Predicting batterer recidivism five years after community intervention

The purpose of this study was to examine batterer recidivism rates 5 years after community intervention and to determine differences that discriminate between recidivists and nonrecidivists. Of the 100 men included in the sample, 40% were identified as recidivists because they were either convicted of domestic assault, the subject of an order for protection, or a police suspect for domestic assault. A discriminant analysis was conducted using a variety of background and intervention variables. Five variables were selected that significantly discriminated between recidivists and nonrecidivists and correctly classified 60.6% of the cases. Men who had been abusive for a shorter duration prior to the program, court ordered to have a chemical dependency evaluation, in chemical dependency treatment, abused as children, and previously convicted for nonassault crimes were more likely to be recidivists. Variables relating to intervention did not significantly predict recidivism. Implications for community intervention programs are discussed.     

The effect of gender on violent and nonviolent recidivism: A meta-analysis

A large body of literature has been dedicated to understanding re-offending after release from prison - a phenomenon known as recidivism. A meta-analysis was conducted using fifty- seven published studies on actuarial predictors of both violent and nonviolent recidivism in men and women. The current analysis resulted in 127 effect sizes between violent recidivists and non-recidivists, and sixty-eight effect sizes between violent recidivists with nonviolent recidivists. Several variables (drug/alcohol use, age, and marriage) were predictive of recidivism. Gender differences were also observed. In men, increased violent criminal history was associated with increased violent recidivism. This effect was not true for women. In fact, longer sentences were predictive of violent re-offending in women and not men. Despite limited data on women, pursuing the predictors of recidivism in men and women independently demonstrated that gender differences exist, and supported the need for more data concerning the predictors of recidivism in women.     

Effectiveness of a prolonged incarceration and rehabilitation measure for high-frequency offenders

Objectives

To estimate the incapacitation effect and the impact on post-release recidivism of a measure combining prolonged incarceration and rehabilitation, the ISD measure for high frequency offenders (HFOs) was compared to the standard practice of short-term imprisonment.

Methods

We applied a quasi-experimental design with observational data to study the effects of ISD. The intervention group consisted of all HFOs released from ISD in the period 2004–2008. Two control groups were derived from the remaining population of HFOs who were released from a standard prison term. To form groups of controls, a combination of multiple imputation (MI) and propensity score matching (PSM) was used including a large number of covariates. In order to measure the incapacitation effect of ISD, the number of convictions and recorded offences in a criminal case of the controls were counted in the same period as their ISD counterfactuals were incarcerated. The impact on recidivism was measured by the prevalence and the frequency of reconvictions corrected for time at risk. Robustness of the results were checked by performing a combined PSM and difference-in-difference (DD) design.

Results

The estimate of the incapacitation effect was on average 5.7 criminal cases and 9.2 offences per ISD measure. On average 2.5 convictions and 4 recorded offences per year per HFO are prevented. The HFOs released from ISD showed 12 to 16 % lower recidivism rates than their control HFOs released from prison (Cohen’s h?=?0.3–0.4). The recidivists of the ISD group also showed a lower reconviction frequency than the control group recidivists (Cohen’s d?=?0.2).

Conclusions

The ISD measure seems to be effective in reducing recidivism and crime. The estimated incapacitation effect showed that a large portion of criminal cases and offences was prevented. DD analysis and sensitivity analyses confirmed the robustness of the PSM results. Due to the absence of actual treatment data, the effects found cannot be attributed separately to resocialization, imprisonment, or improvement of life circumstances.     

Not Just a Boy's Club

Abstract

The extant literature suggests that habitual criminality among women is rare and that female career criminals are ostensibly nonexistent. Using the criminal records of 500 male and female adult recidivists, this study applies the concept of career criminality to women and describes how this application has specific gendered elements. Like their male peers, women are chronic, versatile offenders engaged in violent, property, and public-order offending. Women are disproportionately engaged in forgery, fraud, and prostitution whereas men are disproportionately engaged in rape, robbery, and aggravated assault. No gender differences existed for a variety of additional offenses and criminal justice system statuses. However, significant gender differences exist for social demographic characteristics, such as age and timing of onset, and criminal career parameter indicators, such as span of criminal career. These data and analyses indicate that the career criminal classification has important implications for criminal career research and gender-based criminology.     

