孤岛抗战中的东南亚琼侨回乡服务团

抗日战争时期，琼崖大地上留下了不少海外琼籍华侨、香港琼籍同胞报效祖国和家乡的足迹。琼崖抗战之所以那样波澜壮阔，光彩照人，是因为它还饱含着海外华人炽烈的民族感情，寄托着海外侨胞的热切希望。东南亚琼侨回乡服务团勇赴国难的壮举和英雄业绩是海外侨胞民族感情的集中体现。卢沟桥的炮声响起，中国在战火中飘摇。拯救祖国，拯救中华民族的大义牵动千百万海外赤子的心。     

China-U.S. Handshake in Northeast Asia

Dual instability has simultaneously shaken China-U.S.ties and Northeast Asian balance of power,putting on hold a Six-Party Talks that promised to give birth to a region-wide security framework based on...     

海洋法公约与南海领土争议

联合国海洋法公约自产生以来,原先存在的南海主权争议不仅没有得到解决,反而更趋复杂化,其原因与海洋法公约中一些无提及的问题有着密切的联系。本文论述了海洋法公约中有关专属经济区、大陆架、岛屿、岩礁、群岛国、群岛水域等问题对南海领土争议的种种影响。     

试论1954年中印总理、中缅总理的互访

朝鲜战争结束后,美国极力拉拢中国周边的亚洲国家组建针对中国的包围圈,为了应对这一情况,中国提出了建立“国际和平统一战线”的外交战略,1954年中印、中缅两国总理互访就是落实“国际和平统一战线”政策的重大举措。在互访过程中,中印、中缅共同提出了和平共处五项原则,中国领导人着力消除了印度、缅甸在华人华侨、边界问题、亚洲国家共产党以及中美关系等问题上的疑虑和担心,从而促进了中印、中缅两国关系,巩固了亚洲国家的中立倾向,为亚非会议的召开奠定了良好的基础。     

China's New Multi-Faceted Maritime Strategy

As trade-driven growth and prosperity redefine both the Chinese economy and the global competitive landscape, U.S. policy makers increasingly must ponder whether the Chinese leadership will seek new options and capabilities to protect its far-reaching oceanic lifelines. As imported oil and raw minerals power the Chinese juggernaut, much of these flows traverse the Strait of Malacca and other littorals where there is little current Chinese capability to project power. In recent years, there is an ongoing debate among Chinese military circles regarding the feasibility of constructing a blue-water fleet that could change the balance of power in the Western Pacific and Indian Oceans. U.S. policy makers watch with increasing unease as a new generation of technically-savvy navy officers forcefully argue for a forward-looking maritime strategic posture that extends beyond the East and South China Seas. In addition, recent Chinese space-based and cyber warfare technology initatives bear watching as Beijing seeks to nullify key U.S. advantages in C4SRI using a high-tech variant of “asymmetric warfare.” Although it is unclear what direction future Chinese maritime strategy and doctrine will take, U.S. policy makers need to remain vigilant about rising Chinese maritime ambitions and capabilities in the future.     

大选年、大辩论、大变革——美国对外政策回顾与展望

奥巴马在布什政府对外政策使美国深陷战略困境、美国经济濒临衰退边缘、选民普遍思变的情势下高票当选美国总统。美国大选年历来也是美国共和、民主两党及战略研究界围绕美国政府内外政策展开的辩论年。作为2008年美国大选年和大辩论的结果奥巴马入主白宫，必将对美现行外交政策进行大变革。总的趋势将是：从单边主义走向多边合作，从先发制人和滥用武力趋向谈判对话与和平磋商。     

U.S. Policy Towards Southeast Asia

Greater East Asia is expected to be the next theatre for world politics. 1 East Asian cooperation is rapidly developing through the channels of ASEAN Plus Three （APT） and East Asia Summit （EAS）, both driven by ASEAN. Southeast Asia is a region of diverse states and cultures that brings together all the major powers of the Asian-Pacific in a myriad of strategic interests. It is thus an open arena with the potential for a variety of strategic game-playing, options, and uncertain outcomes.2 In recent years, China＇s developing relationship with Southeast Asia has undergone a significant shift as the U.S.＇ distraction elsewhere and neglect of the region have created opportunities for an increased Chinese diplomatic and economic role in Southeast Asia.3 U.S. analysts are concerned about what may lie behind this shift in China-ASEAN relations, how it may affect American interests in the region and how best to react to the changes. Some have expressed concerns that to avoid becoming distanced from the region the U.S. should pay more attention to Southeast Asia, rather than just watching from a distance. This paper attempts to analyze the possible changes of U.S. policy towards Southeast Asia in the current context of East Asian Cooperation and its implications for China.     

