The Biden Administration's Policy Toward Southeast Asia: Momentum,Motivation and Challenges

After Biden took office,the United States,on the basis of inheriting the main framework of the Trump administration's Southeast Asia policy,has gradually increased its strategic input in Southeast Asia to expand the depth and breadth of cooperation with Southeast Asian countries.First,consolidate its diplomatic influence.     

越美海军关系新发展值得关注

近期,美国调整其亚太战略,不断发展与东盟国家的关系,增强在东亚包括东南亚地区的军事存在。越南与美国海军交往的战略意图不容忽视,越南与美国发展海军关系,既迎合了美国对亚太战略进行重大调整、加强与东南亚国家接触的需要,也是其自身推行新的全面海洋战略和南海争端＂国际化＂战略的需要。越南应该清醒地看到,越美之间战略利益的一致性将会是短暂的、不均衡的。美国的全球战略决定它不会把现在的越南作为长期战略伙伴,不会把越南放在举足轻重的战略位置上。     

奥巴马政府东亚政策的调整及中国的应对

对东亚政策的调整是奥巴马政府外交政策调整的主要方面。调整的内容包括,巩固与东亚盟国的关系,重视发展与东盟及东南亚国家的关系,而调整与中国政策的关系,无疑是美国东亚政策的核心。奥巴马政府对东亚政策的调整给中国外交政策带来了挑战,但如果处理得当,机遇明显大于挑战:美国东亚政策的调整可以促进中国推动国际秩序朝着更加公正合理方向发展的实践和规则的制定;为中美合作创造拓展更多的领域、提供更多的机会,特别是在非传统安全领域;也有利于中美关系的未来协调发展。     

Regionalism's multiple negotiations: ASEAN in East Asia

This article explains East Asian regionalism as the product of two sets of negotiations. The first negotiation is between East Asia on the one hand and global forces and structures on the other. The second negotiation is intra-regional and includes a critical negotiation between the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN)-Southeast Asia and East/Northeast Asia, which also provides the primary focus of this article. This article details ASEAN's extensions into East Asian regionalism as part of interdependent efforts to adapt transitioning global and regional systems. Conceiving these regional negotiations to be not just economic and utilitarian but first and foremost normative, this article details the opportunities and dilemmas represented by ‘East Asia’ for ASEAN, ASEAN-Southeast Asia and Southeast Asia as a meaningful organizing principle. Dilemmas associated with the ASEAN Plus Three process, an East Asia free-trade area and the ASEAN Charter provide illustrations of East Asia's understood challenges for Southeast Asia in addition to the ways that Southeast Asian agencies have been shaping the form and content of recent East Asian efforts and also how regional-global and intra-ASEAN negotiations continue to provide key constraints.     

Recent Sino-ASEAN Cooperation and Its Regional Impact

Since the year 2000, China and the ASEAN countries have promoted mutual trade and investment, strengthened political trust and increased cooperation in terms of economic aid, security, and cultural and educational exchanges. More and more people are realizing that China poses no threat to other countries. With China 's growing influence in ASEAN, the U.S., Japan, and other big powers have increased their strategic investment in Southeast Asia to try to maintain their long-standing strategic advantage in the region. At the same time, the ASEAN countries are trying to play off these big powers against each other to maximize their own advantage.Ma Yanbing is Research Professor of CICIR. Her research interest is Southeast Asian affairs.     

