China,the Interdependent Giant,and the Global Economic Crisis

The global economic crisis revealed China to be an interdependent giant, one whose ‘rise’ was undeniable but also one whose deepening participation in transnational production sharing and network trade made it highly susceptible to an external shock. China weathered the storm relatively well – avoiding a recession, in particular – not because it had ‘decoupled’ from the G7 economies but because its stimulus measures were unusually swift and powerful. One cost, however, has been a worsening domestic imbalance between investment and consumption that carries a heightened risk of asset price inflation, non-performing loans and destabilising levels of local government debt. Meanwhile, China’s ties to the world economy have not fundamentally changed since the crisis began. Despite stirring leader rhetoric and summit declarations, the BRICS have made only modest progress in meeting their goals. East Asia, North America and Europe remain China’s principal trade partners, and cross-border production chains connecting these regions remain the dominant mode of China’s incorporation into the world economy.     

2010年国际局势的主要特点与展望——主要大国关系的基本走势及其战略动向

2010年是国际局势跌宕起伏、不确定性显著增加的一年：美欧关系明显改善,双方在地缘经济和地缘战略两大战线上的合作趋势强劲;美欧俄三边关系有了明显回升;中美关系进入新的战略磨合期;中国同日本、欧洲关系出现新的＂不对称发展＂;中国周边国家政局恶化。2011年对国际局势的追踪与思考应注意以下几个方面：世界经济中心向亚太转移的趋势不可阻挡;全球财富结构和权力结构的分配出现前所未有的＂分离状况＂;各国国内因素对外交影响作用日益明显;俄罗斯战略动向值得关注,美俄欧三边关系互动情况是重要看点;＂中国崛起＂正成为主导全球与区域战略格局演变和大国关系调整的重要因素。中美关系的稳定要＂登高望远＂。     

中美舆论战与中国的国际传播

美国政府视中国为首要战略竞争对手,并进行遏制打压,激起中国的强烈反对,而舆论战是中美博弈的重要组成部分。中美两国舆论战涵盖的议题广泛,影响波及全球,并发展到意识形态对抗和互相驱逐媒体从业人员的地步。中美双方的舆论攻势和各自国家的政治制度、社会形态的特点息息相关,其阶段性效果与中美既有的国际影响力相匹配。在美国对华大打舆论战的情况下,中国在西方发达国家的形象受损,但在国内极大地凝聚了人心、提振了士气。未来,美国可能仿效针对苏联和俄罗斯的做法,将舆论战更多地和心理战、政治战相结合,以服务其遏制中国的目标。为增强自身的国际传播力,更好地服务与美国的舆论战,中国需要维护好政治安全,提高话语和叙事能力及舆论反击效果,将传统媒体和新兴媒体相融合,并将发展中国家作为国际传播的重点,以逐步形成同我国综合国力和国际地位相匹配的国际话语权。     

美国重返亚洲对中国东亚地区FTA战略的影响——基于TPP合作视角的分析

美国通过加入TPP从实质上确立了"重返亚洲"的全球战略调整,在更大程度上加快了对亚太地区经济一体化进程的干涉。美国主导下的TPP对东亚区域经济合作机制的发展产生了重要影响,也给中国的整体和局部FTA战略带来了诸多的不确定性和挑战。中国必须正确认识美国在东亚地区的经济战略转变以及TPP扩张带来的潜在影响,在此基础上对FTA战略做出合理的调整。中国的FTA战略重心仍应保留在东亚地区,提高国内企业对FTA的利用率,同时跟踪研究TPP的最新进展,为以后加入TPP谈判做好相应的准备工作。     

