Consensus Decisions and Similarity Measures in International Organizations

Voting behavior in international organizations, most notably in the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA), is often used to infer the similarity of foreign policy preferences of member states. Most of these measures ignore, however, that particular covoting patterns may appear simply by chance (Häge 2011) and that these patterns of agreement (or the absence thereof) are only observable if decisions are reached through roll-call votes. As the relative frequency of roll-call votes changes considerably over time in most international organizations, currently used similarity and affinity measures offer a misleading picture. Based on a complete data set of UNGA resolution decisions, we demonstrate how taking different forms of chance agreement and the relative prevalence of consensus decisions into account affects conclusions about the effect of the similarity of member states’ foreign policy positions on foreign aid allocation.     

评上海合作组织与独联体集体安全条约组织之间的关系

上合组织与集安组织都是以维护地区安全为主要目的的地区性国际组织,两者的成员和功能有很高的重合度。这两个组织进行合作可以更好地维护地区安全,但同时也会对上合以及上合成员国的对外关系提出挑战。目前集安组织与上合已经有了初步的合作,今后双方会有更多的合作机会。     

How China’s New Silk Road Threatens European Trade

For all the promises of mutually beneficial cooperation, Chinese policy documents about the New Silk Road, also called ‘One Belt, One Road’, mostly testify to a strong ambition to unlock foreign markets and support domestic firms in taking on foreign competitors. This confirms China’s shift from defensive mercantilism, which aims to protect the home market, towards offensive mercantilism, which seeks to gain market shares abroad. In a context of global economic stagnation, this comes as a major challenge to Europe. As China’s market share grows spectacularly in countries along the New Silk Road, key European member states have both lost market shares and even seen their exports shrink in absolute terms.     

试析文莱对外关系的特点

1984年1月1日独立后,文莱从本国实际出发,积极利用各种有利条件发展对外关系。在政治交往中,广泛参与各种国际组织和地区性组织,发展与世界各国的友好关系;在经济层面上,利用本国的资源优势扩大与世界各国的经济往来;同时加强与穆斯林世界的友好交往,从而在国际交往中获得主动,维护国家利益。     

加强民间交流 促进中国－东盟政治互信

本文论述中国与东盟的关系，着重论述了中国与东盟加强民间交流对促进中国与东盟政治互信的作用。认为只要东盟非政府组织、学术界、智库网络与中国方面的平行和互补作用得到加强，官民之间以及民间在文化、历史、政治和安全、经济等关键领域的联系更加密切，中国与东盟的民间外交轨道将朝着纵深延伸。     

旁观者的管见——浅议与俄罗斯的文化交流战略

确立我国对俄罗斯的文化交流战略具有紧迫性 ,制定并实施积极的、全方位的对俄罗斯的文化交流战略必须提到高层领导的议事日程。对俄罗斯的文化交流战略可以描述为 :以传统文化为依托 ,以宣传改革开放的成绩为重点 ,以中国文化基金会为支撑 ,以文化中心为载体 ,以俄罗斯青少年为主要对象 ,以双边文化学术交流为纽带 ,全方位、多层次、多形式地展开对俄罗斯的文化交流。     

EU assistance for civil society in Kosovo: a step too far for democracy promotion?

