中国"入世"与政治赢利

"入世"对中国政治领域将产生深刻影响,应当把政治赢利视为中国加入WTO的长远战略目标.从政治层面上说,中国"入世"后必须站在国家政治安全的高度,在争取经济赢利的同时,通过理论创新和政治体制改革等一系列战略选择,构筑起趋利避害的政治防线.     

Domestic Openness in post-WTO China: central and local perspectives

This article seeks answers to three basic questions about the WTO's impact on domestic openness in China: is China a more open society as a result of its WTO membership; in what way has the WTO affected reform and openness; and, is WTO membership leading to political liberalization or translating into a demand for democracy as democracy advocates predicted? To this end, it identifies and analyzes the WTO-related reforms at central and local levels which have had the strongest impact thus far on openness to Chinese citizens. The analysis focuses on the reduction of the Party-state's control of economic activity as manifested in decreasing state monopoly and bureaucratic intervention in the sphere of economic activity, improved legal regulation, and increasing transparency of trade-related rules and rule-making. It argues that the varied depth and scope of the WTO's impact are attributable to differences in the congruence between the WTO principles and China's domestic political logic and the varying levels of effectiveness of external and internal pressure for change.     

The Social and Political Implications of China's WTO Membership

China will join the WTO soon. This article does not question the rationale of China's decision to join the WTO; nor does it challenge the premise that, all in all, the potential benefits from WTO membership outweigh the potential costs, at least in the long term. Rather, it focuses on the social and political implications of China's WTO membership. It is assumed that even if WTO membership is potentially a productivity-enhancing move for China, the benefits and costs of such a change will not be evenly distributed. Unless there is a mechanism that can induce or force the winners to compensate the losers, distributive conflicts between the two groups will be inevitable. Such conflicts may weaken or even erode political support for globalization. Thus, to remain committed to globalization, the government of an open economy must play a role in redistributing gains and costs. The first section elaborates this analytical framework. The second section argues that Chinese reforms have changed from a win‐win game to a zero-sum game. As a result, China has turned itself from a relatively egalitarian society into one with huge and growing inequalities. The third section analyzes who will stand to win and lose when China joins the WTO. It predicts that precisely those social groups who have borne the costs of recent reforms will be hit hardest. More significantly, those losers happen to be the social groups that have long served as the political bases of the communist regime. WTO membership thus poses a challenge to the legitimacy of the Chinese government. The final section discusses the political implications of China's WTO membership.     

The Rise of Neoclassical Economics and China's WTO Agreement with the United States in 1999

Drawing on the historical institutionalists’ emphasis on the effects of ideas on policy making, this paper focuses on the importance of economic ideas and ideologies on China's trade policy making with regard to the signing of the WTO agreement with the United States in 1999. The paper argues that trade liberalization in China was a result of top Chinese leaders’ embrace of neoclassical economic ideas which conceive a small role for the state in the marketplace, mainly as the regulator of the macro-economic environment and as the enforcer of the rule of law, rather than as a major player in the marketplace. Top Chinese leaders’ socialization with neoclassical economic ideas enabled them to forge a political consensus to link state-owned enterprise (SOE) reforms with speedy WTO accession and led to China's major concessions in WTO negotiations with the United States in 1999 which were inconceivable just a few years ago.     

WTO and China's Financial Services Sector

Financial services, particularly securities markets, insurance and commercial banking, have played a crucial role in China's post-1978 economic reforms. China has so far established a market structure and a legal framework, and has a growing understanding of how financial services operate in the modern world economy. We will review China's progress in financial services reforms over the last 22 years, describe the commitments China has made to gain WTO entrance, and then evaluate the potential benefits and costs to China's financial sector of WTO accession. We conclude that even with the substantial challenges presented by greatly increased post-WTO foreign competition, China will benefit from the WTO because of a number of factors including a growing pool of well-trained personnel, lessons learned from domestic and foreign development experiences, increasing Chinese economic strength, and continual advancement of China's financial infrastructure.     