美国全球供应链调整的国家安全逻辑及实现路径

自奥巴马政府以来,特别是新冠肺炎疫情暴发后,国家安全在美国全球供应链调整中的影响日益彰显。在国家安全的视域下,美国政府调整全球供应链的逻辑依据为“国防论”与“选择性贸易保护主义”。美国的国家安全侧重国家利益与价值,全球供应链调整则诉求产品(或服务)的可替换性,二者交互作用,贸易保护主义性质的“国防论”与“选择性贸易保护主义”就成为分析美国全球供应链调整的理论分析框架。“国防论”侧重诠释具有国防意义产品(或服务)的进出口,而“选择性贸易保护主义”则分析了普通贸易实践对美国整体福利乃至国家安全的损害。美国在国家安全视域下调整全球供应链的路径依赖于软硬两种手段。一是无弹性的硬手段,表现为官僚体制、决策机制、相关法律制度与管理规范,美国全球供应链上的企业必须遵守,其具有吓阻功能。二是具有弹性的软手段,体现为国家战略以及政策说明等,其不具有强制性。基于此,这一研究有助于进一步厘清时下美国政府变动不居的对华经贸政策,构建合作与开放的中美经贸关系。     

摩洛哥与西班牙领土争端解析

摩洛哥和西班牙隔地中海相望，长期保持着传统特殊关系，同时两国之间就休达和梅利利亚两个飞地城市以及佩雷希尔岛等摩洛哥沿海一些岛屿的主权归属问题存在争端。2002年7月爆发佩雷希尔岛危机，造成双边关系恶化和地区局势紧张。两国领土争端短期内难以解决，将是影响双边关系乃至地中海地区局势的一个潜在威胁。     

The U. S. -Russian Dispute on the Implementation of the INF Treaty and Future Trend北大核心CSSCISSCI

In July 2014, the U. S. State Department, in its arms-control annual report, accused Russia of violating the INF Treaty signed by the U.S. and the USSR in 1987, triggering a new round of diplomatic confrontation between the two countries. The reasons for the frequent U. S. -Russia disputes on the INF Treaty are multiple, including historical roots, security concerns and realistic political factors of the both sides. The future of the INF Treaty will depend on the dynamic evolution of both U.S. and Russian politics and its impact on the security environment of the two countries. In the short term, the U.S. and Russia will continue to focus on solving the problems of implementing the treaty; in the long term, the U.S. and Russia are likely to transform the INFT into a multilateral treaty.     

Outsourcing and China's Rising Economic Power

U.S. firms are outsourcing more and more of their core manufacturing activities to companies in lower-cost countries such as China. However, U.S. policymakers and businesspeople often do not fully understand the complex relationship among outsourcing, corporate sources of competitive advantage, and U.S.-Chinese geo-economic and strategic relations. U.S. companies often must surrender key technologies to Chinese partners and suppliers in order to gain access to the Chinese market. This knowledge transfer helps spawn Chinese rivals that are likely eventually to compete with foreign companies in the global market. This article considers some of the long-term implications of outsourcing on China's regional development and on U.S. competitiveness and national strategy.     

The Confluence of Domestic and International Interests: U.S. Policy Toward Cuba, 1998–2001

This article examines the confluence of forces at work to shape U.S. policy toward Cuba since the late 1990s. Our approach examines four key factors involved in policymaking toward Cuba in this period: (1) the entry of new interest groups into the Cuba policy process and an "entrepreneurial" Congress; (2) the executive's constitutionally based interests; (3) bureaucratic interests; and (4) pressure from outside the United States. We examine U.S.–Cuba policy by describing each determinant in isolation and then by looking at the dynamic interaction among them, showing how they are linked together. In doing so, we argue that an analysis including multiple factors better explains U.S. policy toward Cuba than one that focuses on a single factor such as the power of the Cuban-American community.     

