The relative validity of psychopathy versus risk/needs‐based assessments in the prediction of adolescent offending behaviour

Purpose . The predictive validity of the psychopathy checklist‐youth version (PCL:YV) and Youth Level of Service/Case Management Inventory (YLS/CMI) for juvenile offenders were compared to examine whether a broad needs–risk tool predicted violence better than a focused individual assessment of psychopathy. Methods . 94 adolescents from residential and secure units were interviewed and assessed using the PCL:YV and YLS/CMI. Total scores were retrospectively applied to staff‐recorded incidents of violence, total number of charges and convictions and formally recorded assaults. The predictive accuracy of each tool was assessed using correlational and receiver operator characteristic analyses. Results . The PCL:YV was a better predictor of staff‐recorded violence than the YLS/CMI; both instruments were similar in their ability to predict total number of charges and convictions and assaults. When subdivided by gender, the correlations for predicting staff recorded violence in male participants were significantly higher than for female participants for both test instruments. Both instruments were broadly equivalent in their association with assaults and charges and convictions by gender. Conclusion . The PCL:YV is a better predictor of recorded violence than the YLS/CMI, but for charges and convictions and assaults, the YLS/CMI and PCL:YV were comparable for UK adolescent offenders. When recalculated to exclude the likelihood of predictor–criterion overlap, the results were the same. These findings are discussed in relation to the value of using risk–needs assessment instruments as compared with scales with a more psychopathological and personality focus.     

Short and long-term prediction of recidivism using the youth level of service/case management inventory in a sample of serious young offenders

The present investigation examined the predictive accuracy of the Youth Level of Service/Case Management Inventory (YLS/CMI) for youth and adult recidivism in a Canadian sample of 167 youths (93 males, 74 females) charged with serious offenses who received psychological services from a community mental health outpatient clinic. Youths were followed for an average of 7 years in the community, and predictive accuracy was examined for several recidivism outcomes as a function of gender, ethnicity, and developmental age group. YLS/CMI total scores significantly predicted all recidivism categories in the overall sample (area under the curve values ranged from 0.66 to 0.77) although the instrument as a whole, and its criminogenic needs, demonstrated somewhat stronger and more consistent predictive accuracy for youth outcomes. The YLS/CMI also demonstrated significant predictive accuracy within demographic subgroups. The implications of these findings are discussed in terms of the use of risk-need assessment tools in providing clinical assessment, treatment, and case management services to diverse young offender groups. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2012 APA, all rights reserved).     

The differential predictive validity of the Youth Level of Service/Case Management Inventory: the role of gender

Most criminogenic risk assessments are developed and empirically validated on samples of boys or samples comprised of mostly boys, and subsequently applied to girls. Using a sample of male (n = 1,267) and female (n = 453) probationers, the purpose of the current study was to examine the potentially differential performance of the Youth Level of Service/Case Management Inventory (YLS/CMI) and the instrument’s eight domains for female juvenile offenders. Findings revealed gender differences in the predictive validity of the YLS/CMI in which girls scored significantly higher on the risk assessment, but recidivated at significantly lower rates than boys two years following the administration of the assessment. The predictive validity of the instrument was impacted by these gender differences in which the YLS/CMI total score was a better predictor of recidivism for boys (area under the curve (AUC) = .623) than girls (AUC = .565). The only subscales that significantly predicted recidivism for girls were the family (AUC = .607) and personality (AUC = .572) domains, whereas all of the subscales significantly predicted recidivism for boys. Directions for future research as well as gender-responsive assessment, programming, and policy implications are discussed.     

The predictive validity of youth violence risk assessment tools: a systematic review

ABSTRACT

This paper reports the findings of a systematic search of published literature which reports the predictive validity of violence risk assessment tools specifically designed for use with youth. A total of 38 studies, involving 9,307 participants, reported data for six different tools; the most common of which were the SAVRY and the YLS/CMI. Each of the tools demonstrated at least moderate levels of predictive validity, with the predictive validity of several newer assessment tools yet to be established. The results provide an up-to-date overview of the state of knowledge in an area in which practitioners make choices about which tools to use on an almost daily basis. It is important that practitioners are aware of the strength of evidence that is available to support the choice of violence risk assessment tools and the interpretation of results.     

