俄著名人口学家扎伊翁奇科夫斯卡娅的移民观

俄罗斯著名人口学家冉娜·安东诺夫娜·扎伊翁奇科夫斯卡娅现为俄罗斯科学院国民经济预测研究所人口流动室负责人、独联体被迫移民问题研究中心主任、独联体国家和波罗的海三国移民独立研究委员会主席。自上个世纪90年代中期以来，她针对俄罗斯的外来移民尤其是中国移民问题发表大量论述，其学术观点在俄罗斯反响较大，也引发很多争议。     

当代俄罗斯移民政策透析

苏联的解体导致大量的难民、被遣返的俄罗斯族人涌入刚刚独立的俄罗斯，同时，90年代中期和进入新世纪以来，由波罗的海国家、中亚地区、乌克兰、白俄罗斯以及中国等人口稠密地区移入俄罗斯的劳动移民逐渐增多。移民随之也成为俄罗斯政府和社会各界关注的一系列重要问题之一。而在移民过程中，制度和政策是影响移民的一个核心因素。     

浅析俄罗斯移民政策及其对中国移民的影响

20世纪90年代初中俄签订互免签证协议后,大量中国人跨过边界来到俄罗斯寻找致富机会,这引起俄罗斯政府的恐慌和担心,开始对中国人逐渐实行越来越严格的移民政策。这些法律和规定为赴俄的中国人合法居留和就业筑起难以逾越的障碍,将大多数劳动移民排挤到非法领域。严格的移民政策影响了两国的经济贸易发展,我们应该采取相应的针对性措施改善目前状况,促使中俄两国关系稳步发展。     

俄罗斯的非法移民问题

俄罗斯移民潮中的非法移民 最近10年，既是经济全球化扩大过程中人口迁徙的规模和范围逐步扩大的阶段，也是独联体各国处于构建民族国家的时期。在此背景下，独联体各国领导人纷纷呼吁境外的民族同胞回到“历史的祖国”以建立民族国家。受这些因素的影响，独联体各国，特别是俄罗斯人口迁徙流动得非常频繁。据联合国有关资料，截至2005年俄罗斯移民总数已达1210万人，占世界移民总数的6％，     

俄罗斯东部地区劳动力资源与移民问题

近十几年来俄罗斯人口持续减少,特别是其东部地区人口减速令人震惊,而且人口减少已形成难以逆转之势。俄东部地区地广人稀,劳动力资源缺乏问题长期存在。人口锐减导致劳动力不足问题加剧。人口问题对俄东部地区乃至整个俄罗斯经济增长构成现实威胁。俄政府鼓励多生育等措施不奏效,人口形势继续恶化。选择移民补充人口和劳动力是现实的解决办法。俄调整和完善国家吸引移民政策势在必行。     

俄格冲突与俄罗斯独联体政策的未来

俄格军事冲突是冷战后俄格矛盾的一次释放.透过这一事件,独联体建设的诸多问题凸显出来.独联体未来的命运成为人们关注的焦点,俄罗斯未来政策的转变将对此起决定性作用.为了使独联体这一组织形式更具吸引力和更具效力,俄罗斯有必要改变其对独联体国家关系的行为方式,加强独联体组织功能建设,健全联合治理机制,提供更多的公共物品,承担力所能及的责任.唯有如此,独联体组织机制的功能才会被激活,并最终有利于俄罗斯国家实力的全面提升.     

《2025年前俄罗斯联邦国家移民政策构想》解读

2012年6月俄联邦政府出台了规划未来13年移民政策的构想,俄罗斯各联邦区和联邦主体将依据该移民政策构想制定本地区移民政策的计划和措施,解决俄罗斯社会日趋尖锐的人口危机和移民问题。该移民构想分三个阶段实施,制定移民细则、有序推进移民细则和措施的实施,有效调控区域移民的动态平衡,构建科学的移民模式。     

俄罗斯远东移民问题浅析简

苏联解体后,俄罗斯远东地区人口不断减少,人口负增长和人口外流导致该地区劳动力资源短缺.来自独联体和东北亚国家的移民成为远东地区重要的劳动力补充,但高技术人才数量不足.俄政府应采取措施发展经济、改善社会服务条件、鼓励生育、制定合理的移民政策,以保障国家安全利益与经济利益均衡发展.     

