我国重大行政决策风险评估独立性原则之重构

重大行政决策风险评估制度的设立初衷是为了增强决策行为的科学理性,而这一功能的实现取决于风险评估制度能否保障评估主体的独立性话语权,我国当前行政决策风险评估制度的不足关键就在于评估主体的独立性缺失。本文将对独立性原则的基本内涵进行重新梳理,阐述在增强行政决策科学理性方面独立性原则之功能,对比分析我国和欧美国家风险评估制度,提出行政决策风险评估独立性原则的制度保障。     

交往密度与国际体系的演变——约翰·鲁杰建构主义思想述评

约翰·鲁杰大量借鉴涂尔干的社会事实理论和吉登斯的结构化理论，从建构主义的角度探讨了国际体系演变这一国际关系研究中的传统问题。国际体系结构具有二元性，既制约行为体，又由行为体所创造和再造。包括新现实主义和新自由制度主义理论在内的新功利主义国际关系理论主要关注的是国际体系结构对行为体的制约，忽视了行为体建构和重新建构国际体系的能动作用。鲁杰以从中世纪封建国家体系到现代领土国家体系演变的细致分析，阐述了自己的体系演变理论：国际体系中行为体交往密度的变化，在时间和空间两个维度上改变了国际体系的单位分异原则，单位分异原则的变化导致国际体系的变化。     

交往密度与国际体系的演变——约翰鲁杰建构主义思想述评

约翰·鲁杰大量借鉴涂尔干的社会事实理论和吉登斯的结构化理论,从建构主义的角度探讨了国际体系演变这一国际关系研究中的传统问题。国际体系结构具有二元性,既制约行为体,又由行为体所创造和再造。包括新现实主义和新自由制度主义理论在内的新功利主义国际关系理论主要关注的是国际体系结构对行为体的制约,忽视了行为体建构和重新建构国际体系的能动作用。鲁杰以从中世纪封建国家体系到现代领土国家体系演变的细致分析,阐述了自己的体系演变理论:国际体系中行为体交往密度的变化,在时间和空间两个维度上改变了国际体系的单位分异原则,单位分异原则的变化导致国际体系的变化。     

台湾产业技术需求与创新效率危机

全球化和科技化趋势下，理性的产业定位与有效的技术创新成为提升国家（地区）产业与经济竞争力的关键因素，如何把有限的资源，分配在能给产业发展带来最大效用的技术创新上，是各个国家或地区产业定位的根本原则。由于受到产业规模与技术基础、适应与接收能力、产业生命周期地位等因素影响，台湾产业形成重应用轻基础的技术需求型态，这一点无论从创新投入或产出中都可得到验证。然而，尽管立足于效用最大化原则，这种以应用为主的技术需求还是使台湾的内部创新出现研发投入经济效率低、论文与专利影响力有限、产业设备自制率不高等创新效率危机。     

埃尔多安胜选与土耳其政治走向

2023年5月，埃尔多安再次当选土耳其总统，由其领衔的正义与发展党在首轮议会选举中获得多数席位。然而，反对党把此次总统选举拖入第二轮投票且在议会的席位增加，可见埃尔多安赢得并不轻松。胜选后，埃尔多安在应对政治纷争、改善经济环境、强地震后重建以及改善民生等领域面临诸多亟待解决的难题。展望未来，埃尔多安连任预示着土耳其国内基本政治制度将得以延续，或将在改善行政管理和经济治理方面采取新措施，在对外政策中继续施展“平衡外交”，并在一些国际热点问题上扮演“关键角色”。     

美国关于经济制裁的战略思考与对华禁运决策（1949-1953）

如何发挥经济制裁的对外安全和政治作用,向来是国家对外战略思考和决策的一个重要议题。对此,国际政治研究成果表明,出于政治目的的对外经济制裁具有特定的内涵、模式、动机和效果。特别在解决国际冲突时,对外经济制裁构成了一个介于采取军事行动和无所作为之间的替代选择。那么,这些理论性的假设能否在冷战国际关系中得以验证?为此,本文依据美国和英国的解密外交档案,以美国及西方国家对中国实施贸易禁运和经济制裁的战略思考与决策的起始阶段(1949—1953)为考察对象,试图分析对外经济制裁行为的战略意义。     