东亚峰会吸收美俄参加及其影响

东盟外长会议决定邀请美国和俄罗斯加入东亚峰会，这是东亚区域合作的重要变化，也使美国加快实现其“重返东南亚”的战略。近年来美国遏制中国的倾向比较突出，斯坦伯格的“战略再保证”与当年杜勒斯的“岛链战略”一脉相承；美国务卿希拉里在东盟地区论坛会议上大谈南海问题，表明美国高调介入南海主权争端，这将使南海问题更加复杂化。当前中国的周边环境较为严峻，须冷静观察，沉着应对。     

从“重返”到“再平衡”——奥巴马政府第二任期的东南亚政策

美国总统奥巴马2009年上台后,对东南亚表现出浓厚的兴趣并高调"重返",推出了一系列加强在东南亚存在的举措。2013年连任后,他将在未来4年继续把东南亚作为"亚太再平衡"战略的着力点。同时,奥巴马政府意识到其东南亚政策也需要进行"再平衡",应放缓军事"重返"脚步,在经济、政治、安全等领域全方位投入,均衡化、长期化地推进东南亚外交。国内财政限制、中东等地区外交挑战和外交人员人事变动等因素会对美国新一届政府的东南亚外交有所制约,但其未来政策走向仍将对中国周边外交和中美关系产生持续影响。     

U.S. and East Asian Integration

the U.S. is directly impacting on the future of the East Asian community. Therefore, finding ways to get along with the U.S. is crucial to the speed, direction, configuration and character of the East Asian community. In this paper, the author has analyzed the interests of the United States in East Asia and its stands towards the East Asian integration. The author concludes that it is to the interest of the United States to make more efforts to further join in the East Asian integration. And East Asia should accept and welcome the American participation.     

东盟安全机制的有效性与局限性

东南亚地区具有重要的地缘战略地位,向来是大国政治和军事角逐的焦点地区。东南亚国家为了保障该地区的和平与稳定,在长期的实践过程中形成了其独特的安全机制"东盟方式",这一模式在稳定地区安全事务中发挥了重要的作用。1978 年东盟在解决柬埔寨问题中作出了积极的贡献,展现出东盟安全机制的有效性;但在 2008 年 7 月以来柬埔寨和泰国发生的边境争端中作为不大,则反映出东盟安全机制的局限性。"东盟方式"在这两次重大事件中发挥的作用截然不同,正反映出东盟安全机制的有效性与局限性。     

China,ASEAN Advance United

This article aims to reexamine relations between China and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations （ASEAN） after recent moves by the U.S. to intervene in the relationship. First, it looks at how the global financial crisis has affected relations; it then analyzes the effect of U.S. interference; and, finally it wraps up with a prediction of the fate of the ASEAN way and its impact on the Asia-Pacific region.     

Democratization and foreign policy in Southeast Asia: the case of the ASEAN Inter-Parliamentary Myanmar Caucus

Recent democratic transitions in Southeast Asia raise the question as to how we should theorize the relationship between democratization and foreign policy. Many scholars assume that more ‘democratic’ Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) members pursue more ‘liberal’ policies than their less-democratic counterparts, but surprisingly little theoretical work investigates the connection. This article argues that such investigations tend to crumble under close scrutiny. Instead, it offers an alternative framework based on an analysis of how different socio-economic interests contend to shape foreign policy in ASEAN states and how these interests are able to organize politically to impose their preferences. The case study of the ASEAN Inter-Parliamentary Myanmar Caucus, a regional network of legislators campaigning for liberal-interventionist policies on Myanmar, shows how it is these forces, and not the mere presence or absence of formally democratic institutions, that govern the political space available to those seeking to transform ASEAN states' policies.     

局部等级视角下的东亚安全秩序与中美战略竞争

东亚秩序转型是冷战后国际关系学界争论的重要问题。在回顾既有争论的基础上,本文尝试从局部等级视角切入,分析东亚安全秩序的性质及其转型动力。局部等级体系由体系唯一超级大国领导的地区安全等级与区域内自助国家共同构成。冷战结束以来,东亚地区呈现出典型的局部等级体系特征,并在中国持续崛起的过程中逐步形成了以战略对冲为主要行为模式的安全秩序。尽管当前美国对华政策的对抗性不断增强,但是在局部等级体系下中国坚持战略对冲不但可以有效缓解自身面临的崛起困境,而且有助于防止中美陷入美苏冷战式的集团对抗,以战略对冲为核心特征的东亚安全秩序也将因此得以延续。这些发现一定程度上深化了地区安全秩序和大国竞争的理论研究,同时也有助于中美两国更为有效地管控其在东亚地区的战略竞争。     

