中美构建新型大国关系的理论基础和实现途径初探

新型大国关系是冷战结束后逐渐发展起来的一种处理大国关系新的战略思维和国际关系的新模式,是在2012年中美第四轮战略与经济对话中,由中美两国共同提出的,是加强双方的信任与合作,开辟新型大国关系之路。中美新型大国关系的直接理论基础是相互依存理论。新的全球安全理论是中美构建新型大国关系的重要理论来源。中美构建新型大国关系的实现路径在于推动共同应对公共安全威胁,持续拓展中美两国共同利益,建立中美两国领域广泛的安全互信。     

结构性战略互动与冷战后中美安全关系

结构性战略互动是审视中美安全关系的重要视角。冷战后中美安全关系的发展是两国从各自安全利益出发进行战略互动的过程。从战略伙伴的终结到战略方向的迷失,经有名无实的战略伙伴和短暂的战略对抗,再到致力于构建新的战略合作,中美安全关系在冷战后已经历了复杂而频繁的起伏波动。中美之间的结构性战略互动决定中美安全关系具有明显的不对称性和不确定性。在可以预见的将来,中美安全关系仍然无法摆脱摇摆不定的基本格局。     

冷战后中美关系定位演变与新型大国关系构建

冷战后中美关系的定位一波三折,甚至大起大落。双方既达成过"共同致力于建立中美建设性战略伙伴关系"的共识,也险些从"战略伙伴"蜕变为"战略竞争者"。中美关系定位之所以不够稳定,与双方在认知和战略上的差异密切相关,同时也受到两国关系中其他结构性因素的影响。中美建立战略伙伴关系的尝试虽然没有成功,但对如今两国构建新型大国关系仍具有启示作用。首先,不能对复杂的中美关系作简单的"标签化"定位。其次,要重视两国在相互认知上的差异,做到知己知彼。再次,要运用底线思维,力争中美关系的主导权,做到有备无患。总之,构建中美新型大国关系不会一帆风顺,我们要从冷战后中美关系定位演变中汲取经验教训,避免重蹈上世纪末中美建立战略伙伴关系的覆辙,力争使中美新型大国关系成为未来中美关系的新常态。     

中美经贸关系变迁背后的 美国对华战略调整

自2018年3月中美经贸摩擦出现以来,双方长期保持对话和磋商,美国的对华政策也进入加速调整阶段。40年来中美两国经贸关系的演变始终是反映美国对华政策的晴雨表。鉴于此,本文首先对中美建交40年来经贸关系的变迁进行梳理,分析不同历史时期两国的经贸合作情况,进而探究当前中美经贸摩擦出现的症结及未来发展前景。2016年以来美国对华政策进入了加速调整阶段,中美经贸磋商对美国对华政策的调整具有重要影响,贸易政策背后也折射出美国新的国家战略选择。伴随着中国经济的持续增长和中美两国实力差距的不断缩小,美国愈发倾向于从"相对收益"的角度考量中美经贸关系。展望未来,双方的有效沟通和战略再保证对于中美关系的平稳发展至关重要。     

新时代的中美关系:表层与深层分析

中美关系是当今世界最重要、最复杂的双边关系。中美建交40年的历史经验表明:中美两国合则两利,斗则俱伤。当今世界正处于百年未有之大变局,中美关系也进入了新时代。然而,中美关系不会滑入冷战对抗的陷阱,新时代的中美关系在表层上呈现为战略性竞争,但在深层结构上呈现为一种制度化协调。决定中美关系未来的关键是能否通过制度化的协调与合作来稳定中美关系,推动建立总体稳定、均衡发展的大国关系框架,共同构建竞争与合作并存的中美复合体。     