新一届美国政府对外政策及影响前瞻笔谈

近年来,世界多极化趋势不断发展,美国主导的全球秩序开始显露坍缩征兆。然而,美国仍然保持着当今世界唯一的超级大国地位,其内政外交政策选择一直具有全球性影响。特朗普政府实施的"美国优先"政策对全球秩序造成了严重冲击,特别是对华发动极限施压性的"贸易战"和战略竞争,使中美关系发生严重倒退。特朗普政府随心所欲、极端强硬的执政风格,不仅招致很多国家的激烈批判和反对,在美国国内也引起了巨大争议。美国大选已经落下帷幕,尽管现任总统特朗普仍然没有承认和接受败选事实,但美国政府更迭已经无可逆转。新一届美国政府将采取什么样的对外政策?我们将如何应对美国因政府更迭而发生的政策调整?为加强对美国对外政策的前瞻研究,2020年11月5日,本刊编辑部联合吉林大学经济学院、现代国际关系研究所、东北亚研究院、东北亚研究中心、美国研究所等单位召开了"美国大选后的世界格局与中美关系"学术研讨会,10位专家做了会议发言。本刊选择其中3篇和另外1篇投稿摘要刊发,希望能够促进对美国新一届政府内政外交政策的前瞻性研究。     

美国“新门罗主义”拉美政策及面临的挑战

自特朗普政府上任以来,美国对拉美政策奉行“新门罗主义”,加大了对拉美国家的干预,反映在经济、政治和安全等领域,如鼓噪“美国优先”,大打“贸易牌”“移民牌”,使前任奥巴马政府与古巴关系正常化的努力出现全面倒退,甚至拒绝承认委内瑞拉民选总统马杜罗而另行“任命”一个代理总统瓜伊多等。当今世界处于百年未有之大变局,拉美政治、经济格局也经历着深刻变化。中国、俄罗斯等在拉美的影响力不断增强。“一带一路”倡议在拉美落地生根,深化了中拉政治、经济互信;俄罗斯强硬支持委内瑞拉加剧了美俄博弈,导致美国“后院失火”的可能性增大,迫使特朗普深度调整美国对拉美政策。这一政策调整对美国究竟意味着全球战略扩张还是战略收缩,值得探讨。特朗普的拉美政策不仅会影响美拉关系及美拉双方的发展,也将影响中拉关系的发展。本文尝试对美国“新门罗主义”拉美政策的现状、原因和影响进行分析,并考察其面临的挑战。     

美国绿色经济理念下的贸易摩擦隐患及中国对策

巨额外债已经成为威胁美国经济发展的重大隐患,美国希望通过倡导绿色经济为其国内经济寻找新的增长点,同时争取在全球气候变化、节能减排等议题中占据主动。该倡议暗含着强烈的战略性贸易保护动机,可能会影响未来中国制造业的国际竞争力,成为中美贸易摩擦的新隐患。为此,我们应该及早应对,从舆论引导、理论研究、政策设计和战略人才储备方面做好充分准备,以便在将来的中美贸易战略布局与战术对决中掌握主动、占据先机。     

Capabilities and aspirations: South Korea’s rise as a middle power

In November 2010, the G20 Summit was held in Seoul. The G20 has increasingly replaced the G8 as being the premier forum for international economic cooperation, but in November 2010, it was the first time that a summit was held in country that was not a G8 member. It was by the Korean government seen as evidence of the country finally having achieved the goal of becoming an advanced nation playing, while still constrained by the division of the peninsula, a global role in line with its economic standing. The article argues that this has been a constant theme in Korea’s foreign policy since it was originally formulated in 1994 as part of the country’s globalization policy. This addition of an intentional dimension, to the objective capabilities created during the previous decades, has increasingly resulted in the type of behavior associated with middle power status.     

The transatlantic partnership: Holding China accountable for the Uyghur genocide

This article focuses on Metropolitan State University Denver Debate’s participation in the 2020 Schuman Challenge, a competition hosted by the Delegation of the European Union to the United States. Undergraduate participants were asked to answer the question: “How should the EU and the U.S. respond to China’s alternative models of governance?” In response, the debate team focused on the People’s Republic of China’s human rights violations against the Uyghurs. Three recommendations to address this injustice were presented: (1) expand the use of the Magnitsky Act; (2) amplify current EU/U.S. sanctions; and (3) apply pressure on China’s efforts to secure natural resources. Overall, the debate team’s research suggested that these approaches would both strengthen the EU/U.S. partnership and promote a coordinated response to China aimed at pursuing justice for the Uyghur people. This article also highlights the authors’ journey to engage in advanced undergraduate research focused on foreign policy.     

