知识性与学术性的有机统一——评《列国志·肯尼亚》一书

肯尼亚是一个赤道高原国家,素有"东非美丽花园"之称.可是从2007年12月肯尼亚大选起,国内对立的两大阵营大打口水仗,发生群众性冲突,暴力事件不断.在长达4个多月的政治动乱中,肯尼亚约有30万人流离失所,数千无辜民众伤亡.非盟、联合国等地区和国际组织都出面调解,前联合国秘书长安南亲抵内罗毕斡旋.中外媒体大量追踪报导,一时间肯尼亚成为人们关注的焦点.     

尼联合政府执政以来的政绩

尼联合政府执政以来的政绩刘善国尼泊尔大会党自１９９５年９月领导联合政府以来，政绩比较明显。一、政局趋于稳定１９９５年９月，尼泊尔大会党、全国民主党和尼泊尔亲善党组成联合政府以来，积极采取措施稳定政局，收效较为明显。为确保三党联合执政的稳定，政府还扩充...     

意大利新总理恩里科·莱塔

2013年4月28日,意大利议会选举结果揭晓两个月后,新一届政府终于组成,它是意大利1947年以来第一个"大联合"政府,由中左翼的民主党副书记恩里科·莱塔(Enrico Letta)任总理,中右翼的自由人民党书记安杰利诺·阿尔法诺任副总理。莱塔出任大联合政府总理是意大利各政治势力相互争斗、妥协的结果。     

浅析德国大联合政府的内外政策

默克尔夫人领导的德国大联合政府上台一年来,多年的低迷经济开始复苏,各项改革措施前景看好;外交上更趋务实,大国关系全面示好,在欧盟中的作用进一步突出。然而,执政伙伴能否长期共事、各项改革措施的实际效果如何,将是对大联合政府的直接考验。     

论中美经贸关系及其走向--兼驳中国"经济威胁论"

中美经贸关系是世界上发展最快、规模最大的双边经贸关系之一,已形成相互依存深、互利双赢大的关系格局.美国散布"中国经济威胁论"和对华施压,既有悖于事实,又违背双方利益,是行不通的.双方只有通过平等协商解决争端,才能推动两国经贸关系持续向上发展.     

论斯大林在东欧推行的联合政府政策(1944—1948)

第二次世界大战结束前后,为维护通过战争获取的胜利果实,斯大林奉行大国合作战略。在围绕被解放欧洲国家未来命运问题的一系列国际会议上,斯大林以许诺"自由选举"换取了英美对苏联提出的"联合政府"建议的赞同。反法西斯大国合作是联合政府体制存在外部条件,在当时的历史条件下,斯大林把人民民主制度看成是长期的当时还未用尽其积极潜力的模式。     

泰国新总理他信·西那瓦及其内外政策

今年1月6日,泰国"电脑大王"他信·西那瓦(Thaksin Shinawatra)创建的"泰人爱泰人党"(简称泰爱泰党)在全国大选中获得众院500席中的248席,以明显优势取胜。2月9日他信又在众院中以324票赞成的高票当选泰国总理。目前泰爱泰党已与新希望党、泰国党组成联合政府,并完成内阁组建工作,开始落实一系列内外政策。尽管联合政府在国会中占绝对优势,地位较为巩固,但它目前仍面临一系列严峻挑战,今后泰国政局的走向仍令人关注。     

肯尼亚旅游业发展探析

肯尼亚独立后,旅游业经历了初创、发展、调整和振兴4个阶段.在40多年的发展历程中,肯尼亚旅游业形成了旅游产品以观赏野生动物为主、旅游发展模式先国际后国内、客源国较为集中和力推生态旅游等特色.旅游业不仅给肯尼亚创收经济发展急需的大量外汇,为失业严重的社会提供大量就业岗位,改善当地居民的生活,而且在客观上优化肯尼亚的经济结构,促进经济发展.旅游业之所以在肯尼亚获得成功,主要得益于国内政局长期较稳定、政府的积极推动和坚持走有特色的经营之路.肯尼亚发展旅游之路,不仅对于非洲国家,而且对于广大其他发展中国家,都有借鉴作用.     

俄罗斯参与东南亚基础设施建设的前景及对欧亚大陆的意义

俄罗斯官方于2016年正式提出建立"大欧亚伙伴关系",该倡议的重要组成部分之一是强化与东盟合作.俄罗斯与东盟的合作基础薄弱,跨越千山万水到东南亚开展基础设施建设更是不易,但双方合作的潜力是巨大的.俄罗斯方面,东盟是其大欧亚伙伴关系中不可或缺的一环,双方长期以来保持着比较友好的关系.同时,东南亚战略地位极其重要,不容域外势力所分化.东盟方面,其多元的对话平台致力于与各方开展建设性合作且能够顾及利益平衡,但长期受困于基础设施落后及各成员国发展水平不均等问题.因此,俄罗斯参与东南亚能源、交通和数字技术等领域的基础设施建设,不仅具备自身优势,还具有被当地所接纳的巨大空间.此外,欧亚大陆东部蓬勃的发展态势和"一带一路"建设也为双方在这方面开展合作提供了良好的机遇.     