对中美关系的理性考量和展望

自1971年基辛格访华、1972年尼克松访华,中美关系走过了40年的历程。经过40年的接触、对话、协商、合作、矛盾、分歧、斗争和有时的对抗,中美两国对彼此有了较为充分的了解,建立了一定程度的战略互信,形成了包括可以坦率表达不同、应对不同的相对成熟的关系。冷战后,中美关系具有两面性。一方面,两国间还存在意识形态、社会制度、民主、人权、台湾、涉藏、汇率、知识产权保护、贸易、南海等方面的矛盾分歧,两国内还有一些人对对方存在深深的怀疑甚至敌视,两国关系有时也出现波折;另一方面,中美两国也存在一些共同的利益。中美关系现在和今后最大的使命和挑战就是两国是否能够真正建立对双边关系这一道路、方向和模式的共识,能否在实践上建立这样的关系,两国各界能否正确处理和解决建立这种合作关系所面临的问题、困难和障碍。为了两国长期的利益和民众的意愿,为了亚洲和世界的和平及发展,中美两国应竭尽努力,在21世纪建立和发展"新型大国合作关系"。     

中国、美国与国际伦理——对冷战后人道主义干涉的一项比较研究（1991—1999年）

国际人道主义干涉在冷战结束后的国际关系中占据着突出地位,并引起国际学术界的广泛关注和争论。在人道主义干涉问题上,中美两国在理论和实践两个层面既有严重分歧,但又不乏共识。这是因为中美双方有着不同思想传统、伦理观念、国家利益和政策目标。中美双方的伦理主张和政策实践表明,通过沟通与交流,两国之间在人道主义干涉问题上的分波黑歧会不断减少,共识与合作会不断扩大。     

双周人物

10月28日,五角大楼7年来第一次欢迎来自中国的国防部长曹刚川,此时距离2001年4月中美撞机事件已是两年又半载。 中美军事关系可谓两国政治关系的晴雨表。1996年克林顿政府谋求改善对华关系,其开端就是邀请中国国防部长迟浩田访美。     

中美经济关系中的美国国会因素及其影响

中美两国的经济关系从一开始起就不是一种纯粹的经济关系,它一直受着各种政治因素的影响。两国的经济关系一方面随着政治因素的变化而变化,另一方面两国的经济关系发展又表现出某种超出政治因素影响的独立发展的势头。但是,它在很大程度上仍然受着政治因素的阻碍。本论文的重点意在分析与对华政策和对华经济关系有关的美国国会政治因素及其对中美经济关系的影响。 从总体上说,美国国内政治中有三个基本的力量在中美两国的经济贸易关系中起着     

中美经济关系四大焦点问题分析及消解

世界足够大,容得下中美两国.经济是美国和中国利益的深度联系点,中美经济间焦点问题既凸显两国经济关系在以金融和科技为代表的综合实力方面的差距,又是两国国家利益的交汇之处.因此,从消解中美经济焦点问题人手,在中美经济间建立一个强大、可持续的互利共赢关系对双方都将是一个明智之举,这也将惠泽世界.自1972年以来,中美之间的经济关系蓬勃发展,但目前却受到美国战略重心向亚太转移和中国快速崛起等因素的影响,而且动摇的风险在日益加剧.2012年是中美《上海公报》发表40周年,中美经济关系需要一种新的"公报"来引导双边经济关系的战略框架以确保两国互利共赢关系不受经济争执焦点及公众态度和焦虑变化的干扰.     

Organizing Democracy: How International Organizations Assist New Democracies

Scholars in the environmental security tradition have sought to explicate the links between environmental scarcity (or degradation) and the onset of different forms of political violence and how these are mediated by institutional mechanisms. The Malthusian trap here is not a direct deterministic relationship, but rather a possibility, where environmental scarcity when it coincides with socio-economic processes of rent-seeking and exclusion triggers political conditions ripe for violent struggles. This a priori attention to scarcity as causal mechanism blurs our understanding why violence occurs in some and does not in other places. Our research strategy is therefore different: we study a case of non-violent relations between resource users under conditions of environmental scarcity (due to drought) and political instability and look into the crucial role of local institutions in governing competing resource claims. Our case from the violence-prone Somali Region, Ethiopia analyses how agro-pastoralist communities develop sharing arrangements on pasture resources with intruding pastoralist communities in drought years, even though this places additional pressure on their grazing resource. A household survey investigates the determinants for different households in the agro-pastoralist community, asset-poor and wealthy ones, to enter into different types of sharing arrangements. Our findings suggest that resource sharing offers asset-poor households opportunities to stabilise and enhance their asset-base in drought years, providing incentives for cooperative rather than conflicting relations with intruding pastoralists.     