案外情节与人身危险性

犯前、犯后情节简单归属于人身危险性不只是语义缺损,而且违背法治原则。因为处罚未然之罪缺乏正当根据。从理论上讲,累犯、惯犯可罚性的根据是行为人蔑视、敌视法益的意志状态能被罪过归属;积极救助、赔偿被害人或者威胁被害人或因部分减轻犯罪侵害程度、或客观说明其犯罪意志状态和改变而可以影响刑罚轻重;行为人自首、立功从宽处罚在于他与法律合作的态度是其再社会化的基本要求。简言之,为安全适用刑法,所谓“人身危险性”在特定情况下可影响刑罚适用的综合评判标准,但不宜直接成为情节的定性根据。     

Extreme career criminals

Although murder, rape, and kidnapping are considered extremely serious crimes, little criminal career research has focused on these perpetrators. This study examines 500 habitual offenders who have accumulated at least 30 entries in their arrest histories. Multivariate analysis of variance (MANOVA) and negative binomial regression solutions indicate that murderers, rapists, and kidnappers totaled more violent Index arrests, netted more felony convictions and prison sentences, and offended for a longer span than other chronic recidivists. Given the policy relevance of career criminal research, more scholarly attention should focus on extreme offenders.     

Types of crimes committed by repeat DUI offenders

This study investigates whether repeat driving under the influence (DUI) offenders have more extensive histories of violent, property, and drug crimes than first-time drunk drivers. It also offers an exploratory investigation into the extent of their criminal specialization. Negative binomial regression was performed on arrest and criminal history data from a systematic random sample of 429 DUI arrestees. Analyses controlling for age, gender, ethnicity, and employment found that being a repeat DUI offender increased the total number of violent and property convictions (regardless of severity) and petty misdemeanor/violation property convictions. The results suggest DUI recidivists are generalists rather than specialists and that impaired driving is best viewed as just one manifestation of a host of deviant behaviors. They also illustrate the challenges of rehabilitating and deterring DUI recidivists and the potential differences between first-time and repeat DUI offenders. The findings should not be interpreted as support of enforcement or deterrent DUI policies that focus on repeat offenders, as limited resources are most efficiently directed at the general population of impaired drivers.     

How nonrecidivism affects predictive accuracy: evidence from a cross-validation of the Ontario Domestic Assault Risk Assessment (ODARA)

Prediction effect sizes such as ROC area are important for demonstrating a risk assessment's generalizability and utility. How a study defines recidivism might affect predictive accuracy. Nonrecidivism is problematic when predicting specialized violence (e.g., domestic violence). The present study cross-validates the ability of the Ontario Domestic Assault Risk Assessment (ODARA) to distinguish subsequent recidivists and nonrecidivists among 391 new cases with less extensive criminal records than previous cross-validation samples, base rate=27%, ROC area=.67. Excluding ambiguous nonrecidivists increases the base rate to 33%, ROC area=.74. Random samples of 50 recidivists and 50 unambiguous nonrecidivists yield ROC areas from .71 to .80. Published norms significantly underestimate official recidivism. Ambiguous nonrecidivism is prevalent and leads to underestimating base rates and predictive accuracy.     

Typologies,risk and recidivism in partner-violent men with the B-SAFER: a pilot study

The research describes the criminal profile of 100 imprisoned partner-violent men (PVM) in Spain, and the follow-up for an average of 15 months of 40 released cases. The ability of the Brief Spousal Assault Form for the Evaluation of Risk (B-SAFER) to classify offenders according to typologies and to predict recidivism is analyzed. The results show that PVM have low level of specialization (only 45% limit their criminal activity to intimate partner violence (IPV)) and high level of recidivism (47% previously have been in prison, and 41% have prior arrest for IPV). The B-SAFER shows a high capacity to classify according to batterers typologies (accuracy of 79% with a score ≥13) in two groups: non-pathological and antisocial/pathological offenders. After prison release, 17.5% relapsed (15% in IPV), and 66% have done so within the first year. The B-SAFER had a predictive accuracy of 70% (sensitivity 100%). From antisocial/pathological group, 21% have recidivate compared to 12.5% in non-pathological aggressors, with an over-representation of antisocial/pathological subtype among recidivists (71%). The best predictive variables are the justification of violence, age at first imprisonment, and treatment. There is a 9% of recidivism among treated offenders compared to 50% in the untreated group.     

Recidivism in subgroups of severe male juvenile offenders

Abstract

Prior research is lacking on the incremental contribution of juvenile offender classification systems in predicting recidivism. To address this gap, the present study examined a five-group classification system of severe adolescent male offenders based on the personality and clinical scales of the Millon Adolescent Clinical Inventory (MACI). Group membership was used to predict adult recidivism while controlling for criminal history. Male juvenile offenders classified as anxious/impulsive were less frequent recidivists than most other groups and had fewer charges after release than some other groups. Offenders classified into the psychopathy group were notable for their high rate of recidivism (nearly 50%). These results highlight the potential utility of offender classification systems for informing risk assessments among severe male juvenile offenders.     