Chinese Military Power: What Vexes the United States and Why?

The enhancement of Chinese military power over the past decade is generating ample debate over its meaning and consequences for American security interests. China's characterization in larger conceptions of U.S. national security strategy has experienced repeated shifts over the decades. China is now an arrived major power according to virtually all relevant power criteria, without U.S. policy makers conclusively resolving the implications of China's military modernization for American security interests. Comparable uncertainties bedevil Chinese thinking about American military power. The latent elements of strategic rivalry (if not outright confrontation) are beyond dispute, and could readily take deeper root in the bureaucratic processes of both countries. Without leaders in both systems fully imparting and communicating to one another their respective strategic equities in Asia and the Pacific, the emergence of a reconfigured regional security order fully accepted by both states remains very uncertain.     

新一届美国政府对外政策及影响前瞻笔谈

近年来,世界多极化趋势不断发展,美国主导的全球秩序开始显露坍缩征兆。然而,美国仍然保持着当今世界唯一的超级大国地位,其内政外交政策选择一直具有全球性影响。特朗普政府实施的"美国优先"政策对全球秩序造成了严重冲击,特别是对华发动极限施压性的"贸易战"和战略竞争,使中美关系发生严重倒退。特朗普政府随心所欲、极端强硬的执政风格,不仅招致很多国家的激烈批判和反对,在美国国内也引起了巨大争议。美国大选已经落下帷幕,尽管现任总统特朗普仍然没有承认和接受败选事实,但美国政府更迭已经无可逆转。新一届美国政府将采取什么样的对外政策?我们将如何应对美国因政府更迭而发生的政策调整?为加强对美国对外政策的前瞻研究,2020年11月5日,本刊编辑部联合吉林大学经济学院、现代国际关系研究所、东北亚研究院、东北亚研究中心、美国研究所等单位召开了"美国大选后的世界格局与中美关系"学术研讨会,10位专家做了会议发言。本刊选择其中3篇和另外1篇投稿摘要刊发,希望能够促进对美国新一届政府内政外交政策的前瞻性研究。     

日本最早记载钓鱼岛的文献——《琉球国图》

琉球政府《关于尖阁列岛主权》的声明宣称：“《琉球三省并三十六岛之图》所依据的是中国的《中山传信录》,这种资料没有价值。”本文通过考证,认为《琉球三省并三十六岛之图》是《琉球国图》的临摹图,《琉球国图》是日本最早记载钓鱼岛的文献,琉球政府的声明不能成立;甲午战争之前,钓鱼岛并非日本政府所称的“无主地”,更不是琉球群岛的属地,而是台湾的附属岛屿,属于中国的领土。这不仅为中国文献所证明,也为日本和西方的文献所证明。钓鱼岛属于中国,已经是当时国际社会的共识。     

美国防部《2009中国军力报告》评析

美国国防部发布的“中国军力报告”既是美国对中国军力的认知反应，也是美国拟定对华政策的重要参考依据。《2009中国军力报告》总体上缺乏新意，一方面反映奥巴马政府对华战略尚处于构建阶段，预示其将延续前任政府的对华政策；另一方面也表明中美关系的发展将处于相对稳定状态。然而，就报告出台的背景及报告本身的权威性而言，仍值得关注。     