EU assistance for Kosovo is the most ambitious external relations venture embarked upon by the Commission to date. Not surprisingly, much of the aid is framed in terms of ‘civil society’ and channelled through a handful of local non-governmental organizations (NGOs). But attempts by foreign donors to promote civil society exogenously across post-socialist Eurasia are deemed to have achieved little in terms of stimulating individual participation and civic engagement. In response the EU appears to have refined its approach by combining the usual support for larger NGOs with more basic assistance for grassroots networks and community-based initiatives. Whilst such a twin-track strategy is arguably appropriate in the context of Kosovo where civil society participation is particularly low, in terms of maximizing the critical development of transactional capacity the approach may fail to target resources most effectively. It is argued here that there is a danger that normative concerns about liberal pluralism, enriching civil society and ensuring that assistance is widely dispersed may ultimately detract from the imperative of deploying limited resources first and foremost to secure a core of sustainable NGOs with developed capacity to engage government, the international community and other non-state actors in the process of policy reform. Indeed, drawing on the experience of civil society assistance in new member states of Central and Eastern Europe, it would seem that although NGOs are often criticized for their detachment from community organizations and campaigns, they perform a critical ‘behind the scenes’ role in policy change and state transformation. They can, if donor funding is appropriately targeted, facilitate the emergence of civil society networks through which small community organizations are then linked with larger, established and capacity-endowed organizations.     

Nationalist Sources of International Economic Integration

Most scholars of international relations and nationalism presume that nationalist ideology acts uniformly to hinder international economic integration, globalization, and free trade. This article challenges the conventional wisdom by developing an analytical framework of the incentives majority and minority nationalists face in the realm of foreign economic relations. Defining nationalism as the promotion of the autonomy, unity, and identity of the nation, it argues that nationalists have strong possible motivations both for and against close economic ties with foreign nations and states. As a result, oftentimes nationalists must make trade-offs among their goals of autonomy, unity, and identity when developing foreign economic policy preferences. Case studies of nationalist organizations in Quebec, India, and Ukraine that favor a high degree of international economic integration are presented to show the usefulness of the analytical framework.     

略述中国与东南亚文化交流史中的几个重要方面

文化交流史是中国与东南亚关系史中的重要部分。本文对中国与东南亚文化交流史中的几个重要方面进行了论述．以体现中国与东南亚文化交流的丰富性与重要性。     

古代中韩文化交流探析

古代中韩文化交流源远流长,对双方的政治、经济、军事、文化教育、文学艺术、体育娱乐乃至日常习俗等各领域,都产生过深刻的影响,形成了很多相似的文化传统。在今后的文化交流中,中韩两国既要保持本民族文化的独特性,也要相互尊重对方国家的独特性,扩大双方的共同性。     

Does Membership on the UN Security Council Influence Voting in the UN General Assembly?

Recent studies report that temporary members of the UN Security Council receive favorable treatment from the IMF, the World Bank, or in US foreign aid in exchange for their political support for permanent members. Nevertheless, few studies have examined whether this favorable treatment and these benefits have actually made any significant changes in the member states’ voting behavior in the United Nations. To explore this question, we investigate whether membership on the UN Security Council influences a state’s voting in the UN General Assembly. In the analysis of panel data for 197 countries over the period from 1946 to 2008, the empirical results show that elected members of the UN Security Council tend to behave similarly with permanent members, especially with the United States, as the number of loan programs signed with the IMF and the World Bank increases. Also, US foreign aid significantly increases temporary members’ vote coincidence with the United States and other permanent members. In this regard, this article contributes to our understanding of state voting behavior and power politics in international organizations.     

黑河市与俄罗斯文化交流的现状、问题与对策

近年来,黑河以"中俄文化大集"为平台,使官方对俄文化交流进入常态化、规范化;以黑河龙江国际文化展览有限公司的成立为契机,使民间对俄文化交流实现跨越升级;以黑河学院为龙头,使对俄教育交流确立了"桥头堡"和"枢纽站"地位。黑河对俄文化交流存在明显须解决的问题:对俄文化交流仍处于实践与探索中,没有上升到理论层面;对俄文化交流的领域广泛,但发展不均衡,一些领域须加快发展。为了加快推进黑河与俄罗斯的文化交流工作,黑河应采取如下举措:创办高峰发展论坛、加大对俄研究力度、加强图书馆建设。     

Simulated foreign policy exchanges: The rationale underlying a theory of foreign policy interaction

This article is the first of a two‐part series on the development of a theoretical perspective for explaining foreign policy exchanges between nations. The first paper discusses the substantive thrust of the research, and presents an overview of the Monte Carlo computer simulation which lies at its core. The theory largely built on the body of research on events data analysis, attempts to assimilate the set of findings arising from this research into a single integrated theory. Basic assumptions of the theory derived from cybernetics and information theory are outlined, and the simulation rules used in the research are presented. These provide the basis for a later paper (to appear in Vol. 2, No. 2, 1975) that presents a formal mathematical theory which seeks to explain foreign policy exchanges.     