Recidivist criminal behaviour and executive functions: a comparative study

This study sought to analyse the relation between executive functions and criminal recidivism. We assessed a set of cognitive abilities associated with executive functioning in a group of recidivist offenders (n = 19), primary offenders (n = 25) and non-offenders (n = 30). Our results, tested with nonparametric statistics and Monte Carlo method, revealed that there were no executive differences between both groups of offenders but, when compared with non-offenders, the recidivists showed a worse performance in Trail Making Test part B, and the primary offenders presented a significant lower score on Porteus Maze Test Age score. This study suggests that there can be a different pattern of executive functioning deficits associated with the offenders’ criminal record: recidivism may be more related to mental flexibility impairments and primary offenders’ antisocial behaviour may be aggravated by planning deficits.     

Development and Predictive Ability of a Behavior-Based Typology of Men Who Batter

This study explores the existence and predictive ability of a behavior-based typology of men who were adjudicated for a domestic violence crime in an urban criminal justice system. Data from 671 men who completed a 2-hour biopsychosocial assessment were analyzed using cluster analysis. Findings indicate a typology of low level criminality (25.6%), dysphoric volatile behavior (42.2%), and dysphoric general violence (32.2%) similar to previous typologies, but with some unique characteristics. The behavior-based typology predicted both program completion and subsequent rearrest. This study provides preliminary support for the development of typological assessment in criminal justice and BIP settings for early identification of men who may need additional interventions.     

Risk assessment with adolescent sex offenders

The paper describes an evaluation of a risk assessment tool's effectiveness in distinguishing adolescent sexual offenders who had committed further sexual offences from those who had not. The sample consisted of 50 male adolescent sexual offenders referred to a forensic outpatient service within a healthcare setting. The adolescents within the sample were designated recidivists versus non-recidivists using two methods: clinican's judgement and Home Office records for reconvictions. The risk assessment achieved a moderate to high level of sensitivity and specificity in distinguishing the recidivists from non-recidivists using clinician's judgement of recidivism as outcome. However, the tool was unable to distinguish recidivists from non-recidivists. The risk assessment tool described has potential in the identification and modification of contextual and clinical risk factors, in informing professionals’ decision-making and in developing and implementing a comprehensive risk management plan.     

Juvenile Sex Offenders: Differences between Group and Solo Offenders

We report on findings from a study into differences in personality and background characteristics between juvenile sex offenders who commit their sex offenses on their own and those who do so in a group. Solo offenders were found to score significantly higher on neuroticism, impulsivity and sensation seeking, but scored lower on sociability. In addition, the solo offenders in the sample were more often recidivists for sexual offenses, and were more often themselves a victim of a sexual offense. Solo offenders were significantly older than juveniles who had committed a sexual offense with a group. On the basis of these results we recommend differential treatment for the two types of offenders.     

Recidivism is related to psychopathy (PCL-R) in a group of men convicted of homicide

It is well known that psychopaths are a group with high risk for criminality. Despite that, researchers and clinicians have not yet agreed on a general cause of psychopathy. However Raine [Raine, A. (2002). Biosocial studies of antisocial and violent behavior in children and adults: A review. Journal of Abnormal Child Psychology, 30, 311-326.] advocated a biosocial model of violent behaviour where the greatest risk for criminal behaviour occurred when both heredity and environmental risk factors (e.g., social class, childhood history) were present. In this follow-up study, 35 men convicted of homicide were assessed retrospectively for psychopathy according to the Psychopathy Checklist-Revised (PCL-R). Information on personal history, as well as from legal documents and records of offences committed by the subjects was also obtained. Fourteen of the 35 men were classified as psychopaths. Two men, both rated as psychopaths, had criminal parents. Twenty-seven of the men had a social relationship with their victim, and eleven out of these were rated as psychopaths. There was no difference in PCL-R scores between those who had a social relationship with their victim and those who did not. The psychopaths relapsed more frequently than the nonpsychopaths into criminality after their prison term. This result confirms previous research indicating that psychopathy is a risk factor for recidivism. It is, therefore, very important that psychopaths get the best possible treatment, aftercare, and supervision.     

