Criminal Recidivism Among Juvenile Offenders: Testing the Incremental and Predictive Validity of Three Measures of Psychopathic Features

We studied the predictive, comparative, and incremental validity of three measures of psychopathic features (Psychopathy Checklist: Youth Version [PCL:YV]; Antisocial Process Screening Device [APSD]; Childhood Psychopathy Scale [CPS]) vis-à-vis criminal recidivism among 83 delinquent youth within a truly prospective design. Bivariate and multivariate analyses (Cox proportional hazard analyses) showed that of the three measures, the CPS was most consistently related to most types of recidivism in comparison to the other measures. However, incremental validity analyses demonstrated that all of the predictive effects for the measures of psychopathic features disappeared after conceptually relevant covariates (i.e., substance use, conduct disorder, young age, past property crime) were included in multivariate predictive models. Implications for the limits of these measures in applied juvenile justice assessment are discussed.     

The relative validity of psychopathy versus risk/needs‐based assessments in the prediction of adolescent offending behaviour

Purpose . The predictive validity of the psychopathy checklist‐youth version (PCL:YV) and Youth Level of Service/Case Management Inventory (YLS/CMI) for juvenile offenders were compared to examine whether a broad needs–risk tool predicted violence better than a focused individual assessment of psychopathy. Methods . 94 adolescents from residential and secure units were interviewed and assessed using the PCL:YV and YLS/CMI. Total scores were retrospectively applied to staff‐recorded incidents of violence, total number of charges and convictions and formally recorded assaults. The predictive accuracy of each tool was assessed using correlational and receiver operator characteristic analyses. Results . The PCL:YV was a better predictor of staff‐recorded violence than the YLS/CMI; both instruments were similar in their ability to predict total number of charges and convictions and assaults. When subdivided by gender, the correlations for predicting staff recorded violence in male participants were significantly higher than for female participants for both test instruments. Both instruments were broadly equivalent in their association with assaults and charges and convictions by gender. Conclusion . The PCL:YV is a better predictor of recorded violence than the YLS/CMI, but for charges and convictions and assaults, the YLS/CMI and PCL:YV were comparable for UK adolescent offenders. When recalculated to exclude the likelihood of predictor–criterion overlap, the results were the same. These findings are discussed in relation to the value of using risk–needs assessment instruments as compared with scales with a more psychopathological and personality focus.     

The predictive validity of youth violence risk assessment tools: a systematic review

ABSTRACT

This paper reports the findings of a systematic search of published literature which reports the predictive validity of violence risk assessment tools specifically designed for use with youth. A total of 38 studies, involving 9,307 participants, reported data for six different tools; the most common of which were the SAVRY and the YLS/CMI. Each of the tools demonstrated at least moderate levels of predictive validity, with the predictive validity of several newer assessment tools yet to be established. The results provide an up-to-date overview of the state of knowledge in an area in which practitioners make choices about which tools to use on an almost daily basis. It is important that practitioners are aware of the strength of evidence that is available to support the choice of violence risk assessment tools and the interpretation of results.     

Orientations to juvenile justice: Exploratory notes from a statewide survey of juvenile justice decisionmakers

This study examined the extent to which orientations to juvenile justice held by decisionmakers are related to their functional roles and educational backgrounds. Predictions concerning this question were drawn from both the literature on complex organizations and writings by scholars interpreting and forecasting the future of juvenile justice.The findings indicate that assignment to specific roles in the juvenile justice system is a significant predictor of commitment to either a rehabilitative or a just deserts model of juvenile justice. This effect appears to be modified to some extent by educational backgrounds and professional identifications. The implications of these findings for a continuation of the traditional rehabilitative ideal in juvenile justice are discussed.     

A coffee can, factor analysis, and prediction of antisocial behavior: the structure of criminal risk

The predictive accuracy of the Psychopathy Checklist-Revised, Level of Service Inventory-Revised, Violence Risk Appraisal Guide, and the General Statistical Information on Recidivism were compared to four instruments randomly generated from the total pool of original items. None of the four original instruments better predicted post-release failure than the four randomly generated instruments. These results suggest two conclusions: (a) the instruments are only measuring criminal risk, and (b) no single instrument has captured sufficient risk assessment theory to result in better prediction than randomly derived instruments measuring criminal risk. A two-stage factor analysis was completed on 1614 cases. This analysis of the risk items indicated a 4-factor solution and all 4 factors were equal to the original instruments in predicting post-release failure. Thus, the original instruments did not improve prediction over randomly structured scales, nor did the restructuring of items improve risk assessment, suggesting substantial deficiencies in the conceptualization of risk assessment and instrumentation. We argue that developing a risk-based construct, which involves hypothesis testing and an explanation of behavior, is the optimal method to advance risk assessment within the criminal justice and mental health systems. Such an approach would provide targeted areas for clinical intervention that are salient to risk.     