理论驱动与大国崛起——美国的经验

一个国家的崛起，根本上是思想的崛起，特别是理论的发展完善程度，对于一个国家能否真正实现崛起具有决定性作用。在美国的崛起过程中，思想动力和智力支持都是一个不可缺少的因素。最初，美国对崛起的理论准备，是紧紧围绕美国面临的现实政策问题而展开的。围绕“如何处理美国与世界的关系”问题，美国提出了与国内政治哲学相一致的国际政治哲学，确立了推动建立以自由民主原则为基础的新美利坚帝国外交大战略，形成了一个内部充满竞争又有机统一的美国国际关系理论体系。尤其是美国战略界关于国际管制模式的现实主义理论设计，以摩根索、凯南、基辛格、布热津斯基等人为代表的一批国际战略家敢于直面美国国际政治现实，从美国大战略的高度为美国规划未来，为美国崛起提供了强大的智力支持。同时，美国将理论研究纳入制度化轨道，先后建立了公共智库制度、情报制度和政策顾问制度，为美国理论的战略与政策转化提供了可靠的支点。因此，美国的经验在于一个大国崛起，必须在国内和国际问题上确立一个内在价值和外在制度相一致的大战略理论及其制度体系，使之成为世界强国的理论支柱。     

中国气候外交议题策略探析

在国际气候谈判中，中国的外交话语杈偏弱，特别反映在哥本哈根和坎昆气候大会上，中国总是受到西方的指责，并承受了巨大的国际减排责任压力。要想提升中国当前的气候外交话语权，应在议题策略上有所突破，最关键的是要提出国际气候治理的中国方案。中国方案的核心是为发展中国家争取经济转型的“缓冲期”策略，并在“公平承担份额”的原则指导下，制定“可实现、可完成”的“中度限额”减排方案。在此基础上，中国在气候谈判中还应更多地使用议题联系战略，迫使发达国家妥协，以更有效地维护国家利益。     

限制权力，为规范开辟空间——克氏规范建构主义研究

克拉托齐维尔的规范建构主义有其自身的特色。克氏认为理性主义国际关系理论因其本质是功利主义分析而无法解决从个体理性到集体理性的障碍。问题的根源在于逻辑实证主义的科学研究方法建立在主体和客体二元对立的基础上,假定语言指涉外部事实并借助严密的归纳和演绎逻辑研究人类行为。这种研究方法忽略了言语行为中的施事行为和取效行为,本质上是自语而非交流,因此无法获得人类行为的真正意义。针对理性主义的缺陷,克氏提出了自己理论的假定和规范通过实践推理决定行为的假设。与科学推理的价值无涉相反,实践推理中充满价值判断,是理解互动中人类行为意义的正确途径。克氏规范建构主义理论对国际关系研究意义重大,它驱散了国际政治的权力迷雾,为国际关系的规范研究回归开辟了空间。但由于其论证过程中排除了基于不平等的权力政治,假定了冲突方的自由意志,因此在某种程度上是一种应然研究,这给他的理论带来了局限性,但应然包含在人类行为的价值判断中,是研究行为体行为时无法忽视的因素。     

2013年5月国际形势大事述评

一、克里赴俄谈合作共商应对叙危机 5月7日，美国国务卿克里抵达莫斯科，展开就职后首次访俄之旅。有舆论指出，克里此行旨在同俄罗斯领导人充分交换意见，改善僵持中的美俄关系除商谈反导问题和经贸合作外，美俄还就应对叙利亚危机进行了重点探讨。克里在与俄罗斯总统普京会谈时表示，两国在叙利亚问题上有重大共同利益，包括保持地区稳定和阻止极端势力活动，希望双方能努力找到解决问题的方案。访问期间，克里同俄方达成共识，同意在日内瓦举行新的国际会议，争取通过对话方式实现叙利亚和平。     

Binary decision analysis: An empirical approach to predicting and understanding organizational decisions

Binary decision analysis is an alternative approach to the analysis of organizational decisions that lends itself well to mathematic analysis. The purpose of this paper is to present and test the application of the binary approach to decision analysis and its subsequent mathematical testing using logit regression. Binary decision analysis focuses on each decision as a single choice between two distinct alternatives or a step in a sequence of such binary choices in more complex organizational decisions. Logit regression is a type of regression especially developed to deal with binary dependent variables in the context of inferential statistical testing. By successfully combining these two approaches, and adhering to the theoretical and statistical assumptions upon which they are based, a potentially useful tool of organizational decision analysis results. An applied example of this approach tests its utility. Appropriate conclusions about the method are made based on that test.     

