日本民主党实现政权交替可能性分析

"政党不信"与民主党突起,2003年日本众议院选举形成了民主党与自民党对峙的两大政党格局。然而,从众议院选举以及政党的分化过程来看,民主党实现政权交替的条件尚未成熟。其一,民主党的选举纲领,与英国政党比较,基本沿用了传统的"选举后模式",还未能向"政策选择可能性"的政权纲领转换;其二,由于在野党分崩离析与整合困境,民主党尚未形成强大的政权交替的推动力量;其三,在以小选举区制为中心的选举制度下,自民党"一党超强"地位仍未改变。     

日本民主党执政后的鸠山外交

2009年8月31日，日本第45届众议院选举揭晓，民主党以绝对优势获得大胜。9月16日，民主党党首鸠山由纪夫顺利当选日本首相。这次选举实现了以日本两大政党为主体的政权轮替，在日本政治史上具有重要意义。从国际大背景看，这次日本民主党上台与美国民主党上台有相似之处。这次大选不仅对日本国内政治和外交，而且对日美、中日关系等，都可能产生深远的影响。     

萨马拉斯：一波三折中诞生的希腊新总理

今年6月17日，希腊议会选举重新举行，新民主党再次荣登榜首，且得票率较前一次选举有所增加，得以与另外两个政党组成联合政府。新民主党领袖安东尼斯·萨马拉斯（Antonis Samaras）出任政府总理。     

美国中期选举结果及其对奥巴马执政的影响

美国中期选举结果大局已定，共和党在国会赢得自二战以来的最大胜利，并在地方层面有所斩获。导致该选举结果的最主要原因是选民对奥巴马执政的不满，而共和党竞选策略得当以及民主党在选举中存在先天不足等也是民主党此次败北的客观原因。此次选举形成的府会“强分治”格局，将严重影响奥巴马余任施政空间，对美国的内外政策产生重要影响。     

2009年日本众议院选举与日本政治的发展变化

2009年8月日本的众议院选举,民主党击败自民党获得政权,党首鸠山由纪夫出任首相。这一被媒体称之为政治大地震的选举结果,突出表现了日本国内政治生态的结构性变化,必将推进日本政坛以自民党、民主党两大政党为中心的政治格局的形成,传统革新政党的生存空间萎缩,政界整体将更趋保守化倾向。然而,由此认定日本从此就会形成稳定的两大政党制度化交替执政的体制,还为时过早。2010年7月参院选将是检验民主党的一个重要节点。     

美国中期选举结果

1998年11月3日,美国举行了国会中期选举,选出了众议院全部435名议员,改选了34名参议员和36名州长。选举结果为:参议院两党的席位维持不变,仍是共和党55席,民主党45席;众议院共和党由228席减至223席,民主党由206席增至211席,独立人士1席;共和党继续以多数控制参众两院。新国会(第106届国会)将在明年1月4日正式启动。 这次选举打破了64年来美国会中期选举的“历史定式”,影响深远。民主党在共和党发起对克林顿总统弹劾的不利状况下参选,结果在参陡朱失一席,在众院净增5席,彻底打破了执     

美国新一届国会两党力量对比及其对华态度

美国新一届国会两党力量对比及其对华态度高唤栋在１９９６年１１月８日与美国总统选举同时举行的美国第１０５届国会选举中，共和党继续以多数席位控制了国会参众两院，这是６８年来共和党首次连续在两届国会中占多数。民主党继续控制白宫、共和党继续控制国会的互相制衡...     

驴攻象守:美国2006年中期选举前瞻

即将到来的美国2006年中期选举是2008年总统选举之前最重要的一次选举。其结果将决定美国国会的政党分野和权力布局,而且将影响2008年总统选举的议题设定和民调走向。截至目前,本次中期选举呈现出三个特点:选民普遍对现任议员不满,大部分选民思变心切;共和党的支持率下降,相对多数的选民表示支持民主党;布什总统的民意支持率明显偏低。伊拉克问题和国内经济问题是本次中期选举的中心议题。从目前的选举形势来看,民主党方面将略占优势,整体选情呈现“驴攻象守”态势。     

东南亚大事记

(2011年7月1～31日)●3日,泰国举行自1932年实行君主立宪制以来的第26次国会下议院选举。共有42个政党参加此次大选,截至4日凌晨,根据98%选票的统计结果,为泰党暂时以264票比160票的绝对优势完胜民主党,泰国执政党民主党党首、看守政府总理阿披实3日晚承认选举失利,并祝贺为泰党头号议员候选人英拉即将成为泰国历史上首位女总理。     