China after Deng: Some perspectives∗

Deng Xiaoping's succession arrangement is different from the typical practice of the supreme leader of a dictatorship. Instead of occupying the highest leadership position himself until his death, Deng has let his “successor” assume office as the supreme leader while he is still alive and influential. Such an arrangement will help avoid a succession crisis and political upheavals upon Deng's death. In addition, the current market‐oriented economic reforms are very unlikely to be reversed in post‐Deng's China because of four factors: (1) public support of the reforms; (2) the vested interest of the “prince party” in the reforms; (3) the new leadership's commitment to the reforms; and (4) the constitutionalization of the reforms. However, there are three major sources of social unrest, which may lead to some political turbulence in the post‐Deng period. These sources are the “June 4th Incident” of 1989, public demand for an end of corruption and for political liberalization, and some socio‐economic problems brought about by the on‐going economic reforms. Although there will be periodical events of socio‐political turbulence, they are unlikely to drag China into a long period of instability or lead to a split of the nation.     

The political economy of banking reforms in China, 1993–1997

The weakness of China's banking system poses a serious threat to the sustainability of the country's economic development. This article measures the extent of this weakness and analyzes its causes. It focuses especially on the structural changes in the banking sector, the economic crisis of 1992–1993, and the subsequent financial reforms implemented. The evidence gathered by the author shows that the banking reforms initiated since 1994 have produced mixed results. Although central bank autonomy and bank supervision have improved, political, economic, and institutional constraints have prevented the government from taking more decisive measures to re‐capitalize banks, restructure the debt of state‐owned enterprises, and increase competition in the banking sector quickly. Despite the apparent effectiveness of the short‐term measures taken to bolster public confidence in the banking system, China's banking reform will be a difficult and prolonged process.     

Agency and fiscal dependence in central‐provincial relations in China

The incremental decentralization of economic and fiscal authority within the Chinese state has led to a debate over the extent to which the central government retains authoritative control over the provinces. Using detailed budgetary data, this paper argues that even though fiscal reforms may have given provincial governments independent sources of income, they remain dependent upon the center for budgetary subsidies and that without central subsidies provincial government would face serious budgetary shortfalls. This is true not only for provinces that receive more in central subsidies than they transfer to the center, but also for provinces that were net exporters of funds to the center prior to the 1994 fiscal reforms. Fiscal dependence is important because it gives the center a source of leverage that supplements the political leverage it gains from the nomenklatura system, allowing it to not only punish insubordinate provincial leaders as individuals, but to also punish recalcitrant provincial governments as institutions by either cutting or withholding budgetary subsidies.     

US–China Relations in the Era of Globalization and Terror: a framework for analysis

The coming decade could provide the opportunity for the United States to consolidate stable Sino–American relations and expand US–China cooperation on a wide range of global and regional issues. Such a constructive relationship would not be conflict-free or without competitive aspects, especially in the political and economic realms, nor is its development inevitable. But the United States is not likely to conclude that a strategy of containment toward China is either necessary or feasible. Similarly, China will likely continue to pursue a strategy of seeking cooperative ties with the United States rather than adopting an anti-hegemonist coalition strategy to counter American power and influence. A key factor underlying this assessment is that ‘globalization’ is reshaping the global strategic environment. In this new strategic situation, the interests of the United States and China will limit strategic competition between them and compel closer cooperation to respond to shared strategic threats and challenges. Globalization has led to converging—though by no means identical—national interests in many critical areas and a common interest in maintaining the overall global system of regimes, treaties and organizations governing international economic, political and security relations to the benefit of both countries. This high-level common interest does not preclude sharp differences over specific issues, but it is likely to create pressure on the United States and China to cooperate in many areas to defend, maintain and strengthen the system and to restrain them from pursuing containment or confrontational strategies toward each other.     

Reform ideology,political commitment and resource transfor: An alternative model for the explanation of China's economic reform∗

One of the most intriguing ironies of our era is the result of recent changes in the former communist world. Whereas the “democratizing” Russia and Eastern European countries are caught in repeated political as well as economic crises, the “unrepentant” authoritarian China and Vietnam are seeing their economies booming and more market‐oriented. Such an irony poses many important questions. One of the questions is how China has managed to get where it is. This paper represents an attempt to address this question. Firstly, it will briefly outline where economic reforms have brought China so far. Secondly, it will discuss two popular models used to explain China's economic performance. And finally, it will develop an alternative model that combines politics and economy in accounting for China's reform experience.     