Combining Citizen Participation and Expert Analysis: A Wild,Wild Horses Problem in British Columbia

Local governments face increasingly complex decisions and must inevitably rely on professional staff with specialised knowledge. However, ordinary citizens and stakeholders are demanding the right to directly participate in governmental decisions. What is the appropriate division of labour? The article proposes a practical approach to participatory decision making that tries to combine administrative efficiency and democratic legitimacy. The approach decomposes the decision problem into a number of discrete stages. An action research methodology is used to illustrate the application of the method. Specifically, we decompose a ‘roaming horse’ problem in the interior of British Columbia to identify the information requirements for each stage of the model. We use a series of web-based Delphi surveys to elicit specific information from citizens regarding objectives and potential alternatives. The survey results suggest that a relatively simple and cost-effective deliberative tool like Delphi can facilitate an effective division of labour between citizens and government experts.     

The Politics of Environmental Licensing: Energy Projects of the Past and Future in Brazil

How do societies make complex choices about concrete energy alternatives? Can citizens play effective roles in balancing risks and benefits? This article proposes that energy choices can be best understood as the result of a balance of power between state-society coalitions that aim to either block or enable the project. Environmental licensing and financing decisions are two decision points where the coalitions face off—and where energy projects go forward or are stopped. The article demonstrates that environmental licensing has become an unexpectedly stringent process in Brazil, with both formal opportunities and historic practices increasing the influence of blocking coalitions. Yet case studies of the Belo Monte hydroelectric dam and massive new petroleum reserves in the “pre-salt” region show that blocking coalitions emerge inconsistently in the same institutional context, illustrating the hazards of relying on public mobilization for addressing certain kinds of risk situations. An “anticipatory state” may also pre-empt mobilization by proactively responding to the concerns blocking coalitions are likely to raise.     

Housing trends of the elderly: emerging policy and implications

Housing and living environment options are both one of the most pressing problem are as for the elderly and an unavoidable policy subject for public administrators. This article analyzes the topic of housing and the elderly so as to high light selected dimensions that might have implications for decision - makers in resource considerations and allocations. An opening section gives the status of how and where the elderly are now living. Six events, or environmental and policy changes, that affect the housing options of the elderly are analyzed. These events are: high mortgage rates; rent controls; condominium conversions; tax relief measures; weatherization programs; and reverse annuity mortgages. The two dominant trends that appear to shape the future housing options of the elderly are examined. The first trend is the provision of a range of alternatives in living arrangements. The creation of alternatives, also known as a continuum of living environments, includes congregate housing, share - a - home, life care or continuing care, geriatric foster care, and single room occupancy hotels. The second major trend is the increasing provision of services in the home setting. The final portion draws together the evident implications about the housing problems of the elderly for policy makers in the public management field. Implications that have community-wide ramifications are clustered as they relate to: increasing the housing supply; regulatory mechanisms; and budgetary references.     

APPLICATIONS OF PRINCIPAL-AGENT MODELS TO GOVERNMENT CONTRACTING AND ACCOUNTABILITY DECISION MAKING

ABSTRACT

This paper surveys literature from Economics, Accounting, and Management to address theoretical issues in Public Administration regarding government provided services in order to contribute to a formal connection between principal-agent models in these disciplines and public policy administration decision-making. In particular, it addresses the question: What theoretical properties of the services themselves might guide (a) the choice of producer of the services (government or outsourcing firm/contractor), and (b) the accountability imposed for the work produced. It is found that a theoretical framework of principal-agent models that includes the decision of whether to contract out can be useful as a first step in systematically formulating the government's decision for a variety of goods/services. This provides an alterative to the identification of key decision properties “from the ground up” for each good or service the government provides.     

