美日澳涉台安全合作新动向:路径、态势与制约

拜登政府将中国视为“最重大的地缘政治挑战”,在“联盟制华”与“以台制华”方面双向发力。作为同盟体系的核心,美国不断提高美日澳三边安全合作的制度化水平,以共同应对所谓中国威胁。出于相似的遏华战略偏好,美日澳正在通过议题联合介入、国内制度疏通、双边短板补足、三边同盟构筑、实战演练导向等路径,愈加细致深入地推动涉台安全协作。然而,三国的相关合作上限既会受到美国内政优先以及日澳的认知落差等“软约束”限制,也会受到联盟扩散导致的“衰减效应”以及日澳国内法制等“硬约束”牵制。可以预见的是,在短期内,美日澳的涉台安全合作会不断提速升级,但在是否以及何种程度共同协防台湾的问题上将继续保持适度的战略模糊。     

涉台外交领域的若干前沿问题与思考

两岸及美国的学者2010年以来涉台外交的研究成果显示,随着美国相对衰落、中国日益崛起,以及两岸关系的和平发展,美国"以台制华"的能力下降,台湾问题对中美关系大局的冲击和干扰也在减少。然而,从美国"重返亚太"、美台军事关系发展、美国国内围绕"弃台论"的政策辩论,以及台湾与中美构建新型大国关系的关系等问题的研究来看,本文认为,美国并未从根本上改变"以台制华"的固有战略,不希望两岸在东海、南海等问题上走得太近,美国仍然会在台湾"国际空间""国际经济空间"等问题上"搅局"。     

美国对台政策调整中的智库因素：以“全球台湾研究中心”为个案

近年来，美国行政当局和国会加大力度调整对台政策，不断冲撞历届政府遵守的“一个中国”政策。一些美国智库在此过程中扮演了不可或缺的角色，具有台湾民进党当局“官方”背景的全球台湾研究中心尤其活跃。这家致力于提升美台关系的小型智库地位特殊，擅长运用多种组合策略介入美国涉台政策过程。中美战略竞争的强化，为全球台湾研究中心影响美国对台政策提供便利，但长远来看，该智库在对台决策过程中的作用仍将受限。     

冷战后的日台关系浅析

90年代以来,日本不断提升日台关系,在台湾问题上卷入的态势明显加强。日本此举具有明显的平衡中国地区影响力的增长,牵制和遏制中国的战略考虑。同时,新日美防卫合作指针及其相关法案的通过,日本加速朝军事大国化迈进,以及日本右翼分子频频叫嚣要保卫台湾;这些无疑都助长了台湾岛内的“台独”势力,增加了我解决台湾问题的复杂性。台湾问题成为未来中日关系发展中不稳定和不确定因素。在台湾问题上潜伏着中日冲突的隐忧。     

香港特区政府处理涉台问题的法律与政策依据探析

香港特区政府处理涉台问题的法律与政策依据探析罗祥喜近半个世纪以来，香港以其特殊的政治、社会和地理条件，与大陆和台湾都维持直接且密切的关系，成为两个处于分离、对峙状态地区保持联系的纽带及交流接触的缓冲地与中介地，在海峡两岸近年的互动发展过程中起了...     

浅析美国对台政策的“民主困境”

台湾问题是美国亚太战略的重要组成部分。为确保在台利益，美国不仅长期维持与台湾的所谓“盟友”关系，并将支持和保护台湾的“民主”纳入美国对台政策的重要内容。冷战结束前后，美国敦促台湾当局启动和完成“民主转型”，“民主牌”也成为台湾当局寻求美国支持的重要手段，成为美台“断交”后双方构筑“实质关系”的价值纽带。但是，美国推动台湾实现“政治体制民主化”客观上也为台湾当局以“民主”方式抗衡外部特别是美国压力、     

战后日本的“台湾帮”日台关系

冷战后，亚太地区国际关系进入了重新组合与调整的新时期，中日关系以及这一大框架之下的日台关系也发生了引人注目的变化。日本国内右翼亲台势力，基于联合美国、牵制中国的战略构想，积极发展与台湾的“实质性”关系。台湾当局则竭力拓展“外交空间”，开展“务实外交”，试图借助外力，抗拒统一。     

台港民间关系述评

台港民间关系述评罗祥喜王晶＊台湾与香港的关系是一种特殊形式的两岸关系。“九七”前，台港关系是一个英国殖民统治下的香港与中国主体（大陆）尚处于分离状态的台湾地区的关系；港英政府的对台政策作为英国对华政策一个组成部分，其对涉台问题的处理必须符合“一个中国...     

浅析台对外渔业纠纷问题及台湾当局的应对策略

台湾海洋渔业发达,但与此同时,台与一些沿海国家的海洋渔业纠纷（以下简称为台对外渔业纠纷）时有发生。为维护海洋权益及避免损及对外“实质关系”,台湾当局采取了一系列应对措施,并欲借此凸显其在国际上的“独立实体”地位,拓展“国际生存空间”,这将对大陆涉台外交及维护海洋权益带来新的问题与挑战。     

“阳光法案”与台湾“廉政”问题──台湾《公职人员财产申报法》的特点、局限及其立法史

“阳光法案”与台湾“廉政”问题──台湾《公职人员财产申报法》的特点、局限及其立法史范忠信“青天白日，满地红包”，这是近年台湾报刊对国民党官员贪污腐败情形的高度概括。为惩治腐败，安抚民心，巩固统治，台湾当局近年来除制定了一系列与“吏治”有关的法律，例如...     