‘Mr Peel’s Amendments’ in New South Wales: Imperial Criminal Reform in a Distant Penal Colony

This article investigates the difficult interface between metropolitan legal reform and empire in the late 1820s. In 1828, the Supreme Court of New South Wales sentenced dozens of men to death under legislation that had been repealed in Britain. It then insisted that every one of them be set free. This mess raised a fundamental question agitated in different ways around the empire in that decade: to what degree should colonial subjects enjoy the benefits of modernized metropolitan criminal law? Even as successive local and metropolitan Acts imposed new constraints on the civil rights of convicts in New South Wales, the Supreme Court insisted that even the most notorious recidivists in the colony should be protected against the Bloody Code from the moment it was reformed at home. In doing so, the court ignored the terms of section 1 of the Criminal Statutes Repeal Act passed at the request of a former East India Company officer to preserve the operation of the Code in India. Thus the peculiar reception controversy in New South Wales shows not only how disruptive metropolitan reform could be for colonies, it performed a growing racial gap in the imagination of legal subjecthood in different corners of empire.     

Gender differences in violent offending: results from a multicentre comparison study in Dutch forensic psychiatry

ABSTRACT

The past two decades, a disproportionate growth of females entering the criminal justice system and forensic mental health services has been observed worldwide. However, there is a lack of knowledge on the background of women who are convicted for violent offenses. What is their criminal history, what are their motives for offending and in which way do they differ from men convicted for violent offenses? In this study, criminal histories and the offenses for which they were admitted to forensic care were analyzed of 218 women and 218 men who have been treated between 1984 and 2014 with a mandatory treatment order in one of four Dutch forensic psychiatric settings admitting both men and women. It is concluded that there are important differences in violent offending between male and female patients. Most importantly, female violence was more often directed towards their close environment, like their children, and driven by relational frustration. Furthermore, female patients received lower punishments compared to male patients and were more often considered to be diminished accountable for their offenses due to a mental illness.     

Patterns of prior offending by child abductors: A comparison of fatal and non-fatal outcomes

Our study examines the prior offending of 750 individuals who are known to be responsible for the abduction of a child under the age of 18 years. The first group comprised of 311 offenders (42%) who had abducted a child that was later located alive (found alive, referred to as FA). The second group was comprised of 439 offenders (58%) who had abducted a child that was either found murdered or was still missing and presumed dead (found murdered, referred to as FM). While males perpetrated the majority of the abductions, women perpetrated 31 (10%) of the offenses in the FA group and 10 (2%) of the offenses in the FM group. The average number of prior offenses as reflected in the NCIC criminal history of each offender was seven with these occurring over an average of 12 years. Seventy-five percent of the offenders had prior arrests for an assortment of different crimes while 25% had no known criminal history, a finding that was consistent across both the FA and FM groups. Of those with a criminal history, 41% had been arrested for assault, 40% for larceny, 35% for burglary/breaking and entering, 33% for forcible sex offenses, 25% for drug/narcotic offenses, 21% for weapons law violations, 17% for motor vehicle thefts, 15% for robbery, and 14% for kidnapping. Our findings are congruent with the theme of criminal diversity among child abductors and argue against the specificity in offending that is often assumed with this type of sexual offender. This information is relevant to our understanding of the progression in criminal offending that is manifested by offenders who abduct children and will hopefully be used by law enforcement in helping to direct and focus their investigations.     

A PROSPECTIVE TEST OF A CRIMINAL CAREER MODEL*

In an earlier article in this journal, Barnett, Blumstein, and Farrington (1987) formulated a model that described the criminal careers of the multiple offenders in a cohort of London males that had been studied from their 10th to 25th birthdays. That model involved two subpopulations of offenders (denoted as “frequents” and “occasionals”), each characterized by a constant annual conviction rate (μ) and a constant probability (p) of terminating the career following a conviction. This article describes the results of a prospective and predictive test of the model using new data collected on the same offenders from their 25th to 30th birthdays. The original model accurately predicted the number of recidivists, the degree of recidivism risk, the total number of recidivist convictions, and the time intervals between recidivist convictions. However, the predictions for the frequents suffered some distortions introduced by a few “intermittent” offenders who seemed to have terminated their careers, but who re-initiated offending during the test period after a long gap.     

监狱刑嫌调控对象的排查方法研究

狱侦刑嫌调控是监狱一项长期而艰巨的侦查基础任务。由于传统“重危犯查控制度”不具有该侦查基础模式的一些特定功能，而且排查“重危犯”的方法又有着诸多缺陷，致使监狱的侦查视线不能真正“剑有所指”，这决定了监狱必须依托情报导侦平台与科学的情报侦查方法，先要准确及时地排查出哪些罪犯具有再犯罪危险性与可能性，然后才能有效开展刑嫌信息的研判、预警、侦查、控制等职能。那么，监狱为实现；住确控制与精确打击犯罪的战略目标，对刑嫌对象的排查应如何建立起科学适用的方法体系呢？