Post-development theory and the question of alternatives: a view from Africa

Post-development theorists have declared development obsolete and bankrupt and have called for ‘alternatives to development’. What do they mean by such calls and what should be the African response to such calls? In this paper I will attempt to address three important questions: first, what is meant by post-development theory's call for ‘alternatives to development’? Second, why consider post-development theory from an African perspective? Third, what contributions can a consideration of African difference and diversity make towards debate on ‘alternatives to development’? I conclude by arguing that increased consideration of the African experience would be valuable for all who are seeking alternative ways of dealing with the problems that development purports to address.     

The ASEAN free trade area and the construction of a Southeast Asian economic community in East Asia

In October 2003, ASEAN leaders decided to establish an ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) by 2020. An AEC is presented by advocates as a logical step following the completion of the ASEAN Free Trade Area (AFTA) by ASEAN6 in 2003. Adopting a critical political economy approach inspired by the work of Mitchell Bernard and Robert W. Cox, this article argues that the decision to launch AFTA and an AEC are motivated primarily by the desire to transform Southeast Asia into an investment site and a production base for the world market within East Asia, in competition with China. AFTA and a future AEC are decisions taken within the structural context of an East Asian region characterised, among others, by the organisation of Japanese production and the developmental state.     

Territorial reforms in Europe: effects on administrative performance and democratic participation

Territorial reform is the most radical and contested reorganisation of local government. A sound evaluation of the outcome of such reforms is hence an important step to ensure the legitimation of any decision on the subject. However, in our view the discourse on the subject appears to be one sided, focusing primarily on overall fiscal effects scrutinised by economists. The contribution of this paper is hence threefold: Firstly, we provide an overview off territorial reforms in Europe, with a special focus on Eastern Germany as a promising case for cross-country comparisons. Secondly, we provide an overview of the analytical classifications of these reforms and context factors to be considered in their evaluation. And thirdly, we analyse the literature on qualitative performance effects of these reforms. The results show that territorial reforms have a significant positive impact on functional performance, while the effects on participation and integration are indeed ambivalent. In doing so, we provide substantial arguments for a broader, more inclusive discussion on the success of territorial reforms.     

To monitor or intervene? City managers and the implementation of strategic initiatives

Strategic initiatives represent a government's response to constituent and organizational needs, but are only effective if properly implemented. In local governments with a council‐manager form of government, city managers face a unique dilemma as compounding challenges of implementation often require them to step into leadership roles typically reserved for elected officials. For this qualitative study, 16 city managers and project leaders from US local governments were interviewed regarding the implementation of nine varied strategic initiatives. The responses indicate that city managers play an important dual role in implementation—first, monitoring the progress of the implementation team and the satisfaction of the stakeholder coalition; and second, choosing to intervene directly in implementation decision‐making when they observe missteps by the implementers or discontent from the stakeholders. These conclusions contribute to the practice perspective of strategic management theory and a better understanding of the institutional leadership role of city managers.     

(An)other Way of Being Human: ‘indigenous’ alternative(s) to postcolonial humanism

This essay articulates the ways in which the Indigenous People's Movement leading to the United Nations Declaration on the Rights of the Indigenous Peoples (2007) succeeds in what postcolonial theory has conventionally set out to emancipate, but has failed to do. Postcolonial theory challenges all eurocentric and liberal humanist discourses on rights which place the Western subject as the ideal subject figure of all histories and societies, and appeals for a language that would articulate other ways of being human and humanist. Yet recent trends in postcolonial theory have come to embrace the language of cosmopolitanism and humanism as viable alternatives for a postcolonial future. Drawing upon the principle thematic of the UN Declaration on the Rights of the Indigenous Peoples, the article suggests that the Declaration provides an alternative to postcolonial theory's revisionist humanism—the re-cognition of difference. As part of the international legal discourse, the Declaration is particularly noted for its political victory in the legitimisation of collective rights in postcolonial societies. Furthermore, as the Universal Declaration of Human Rights (1948) remains an integral part of the collective rights of the Indigenous Peoples, the article suggests that the Indigenous People's Movement succeeds in negotiating a language that would legitimise other ways of being human without being adversarial or antithetical to euro-humanism.