Accuracy of the static-99 in predicting recidivism in Switzerland

The Static-99 is a widely used actuarial risk assessment instrument. Various international validation studies have found satisfactory to good predictive validity for the Static-99, with the area under the curve (AUC) between 59% and 95%. This study is the first evaluation of the predictive accuracy of the Static-99 among sex offenders in Switzerland. The Static-99 scores of 69 violent/sex offenders in Switzerland were assessed using data from their psychiatric assessments. Recidivism was operationalized as reconviction assessed from penal records. The Static-99 risk levels were predictive for recidivism (AUC = .758) among our population. The results are discussed on the basis of the literature.     

Issues in Juvenile Program Implementation: A Case Study

Both adult and juvenile justice agencies seek to offer quality programs, but implementing a new program can be a difficult and daunting task. The purpose of this paper is to highlight the issues and concerns faced by one jurisdiction as a result of attempting to implement a new curfew check program. The goal is to share specific issues with general underlying solutions that may be utilized in other jurisdictions. An examination of the records of 79 juvenile offenders assigned to the program provides the information for this discussion. Results indicate that some basic assumptions of the program designers were incorrect, and that constant monitoring and the centralization of tasks were keys to program sustainability.     

Judges’ Perceptions of Screening,Assessment, Prevention,and Treatment for Substance Use, Mental Health,and HIV among Juveniles on Community Supervision: Results of a National Survey

Juvenile Justice‐Translational Research on Interventions for Adolescents in the Legal System (JJ‐TRIALS) National Survey was funded in part to describe the current status of screening, assessment, prevention and treatment for substance use, mental health, and HIV for youth on community supervision within the US juvenile justice system. Surveys were administered to community supervision agencies and their primary behavioral healthcare providers, as well as the juvenile or family court judge with the largest caseload of youth on community supervision. This article presents the findings from the judges’ survey. Survey results indicated juvenile and family court judges were open to innovations for improving the court's performance, rated their relationships with collaborators highly, and appreciated the impact of screening, assessment, prevention, and treatment on judicial practices.     

Sexual recidivism: A review of static,dynamic and actuarial predictors

The need for accurate risk assessment of sexual offence recidivism has never been greater. It is widely accepted that actuarial risk instruments outperform clinical judgement and the literature has recently witnessed a surge of empirically derived actuarial measures. However, in spite of the increased levels of predictive accuracy, actuarial measures have been criticized as being unrepresentative, lacking specificity, and being heavily reliant on static risk factors without taking into account dynamic risk, psychological emotional states and treatment effects. Rather than offering a critique of the actuarial movement, this paper offers a summary of static and dynamic risk factors associated with sexual offence recidivism as identified from the literature. Implications of incorporating dynamic factors into risk assessments and actuarial measures are discussed.     

Holistic Representation: A Randomized Pilot Study of Wraparound Services for First‐Time Juvenile Offenders to Improve Functioning,Decrease Motions for Review,and Lower Recidivism

Mental health diagnoses, substance abuse issues, and school problems are often cited as contributors to adolescents’ involvement with the juvenile justice system. Yet, few youth receive assessment, evaluation, or intervention prior to their involvement with the juvenile courts. This pilot study evaluated whether providing a randomized trial of wraparound forensic social work services in addition to court‐appointed legal services would improve functioning, decrease motions for review, and lower recidivism for first‐time juvenile offenders. Findings indicate statistically significant improvement for youth receiving wraparound services on six out of eight measures. A case study example is provided and implications for service provision are explored.     

危险评估与控制——新刑罚学的主张

在我们的社会中,少部分犯罪分子实施了大部分犯罪。如果能够“标定”出这些犯罪分子,并对他们加以控制,全社会的犯罪将会得到有效控制,而且犯罪控制成本将大大降低。所谓“标定”就是危险评估。经过长期探索,危险评估已经出现很多工具。如何使危险评估既保持较高的信度与效度,同时又提高可操作性,是危险评估研究与实践需要解决的重要问题。危险控制的措施主要有：延长具有高度危险罪犯的监禁期;构建罪犯的“危险”回应机制;确立“危险罪犯”标定与控制制度;性犯罪登记、公告制度。     

Risk assessment vs real prediction: The prediction problem and public trust

Confusing risk assessment and the prediction of individual behavior has led to false claims which, if translated into juvenile court or adult sentencing policies (selective incapacitation, for example), may lead to further erosion in public confidence in the justice system. Considerable emphasis has been placed on the consequences of false positives in the literature and in this paper. The false negative has different but equally damaging effects because the impression may be given that increasing the severity of sanctions for selected serious offenders is the solution to juvenile delinquency and adult crime. Analysis of official police records for three birth cohorts from Racine, Wisconsin, reveals that, although high-risk groups produce a disproportionate share of the delinquent and criminal behavior recorded in police reports and juveniles in high-risk groups continue into adult crime disproportionately to others, serious juvenile offenders still account for only a portion of the serious offenses that will ultimately be committed by adults. Therefore, selective incapacitation of early offenders may take only a small bite out of crime. When referrals rather than police contacts were utilized as the predictor variable, there was little difference in predictive efficiency.     