两岸关系制度化如何处理“台湾当局政治地位”问题

两岸关系和平发展制度化面临的核心障碍是：是否认同“两岸同属一个中国”，以及如何设计两岸都能接受的“一中”法律架构和中央政权架构，而台湾当局的政治地位及两岸关系定位则是争论的焦点所在。两岸在“国号”上的分歧并未改变“两岸同属于一个中国”、“中国的主权以及人民和领土完整并未分裂”的事实，只是中国内战未能彻底结束，导致了“一个中国内两个敌对政权阶段性并存”的格局。笔者认为，在两岸均以谋求国家和平统一为目标的前提下，似可默认在国家统一前双方政权互不隶属，两岸任何一方都不强求对方接受自己作为国内法意义上代表全中国的中央政府，并在国际社会共同维护“一个中国”。未来两岸“统一”的法律目标是：本着相互宽容和谅解的精神，通过平等协商，制定或认可两岸均能接受的、在全中国范围内具有最高法律效力的宪法或宪法性法律，组成能有效管治全中国的中央政府。     

EXHIBITING CHINESENESS: THE TAIWAN PROVINCIAL EXPOSITION OF 1948

Abstract

During the immediate postwar years, visual propaganda served as constitutive and instrumental means for the Nationalist government to “decolonize” the minds of people in Taiwan. The 1948 Taiwan Provincial Exposition highlighted the impact of politics on exhibitions during the critical period in Taiwan’s history. Unable to hold it in the national capital of Nanjing as initially planned, the Provincial Exposition Committee nonetheless maintained the core mission, “enhancing the mainlanders’ understanding of Taiwan,” and strove to mobilize official and individual participants from the mainland. Financed mainly by state-run enterprises, the Exposition delivered a spectacle in serving conservative interests, as encoded in the Exposition’s slogan, “Ensuring Prosperity through Stability.” The Exposition may be seen as an illuminating case to review postwar Taiwan at the threshold of a new era. This paper aims to reveal the complex, and perhaps paradoxical, narrative structures and competitive cultural forces behind the Exposition in redefining Taiwan as a part of China.     

美国“Z世代”大学生政治认同两极化及其原因

美国“Z世代”大学生的政治认同呈现明显两极化、主体向左的趋势。一方面,这种两极化与两党意识形态、政策立场保持高度一致;另一方面,两极化也显示出新的代际特征,即鲜明的道德色彩与强烈的对抗性。从社会心理学角度看,政治认同两极化的原因包括信念激情期的周期性再现、美国大学校园成为政治认同极化的孵化器、安全空间建构与微侵犯观念隔断大学不同政见者的沟通与交流、社交媒体强化“Z世代”同一阵营内部的政治认同等。“Z世代”大学生以“对抗共同敌人”的方式参与2020年美国总统选举并使投票率创下新高,这成为其政治认同极化公开表达的明证。这一态势引起了专家、学者等的警惕,重建大学校园政治生态成为美国社会的共识。大学生政治认同两极化也给未来的中美关系增添了不确定因素,社交媒体的运用将使“Z世代”大学生对华民意更具敌意,受害者心理将使美国舆论在人权等相关问题上对中国持更负面的评价,安全空间防线将使中国对外文化传播受到进一步干扰。“Z世代”大学生政治认同两极化趋势及大学校园政治生态将是评估美国政治未来走向的重要参考因素。     

中东欧地区大国博弈新态势--兼论中国-中东欧国家合作面临的挑战与机遇

在地缘安全、能源、价值观等方面,美国、以德国为主要代表的欧盟国家以及俄罗斯在中东欧地区有着广泛而重要的利益。三者的互动关系呈现美俄博弈主导中东欧安全形势,美德(欧)联合制俄但共识有限,美德(欧)对中国在中东欧的经济介入保持警惕但难以形成合力三个特征。随着中美竞争的持续,美德(欧)与以波兰、匈牙利为代表的中东欧国家在价值观上的分歧扩大,美德(欧)对俄罗斯的地缘政治攻势升级,中东欧地区的大国力量格局发生了新的变化。美国对中国的战略围堵压力持续加大,以德国为代表的欧盟国家对中东欧国家的控制力不断降低,俄罗斯反“守”为“攻”回应西方威胁,而德国新政府和新一届欧盟委员会对华政策更加突出价值观因素,导致中国—中东欧国家合作面临的地缘政治压力总体上有增无减。但是,美欧内部也并非铁板一块,以德国为代表的欧盟国家在中东欧控制力的弱化以及美欧与波兰、匈牙利等国关系的恶化,也为持续推进中国—中东欧国家合作带来了潜在机遇。以上因素作为影响中东欧国家对华政策的重要变量,需要密切关注。     