日本政局的困局

在日本第22届参议院选举中,执政不足一年的民主党惨败,日本政坛再度形成执政党与在野党分别在众参两院占据多数的"拧劲国会";在此背景下即将举行的民主党代表选举被视为危机选举。以上因素使日本政局及中日关系充满变数和不确定性,也给两大政党化中的日本政党政治带来挑战和机遇。     

2011年新加坡大选中工人党的竞选策略探析

在2011年国会大选中,新加坡工人党在保住后港单选区的基础上,在阿裕尼集选区击败外交部长杨荣文率领的人民行动党团队,共取得了6个议席。这是自新加坡1988年集选区制度实行以来,反对党第一次战胜人民行动党拿下集选区,也是1966年以来反对党取得议席最多的一次大选。这届大选被认为是新加坡的政治分水岭。工人党之所以能取得如此战绩,是由于它采取了正确的竞选策略：工人党整合人才资源,物色到了可媲美人民行动党的候选人;抓住转战时机,刘程强适时走出后港;提出了“第一世界国会”“副司机”等全国性课题;不为反对而反对,打造理智的建设性反对党形象;挟上届大选余威,综合考量历史、地理因素;准确把握竞选过程中的细节。     

The Mahathir effect in Malaysia’s 2018 election: the role of credible personalities in regime transitions

The 14th Malaysian General Elections (Pilihanraya Umum, 14, PRU 14) in 2018 proved to be a watershed election as Barisan Nasional (National Front, BN) lost power for the first time in history. Pakatan Harapan (Alliance of Hope, PH), led by former BN leader and Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad, captured the majority of parliamentary seats. This article analyses the impact of Mahathir specifically, and credible personalities in general, in unseating dominant one-party regimes. I argue that credible personalities are vital in causing transitions in dominant one-party systems. Explanations on transitions from authoritarian regimes in the literature have typically revolved around incumbent weakness and opposition strength. While dissatisfaction toward the regime is a necessary condition for transition, it is not sufficient. Personalities which can adequately appeal to the masses are important to bridge the credibility gap which the opposition may otherwise have to grapple with. Mahathir’s presence in the opposition was crucial to PH’s victory, as he provided the credibility boost which the opposition needed. This was particularly important for Malay voters. This study is situated within the literature on parties, elections and democratization.     

Procedural justice and perceived electoral integrity: the case of Korea's 2012 presidential election

Recently, there has been an increase in the number of scholars focusing on why voters around the world differ in their evaluations of electoral integrity. One group of scholars contends that perceived electoral integrity is determined by partisan status according to election results. Another group claims that individual perception of election quality is influenced by such political cues as institutional support for election management bodies. Although the two groups have developed this subject differently, they both underestimate the degree to which the election process affects electoral integrity. Based on the theory of procedural justice, this study argues that the more problems citizens see in the electoral process, the more negatively they tend to rate elections. An analysis of a public opinion survey conducted immediately after the December 2012 presidential election in South Korea provides credible evidence for our theoretical expectations and presents an important implication for elections of new democracies in a comparative perspective.     

Who wins the most when everybody wins? Predicting candidate performance in an authoritarian election

ABSTRACT

What explains the variation in vote shares received by candidates in single-party authoritarian elections where everybody wins? The scholarly literature has often ignored institutional variations, treated all authoritarian elections as similar, and explained the variation of vote shares as a consequence of clientelism, coercion or electoral fraud. We employ a unique data set for Cuba’s 2013 National Assembly election to show an alternative answer: even in authoritarian regimes, institutional settings shape voters’ behaviour and candidates’ strategies. When the number of candidates on the ballot equals the number of parliamentary seats and yet voters can express some preference among multiple candidates, valence can become a predictor of candidate performance. Voters reward high-quality politicians, but not incumbents or Communist Party members, while candidates have no incentives to actively distinguish themselves and converge toward the general support of the single united slate.     

The impact of election frequency and crises upon the arms race

This paper examines the impact of election frequency and crises upon the arms race via the computer simulation introduced in Dacey and Pendegraft (1988). We answer two basic questions. First, in an arms race are there advantages to holding elections frequently (i.e., on a short interval) as opposed to infrequently (i.e., on a long interval)? Second, do crises have an influence on the outcome of arms races, and if so, how?

