中国与南方共同市场经贸合作格局与前景分析

在20世纪90年代以来经济全球化对世界各国产生深刻影响的背景下,巴西、阿根廷、乌拉圭和巴拉圭于1991年建立的南方共同市场发展至今,不仅成为拉美地区最重要的次区域经济合作组织之一,也是世界贸易中的重要一环。近年来,南共市对中国贸易的依存度不断提高,中国与包括南共市国家在内的拉美地区经贸合作也不断扩大。为此,本文将通过对中国与南共市经贸合作的格局,特点及问题进行分析,进而探讨双方未来合作的发展前景以及深化合作所产生的全球性影响。     

论东亚货币基金的创建

亚洲金融危机使得东亚地区的货币合作提上日程。《清迈协议》的达成 ,即“10 +3”(东盟 10国加中、日、韩 )框架下的双边货币互换协议的陆续签定 ,标志着东亚区域货币合作迈出了具有历史意义的第 1步。然而 ,货币互换只是货币合作的最初形态 ,随着东亚区域经济一体化的进展 ,货币互换合作必将向更高层次的货币基金合作的方向发展。东亚货币基金的创建不仅是必要的 ,也是可行的。不久的将来EAMF一定会展现在世界人民面前     

东亚货币合作的模式选择与中国的对策研究

货币合作是当今国际金融领域的热点议题。从已有的货币合作实践看,基于经济高度一体化的欧洲形成了单一货币形式,即欧元产生;相应的在拉美国家也出现了美元化趋势。而按照Mundell金融稳定性三岛的预言,作为世界经济发展重要一极的亚洲并没有出现单一的货币形式。在面对有缺陷的现行国际货币制度之下,东亚国家需要在现实的经济合作基础之上,选择合适的货币合作模式,推动东亚经济和货币一体化进程。这既是区域经济发展的需要,也是区域经济安全的需要。     

拉美国家的一体化与民主化——从巴拉圭政局突变和委内瑞拉加入南共市谈起

2012年6月22日,巴拉圭总统卢戈遭议会弹劾被迫下野.南方共同市场宣布中止巴拉圭的南共市成员国资格.6月29日,南共市正式批准委内瑞拉为其正式成员国.巴拉圭政局突变为南共市的扩大提供了机会.然而,这并非预设的阴谋,因为南共市其他3个成员国作出了中止巴拉圭成员国资格的决定所依据的并非临时制定的规则,而是南共市一体化以来逐渐明晰的民主化条款——1998年签署的《乌斯怀亚议定书》.而委内瑞拉加入南共市的艰难历程也是因巴西和巴拉圭右翼议员在质疑其民主性.民主化已成为当前拉美国家参与一体化的基本条件,美洲国家组织和南共市都为我们提供了类似案例.当前,一体化是拉美各国追求的目标,但需要注意的是,实行完全有效的民主体制已成为加入一体化的先决条件,这个特点越来越明显,已成为研究一体化不可忽视的重要问题.     

区域货币一体化与东亚货币合作

世界经济一体化和区域经济集团化的发展，必然要求区域货币合作。当前世界范围内的区域货币一体化主要以“欧元模式”和“美元化模式”两种途径推进。仿照欧元模式，创设东亚单一货币“亚元”是东亚各国长远的选择。但按照货币联盟标准，东亚单一货币的形成还缺乏必要的条件，因此，应当首先寻求趋同标准较高各国的小范围货币联盟，其他国家待条件成熟再陆续加入。     

东亚货币合作的现状与开展

20世纪90年代世界经济的主要热点之一就是货币与金融问题。自1997年东亚金融危机后 ,东亚地区一直在寻求货币合作 ,以防止危机的再次爆发。本文从危机中各经济体和IMF的作用以及各经济体的现状出发 ,通过分析发现在东亚实行货币一体化还为时过早 ,但可实行一些较低层次的货币合作 ,如联盟性质的协调合作机制 ,分阶段实现建立AMF的目标。     

南方共同市场的发展及其影响

南方共同市场(the Southern Common Market)是在最近10多年来拉美经济一体化重新兴起、原有地区一体化组织又增添活力情况下脱颖而出的。它目前是拉美最大、最有活力的一个次地区经济一体化集团,并号称世界第四大区域性经济集团。 一、基本情况 1991年3月26日,阿根廷、巴西、巴拉圭和乌拉圭4国总统在巴拉圭首都签署《亚松森条约》,宣布建立南方共同市场(以下简称南共市)。该条约于当年11月29日正式生效。1995年1月1日起南共市正式运行,关税联盟开始生效。南共市4个成员国领土面     