Public needs vs. private loss: land use regulation and property rights

Property rights and government regulation have been the subject of considerable discussion and controversy in recent years. The issue of “takings” has been raised in most of the state legislatures in the 1990s. Congress has considered legislation as well. Supreme Court decisions, in particular the Lucas and the Dolan cases, have focused judicial attention on the issue in recent years. Local elected officials, planners and local government administrators confront the issue increasingly as they attempt to respond to growth pressures and regulate land use. Unfortunately, a great deal the public's perception of property rights is myth or fable. This article addresses the issue of takings by putting it first into historical perspective. Thus, we see that regulation of private property by government is not new. The concern over “regulatory takings” is explored and traced briefly noting the entry of the federal government into the arena of land use regulation. Legislative responses are reviewed and finally the status of judicial consideration of the issue is brought up to date. The article closes with recommendations for those who confront the takings issue. While caution is indeed called for, regulation of private property is still a fact of life in American public administration and will be for some time to come.     

Political Business Cycle in Taiwan—Evidence from Central Government Expenditures

The political business cycle (PBC) refers to the phenomenon of an incumbent utilizing fiscal or monetary policies to create an economic boom before an election so that periodic fluctuations are induced according to election calendars. This article uses panel data from 1992 to 2010 to examine the effect of presidential elections on central government departmental expenditure in Taiwan. The results suggest an opportunistic PBC in Taiwan after the first Taiwanese presidential direct election in 1996. Furthermore, Taiwan’s government expenditure cycles have been significantly stronger in the years of the “new democracy.”     

Explaining the Chinese framing of the “terrorist” violence in Xinjiang: insights from securitization theory

This paper critically examines the Chinese framing of the “terrorist” violence in Xinjiang. Drawing on the Copenhagen school of securitization theory, it examines how the historical perception of the region as a primary source of security threats to inner China has led today’s China to continue with representing the Han Chinese–Uyghur discord as an existential threat. In framing the ethnic conflict as a security issue, China has capitalized on the global “war on terror” of the early 2000s to transform the unrest into acts of Islamist terrorism to legitimize its counter-insurgency policies in Xinjiang. However, both the 2009 Urumqi riots and the 2014 Kunming attack lead us to conclude that the securitization strategy fails to quell the unrest. Not only have the Strike-Hard campaigns served to radicalize Uyghur nationalists, but also Han Chinese are not convinced that the Chinese government can contain the “terrorist” threat. Yet securitization blinds the leadership to the dysfunctional ethnic policy.     

MAO’S ROLE IN THE KOREAN CONFLICT: A REVISION

Abstract

In October 1950, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) was only one year old, and the Beijing regime faced daunting tasks of regime consolidation and economic reconstruction. Thus, the CIA consistently predicted that China would not enter the Korean War, even if the United States crossed the 38th parallel. Acting on the CIA’s prediction, US forces invaded North Korea on October 8, 1950. China proved the CIA’s analysis wrong by sending masses of troops into Korea late in October, pushing the US force back south of the 38th parallel before the end of 1950. This article uncovers historical evidence to revise the existing literature on the topic of the Chinese intervention in Korea. Why did China intervene despite all the odds against Beijing? This study demonstrates the historical role of “agents,” that is, individual with various personal attributes. By using newly available sources from China and Russia as well as a new interpretation, this article breaks new ground on a significant topic in the fields of international relations and the Cold War international history.     

Democracy,bureaucracy, and state capacity in Taiwan

Taiwan has long had a reputation for effective policy-making based on a highly skilled and educated bureaucracy. In addition, this capacity for technocratic leadership has not resulted in a huge, inefficient bureaucracy since the size of government remains comparatively small. This paper explores the implications of Taiwan's recent democratization for the effectiveness of the country's public administration. On the one hand, democratization reduced the power of regime conservatives, thereby expanding the role of technocrats in the government; on the other burgeoning corruption and policy gridlock have clearly undercut effective policy-making. Thus, the most fundamental challenge for public administration in Taiwan appears to be re-establishing the bureaucratic integrity of technocratic government.     

NEWS AS A WEAPON: HOLLINGTON TONG AND THE FORMATION OF THE GUOMINDANG CENTRALIZED FOREIGN PROPAGANDA SYSTEM, 1937–1938

Abstract

This article examines the process of the centralization of the Guomindang (GMD) foreign propaganda system during 1937 and 1938. The US-trained journalist Hollington Tong was the key person linking Chiang Kai-shek with the English-language press cohort. Based on his personal news network in the treaty ports, Tong extended the government’s propaganda network in the United States and Britain. He professionalized the propaganda institution and pursued a “hands off policy,” co-opting foreign journalists by offering them substantial assistance. This article challenges the perceived passivity of China’s foreign propaganda activities and argues that foreign propaganda was an important war strategy for the GMD government after the outbreak of the Sino-Japanese War. Factionalism played an important role in expediting the centralization process. It was Chiang’s patronage that allowed Tong, a new member of the GMD, to lead the foreign propaganda system and pursue a liberal censorship policy.