The Economic Leverage of International Organizations in Interstate Disputes

Addressing a long-standing debate in international relations scholarship, this study shows that international governmental organizations (IGOs) with high economic leverage over their member states, such as some development banks, substantially lower the risk that political disputes experience the use of military force. Empirical tests covering cases of disputatious claims and international crises since 1946 make use of a new classification of IGOs that have economic leverage and use it toward increasing states’ cost of using force in disputes. When pairs of states are subject to the economic leverage of IGOs, they are substantially less likely to use force. For the understanding and practice of interstate dispute resolution and international conflict more generally, the study suggests a specific linkage between institutionalized economic interdependence and conflict escalation.     

构建中国—东盟人文交流新格局——新世纪中国—东盟人文交流回顾与展望

在国与国的交往中,除了增加政治互信、推进务实合作外,很重要的就是推动人文交流①。人与人的交流,心与心的沟通,是友好与合作的根本和归宿②。中国与东盟各国的交流源远流长。进入21世纪以来,双边的人文交流发展迅速,呈现出前所未有的新局面。     

跨国佛教组织在新加坡的发展——以新加坡佛光会为例

近年来,越来越多的佛教组织在新加坡设立分支机构或成立会员组织,并在多元种族、多元宗教背景的新加坡社会产生越来越重要的影响。本文以"国际佛光会"的会员组织——新加坡佛光会为研究个案,探讨跨国佛教组织产生的背景及其特点,分析全球化背景下的新加坡佛光会如何实行本土化,从而揭示其发展成功的规律。     

The Effect of Age Structure on the Abrogation of Military Alliances

Scholars of alliance politics have ignored a potentially important factor that shapes foreign policy: the age structure of a state. In this article, we argue that an alliance member is more likely to terminate the alliance in violation of the terms when the state’s youth ratio is high. The demographic pressure of a high youth ratio raises potential for political instability domestically, which in turn increases the risk of radical foreign policy changes. We demonstrate the effects of a state’s age structure on its alliance policy by examining alliance termination by violation from 1950 to 2000. Through quantitative analysis, we find that youth ratio is a strong and significant predictor of alliance abrogation. A brief examination of several examples illustrates two paths by which the pressure created by a high youth ratio contributes to political instability and results in alliance abrogation—leadership change that brings about a new foreign policy and appeasement of the population through abrogation of an unpopular alliance.     

中国参与联合国国际减灾合作问题研究

联合国为各国政府参与国际减灾合作提供了一个良好的平台,在协调人道主义救灾援助、转让减灾技术、促进国际交流、促进减灾框架与气候框架挂钩等领域开展减灾合作。中国作为联合国常任理事国和负责任的大国,将努力推进由联合国主导的国际减灾合作,进一步提升中国的防灾减灾能力和国际影响。     

中缅经济文化交流史中的和顺人

和顺位于云南省腾冲县城西南讼里处,古名阳温暾,因境内有一条小河绕村而过,更名"河顺",后取"士和民顺"之意,雅化为和顺.和顺开发的历史很久远,可推至唐宋,因为近年来发现了南诏大理时代的古梵文碑.明洪武中.寸、刘、李、尹、贾五姓始祖从四川巴县随沐英、蓝玉、傅友德远征云南,以军职屯守和顺.此后,人文蔚起,科举蝉联,文明景象渐次形成,开创了和顺新的历史[1].