对当前中美冲突的现实主义解读

韩国的"天安号"舰艇爆炸导致朝鲜半岛局势紧张,引发了中美之间的直接冲突.美国出动了包括"华盛顿"号核动力航空母舰在内的重兵与日本、韩国、越南等在中国沿海附近频频举行联合军事演习,美方给出的理由是防止来自朝鲜的攻击,但事实上明显针对中国.中国人民解放军对此不可能不做出反应.中美之间的冲突大有升级之势.但事实上,中美双方的决策者都明白,冲突、对峙、冷战乃至热战并不符合中美双方的根本利益,双方目前都有所克制,中美之间的冲突目前还没有超出"安全困境"的范围.     

Aleksandr Dugin and the ideology of national revival: Geopolitics,Eurasianism and the conservative revolution

This article examines the emergence of Aleksandr Dugin as the leader of the Eurasian Movement and later Party in Russia. For much of the 1990s Dugin was a prominent intellectual among the Russian nationalist‐communist opposition, moving from the position of ideologue of a fringe political party ‐ Edvard Limonov's National Bolsheviks — to advisor to the communist speaker of the State Duma, Gennadiy Seleznev. Dugin's ideology combined an anti‐Western interpretation of geopolitics with mysticism, Aryanism, conspirology, authoritarian statism and Eurasianism. Dugin's expanding set of Internet sites became an ideological empire of a virtual society. In 1999, in the aftermath of the NATO intervention in Yugoslavia, Dugin saw an opportunity to move from the marginal opposition to the ideologue of the post‐Yeltsin president. In this capacity, Dugin and his Eurasian Movement emerged as prominent supporters of Vladimir Putin, whom Dugin identified as the embodiment of the ‘Eurasian capitalist’ model of statist development. Dugin developed a close working relationship with Gleb Pavlovsky, a spin doctor for Putin's Kremlin. In the aftermath of 11 September and Putin's move towards supporting the United States in the war on terrorism, Dugin has continued his nominal support for the president, even as he has criticized his pro‐Western policies as anti‐Eurasian and a threat to Russian interests.     

野田佳彦内阁及其内政外交政策走向

野田以往的政治风格具有明显的“鹰派”特征，此次却以自比“泥鳅”击败对手而当选和组阁，足见当下日本政坛亟需执政党内抚平嫌隙、党外合作对冲的政治格局。外交上，野田会继续强调日美同盟和奉行“拉美抗华”的基本政策，但近些年日本领导人频繁更迭已大大影响美日之间的机制性对话，而对华政策是其外交成败的关键，周边外交可能会引起亚洲各国的警惕；国内经济问题堆积如山，不可能轻易取得解决；朝野政党为争私利的恶斗不会平息，将会招致越来越多国民的反感。     

Appreciating the Movement of the Movements

This review essay surveys the theoretical insights emerging from within the Global Justice and Solidarity Movement, also known as the Anti-Globalisation Movement, or the Movement of the Movements, and also reviews the literature focused on this phenomenon by those closely involved, as well as other observers. The central concern is to understand the nature and significance of the Movement of the Movements as it operates across local, national, and global boundaries, and to consider its capacity to represent and mobilise the many millions worldwide who stand to gain little or nothing, but may lose a great deal, from neo-liberal globalisation.     

Marching Down the Garvaghy Road: Republican Tactics and State Response to the Orangemen's Claim to March their Traditional Route Home after the Drumcree Church Service

This study outlines the background and circumstances of the dispute over the Orange Order's claim to the right to parade down the Garvaghy Road after their annual Drumcree church service. This dispute has soured community relations in Northern Ireland and caused deep embarrassment to the British government, Unionists and many other groups for over five years now. However, it is the analysis of this article that such embarrassment and bad community relations was the desired outcome for one of the major participants in the dispute, the Republicans. It is argued that they deliberately set about conducting protests against Orange parades in the most confrontational manner possible. Their aim was to create a substitute for bombs and guns, an ongoing form of violence which they could use for political advantage during the talks known as the peace process. Whilst there is undoubtedly a long-established degree of nationalist resentment against the Orange Order on which Republicans were able to play, the open confrontations on the Garvaghy Road in recent years took much deliberate manipulation to become the violent clashes of today. The dispute is thus an example of terrorist tactics in which conventional terrorist violence is replaced by street violence. It is also an example of a case in which a weak and uncomprehending state made matters worse by trying to bargain with the perpetrators of violence.     

