日本遗弃化学武器销毁工作的进展与现状

日本遗弃在华的化学武器问题由来已久, 给当地居民造成了严重的伤害。1999 年中 日双方签署《关于销毁中国境内日本遗弃化学武器的备忘录》, 但是日方至今尚未拿出最终方案, 销 毁工作还没开始。由于日方的一再拖延, 在国际公约规定的期限内, 日方彻底完成销毁工作的可能 性已经不大。     

日本在军控领域言行不一

近些年来,日本政府在军控方面的实际行动与它二战后一直宣称的角色和对外表态之间有差距,不少实际政策与军控精神相违背,这对国际军备控制产生了负面影响,表现出日本谋求成为军事强国和“正常国家”的强烈愿望。     

国际军控形势新动向

2007年以来,反导及导弹控制等传统军控议题再次升温,防止外空武器化成为新焦点,多边军控进程出现复苏,大国间新一轮军控政策调整已拉开序幕.另一方面,朝核问题的进展与伊核问题的僵持引发国际社会对军控领域多边合作模式的深度思考.如何兼顾核能发展需求与核燃料管理之间的平衡不仅涉及主要国家和相关国际组织对核不扩散主导权的争夺,更关系到未来国际核格局的变化.     

俄罗斯化学裁军履约进程评析

化学裁军是国际军控和裁军的重要问题之一,备受世人关注。作为世界头号化学武器拥有国,俄罗斯的化学裁军进程是国际化学裁军的风向标。自1993年签署《禁止化学武器公约》以来,俄政府履约态度积极,采取了一系列可行的措施,但由于诸多因素的制约致使履约进程步履维艰,销毁化学武器的时限多次后延,最终期限被延至2015年年底,但仍存在变数。本文根据俄文第一手材料对俄销毁化学武器进程进行了深入分析,以期使读者对俄罗斯化学裁军总体情况保持清醒的认识。此外,文中还简要叙述了俄在销毁化学武器中采取的"变废为宝"的一些好做法,以便为有关方面提供有益借鉴。     

国际裁军与军控的历史性成果──禁止化学武器公约

1997年4月29日，在国际军控与裁军领域发生了一件具有历史意义的重大事件──《关于禁止发展、生产、储存和使用化学武器及销毁此种武器的公约》（以下简称《公约》正式生效了。《公约》将无限期有效。《公约》的保存人是联合国秘书长。《公约》机构──禁止化学武器组织设在荷兰海牙。《公约》是在日内瓦多边裁军谈判机构历经24年的谈判，于1992年9月3日由39个成员国协商～致达成协议的。同年11月12日，联大第一委员会决定向大会推荐，并由114个国家提出联合倡议，大会于11月30日本经表决通过联合倡议。1993年1月间～15日在法国巴黎召开了…     

当前国际军控与裁军存在的五大问题

冷战后,国际军控与裁军曾一度取得较大进展,但也面临着单边主义行径和新一轮军备竞赛等一系列消极因素的严峻挑战,前景令人担忧。目前,在国际军控与裁军领域中存在着五大突出问题：(一)大国单边主义思潮抬头。当前,对国际军控与裁军体制的最大挑战因素之一是布什政府奉行单边主义政策,以美国利益为准则,重新审视国际军控条约。美国主管军控事务的高级官员博尔顿称,     

国际军备控制向何处去?

军控与裁军始终是国际安全与战略稳定的“晴雨表”,20世纪 80年代末至 90年代中期,军控领域取得了长足进展。近年来,这方面却出现了一系列消极事态的发展,不但使该领域停滞不前,反而在某些方面出现了倒退,致使国际安全和军控体系受到严重冲击和损害。究其原因主要出自布什政府奉行的单边主义和实用主义政策。新世纪国际军控向何处去,值得人们深思。     

莫迪政府时期印度的军备控制与裁军政策

莫迪执政以来,虽然在印度内政外交上带来诸多新气象,但在核军控与裁军问题上大体延续了1998年印度核试验以来的基本政策立场,始终坚持全球性、无歧视、可核查的彻底和全面核裁军原则。在此基础上,印度政府积极参与国际多边与双边军控及裁军机制,有选择地推动国际军控与裁军事业。在这一过程中,印度的国家安全与大国雄心及荣誉是影响印度军控与裁军政策的核心要素。随着莫迪执政以来印度实力与地位的继续提升,印度军控与裁军政策的独立性更加明显,印度对核军备的重视有增无减,这造成了印度关于倡导全面核裁军政策宣示中"夸夸其谈"的特点更加突出。     