美国对华经贸规锁:典型事实、行为逻辑与战略约束

特朗普政府执政后,美国从升级对华关税制裁、重塑国际贸易规则、严控高新技术获取、扩容货币互换协议、打压中国概念股票、推进产业链自主化和"去中国化"六个维度,对中国实施选择性"挂钩"和关键领域"脱钩"的经贸规锁。其行为逻辑,一是为满足国内多元化经济集团的利益诉求,二是基于美国对中国崛起的"威胁认知"和大国战略竞争的"权力逻辑"。从战略约束看,美国开放性利益集团的经济理性、其他经济体的行为取向、中国的结构性国家竞争优势,构成了美国对华经贸规锁的重要制约因素。作为应对,中国需确定"全政府"的战略模式,理解"双循环"的科学内涵,贯彻改革开放的既定方针,重视"一带一路"倡议的战略意义。     

Business as Usual

In the years since 9/11, there is no doubt that the emphasis of U.S. global strategy has been on counter-terrorism and the war in Iraq. During this period of time, the U.S. investment in strategic, political and military resources in the Middle East, Iraq, and the war on terror, which are the top priorities on the list of Bush＇s foreign policy, has been far greater than in any other fields. However, there are some in the U.S. who believe that China＇s rise has been much ignored by the U.S., due to the global war on terror （GWOT）, and that America should, in fact, be focusing more on China, not the Middle East. However, as we see it, China has by no means been ignored by the U.S., neither has China＇s rise been the result of U.S. ignorance.     

中美对朝政策竞争与合作的态势分析

中美两国在朝鲜问题上,既有着无核化与防扩散、维护地区稳定等方面的共同利益,也在朝鲜意识形态、无核化的方式等问题上存在着冲突性利益。利用SWOT模型比较中美两国的对朝政策,可以明晰两国的内部优、劣势和外部机遇与挑战。如果中美两国只注重自身优势与机遇,即中国强调和平稳定的重要性,美国强调无核化的迫切性,将增大两国政策的竞争性,不利于合作的展开。中美两国对朝政策竞争的根源在于崛起国与霸权国之间的结构性矛盾,中国意图维持地缘安全的缓冲区与经济发展的前沿地带,美国则希望以此牵制新兴大国。美国遏制地区大国的企图和对朝鲜安全关切的忽视是中美合作难以取得进展的主要原因。如果中美两国能够正视两国间的冲突性利益,降低获得对方支持的心理预期,将会有效防止地区局势和双边关系的波动。针对不稳定的朝鲜半岛局势,中美之间应加强安全对话,构建地区危机管理机制,避免因朝鲜半岛问题发生恶性竞争和诱发正面冲突。     

“一带一路”倡议推动全球经济治理变革的逻辑根源——基于发展逻辑与资本逻辑的比较分析

长期以来,全球经济治理由西方国家主导,遵从新自由主义的资本逻辑和竞争单方取胜的经济全球化运行逻辑,建构单方面契合西方国家利益偏好的统一规则治理模式。当前,这一传统的全球经济治理面临前所未有的困境而亟待变革。中国倡导的"一带一路"以"中国道路"的成功为事实基础,顺应发展导向与实践理性相互加强的理论逻辑,践行"发展共赢"的包容性全球化运行逻辑,塑造以包容性发展机制为核心特征的全球经济治理"中国方案"。对发展逻辑而非资本逻辑的遵循是"一带一路"倡议能够推动全球经济治理变革的逻辑根源。     

Sino-U.S. Strategic Mutual Trust

Relations between China and the U.S. have been relatively stable for nearly seven years, for the first time since the end of the Cold War. Strategic mutual trust, however, is not enough and there is a long way to go before both countries can achieve a permanent strategic stability. Four problems have prevented stability in bilateral relations, namely structural internal accidental and cognitive issues. The goal of building strategic mutual trust still remains distant, and developing a good understanding between each other is the thorniest problem for both countries. Better mutual understanding can lead to an expansion of bilateral relations. China and the U.S. need to increase mutual trust and work towards achieving strategic stability.     