WT0的理解与经济法改革

中国加入WTO,无论是对国际经济秩序还是国内经济秩序的发展都是一件重大事件。加入WTO要用尽WTO的权利才能尽最大可能促进我国的社会主义市场化改革的进行。而应对WTO挑战和抓住机遇的基础是对WTO有一个正确的认识。本文分析了对WTO的认识及国内经济法改革的必要性,并提出了相应的对策。     

Securing Economic Relations Across the Taiwan Straits: New challenges and opportunities

Cross-Taiwan Straits economic interaction is a political as well as an economic issue. General trends of economic interdependence and globalization that are weakening the role of the nation state should promote a focus of shared 'civilian governance' between Taiwan and mainland China. WTO entry will provide opportunities as well as challenges for cross-Strait economic relations. In anticipation of this dynamic, the new government in Taiwan is attempting to design a new national security web to guarantee Taiwan's 'economic security' in coping with Taiwan's increasing economic dependence on mainland China. As one key agent of globalization, economic cooperation in the urban areas on both sides of the Taiwan Strait may potentially improve relations between Taiwan and mainland China. As decentralization and privatization on mainland China proceed, major cities have developed closer interaction and systems of accountability with the civil society. From a prudent perspective, developing functional cooperation between Taiwan and mainland China at the urban level could be a first substantial step to confidence building between these two economies.     

Chinese Corporate Governance and Prospects for Reform

A critical element in China's current economic reform program is the creation of modern corporate governance structures in its corporations. Many of China's largest firms are caught between market incentives and political pressures, creating a situation ripe for managerial inefficiency. This article examines the financial and regulatory structures necessary for an efficient corporate governance system to function in China, and it assesses how these structures currently operate in the economy. The article identifies key failures in fostering modern corporate governance practices, which in turn jeopardize central elements of the government's reform program. The article includes a case study of the governance practices of PetroChina Company Ltd, the internationally listed subsidiary of China National Petroleum Corporation. The success or failure of the government's efforts to create proper governance mechanisms will carry important economic and political ramifications for China. Indeed, the successful implementation of corporate governance reforms may mark the final stages of China's evolution into a market economy.     

China's reforms in Tibet: Issues and dilemmas∗

Since the visit of Hu Yaobang to Tibet in 1980, which precipitated a series of changes in China's policies toward Tibet, the following years have been marked by China's reforms in Tibet, considered by many highly controversial. In general terms, living standards rose, and economic reforms and political liberalization achieved what appeared to be a remarkable success. Yet, at the height of the period, in 1987, the reforms, instead of enhancing Tibetan loyalty to China, precipitated demonstrations in Lhasa on a scale never before seen by the outside world. The demonstrations indicated the general failure of the reforms.

Some scholars argue that the reforms are highly successful and that the demonstrations and the instability in their wake are the result of outside instigation rather than rooted in the reforms themselves. This paper argues that the failure of the reforms is due to a far more complex set of circumstances that are the result of the historical legacy, the nature of the reforms themselves, and the instability of political process in Beijing. This paper examines the reforms, their implementation, and their failure in the economic, political, and social arenas to gain a deeper understanding of the complexity of the environment in which China instituted the reforms in Tibet and to investigate the underlying reasons for the unrest. The paper argues that the problems in Tibet are far beyond the creation of outside “instigators” and far beyond the capacity of the reforms to solve.     