Power and Paradox: Asian Geopolitics and Sino-American Relations in the 21 Century

The pattern of Asian geopolitics can be examined by employing three analytical perspectives. The first employs East Asia and the vigorous debate over the meaning of the rise of China as an intellectual prism to observe the currents of geopolitical continuity and change that are currently abroad in the Asian region. The second explores the extent to which the interacting forces of geopolitics and military modernization foster the rise of new force projection capabilities that may affect the strategic environment in Asia—particularly in East Asia. Here, the focus is mainly on the arsenals of the three indigenous Asian giants, China, Japan and India, all of whom have developed, or are in the process of developing, significant air and maritime assets whose operations have the potential to intersect in East and South East Asia. Russia is not as much a presence because it no longer possesses its powerful Soviet-era Pacific Fleet and has, in essential respects, retreated to its traditional role as a Eurasian land power.¹ The third examines the future of Sino-American relations in Asia in the context of the debate over China's ascent and U. S. decline—a discussion that has intensified since the implosion of the U.S. financial system in 2008 and the onset of the worst global recession since the 1930s.     

American Asia Policy and the U.S. Election

This article reviews post-Cold War U.S./Asia policy and its potential electoral impact even as the United States selects its future foreign policy leadership and course of direction. This essay is presented in three parts: the first focuses on the U.S. security architecture in the Asian region, a brief second section on the relevance of recent changes in regional political economy, and the third attempts to determine how this emerging economic-security model might dovetail with perceived American political interests at a time of national resolution.     

Islam in Southeast Asia: The Challenge of Radical Interpretations

This article addresses three questions. The rise of radical Islamic movements in Southeast Asia, the links between Jemaah Islamiyah (JI) and al-Qaeda, and the challenge to Southeast Asian states from JI. Desker gives an overview of radical Islamic organisations in Southeast Asia resorting to violence, and their reciprocal connections and ties to the global al-Qaeda network. These organisations and their actions draw attention to the interplay between transnational non-state actors, postcolonial states and regional integration processes in the Association of South-East Asian Nations (ASEAN). Desker points out the fragility of postcolonial states challenged by religious, ethnic and linguistic groups promoting separatist or transnational agendas. As new states protective of their sovereignty and the primacy of their national identities, the ASEAN members generally have pursued individual national interests in confronting such transnational actors. As such the ASEAN member-states have not relied on their multilateral relationships, highlighting the erosion of the ASEAN security community after the Cold War. The original version of this paper was prepared for the Regional Outlook Forum organized by the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, Singapore on 7 January 2003.     

ASEAN and Northeast Asia: stakes and implications for the European Union–ASEAN partnership

During the immediate aftermath of the 1997 ASEAN crisis, instead of promoting a further “deepening” of the integration process, ASEAN has preferred enlarging its membership and has opened up to its Northeast Asian partners, Japan, China and South Korea. The mounting economic trade flows among those actors necessitates calls for the coherent creation of effective regional structures. China in particular, among the three mentioned countries, has come to the fore with its diplomatic strategies concerning the regional architecture. As results of these recent changes, the structure of power and the nature of the regional system are altering and ASEAN is going through a decisive transition. Taking into consideration the speed of the evolving framework with the enlargement of an East Asian Community, ASEAN would need a new political vision for the region, for the redefinition of its internal balance of power and for the elaboration of a clear approach toward external partners. Crucial problems affect the entire area such as deficit of democracy, wide development gaps among the East Asian countries, the widespread need for economic liberalisation and need for new human and regional security policies. The EU would play a fundamental role in addressing these problems and would be well inspired to avoid considering Southeast Asia as just a mere periphery of China.     