欧盟—南共市经贸合作:基础、动力与进展

本文主要采用历史分析的方法,基于历史与现实结合视角,探讨欧盟—南共市经贸合作的动因、进程与影响。经贸合作是欧盟—南共市战略伙伴关系的重要支柱。双方经贸合作具有良好的历史和现实基础,冷战结束后,在多方面动力的推动下,合作程度不断加深并迈向自贸新高地。在促进自贸合作的各种因素中,双方的经济利益与战略考量构成了最主要的驱动力。然而双边关系的不对称性以及一体化程度的差异,使得双方的利益诉求和政策目标不尽相同,由此导致自贸协定谈判进程充满艰难曲折。但欧盟和南共市克服困难最终达成了自贸协定,这既是双方历史合作的深化延续,也是当前国际政治经济形势剧烈变化背景下双方利益需求汇合所导致的结果,因此它不仅对双方意义重大,而且对世界政治经济格局也有重要影响。展望未来,由于依然存在着诸多制约因素和挑战,欧盟—南共市自贸协定的实施与双边经贸关系的发展或仍不会一帆风顺,但双方合作的大趋势不会改变。     

东亚货币合作经济基础的实证分析

随着经济全球化和区域化的发展，世界范围内的区域金融合作也深入开展起来。欧元的成功实践为东亚国家（地区）开展货币合作提供了良好的示范，最优货币区理论的提出及发展为东亚货币合作提供了理论指导。东亚国家货币合作的经济基础有了很大的提高，为进一步开展更深层次的合作提供了保证。东亚国家可以根据各自的不同情况，选择最优合作伙伴，逐步推进次区域货币合作，最后通过长期的努力建立欧盟那样的货币联盟。     

最优货币区理论与东亚货币合作的思考

亚洲金融危机的爆发和区域货币一体化的潮流使东亚货币合作成为东亚各国和地区讨论的热点。1999年东盟10+3会议签署的《东亚合作宣言》及2002年5月的签署《清迈倡议》将东亚货币合作提上了议事日程。2003年8月的东亚合作财长会议决定建立东亚金融合作基金,成立专家组对深化金融合作进行研究。本文结合最优货币区理论对东亚货币合作的可行性进行一些分析,并试图提出一些中国参与东亚货币合作的对策。一、最优货币区理论及其发展“最优货币区”在《新帕尔格雷夫经济学大辞典》中的定义是:“在此区域内,一般的支付手段或是一种单一的共同货币,…     

Mercosur Turns 15: Between Rising Rhetoric and Declining Achievement

Founded in 1991 as an intergovernmental association among four member countries, Mercosur is likely to begin 2006 as intergovernmental and with the same members as when it was founded. Political rhetoric notwithstanding, there has been little deepening and no enlargement in almost 15 years. There have been some achievements, however: increased regional interdependence and political cooperation. This article assesses how much Mercosur has achieved in light of its starting point and the explicit goals set by regional decision makers. It then makes a critical appraisal of the distance between political rhetoric and effective policy implementation, focusing on the role played by the two largest members, Argentina and Brazil. Finally, the article examines the current enlargement, deepening and institutionalisation agenda and assesses its feasibility.     

Empty Promises and Nonincorporation in Mercosur

Why do the member states of the world’s fourth-largest trading block incorporate only about two-thirds of all policies they adopt? This article argues that empty promises are an important reason for Mercosur’s incorporation problems and that Mercosur’s institutional design furthers such a defective behavior. Member governments easily sign agreements whenever they are rewarded for the mere act of doing so. However, if they expect high costs from implementing these policies, they try to avoid incorporation. Since only the last state to incorporate a policy triggers its overall legal validity, Mercosur’s members can easily veto any agreement ex post. In addition to empty promises, mismanaged drafting and incorporation and the abuse of negotiation power also pose important obstacles to incorporation. Free riding, however, does not play a role. Due to the incorporation rules, there can be no externalities that incentivize unilateral defection. The article substantiates the arguments empirically with the multivariate analysis of the complete incorporation record of 1,033 policies adopted between 1994 and 2008.     

Two Critical Passages on the Road to Mercosur

This article challenges two traditional interpretations of the genesis of Mercosur. First, the literature is evenly divided among those who trace back the beginning of the process to the military administrations of Brazil and Argentina, and those who entirely credit their newly democratic administrations. By contrast, this paper argues that integration was initially discussed in a situation of regime asymmetry, Argentina having already returned to democracy and Brazil being still in the final stage of transition. Second, the creation of the common market is generally associated with the 1988 Treaty of Integration signed by Presidents Alfonsín and Sarney of Argentina and Brazil, respectively, while Presidents Menem and Collor are deemed to have simply reduced the period for its implementation from ten to five years. By contrast, this article suggests that in 1988 the project of a common market was still just an aspiration and that in fact that treaty only established a free trade area, its actual progression into a common market being undertaken by the latter two leaders. The first argument tempers the democratic mysticism surrounding integration, the second suggests a partial rehabilitation of the now discredited neoliberal presidents.     