Islam and the United States: streams of convergence,strands of divergence

This article identifies four historical phases of relations between Islam and the Western world, as led by the United States. The first phase was a convergence of values coinciding with a divergence of empathy. The second phase reversed the order – Islamic and Western values diverged, but intercommunal relations became closer. The third phase is after September 11 when intercommunal relations once again diverged while differences between Western and Islamic values were greater than ever. The futuristic fourth phase of Islam's relations with the U.S.‐led Western world is when the power of the new American Empire is circumscribed, Western values become less libertarian, and Islam reconciles itself to modernity.     

当代国际体系的渐变和嬗变--基于两个三十年的比较与思考

当前国际体系正处于新旧交替和质变飞跃的过渡期,筹划和推动新的国际体系建设是事关国际政治经济发展的重大问题。冷战结束以来三十年的国际体系延续和发展了二战后国际体系的主体框架,处于突变后的渐变过程,世界在“后冷战体系”和“前多极体系”之间探索和徘徊。越来越多的非西方国家在批判过时的国际关系理论,国际社会作为一个整体也在扶正祛邪中不断促进国际体系朝着更加公正、合理的方向前进。未来三十年世界将开启东西方力量相对平衡和世界多极化基本稳定的新时期,这一进程大体上与中国的第二个百年奋斗目标同步推进,国际体系将从后冷战转型期朝着构建新型国际关系和人类命运共同体的方向演进,并最终成熟定型。中国在逐步走近世界舞台中央的历史进程中,应注重加强国际体系理论建设,准确把握国际社会的主要矛盾。解决各自的发展问题和国际社会的共同挑战,对公平正义的普遍需求和供给的相对不足将越来越成为国际社会发展的主要矛盾。中国要着力解答当前和未来的时代命题,勾勒国际体系改革基本架构,进而促进和平、发展、合作、共赢的时代潮流不断向前,推动实现公正、共同富裕的新时代目标。     

A disputed land: Italy,the military inter-allied commission and the plebiscite of Sopron

In the fall of 1918, after over four years of war, the cohesion of Austria-Hungary collapsed. In the aftermath of the Great War, Burgenland (Western Hungary) was part of a pattern of complex territorial issues, though it was actually the smallest disputed territory between Hungary and her successor states. The region became a disputed land after the Allied Supreme Council recommended the transfer of most of it to Austria. The internal crisis in Budapest, the Habsburg restoration attempts and the activities of many militia on the ground led to an extremely dangerous situation. Diplomatic and direct military involvement of the Powers eventually resolved the issue with an agreement providing for a plebiscite on the fate of Sopron and the other smaller towns of the region. At least until 1921 Western Hungary represented an element of destabilization in Europe, while its partition was a significant event in the evolution of relations between the two new states of Hungary and Austria, and a testing ground for European diplomacy. The purpose of this article is to highlight the role of Italy in these complex events and to elucidate the contribution of its military in the formulation of clearer political strategy.     