The answers to these questions are straightforward. For the first question, we find that in round‐robin tournament play (i.e., traditional Axelrod‐type play) the advantage rests with the short election interval players, and in inter‐group play it rests with the long election interval players. For the second question we find that crises have a pronounced effect, and the size of the effect depends on the relationship between election frequency and the frequency with which losing players are removed from the tournament. [Key Words: Election frequency, Crises, Arms Race]     

美国选举安全问题:以2016年和2020年总统大选为例

2016年美国总统大选暴露了长期存在于该国选举体系中的风险,"选举安全"迅速成为当代美国国家安全与国土安全领域的重要议题。美国选举安全涉及网络安全、社会安全、政治安全与军事安全,体现出"复合安全问题"的特质。美国联邦与各州政府试图从降低关键基础设施风险、重建选民信任、减少部门壁垒以及填补机制缺失四个层面入手,系统性化解存在于选举系统的各类安全威胁。2020年美国大选期间,原有选举安全风险得到一定程度的缓解,但美国国家安全体制及文化与其选举安全体系的运行逻辑之间仍存在多层矛盾,特别是美国选举体系的产业市场与创新之间的矛盾、国家安全与"言论自由"之间的矛盾、"全政府"与"地方权"之间的矛盾、"网络自由"与"网络主权"之间的矛盾。这些矛盾会长期存在,将使利益攸关方不断发生龃龉,阻碍相关政策深入推进,最终导致美国在选举安全治理上将一直面临难以克服的困境。     

A framework for the systematic study of election quality

This article offers the beginnings of a methodology for assessing the quality of a national election, its freeness, fairness and administrative efficacy. The historical lack of a comprehensive framework of analysis has compelled election observers to make pronouncements on the basis of incomplete evidence, usually gathered on the day of the vote and count. It has allowed international observation missions to ‘call’ the results of elections on the basis of political expediency rather than the facts of the case. The intent in this article is not to offer a foolproof method for categorizing election quality but rather to lay out a framework which we believe is more comprehensive and meaningful than anything that has come before. To illustrate its workings the article scores six multi-party elections: two in established democracies – Australia and Denmark 2001– and four in fledgling democracies – South Africa 1994 and 2004, East Timor 2001 and Zimbabwe 2002. The framework outlined here will make it possible to identify patterns of success and failure in the fairness of elections. It should enable all kinds of observers from academics and election administrators to election observers to spotlight the weak areas of election administration, where a government might then choose to focus its efforts to improve the quality of subsequent elections.     

析2008年美国大选的政治生态及其影响

2008年美国大选在即，经济问题仍将是选民的首要关注点。美国的政治版图和力量格局正在经历新的调整，党派政治分裂的局面难以改观。这种政治生态中的两极化与选民期待的“超越党争”的大选气氛相互交织，将会对美国政府的未来政策以及美国对外关系走势产生重要影响。     

Institutional Reforms and the Politics of Inequality Reproduction: The Case of the League of Nations’ Council Crisis in 1926

ABSTRACT

This contribution to the special issue explores how institutional reforms are shaped by and feed back into the politics of inequality reproduction. IR has recently begun to more closely study how hierarchies intersect. This article uses the analytical concept of “interlinkages” to grasp how international organisations couple intra-organisational patterns of unequal representation to extra-organisational social hierarchies. It empirically investigates the forms and effects of such interlinkages through a case study of the League of Nations’ Council crisis and reform in 1926. The reform reaffirmed the most prominent interlinkage: the restriction of permanent membership to states recognised as “great powers”. In addition, the reform created two new types of non-permanent seats which changed the pattern of representation of small states. Overall, the case study shows that the interlinkages and their effects were generated by an interplay of formal design and informal understandings both at the level of permanent and non-permanent seats.     

Is There a Local Dimension to Modern Election Campaigns? Party Activists’ Perceptions of the Media and Electoral Coverage of Canadian Constituency Politics

Modern election campaign studies focus on national dimensions at the expense of attending to local campaigns in legislative elections. This is also true of analyses of media coverage and impact of election campaigns. This paper examines the local dimension of media and election campaigns across a wide range of diverse constituency contexts in Canada in order to identify the political, socioeconomic, and geographic determinants of constituency party associations ability to attract local media attention during an election campaign. We also examine the role of these features of the constituency settings and explain variations in satisfaction with the medias coverage of the local campaign.