Understanding the New Rural Co-operative Movement: towards rebuilding civil society in China

Along with the emergence of the ‘three rural issues’ and rural crisis, a new co-operative movement has been witnessed in rural China, which is different from the former revolutionary communalist co-operative movement. This social movement can help to understand and rebuild civil society in China, which has, more often than not, been criticized as not genuine, civil nor society-based. Following the debate's background of the juxtaposition of a fast economic reform together with slow social and political reforms in China, the paper addresses a crucial question on the impact of economic development on civil society dynamics in China. By identifying the causal mechanisms of the new co-operative development and the conditions needed for them to develop, the paper presents some implications of the co-operative model in today's society. These causal mechanisms are set within the context of one historical process evolving with a path dependency. Using this theoretical framework, it further presents the empirical observations. Through the findings it is concluded that the new co-operative movement in rural China can be considered as a mild liberalization within civil society's sphere. While questioning a popularly used perspective examining the voluntary/non-profit nature of civil society organizations and excluding the economic aspect within civil society studies in China, the paper suggests an alternative approach representing an inclusive third sector with diverse organizations that combine both economic and social aims.     

The Role of a Political Interest Group in Democratization of China and Hong Kong: the Hong Kong Alliance in Support of Patriotic Democratic Movements of China

The Hong Kong Alliance in Support of Patriotic Democratic Movements of China (HKASPDM) is a cross-border political interest group advocating for democratization in both mainland China and Hong Kong. It was involved in the bold rescue of mainland democrats out of the PRC shortly after the June 1989 Tiananmen crackdown; it constantly exerts pressure on the PRC government to release its political prisoners; it has been influencing the Hong Kong government on the scope and pace of democratization; it communicates with and subsidizes overseas Chinese groups supportive of democratic reforms in China; it is persistently educating the younger generations of Hong Kong and most importantly mainland visitors to Hong Kong on the 1989 Tiananmen tragedy; and its supporters have attempted to cross the border of Hong Kong to Macao to influence the policy of the Chinese government toward political prisoners. As a political interest group based in Hong Kong with cross-border influences on both the mainland and Macao, the Alliance has been making full use of the available political space and freedom of assembly in Hong Kong to achieve their ultimate objective of having a ‘democratic China’. Its existence in the HKSAR is an indication of a certain degree of political tolerance by both the Hong Kong government and Beijing, which have to be very careful of the need to maintain an image of the feasible formula of ‘one country, two systems’ in Hong Kong.     

Economic reform,social change,and illegal Chinese emigrants

Focusing on current human smuggling operations in China, this article analyzes and attempts to explain the background of illegal Chinese emigrant activities. It argues that, contrary to the common representation of these illegal emigrants as hopeless, destitute people who have no choice but to flee from their country, in truth many are young people driven by restlessness and ambition, from various social origins. Recent political, economic, and social reforms within China provide those dreaming of a better life in foreign countries the opportunity to leave.     

试论深化审判体制改革

深化审判体制改革是全球经济发展和我国入世形势的要求。鉴于目前审判体制改革中尚存在较多问题,有必要通过分析研究,找出进一步深化审判体制改革的方法,以期推动我国审判体制改革的发展和完善。     

新时期转变政府职能的经验与途径——WTO规则对转变政府职能的启示

我国入世4年,已跃居为世界第三贸易大国。但我国政府在履行入世承诺的同时,尚需借助WTO之推动力,主动转变政府职能,力求经济体制和行政体制改革两相提升。文章结合新时期的工作和任务,在对WTO关于政府义务的规则作分析后,认为应该借助WTO规则推动我国政府职能继续转变。     

China and Asian regionalism: Challenge and policy choice

Regionalism has become an interesting phenomenon in Asian international relations. Driven by fast growing trade and investment, Asian countries have developed variegated patterns of economic co‐operation and a complex level of interdependence among themselves. Although the growing Asian regionalism is very much an economics‐driven process, it has profound impacts on regional political organization. This analysis examines Beijing's changing attitudes toward Asian regionalism and its policy choice in the regional economic integration. It is argued that the integration of the Chinese economy into the regional structure is promoted by the government as well as driven by market dynamics. Although Beijing has let the Chinese economy develop into the regional ‘flying geese’ structure, the best policy choice for China, as many Chinese scholars have argued, would be a three‐circle strategy of integrating into the world economy and a strategy of ‘market for technology’ in regional economic co‐operation. This analysis also discusses the regional political obstacles impeding co‐operation across national borders. It is argued that healthy bilateral relations and more political will toward regional multilateralism on political issues would be instrumental for future regional prosperity and stablity in Asia.