Predicting institutional misconduct using the Youth Level of Service/ Case Management Inventory

Offender assessment in corrections has advanced considerably over the last several decades. Currently, it is not uncommon to find correctional professionals using any number of objective standardized assessment instruments. While many of these instruments possess face validity as well as statistical predictive validity, more work is needed to test classification protocol on new populations, and in various correctional environments. The current paper investigates the predictive validity of the Youth Level of Service/Case Management Inventory (YLS/CMI) within an institutional setting. Specifically, the composite score rendered from the YLS/CMI is used to predict institutional misconduct. The YLS/ CMI was found to effectively differentiate between two levels of offender risk/ need, and was significantly related to outcome using several different statistical techniques.     

Decomposing disproportionate minority contact in juvenile justice

The objective of this study was to decompose racial disparity in juvenile justice decision-making into a part explained by differing characteristics of racial groups, and an unexplained part often attributed to discrimination. Individual case-level data from Alabama and logistic regression were used to model detention, petition, and disposition decisions in the juvenile justice system. Decomposition of racial disparity between white and black juveniles using the nonlinear Blinder-Oaxaca methodology suggested that about a half to three fourths of the racial gaps in the three juvenile justice decision points were caused either by discrimination or unobserved predictors. Decomposition of racial disparity in juvenile justice can help devise effective public policy by quantifying the extent to which specific policies can reduce disproportionate minority contact.     

Virtual reality: a use case for criminal justice practice

ABSTRACT

In recent years, virtual reality (VR) technology has convincingly demonstrated its potential for assessment, training, rehabilitation and treatment purposes in a variety of domains, including (mental) healthcare and education. This paper explores the possibilities for VR application within criminal justice practice. Criminological literature and literature of related disciplines on VR applications were reviewed with a special focus on risk assessment, correctional rehabilitation, and reintegration. We also devoted attention to the VR-based treatment of anxiety-related disorders among victims of crime. Literature shows that VR can provide safe learning environments that would otherwise involve risk, generate ethical and ecologically valid virtual alternatives for which real-life situations would be unethical to use, and develop environments that are impossible to create in the real life. These unique characteristics make VR a promising tool to expand the current toolbox of risk assessment instruments, and correctional rehabilitation and reintegration programs in important ways. Before implementing VR in criminal justice practice, an elementary understanding of both the advantages and disadvantages of VR technology is desirable but given a longstanding and effective VR tradition in other domains, the future of VR in criminal justice practice is bright.     

Recommendations for Judicial Action on Adoption Disruption

Abstract Adoption disruption is examined by a brief literature review and by the presentation of findings from a juvenile court case review process. Among the findings is the crucial role played by a juvenile court judge who intervened with emphasis on post-placement services for adoptive families and children, which minimized the risk of the placements to disrupt. Recommendations are offered to assist the juvenile justice system when decisions must be made that will effect unstable adoptive placements.     

Assessment and management of risk for intimate partner violence by police officers using the Spousal Assault Risk Assessment Guide

Intimate partner violence (IPV) is a crime that is present in all countries, seriously impacts victims, and demands a great deal of time and resources from the criminal justice system. The current study examined the use of the Spousal Assault Risk Assessment Guide, 2nd ed. (SARA; Kropp, Hart, Webster, & Eaves, 1995), a structured professional judgment risk assessment and management tool for IPV, by police officers in Sweden over a follow-up of 18 months. SARA risk assessments had significant predictive validity with respect to risk management recommendations made by police, as well as with recidivism as indexed by subsequent contacts with police. Risk management mediated the association between risk assessment and recidivism: High levels of intervention were associated with decreased recidivism in high risk cases, but with increased recidivism in low risk cases. The findings support the potential utility of police-based risk assessment and management of IPV, and in particular the belief that appropriately structured risk assessment and management decisions can prevent violence.     

Predictive validity of the Structured Assessment of Violence Risk in Youth (SAVRY) during residential treatment

This prospective study examines the predictive validity of the Dutch version of the Structured Assessment of Violence Risk in Youth (SAVRY) by examining relationships between SAVRY scores and various types of disruptive behavior during residential treatment. The SAVRY, a risk assessment instrument, was coded for 66 male adolescents on the basis of file information and interviews. The adolescents were referred to Rentray, a juvenile correctional and treatment facility, by the Dutch juvenile courts because of severe behavioral problems or serious offenses. Institutional infractions were retrieved from incident registration files, which included acts of physical violence, verbal threat, verbal abuse, and violation of institutional rules. The interrater reliability of the SAVRY scores was good. The predictive validity of the SAVRY for physical violence against persons was excellent (Risk Total: AUC=.80, r =.33; Summery Risk Rating: AUC =.86, r =.48). The SAVRY also had good predictive validity for violence against objects, verbal threats and violations of rules, but not for verbal abuse. Implications for assessment and management of violent behavior among adolescents in residential treatment are discussed.