美国军控单边主义对美欧安全关系的影响

布什政府执政以来在军控领域奉行单边主义政策, 频频挑战国际多边军控条约 。这 一立场使美欧在军控问题上的分歧暴露无疑, 严重影响了大西洋两岸的关系 。 今后美欧安全关系 在继续维持的同时, 同盟内部的不信任感也将不断加剧 。美国在军控领域的单边主义, 不利于美国 的长期利益。     

“中国军控与裁军协会”在京成立

中国军控与裁军协会（以下简称“协会”）于２００１年８月２１日在北京成立。协会是全国性、非营利的非政府组织。协会的宗旨是：组织协调全国民间军控、裁军和不扩散活动，以利于推动国际军控与裁军进程，维护世界和平。 近年来，国际上非政府组织发展迅速，对国际政治、经济、军事、文化、社会等各个方面发挥着越来越重要的作用，已成为国际舞台上一支不可忽视的力量。军控与裁军关系，世界和平与安全，一直是非政府组织关注的重点领域之一。各国非政府组织对国际军控与裁军进程的发展，以及对各国军控政策的制定和实施发挥重要影响。当…     

全球安全治理视域下的自主武器军备控制

随着人工智能的飞速进展，不断智能化的自主武器日益显现出伦理和安全风险，使得限制或禁止自主武器成为全球安全治理领域的新兴议题。相比其他军控对象，自主武器军控进程在过去几年中获得较快推进，其中《特定常规武器公约》会议已决定设立政府专家组专门探讨自主武器问题。文章系统梳理了自主武器军备控制的概念、伦理和安全争议，旨在通过这种梳理更好地理解自主武器军控进程发展的动因，并对这一进程的未来走向做出预测。当前，自主武器军备控制的主要动因集中在道德层面，特别是让机器自主决策杀伤引发的伦理忧虑。而从安全层面看，自主武器蕴涵的安全风险在其他新兴技术领域同样存在，而发展和使用自主武器带来的战略红利依然显著，这使得主要国家推动自主武器军控的意愿并不强烈。在权力政治与道德政治的博弈下，自主武器军控在可预见的时期内将难以形成实质性成果，稍有可能的是通过“软法”等非约束性方式塑造一定的国际规范。在这个过程中，中国可以发挥更加积极主动的作用，在确保战略利益的同时营造有利的大国形象。     

The enemy within: rethinking arms availability in sub-Saharan Africa

Over the past decade small arms and light weapons availability has been singled out as one of sub-Saharan Africa's highest profile challenges. Yet the construction of the threat of arms availability as one of authorised trade and illicit trafficking across international borders has resulted in a narrow focus on regulating lawful exports and imports and brokers. While these are real and legitimate concerns, the authors contend that small arms and light weapons availability should be re-evaluated as a complex social phenomenon involving dynamic supply and demand dimensions. A limited emphasis on controlling authorised transfers to war zones glosses over the challenges of illegal markets, the gradual emergence of national arms production capacities across Africa and the systematic diversion of weapons and ammunition surplus from the domestic stocks of security services into civilian hands. It also obscures a more dynamic landscape of armed violence across the continent which extends beyond war zones. Whilst the conventional interpretation of arms availability is favoured by African diplomats and international arms control experts, such a reading potentially obscures the weaknesses of security governance and the myriad motivations and means shaping small arms and light weapons acquisition and misuse amongst armed groups and civilians.     

Weapons Transfers as a Soft Security Issue in Eastern Europe: Legal and Illicit Aspects

The article looks into the problem of weapons transfers in Europe from the perspective of soft security. While the military security dimension of the issue has traditionally received sufficient coverage, weapons transfers also have important implications for soft security of the European states, both in terms of the issues they are linked to, and policy measures designed to control the proliferation of weapons. The soft security aspects of arms transfers are outlined in the introduction, while the subsequent sections look into the trends of both legal and illegal movement of weapons in and from Europe, and policy measures controlling the spread of both major conventional weapons, and light weapons and small arms at the global, regional (European), and national levels. The conclusion assesses the effectiveness of these measures, and implications thereof for European security.     

Rethinking small arms control in Africa: it is time to set an armed violence reduction agenda

Policy-makers and practitioners concerned with small arms control have traditionally focused narrowly on ‘supply-side’ forms of regulation and containment. Concerned that excessive arms availability might destabilise fragile and post-war countries, they typically advance a host of activities such as weapons embargoes, export and import controls, disarmament, demobilisation and reintegration programmes and weapons collection schemes. These initiatives often achieve fewer dividends than expected. This article argues for a broader conceptualisation of ‘availability’ that accounts for both supply and demand dimensions. Availability would thus extend from arms production and diverse forms of weapons circulation to the manifold factors shaping acquisition and the multiple ways arms are used and misused. A broad spectrum treatment directly acknowledges the many faces of armed violence and allows for more sophisticated diagnosis, treatment and cure. This article considers how a host of ‘second generation’ armed violence prevention and reduction activities might enhance efforts to promote security in the aftermath of Africa's wars.     