The European Union and Latin America: ‘Transformative power Europe’ versus the realities of economic interests

Relations between the European Union (EU) and regional subgroups in Latin America (Mercosur, the Andean Community and Central America) are clear examples of ‘pure interregionalism’ and provide evidence of the EU's active promotion of regional integration. Within the context of these cases, this article explores what type of international power the EU wields, how interregionalism is embedded in that power, and how it is deployed. Combining strands of literature on EU–Latin American relations, interregionalism, EU external policy and power provides a framework within which interregionalism can be understood as an important normative and practical tool for the EU's external power projection. Drawing on official documentation and interviews with key individuals, the paper highlights the EU's articulation of power in interregional relations and reflects upon its mixed success. It concludes that, while imperial qualities and aspirations can be observed in the EU's penchant for interregionalism, the transformative power of the EU remains limited.     

建立中韩自由贸易区推动东亚经济一体化发展

东亚地区经济一体化合作中呈现了多种机制和路径并存的局面,主要原因是该地区缺乏可以主导地区经济合作的力量和机制。这就为该地区次等力量、次等双边合作关系充分发挥推动地区经济一体化的作用创造了条件、提供了广阔空间,也凸显了它们推动地区经济合作的作用。建立中韩自由贸易区必将激起区域内各种双边关系的调整,推动中、日、韩三边合作、东盟与东北亚 3国的进一步联合,从而促进地区经济一体化发展。当前,中韩政治关系良好,经贸相互依赖关系加强,在地区经济一体化合作上有共同利益,建立中韩双边自由贸易区的条件基本成熟。     

《中日韩投资协定》的构建

签署双边投资协定是国家间相互保护投资的主要法律途径。但是近年来,越来越多的经济一体化协定尤其是自由贸易协定在对贸易自由化问题进行规范的同时,也对投资等问题加以规定,形成了自由贸易协定投资规则与双边投资协定并存的局面。为了加速中日韩经济一体化进程,三国决定先行签署《中日韩投资协定》,作为未来中日韩自由贸易协定的组成部分。在这种背景下,对《中日韩投资协定》构建的基本原则、具体条款的设计、与双边投资协定的关系进行深入探讨,可以对正在进行的中日韩三边投资协定谈判提供可行性建议。     

Regional integration and domestic unrest: A comparative study in Europe and central America

The author investigates the extent to which political integration leads to domestic unrest, attempting to differentiate the impact of integration itself from that of political development in general. A comparative study of the Central American Common Market and the European Common Market, each with a set of control countries matched for level of development, is employed. Data are analyzed at several time intervals. The level of instability associated with integration is shown to vary according to region, and integration and instability are shown not to be universally associated.     

东盟区域经济一体化及其效应

近年来，东盟的区域经济一体化方兴未艾，并出现一系列格局性变化。东盟加快了自身区域一体化步伐，东盟与区外国家的自由贸易区迅速兴起，东盟成员国与区外国家的双边自由贸易协定不断涌现。东盟区域经济一体化的效应开始逐步显现，它不同程度地表现为区内贸易的扩大，产业内分工与贸易的增强，以及对区内外投资的吸引。     

东北亚区域经济一体化发展趋势与实现途径

区域经济一体化已成为世界经济发展的潮流,而东北亚地区(中国、日本和韩国)作为世界第三大区域集团,其一体化进程却非常缓慢。目前,在东北亚地区有两个潜在优先发展的FTA,即一个双边的日本—韩国FTA和一个三边的日本—韩国—中国FTA。根据国际形势和东北亚主要国家的政策变化,可以预测东北亚区域经济一体化将要进入提速阶段。东北亚区域经济一体化从纵向深化和横向拓展的二维发展过程上,都应该选择与欧盟和北美自由贸易协定不同的实现途径。     

Willingness and Opportunity: A Study of Domestic Terrorism in Post-Cold War South Asia

Domestic terrorism, as a form of intrastate violence, has varied widely in South Asia along with the post-Cold War period of global economic integration and political openness. How are these two phenomena—economic integration and emergence of democracies—related to domestic terrorism in South Asia? I argue that resorting to terrorism is a rational choice when individuals'/groups' cost of heterogeneity—deprivation from public goods due to geographical and ideological distance—increases; opportunity is provided by democratization and integration into the global economy. The testable hypotheses derived from the theory are empirically tested on a dataset of five South Asian countries for the time period between 1990 and 2007. The results show that both minority discrimination and presence of unconsolidated democratic institutions increase terrorism in the highly heterogeneous South Asian countries. International trade in the presence of minority discrimination increases homegrown terrorism, but foreign direct investment neither increases nor decreases such incidents.