Conceptualizing the effects of mass‐mediated terrorism

Abstract

In summer 1985, a TWA plane was hijacked by Shiite terrorists to Beirut creating what turned to be one of the most impressive spectacles of the mass‐mediated “theater of terror.” After the event the American media were blamed for fanning the crisis atmosphere, giving the terrorists the publicity they craved, abetting the terrorists by reporting U.S. military movements, holding a brutal competition among themselves to get exclusive footage or interviews, harassing the hostages’ families, negotiating directly with the terrorists, milking the hostages still held by the terrorists for political and ideological declarations, and propagandizing the terrorists’ anti‐U.S. and anti‐Israel messages. The resulting debate that followed these accusations, illustrates the lingering argument regarding media and terrorism. While some claim that “the media are the terrorists’ best friends. The terrorist act by itself is nothing. Publicity is all”,¹ others argue that the media are avoiding the “real terror” for ideological reasons, averting Western public opinion from U.S. terrorism by underreporting its share in Third World Terrorism.² The ideological loadings of definitions and arguments are combined with confused interpretations of media effects and public opinion to yield an endless, futile debate. The purpose of the paper is to conceptualize basic effects of mass‐mediated terrorism by relating media effects studies to the case of terrorism and public opinion.     

The Personalization(s) of Politics: Israel, 1949–2003

The relationship between the United States and Iran has had an important influence on world affairs during the past two decades. Accordingly, the U.S. news media have an instrumental role in portraying U.S.‐Iran relations to the public. The Iranian Revolution and hostage crisis of 1979–1981, the TWA hijacking of 1985, the Irangate controversy of 1986–1987, and the Persian Gulf War of 1990–1991 are examples of important media events that have impacted public opinion regarding U.S. policy toward Iran. This research analyzes government and print media portrayals of the Reagan administration's U.S.‐Iran policy during Irangate. Results supported the prediction that the print media would fulfill their “watchdog” function by providing more critical portrayals of the United States' policy toward Iran than the Tower Commission Report, an investigative document published by President Reagan's Special Review Board. Among the three leading newspapers analyzed, there was significant diversity in the reporting of U.S.‐Iran relations. Results indicate the Reagan administration's attempt to “spin” its version of Irangate did not successfully pressure the media to neglect their watchdog role. Although the Tower Commission Report was less critical of U.S. policy toward Iran than the print media, all four print media sources portrayed the Reagan administration's policy as a flawed approach that degenerated into trading arms for hostages. Implications of these findings for future research are discussed.     

Visions of (In)Security and American Strategic Style

This essay was stimulated (provoked) by discussions in three separate venues: (1) a U.S. Naval War College conference on "Alternative Futures in War and Conflict: Implications for U.S. National Security," held in late 1999; (2) several recent widely circulated "blue-ribbon" reports on the subject; and (3) recent papers emerging from the U.S. defense bureaucracy speculating on strategic visions of the next ten to twenty years. My contention is that the prevailing official and quasi-official debate exhibits excessive and overly definitive emphases on: (1) particular facets of insecurity; (2) attributions to the U.S. of benign intent and capacity; and (3) assumptions that most others share that interpretation of our words and deeds. There also tends to be unwarranted neglect of representation and standing issues which discriminate for and against different policy perspectives and forms of program expertise. A plea is offered for an alternative approach based on what we know about how persons, organizations, and communities can best position themselves for (in)security futures.     

Readjustments in U.S. Cross-Taiwan Strait Policy

Washington had all along followed an ambiguity policy over its possible military intervention in a Taiwan contingency. However, recent years have witnessed readjustments towards＂ ＂double clarity＂ of a possible military response in case of a Chinese-initiated use of force and potential inaction in the event of a conflict derived from Taiwanese provocations to change the status quo by seeking de jure independence. In other words, it spells a policy shift toward ＂dual deterrence,＂ namely to deter the Chinese mainland from using force in seeking national reunification and to deter Taiwan from moving toward de jure independence. To prevent such eventuality, Washington made direct appeal to the Taiwan public to make clear its opposition to Taiwan independence.
The reasons behind the readjustments are not far to seek. They reflect shifts in U.S. strategic focus, changes in its China policy, political developments on both sides of the Taiwan Strait and President Bush＇s personal disgust with former Taiwan leader Chen Shuibian＇s cunning tricks.
However, resumption of Cross-Strait dialogue in the wake of the return to power of the Kuomintang （National Party） through the ballot in March may bring about new worries and possible further readjustments in U.S. cross-strait policy after the November presidential elections. Though uncertainties remain, in the pipeline may be an endeavor to prevent excessive cross-strait warmth and a possible tilt of Taiwan to the Chinese Mainland.