Are the major risk/need factors predictive of both female and male reoffending?: a test with the eight domains of the level of service/case management inventory

The Level of Service/Case Management Inventory (LS/CMI) and the Youth version (YLS/CMI) generate an assessment of risk/need across eight domains that are considered to be relevant for girls and boys and for women and men. Aggregated across five data sets, the predictive validity of each of the eight domains was gender-neutral. The composite total score (LS/CMI total risk/need) was strongly associated with the recidivism of males (mean r = .39, mean AUC = .746) and very strongly associated with the recidivism of females (mean r = .53, mean AUC = .827). The enhanced validity of LS total risk/need with females was traced to the exceptional validity of Substance Abuse with females. The intra-data set conclusions survived the introduction of two very large samples composed of female offenders exclusively. Finally, the mean incremental contributions of gender and the gender-by-risk level interactions in the prediction of criminal recidivism were minimal compared to the relatively strong validity of the LS/CMI risk level. Although the variance explained by gender was minimal and although high-risk cases were high-risk cases regardless of gender, the recidivism rates of lower risk females were lower than the recidivism rates of lower risk males, suggesting possible implications for test interpretation and policy.     

In the eye of the beholder? An examination of the inter-rater reliability of the LSI-R and YLS/CMI in a correctional agency

PurposeTo examine the inter-rater reliability of two risk assessment tools: The Level of Service Inventory-Revised (LSI-R) and the Youth Level of Service/Case Management Inventory (YLS/CMI).MethodsTwo identical experiments are reported. For both studies, a random sample of 10 offenders were interviewed and videotaped with each tool (totaling 20 offenders). The tapes were then shown to a random selection of 20 raters (for a total of 40 raters) employed at a state agency. The fully-crossed design allowed each of the raters to rate the each of the cases, resulting in 200 total risk score observations for each tool. Inter-rater reliability analyses were then conducted.ResultsThe LSI-R demonstrated adequate to fair reliability, with certain domains showing lower reliability. Overall, the LSI-R had an ICC of .65. The YLS/CMI demonstrated higher reliability (ICC of .78). In addition, for the LSI-R study, comparisons were made between staff raters who work in a facility versus those in the community (e.g., probation officers). For the YLS/CMI study, comparisons were made between incarcerated offenders versus probationers. Neither comparison yielded consistent differences.ConclusionsThe YLS/CMI is generally reliable. The LSI-R showed less reliability. However, each study showed certain domains with less than ideal reliability.     

Exploring the validity of the Level of Service Inventory-Revised with Native American offenders

The use of actuarial risk/need assessment tools is an increasingly important part of the correctional landscape. Actuarial tools ideally will provide a valid, dynamic assessment of an offender's overall risk/need level, and will identify their most prevalent criminogenic needs. What results is typically a number or score that can be used to assign an offender to a risk level that is associated with an assumed likelihood of recidivism. Testing the predictive validity of actuarial risk/need assessment tools is of paramount concern, particularly when they are utilized with new (and under-researched) populations. The current study assessed the predictive validity of the Level of Service Inventory-Revised using a sample of Native American and White offenders in a northern midwestern state. Results showed the instrument to have modest predictive validity utilizing the entire sample of offenders, with varying results for subsequent subgroups.     

A Case Management Instrument for Use in Juvenile Justice Systems

The Youth Level of Service/Case Management Inventory (YLS/CMI) is a standardized instrument designed to assist juvenile justice system personnel in assessing risk and needs in their clients and in case planning. The measure is presented as an alternative to the unstructured informal assessments that so often guide decisions in these systems. It is relevant to all phases of the judicial process, including decisions regarding pretrial detention, transfers and waivers, preadjudicatory diversion, and sentencing. It is particularly relevant to case planning in community and institutional settings. The instrument is described, issues in application discussed, and the available psychometric information reviewed.     