Poland's foreign policy since 1989: the challenges of independence

In its first decade of post-communist independence, Poland achieved far more than most dared believe in 1989. Despite domestic political and economic turmoil, it has joined Europe as a new member of NATO and a prospective member of the EU. This article traces the evolution of Polish foreign policy since 1989 over four time periods: First, the early uncertainties from 1989 to 1992 when Warsaw — caught between a reunifying Germany and a collapsing USSR — was intent on solidifying its relations with Central European neighbors. Second, the watershed year of 1993, which witnessed changes in every aspect of Poland's external relations — the demise of Visegrad, first moves toward NATO and EU enlargement, the emergence of serious tensions in Warsaw's relations with the East, especially Russia. Third, the years in the anterooms of Europe from 1994 to 1996, when Poland and its central European neighbors lobbied for early accession to the EU and NATO, while relations with Russia remained in the deep freeze. And fourth, the period since 1997, in which Warsaw has been negotiating its “return to Europe”, joining NATO in 1999 and actively pursuing membership in the EU. These gains have not come quickly or easily; rather, they demonstrate a hard earned consistency in Poland's foreign policy agenda, despite numerous changes in domestic politics, as well as an increasingly realistic vision of the country's place in post-Cold War Europe.     

两岸和谐关系演进下的台湾民意走向

大陆对台政策自中共十八大之后，持续并稳定。两岸关系也朝向和平发展。理论上来说，这应该是两岸关系的“机遇期”。意外的是，2008年国民党赢得政权后，在台湾“国族认同”与“统独争议”的议题上，民调数字却显示“台湾人”与“主张独立”的比例，比民进党执政八年的任一时期都来得高。难道两岸关系的改善无助于台湾内部走向于分离的转变？作者设法去解读这个怪异现象时发现：冈为民调中有问券设计的吊谛．与解读角序的不同．球让结果耕有所不同．     

两岸关系和平发展重要思想初探

两岸关系进入和平发展阶段，虽尚处于初级阶段，但其发展的难以逆转趋势已成为普遍的共识。尽管如此，由于海峡两岸历经冲突、对峙、隔绝乃至有外力介入的长期历史，未来的两岸关系仍有可能出现曲折、复杂的态势。当此之时，加深对两岸关系和平发展重要思想形成的背景、理论意义认识并清醒地面对有可能出现的种种挑战，有助于巩固两岸关系和平发展局面并推动其深入发展。     

当前两岸经济关系发展中的结构性难题与纾解路径

近年来两岸经济合作取得重大进展，但也存在难以纾解的结构性矛盾，而这些结构性难题的产生并非单纯的经济问题，上层建筑对生产力的制约已成为当前两岸经济关系的主要矛盾。因而，纾解之道也不能就经济论经济，应究其根源，从多维度、多层面去思考推动两岸经济关系发展的治本之策。     

DIVERSITY AND DOMINANCE IN THE ARCTIC. ETHNIC RELATIONS IN THE GREENLANDIC BUREAUCRACY

Public bureaucracies are increasingly characterized by employee diversity in terms of ethnicity. Investigating relations between ethnic groups in bureaucracies is therefore important. This article focuses on the particularly interesting case of the Greenlandic administration. Being a former Danish colony, Greenland still recruits bureaucrats from mainland Denmark. These work alongside locally hired employees resulting in an administration with different ethnicities, cultures and languages. The analysis of ethnic relations is based on 28 interviews with bureaucrats of Danish and Greenlandic origin. Even though overall relations are found to be largely harmonious, ethnicity makes a difference. Interviewees describe differences in ethnic traits and behaviour and processes of social categorization. Particularly among Greenlanders, Danes are described as dominant and this dominance is reinforced by co‐variation between ethnicity, language skills and education. Finally, inter‐group relations are found to vary with the numerical balance of ethnic groups in different parts of the bureaucracy.     

及笄与志学——中国女性主义国际关系研究

中国的女性主义国际关系研究已超过15年。该学派起始于中国学者自发的研究,但更多体现的是自觉引进西方研究成果并将其中国化的努力。女性主义国际关系研究在中国发展的过程分为三个阶段,在2006年达到高峰后进入平稳发展阶段。整体而言,这一学派生产出一系列学术成果,建立起重要的研究机构,正在缓慢平稳地前进,并已体现出自己的独特性。中国女性主义国际关系研究的创新需要立足于中国特定的时间和空间,强调实践中国特色、多轨跟进、跨界合作,在日常生活和国际关系之间建立更为密切的联系。