2010年东南亚政治经济发展概述

2010年东南亚地区政治经济形势的发展特点可以概括为“政治上喜忧参半,经济上整体上扬,区域合作缓慢推进”。总体上讲,除泰国外,东南亚地区各国基本上都保持了政治社会的稳定;尽管挑战明显增加,但东盟共同体建设以及由东盟主导的东亚合作仍然缓慢推进;东盟国家整体实现恢复性增长,东南亚成为最具经济活力的地区之一。     

Regionalism in Asia as Disguised Multilateralism: A Critical Analysis of the East Asia Summit and the Trans-Pacific Partnership

Revolving around the concept of ‘Community’ or ‘community’, debate on an Asian region has ostensibly pitted those who proposed an entity limited to East Asia (China, Japan, South Korea and the ten countries of the Association of South East Asian Nations, ASEAN) against those who proposed a much wider region embracing India, North (and, perhaps, South) America, as well as Australasia. Previously these two conceptualisations possessed their eponymous translation in the East Asian Economic Caucus (reincarnated as ASEAN+3) and the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation forum. However, with the creation in 2005 of the East Asian Summit to include India, Australia and New Zealand and, above all, its 2011 enlargement to include the United States and Russia, the contrast between the two conceptualisations of an Asian region has become confused. In order to explain this development, this article suggests that the language of ‘region’ or ‘community’ is a discursive smokescreen disguising changes in approaches to multilateralism. An examination of the East Asia Summit, contrasting it with another recent regional project, the Trans Pacific Partnership, suggests that the actors involved are seeking to ensure the primacy of individual nation states in intergovernmental multilateral relations.     

The New Economic Bilateralism in Southeast Asia: Region-Convergent or Region-Divergent?

A new pattern of bilateralism is evident in Southeast Asianeconomic diplomacy, and this may be broadly viewed from extra-regionaland intra-regional perspectives. Regarding the former, an increasingnumber of states from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations(ASEAN) group have engaged in the Asia-Pacific's new bilateralfree trade agreement project trend, and two ASEAN member states– Singapore and Thailand – have been at its forefront.Regarding the latter dimension, recent developments in intra-ASEANdiplomacy have revealed the emergence of a Singapore–Thailandbilateral axis or alliance on matters of Southeast Asian economicregionalism. These two dimensions of economic bilateralism arestudied in relation to their implications for Southeast Asianor ASEAN-led regionalism. In this context, region-convergentbilateralism can make positive contributions to the developmentof regionalism, whereas region-divergent bilateralism essentiallyundermines regional community-building endeavours. This formsthe conceptual framework for studying the impact of Singaporeand Thailand's active bilateral economic diplomacy upon ASEAN'sown regional economic projects, such as the ASEAN Free TradeArea (AFTA), and also on ASEAN as an organization for fosteringSoutheast Asian economic regionalism generally. It is contendedthat based on both the deeper strategic intentions behind Singapore'sand Thailand's foreign economic policies and wider internationalpolitical economy considerations the region-divergent outcomesare more likely to arise within Southeast Asia from the economicbilateralism they are currently championing.     

奥巴马的东亚政策与地区构建

奥巴马政府上台后的东亚政策不仅显示了美国对东亚地区的重视,还表明了美国在与东亚地区发展关系中将更注重政治、经济、外交等软实力的运用。其思路也逐渐清晰,即以保持美国在东亚地区的战略主导权为核心。而围绕这个核心有三条主线:一是整个战略继续以日美同盟为主轴的军事同盟体系和伙伴国为依托,保持美国在东亚的军事地位;二是加强与东盟等区域合作组织的联系,引导其发展方向符合美国利益;三是以对话方式与中国进行战略博弈,以免中国挑战美国的霸权。东亚地区构建也将出现新的形势:美国跨太平洋区域构建面临多重挑战;东亚合作更加开放与包容;东亚区域合作更加倚重东亚核心国家合作的深入。