Is there a U.S.–China–India triangle? – Beijing’s official views

ABSTRACT

This research examines China’s official perspectives on, and interpretation of, U.S.-China-India relations by surveying official, quasi-official, and some most relevant scholarly publications. China’s official line has always emphasized the bilateral nature of the relationship between China and India fending off any third-party interference, including that from the United States. Neither Chinese leaders nor the regime’s official media outlets would speak of China–India relationship with a triangular framework (with a rare exception of the Russia–India–China triangle). In the context of the rapid evolvement of U.S.-India military cooperation, the Chinese official line remains unforthcoming about whether such developments have direct implication for China’s security or national interests. Chinese core official media has in fact minimized the popularization of the idea that containing China is the driving force behind any cooperation between India and the United States.     

21世纪初美国经济发展趋势分析

美国经济在全球经济中占有非常重要的地位,因此美国经济的未来走势直接关系到全球经济的发展,美国在经济发展中所具有的优势地位以及在未来经济发展中所要面对的挑战与风险,美国未来经济面临着巨额的经常项目逆差、财政收支赤字、能源价格高涨以及房地产泡沫破灭的威胁,使美国必须采取措施进行调整,这将导致本世纪初美国未来经济发展速度减慢。     

论日本“西南防御”与中日关系

自21世纪以来,日本逐渐将防御重点由东北转向西南,其中明显带有防范与遏制中国的战略意图。通过调整防卫体制与深化日美同盟,日本正在形成事实上的"西南防御"战略。2010年版《防卫计划大纲》的出台更进一步推动了其强化"西南防御"的战略部署。日本构筑"西南防御"体系的行为,严重削弱了中日两国间的战略互信基础,并对中日关系的发展造成了阻碍。     

美国的出口管制政策及其对美中贸易的影响

美国出口管制政策演变的历史表明,出口管制始终是美国国家战略的一个重要组成部分。自中华人民共和国成立以来,美国对华一直实行歧视性出口管制政策。这不仅在相当程度上加剧了美中贸易失衡,而且使两国都付出了巨大的经济代价。由于奥巴马政府并未改变美国对华的一贯立场,因此其推动的出口管制改革并未惠及美中贸易,使美中贸易关系的发展日趋复杂。在对华出口管制问题上,美中两国的博弈将是一个长期的过程,在美中双边经济相互依赖关系中明显处于弱势地位的中国应当积极采取措施予以应对。     

Confrontations on the Issue of Terrorism Between Iran and the U.S. after 1979

The issue of terrorism has been a significant source of influence on the relationship between Iran and the U.S. since the Islamic Revolution. Iran's friendship with extremist groups that are designated as terrorist groups by the U.S. State Department is seriously challenging America's foreign policy. This article attempts to explore the prospect of confrontations on the issue of terrorism between Iran and the U.S. through a detailed analysis of their different interpretations and mutual recognitions of terrorism and through an in-depth analysis of the measures each party has taken regarding this confrontation. This article argues that the confrontation between Iran and the U.S. regarding the issue of terrorism is not strictly about terrorism. Rather, it is also about the conflicts of policies that result from different security interests and political values. Resolving the issue of terrorism depends on the reconciliation of the relationship between Iran and the U.S. Without mutual trust between the two nations, Iran will continue to support extremist groups in order to increase its influence against the external and internal pressures it is currently under, and the U.S. will continue to contain Iran's regional ambitions and seek changes in its behavior.     

中国与朝鲜经贸关系转型中的困境及对策

新世纪以来,中朝经贸关系保持快速发展态势。其中的重要转变是从过去以战略安全为主导的经贸关系逐步转向以市场为主导的经贸关系,这一转变预示朝鲜正处于向市场经济转型的初始阶段。而在中朝经贸关系持续发展过程中,中国和朝鲜各自存在的问题影响、甚至阻碍着双边经贸关系的进一步发展,为了超越障碍、抓住朝鲜亟须外部支持之时机,中国有必要从重新确定双边经贸关系战略地位等方面入手,积极推动中朝经贸关系深入发展。