The Geography of the International System: The CShapes Dataset

Sceptics of globalization attribute the proliferation of light weapons to economic openness. Increasing globalization apparently weakens public authority, leading to social disarray, anomic violence, and general conditions that make handgun ownership and use more likely. Pro-globalists might argue contrarily that trade openness can raise the premium on peace as violence is bad for business. Moreover, greater interdependence allows the diffusion of anti-proliferation norms and facilitates cooperative behavior among trading partners for stemming the demand for and proliferation of small arms. Using a unique dataset on small arms imports, we find that greater openness to trade and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) lowers small arms imports per capita. A policy measure of economic freedom is associated with higher small arms imports, but this association seems to be explained entirely by the association between economic freedom and strong bureaucracies. States that are de facto more open to the global trading system are less likely to be inundated with these weapons, but richer, better-governed countries import more small arms. Global policy should pay closer attention to the seepage of these weapons from the relatively wealthy, who manufacture and buy them in larger quantities, to the poor, among whom the ‘problems’ associated with small arms are often manifested. Curbing those factors that encourage globalization, however, would be counterproductive to reducing the trade in small arms and light weapons.     

International Convention for the Peaceful Use of Cyberspace

Cyber weapons now are an extension of state power. In hopes of gaining a strategic advantage, many countries including the United States, Russia and China are developing offensive cyber capabilities to disrupt political, economic, and social institutions in competitor nations. These activities have led to a cyber arms race that is spiraling out of control. This imminent global threat challenges the international community to be proactive. The purpose of this article is to propose an international convention to throttle the development, proliferation and use of cyber weapons before they cause electronic Armageddon. We begin by examining three successful efforts in arms control and use the lessons learned to draft a convention that can serve as a starting point for formal multilateral negotiations.     

Art and disarmament: turning arms into ploughshares in Mozambique

Following the Renamo/Frelimo conflict and the 1992 Rome Accord ending hostilities, the Christian Council of Mozambique undertook to remove arms from the civilian population by trading them for development tools. The weapons were given to artists associated with a collective in the capital, Maputo. The weapons were cut into pieces and converted to sculptures that subsequently focused international attention on the Tools for Arms project, or TAE (Transformação de Armas em Enxadas). While succeeding in drawing attention to the proliferation of arms among civilians, and collecting a considerable number of arms and munitions, the project encountered difficulties in relating the production of art to the overall initiative. This paper examines the aspect of the project that produced art from weapons, with insights and observations based on fieldwork conducted for CUSO and the Canadian International Development Agency (CIDA).     

Selling to Both Sides: The Effects of Major Conventional Weapons Transfers on Civil War Severity and Duration

Civil wars are primarily fought with small and light arms, but the availability of major conventional weapons to states and rebels can alter the nature of the war being fought. This study explores the impact of major conventional weapons transfers on civil war severity and duration. By using a recipient based approach to arms transfers, I find rebel acquisition of major conventional weapons from international sources leads to conflict escalation and deadlier conflicts. State importation of major conventional weapons is associated with longer conflicts. These findings provide researchers a means to account for rebel capabilities in civil war research and policy makers insight to limit the destructiveness of civil wars.     

Arms Acquisition Patterns and the Dynamics of Armed Conflict: Lessons from the Niger Delta

Arms acquisition is a crucial venture for armed insurgency groups for carrying out their militant activities. I argue that the specific manner in which these groups obtain weapons may have important consequences for the dynamics of violent intrastate conflict. While most previous studies of the relationship between arms acquisition and armed conflict have focused solely on the impact of arms availability, in this article I analyze the impact of two specific aspects of arms acquisition patterns—the methods and the degree of leadership control—on the dynamics and nature of armed conflict in a qualitative case study of the armed conflict in the Niger Delta (Nigeria) between 1995 and 2005. I conclude that the specific arms acquisition method and the degree of leadership control over this process have strongly affected the dynamics of the conflict.     

Democracy and Nuclear Arms Control—Destiny or Ambiguity?

Is there a particularly democratic way of dealing with nuclear arms control? Against the background of democratic peace (DP) theory, and using Immanuel Kant's writing as a starting point, this article argues that democracies should indeed develop a preference for arms control, but that Liberalism as well as the nature of nuclear weapons opens the possibility for contingent developments within a DP framework. While DP theory can thus account for the existence of variance, we maintain that a social constructivist complement based on role, identity, and enemy perception can best explain why a given democracy follows a specific path. Case studies of six Western democracies reveal a considerable variance in their nuclear arms control policies, which can indeed be traced back to the countries' respective roles, identities, and images of the Kantian “unjust enemy.”