Predictive validity of the Structured Assessment of Violence Risk in Youth (SAVRY) during residential treatment

This prospective study examines the predictive validity of the Dutch version of the Structured Assessment of Violence Risk in Youth (SAVRY) by examining relationships between SAVRY scores and various types of disruptive behavior during residential treatment. The SAVRY, a risk assessment instrument, was coded for 66 male adolescents on the basis of file information and interviews. The adolescents were referred to Rentray, a juvenile correctional and treatment facility, by the Dutch juvenile courts because of severe behavioral problems or serious offenses. Institutional infractions were retrieved from incident registration files, which included acts of physical violence, verbal threat, verbal abuse, and violation of institutional rules. The interrater reliability of the SAVRY scores was good. The predictive validity of the SAVRY for physical violence against persons was excellent (Risk Total: AUC=.80, r =.33; Summery Risk Rating: AUC =.86, r =.48). The SAVRY also had good predictive validity for violence against objects, verbal threats and violations of rules, but not for verbal abuse. Implications for assessment and management of violent behavior among adolescents in residential treatment are discussed.     

Risk Assessment for Juvenile Justice: A Meta-Analysis

Risk assessment instruments are increasingly employed by juvenile justice settings to estimate the likelihood of recidivism among delinquent juveniles. In concert with their increased use, validation studies documenting their predictive validity have increased in number. The purpose of this study was to assess the average predictive validity of juvenile justice risk assessment instruments and to identify risk assessment characteristics that are associated with higher predictive validity. A search of the published and grey literature yielded 28 studies that estimated the predictive validity of 28 risk assessment instruments. Findings of the meta-analysis were consistent with effect sizes obtained in larger meta-analyses of criminal justice risk assessment instruments and showed that brief risk assessment instruments had smaller effect sizes than other types of instruments. However, this finding is tentative owing to limitations of the literature.     

Predicting outcome with the Level of Service Inventory-Revised: The importance of implementation integrity

Correctional agencies face increasing pressure to provide more services for increasing caseloads with fewer resources. The Level of Service Inventory-Revised (LSI-R) is a risk/need assessment instrument that was designed to assist correctional agencies in classifying offenders based upon risk of re-offending, thereby allowing agencies to assign appropriate levels of risk/need and develop intervention/case-plans accordingly. Although predictive validity of the LSI-R has been demonstrated, very little attention has been paid to the effect that staff training and agency experience have on the validity of this comprehensive, dynamic risk/need assessment tool. The use of formalized training and agency experience were found to be important factors that may determine the validity of the risk/need scores that are gleaned from the LSI-R assessment process.     

Disproportionate minority contact in the juvenile justice system: An investigation of ethnic disparity in program referral at disposition

Historically, minority youth have experienced harsher punishments and more negative outcomes than White youth even when risk assessment is used. The current study investigated the role of ethnicity in an understudied dispositional decision–program referral–and the outcomes associated with said referral using a sample of juvenile offenders (N = 2,678). The study used the Youth Level of Service/Case Management Inventory (YLS/CMI) to determine (1) if ethnicity predicted program referral when accounting for risk assessment and (2) if program referral predicted recidivism. Results indicated that ethnicity predicted program referral, and program referral predicted recidivism. Future directions for Disproportionate Minority Contact (DMC) research and implications for court officials are discussed.     

How well do dynamic needs predict recidivism? Implications for risk assessment and risk reduction

Purpose

The current study assessed the predictive validity of nine dynamic risk factors in two samples of justice-involved individuals (n = 24,972) to identify promising targets for correctional programming. The study also tested the incremental predictive validity of dynamic risk relative to static indicators of recidivism risk (i.e., criminal history, age and sex).

Methods

The study relied on bivariate correlations and stepwise multivariate logistic regression analyses to test the predictive and incremental validity of dynamic risk constructs measured by the Level of Service Inventory-Revised (LSI-R).

Results

Study findings revealed that while several dynamic risk constructs were significantly related to recidivism (antisocial attitudes, antisocial peers, education/employment, and substance abuse) over a 36-month follow-up period, the inclusion of dynamic risk items on the LSI-R did little to improve the overall predictive validity of the instrument. Across both study samples, static criminal history risk emerged as the most robust predictor of recidivism.

Conclusions

The advantages of third and fourth generation risk-need assessment tools are noted for classification purposes, but the study findings imply that risk prediction is better served by static risk factors. Implications for risk assessment and offender case management are discussed.     