晚清维新派与日本志士精神

晚清知识分子歌吟赞颂的侠客,不仅是司马迁在《游侠列传》与《刺客列传》中所描绘的人物,而且包括许多日本幕末维新志士,两者往往以同一精神面貌出现。日本志士的侠义形象源于黄遵宪的描绘,后被唐才常、谭嗣同、康有为、梁启超等维新派知识分子继承与吸收。这种精神不仅极大地推动了戊戌维新运动,而且成为梁启超流亡日本后以＂日本魂＂塑造中国＂国魂＂的重要思想土壤。     

老挝:2011年发展回顾与2012年展望

2011年,是老挝人民革命党第九次全国代表大会召开及国会、政府换届选举年；“七·五”经济社会计划开局良好,尽管遭遇较严重的风灾洪涝,经济增长仍达8.1％,脱贫取得重要成果；外交活跃务实,获得了大量外援与投资；2012年底,老挝将主办第九届亚欧领导人峰会.     

义和团运动时日俄两国对中国的侵略

爆发于19世纪末的义和团运动是帝国主义对中国侵略不断加深的结果。在八国联军联合镇压义和团运动的过程中,中国的两个近邻日本与俄国充当了主力。日本与俄国不仅出重兵参预镇压义和团运动,俄国还趁机出兵占领东北,日本则出兵厦门、欲占福建。两个恶邻之所以能够找到借口,并能在中国的土地上为所欲为,除了它们本身已成为列强中的一员,其国力比中国强大之外,更为关键的恐怕还是中国本身的软弱。虽然时过境迁,但总结历史经验,牢记历史教训,发扬自强自省精神,仍是大有意义的。     

“The Movement Moves Against you”: Coercive Spoiler Management in the Northern Ireland Peace Process

More than a decade on, the Northern Ireland peace process can largely be considered a success. Despite the failure of the Provisional Republican Movement to achieve a united Ireland free of British control, the large-scale violence of “The Troubles” has been relegated to the past. Applying the logic of coercive diplomacy, this study examines the role of threats and the use of selective and limited violence by the Provisional Movement to manage real and potential opponents and challengers that have emerged within its own ideological ranks to maintain its position of dominance and prevent a spoiling of the peace process. This study shows that the Provisional Movement retained the capability to employ violence and demonstrated the credibility of coercive threat through a willingness to use force against its opponents on the Republican spectrum, and was able to do so with a high degree of impunity.     

副鸡嗜血杆菌B型分离株免疫原性的比较和疫苗株的筛选

利用分离自我国不同地区的3株B型副鸡嗜血杆菌菌株及0222标准株分别制作油乳剂灭活疫苗免疫无鸡传染性鼻炎病史的鸡群,通过攻毒保护试验和HI抗体测定,分析比较了其免疫原性,以筛选适用于制备疫苗的菌株。结果表明:不同地区的分离株在致病性和免疫原性上存在一定的差异,TJ-1株疫苗免疫鸡对TJ-1和DL-1株的保护作用可达90%和91.7%,对BJ-1株的保护率为63.6%,具有相对较好的保护作用,目前可以作为疫苗株使用。在各免疫组试验鸡中,0222株和BJ-1株免疫鸡群的血清抗体水平较高,但这可能与血凝抑制试验所采用的抗原是由0222株制备的及BJ-1株在抗原性上可能更接近于0222株有关。DL-1和TJ-1株疫苗免疫鸡的抗体水平都很低,但其免疫保护却要强于0222和BJ-1株疫苗免疫鸡。由此说明B型株因菌株之间免疫原性的差异使得HI抗原的选择难度增加。     

Capture the flag: local factionalism as electoral mobilization in dominant party Uganda

ABSTRACT

This article addresses a question relevant to many non-democratic regimes: how can a successful dominant party be an institutionally weak one? President Yoweri Museveni and his National Resistance Movement (NRM) have dominated Ugandan politics since coming to power in 1986. However, the NRM does not possess many of the institutional endowments that other dominant parties use to control mass and elite politics, such as central control of candidate selection, autonomous mobilizing structures, or dispensation of sufficient political finance to its candidates. Instead, the party secretariat has no real institutional power independent of the personalist Museveni regime, and its local branches house fierce internal competition each election in which most incumbents lose office. This article argues that the NRM mobilizes so well for Museveni despite its institutional deficits due to the precise nature of the competitive process its local elites go through to win its nomination (or “flag”) and the subsequent general election. This process sees self-organized and self-financed candidates and their factions rejuvenate the party and mobilize votes for the concurrent presidential election as a by-product of their competition with one another. The article makes this argument with qualitative data from three districts gathered during the 2016 elections.