend the study of stability beyond high school, estimating GBTMs of self‐control from ages 10 to 25. Second, drawing on advances in developmental psychology and social neuroscience, especially the dual systems model of risk taking, we investigate whether two distinct personality traits—impulsivity and sensation seeking—often conflated in measures of self‐control, exhibit divergent developmental patterns. Finding that they do, we estimate multitrajectory models to identify latent classes of co‐occurring developmental patterns. We supplement GBTM stability analyses with hierarchical linear models and reliable variance estimates. Lastly, using fixed effects models, we explore whether the observed within‐individual changes are associated with changes in crime net of overall age trends. These ideas are tested using five waves of data from the Family and Community Health Study. Results suggest that self‐control is unstable, that distinct patterns of development exist for impulsivity and sensation seeking, and that these changes are uniquely consequential for crime. We conclude by comparing our findings with extant research and discussing the implications for self‐control theory.     

Hot Spots of Juvenile Crime: A Longitudinal Study of Arrest Incidents at Street Segments in Seattle,Washington

Recent studies have shown that crime is concentrated at micro level units of geography defined as hot spots. Despite this growing evidence of the concentration of crime at place, studies to date have dealt primarily with adult crime or have failed to distinguish between adult and juvenile offenses. In this paper, we identify crime incidents in which a juvenile was arrested at street segments in Seattle, Washington, over a 14-year period, to assess the extent to which officially recorded juvenile crime is concentrated at hot spots. Using group-based trajectory analysis, we also assess the stability and variability of crime at street segments over the period of the study. Our findings suggest that officially recorded juvenile crime is strongly concentrated. Indeed, just 86 street segments in Seattle include one-third of crime incidents in which a juvenile was arrested during the study period. While we do observe variability over time in trajectories identified in the study, we also find that high rate juvenile crime street segments remain relatively stable across the 14 years examined. Finally, confirming the importance of routine activity theory in understanding the concentration of juvenile crime in hot spots, we find a strong connection between high rate trajectory groups and places likely to be a part of juvenile activity spaces. Though place-based crime prevention has not been a major focus of delinquency prevention, our work suggests that it may be an area with great promise.     

VOLUNTARY ORGANIZATIONS AND NEIGHBORHOOD CRIME: A DYNAMIC PERSPECTIVE*

Although numerous theories suggest that voluntary organizations contribute to lower crime rates in neighborhoods, the evidence for this proposition is weak. Consequently, we propose a dynamic perspective for understanding the relationship between voluntary organizations and neighborhood crime that involves longitudinal analyses and the measurement of the age of organizations. By using longitudinal data on a sample of census blocks (N = 87,641) located across 10 cities, we test the relationship between age‐graded measures of different types of voluntary organizations and neighborhood crime rates. We use fixed‐effects negative binomial regression models that focus on change within neighborhoods of the relationship between voluntary organizations and neighborhood crime. Our results show that although each type of voluntary organization is found to exhibit crime‐reducing behavior in neighborhoods, we find that many of them are consistent with what we refer to as the “delayed impact scenario”—there is a pronounced delay between the placement of a voluntary organization and a neighborhood subsequently experiencing a reduction in crime. With protective effects of organizations typically not demonstrated until several years after being in the neighborhood, these patterns suggest a need for long‐term investment strategies when examining organizations.     

TARGETED ENFORCEMENT AND ADVERSE SYSTEM SIDE EFFECTS: THE GENERATION OF FUGITIVES IN PHILADELPHIA*

Research on targeted enforcement in high‐crime places has focused on direct crime‐reduction impacts, possible displacement of crime, and more recently, diffusion of benefits to adjacent areas. Studies have ignored other unanticipated negative effects that a place‐oriented enforcement intervention may have on the justice system overall. Using the generation of fugitive defendants as one possible example of an important system side effect, this study proposes hypotheses relating to adverse, generalized, system side effects of a place‐ and crime‐focused intervention, and it tests for target area and targeted crime‐type effects, nontarget area and nontargeted crime‐type effects, and overall system effects. The analysis employs a multiple interrupted time‐series design [auto‐regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA)] to test the impact of one widely publicized, geographically targeted drug‐enforcement strategy in Philadelphia (Operation Sunrise, formally launched in June 1998) on the incidence of bench warrants as a measure of fugitives (weekly aggregate bench warrants series for the period January 1994–May 2005; N= 590 observations). The findings appear to support all hypotheses as they relate to the example of the generation of fugitives, and suggest a generalized system adverse side effect from the circumscribed place‐ and crime‐focused intervention. The implications of the findings for both research and policy relating to targeted enforcement interventions are discussed.     

CAN HOT SPOTS POLICING REDUCE CRIME IN URBAN AREAS? AN AGENT‐BASED SIMULATION*

Over the past two decades, there has been a growing consensus among researchers that hot spots policing is an effective strategy to prevent crime. Although strong evidence exists that hot spots policing will reduce crime at hot spots without immediate spatial displacement, we know little about its possible jurisdictional or large‐area impacts. We cannot isolate such effects in previous experiments because they (appropriately) compare treatment and control hot spots within large urban communities, thus, confounding estimates of area‐wide impacts. An agent‐based model is used to estimate area‐wide impacts of hot spots policing on street robbery. We test two implementations of hot spots policing (representing different levels of resource allocation) in a simulated borough of a city, and we compare them with two control conditions, one model with constant random patrol and another with no police officers. Our models estimate the short‐ and long‐term impacts on large‐area robbery levels of these different schemes of policing resources. These experiments reveal statistically significant effects for hot spots policing beyond both a random patrol model and a landscape without police. These simulations suggest that wider application of hot spots policing can have significant impacts on overall levels of crime in urban areas.     

LOW SELF‐CONTROL,ROUTINE ACTIVITIES,AND FRAUD VICTIMIZATION*

Recent research has used both routine activity/lifestyle frameworks and self‐control theory to explain victimization. Thus far, combined tests of these theories have focused on offending populations and street crime victimization. Whether these frameworks also explain exposure to and likelihood of nonviolent victimization (e.g., fraud) in general‐population samples remains an open empirical question. Building on prior work, we assess the independent effects of routine consumer activities (i.e., remote purchasing) and low self‐control on the likelihood of fraud targeting and victimization. Using a representative sample of 922 adults from a statewide survey in Florida, the results confirm our expectation that remote‐purchasing activities increase consumers' risk of being targeted for fraud. Low self‐control has no effect on whether consumers are targeted, but it does significantly increase the likelihood of fraud victimization.     

BUSINESS CYCLES AND STREET CRIME

This study examines the influence of business cycle fluctuations on street crime in the conceptual framework of Cantor and Land's(1985) seminal work distinguishing between opportunity and motivation effects. The analysis contributes to the literature three ways. First, we use cross‐section/time series data, which has several important advantages over simple time‐series or cross‐section data of previous studies. Second, it introduces a new and broader measure of business cycle conditions, one that more faithfully captures the logic of Cantor and Land's framework than previous measures do. Third, it focuses on the large decline in street crime of the 1990s, a central issue facing criminologists. Statistical models indicate that the strong economy of the 1990s reduced all four index property crimes and robbery by reducing criminal motivation. Business cycle growth produced no significant opportunity effect for any of the crimes studied.