Subgroup differences and implications for contemporary risk-need assessment with juvenile offenders

Risk-need assessment is widely accepted as best practice with juvenile offenders and is underpinned by a healthy research literature on risk assessment inventories. Previous studies have found both similarities and differences on risk measures when gender and racial/ethnic subgroups have been compared. Differential validity has been examined, but differential prediction has been overlooked. The current study undertook gender and ethnic comparisons for a large sample (n = 3568) of community-based juvenile offenders who were evaluated using the Australian Adaptation of the Youth Level of Service/Case Management Inventory (YLS/CMI-AA). Analyses showed various gender and ethnic differences at the item level, across domain scores and on the total inventory score, but not for validity indices. However, 1-year reoffending rates for youth in three classification categories (low, moderate, high) varied by gender and ethnicity. The findings were related to contemporary understandings of the risk factors for offending and the dynamics of crime for gender/ethnic subgroups. It is argued that in spite of these subgroup differences, a generic inventory such as the YLS/CMI-AA can be used fairly with various subgroups. Recommendations for how this could be accomplished are provided. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2012 APA, all rights reserved).     

Supervisory experience and data points: implementation barriers,risk assessment and correctional professionals

Drawing on interviews with 24 correctional practitioners who use risk assessment instruments daily, we examine barriers to the use and implementation of these instruments. Findings reveal that practitioners have confidence in the state of risk assessment generally, but are skeptical about risk assessment on the job due to limited resources. They also point to barriers that inhibit their effectiveness including recognition of population heterogeneity, predictive misspecification due to data lags and overemphasis on stable predictors, and lacking guidance on appropriate use of vast available data. Instruments for measuring risk serve purposes beyond those intended by the social scientists who developed measures. We conclude with lessons for increasing the utility and legitimacy of risk assessments and with a call for incorporating latent uses of assessments into design.     

Examining the predictors of juvenile probation officers' rehabilitation orientation

According to the importation model, individual attributes such as gender and race influence correctional orientation. In contrast, the work/role model contends that differences in correctional orientation are due to work experiences and environment. The purpose of the present study was to explore whether individual attributes, work-related experiences, and perceptions of one's own cultural competency and juveniles' social supports predicted rehabilitation orientation for one hundred juvenile probation officers working within an organization framework that favored a balanced approach to juvenile justice. Multiple regression results indicated that the importation variables were not predictive of rehabilitation orientation, either as a set or individually. The work/role model and the perception variable sets predicted rehabilitation orientation. Employment type and perceptions of social support were most strongly related to rehabilitation orientation. The study's unique contribution stems from its use of unordered sets analyses to examine the relative validity of theoretical grounded sets of variables.     

Ethnicity, gender, and the Level of Service Inventory-Revised

Offender assessment and classification is becoming an increasingly important part of correctional supervision and intervention. Over the last several decades, several different methods and “generations” of offender classification have emerged. Of most value appear to be third-generation, actuarial, dynamic risk/need assessments. With any new correctional strategy, however, there is a need to investigate the use of these risk/need assessments on offender subgroups in order to inform issues, such as reliability and prevalence of criminogenic risk factors. The present study utilized data that were gathered using the Level of Service Inventory-Revised (LSI-R). Results and comparisons of these assessments were investigated and presented for Native American and non-Native American offenders as well as male and female offenders. Discussion of the results, implications, and recommendations for further research are presented.     

Assessment of prison escape risk

The literature concerning assessment of escape probability in prison inmates appears to be somewhat contradictory: A variety of potential predicator variables have been studied with mixed results. Only four state correctional systems report using a formal risk assessment predictive procedure or instrument (Hinshaw, 1978). Traditional correctional criteria (e.g., length of sentence, violent crimes, sex crimes, etc.) have been found to be of limited, utility at best (Lane & Rans, 1982). Alternative predictor variables which have been examined inchide the Minnesota Multiphasic Personality Inventory (MMPI), juvenile history, employment history substance abuse patterns, and marital status.     

承运人在海运提单项下的到货通知义务

首先从合同义务来源的角度分析了承运人在提单项下承担到货通知义务的法律依据,并对提单中通知条款的效力进行探讨;进而结合有关国内法和CMI运输法草案的规定分析了通知义务的履行和有关通知的责任问题,并分析了其与提货义务的关系。