欧盟移民治理:建立统一移民政策的尝试

本文回顾了二战以来西欧国家移民政策的发展演变过程,指出了欧盟东扩背景下欧洲移民新趋向会对欧盟现有移民政策提出挑战,使欧洲移民政策面临困境.为应对日趋复杂和日益严重的移民问题,欧盟对其成员国的移民政策进行了多方面的协调,就建立统一移民政策进行了艰难的尝试.本文结合国外最新研究成果,对今后若干年内欧盟移民的趋势以及欧盟移民政策的调整方向做出预测,指出欧盟目前正在实施多层级移民治理的模式.     

拉美裔移民对美国大选的影响及美国移民政策的调整

作为美国最大的少数族裔,拉美裔选民对美国大选的关键性影响在于他们在"摇摆州"所具有的战略地位。1959年古巴革命和墨西哥非法移民的增多导致美国西半球移民政策明朗化。拉美裔移民的迅速增加带来了非法移民和社会融入性等问题,在美国引起越来越多的争议。作为美国首位非洲裔总统,奥巴马的身世和背景为他弥合种族分歧提供了舞台,民主党控制国会参、众两院有利于奥巴马将来移民改革法案的通过。但是,在奥巴马的任期初期,移民问题不是其政府要解决的优先议题。金融风暴、经济低迷以及特别利益集团对移民问题的态度将会使美国移民制度全面改革的推行遇到更多的障碍。     

Labor migration numbers and rights: do they trade off or advance together?

This article reconsiders the argument that as labor immigration policy opens, it must also become more restrictive in terms of immigrant rights. After discussing this tradeoff logic, positing a negative relationship between external (numbers) and internal (rights) labor migration policy, it then extends the underlying political model to show that when accounting for the lobbying pressure of firms seeking high skill labor, a very different expectation emerges. This political accommodation argument predicts a positive relationship between external and internal migration policy, or that policy related to labor immigration openness and immigrant rights should advance together, although not necessarily quickly or at the same rate. It then tests these competing propositions using a new dataset that sorts labor migration policy changes among 38 advanced industrial democracies from 1995 to 2016 into these two dimensions, finding a significant positive relationship between them.     

俄罗斯政治经济形势及外交走向

本文论述了普京执政以来的俄罗斯政治经济形势及外交走向.政治形势趋向稳定,经济形势有所好转,外交走向日益明朗.俄罗斯开始进入一个由乱转治的历史转折新时期.在政治方面俄罗斯实现了新旧政权的平稳过渡,调整了政权结构,打击了车臣分裂主义势力,缓解了社会矛盾,维护了国家统一;在经济方面修正了经济改革路线,调整了经济政策,治理并改善了经营和投资环境,促进了经济增长;在外交方面维护了叶利钦后期外交政策的连续性,寻找了自己在世界多极化新格局中的位置,以本民族利益为中心调整了外交政策,加强了与独联体国家的联系,改善了同西方大国的关系,推进了与东方国家的关系.但是,由于普京的内外政策尚未完全定型,改革的道路崎岖不平,经济缺乏增长的坚实基础,此外,国力锐减又限制了与西方大国外交活动的空间,所以俄罗斯的社会经济发展仍会遇到一定的阻力与困难.     

俄罗斯与独联体国家关系:新趋势与新战略

独联体地区的一体化进程与多元化趋势之间一直存在着激烈的竞争关系,俄罗斯力求在该地区重建统一的经济和安全空间,却遭到该地区多元化趋势的强烈抵制。面对无法阻挡的多元化趋势,俄罗斯与独联体国家关系已经出现了重大变化,即从过去那种以俄罗斯为中心,要求别国无条件服从,谋求包罗万象、整体统一的"一体化"模式转向一种新的多边互动的菜单式合作模式。     

关于黑龙江省对俄劳务合作的研究

1988年以来,黑龙江省对俄劳务合作得到了较快发展,双方的合作达到了一定的规模,合作领城逐渐拓宽,中长期合作项目增多。但受中俄双方政策调整的影响,黑龙江省对俄劳务合作也出现过波动。对俄劳务合作对于缓解省内就业压力、进一步开拓俄罗斯市场、实现对俄经贸关系的战略升级都具有重要意义,为此应适度对俄投资,开展多种经营,实现多元化发展,全面提高劳务人员素质,争取国家给予相应政策支持。     

梅德韦杰夫外交:特点、原因及前景分析

梅德韦杰夫执政以来,其外交特点是:重视独联体,调整政策但区别对待;重视东方,中印平衡;对西方继续强硬但不破裂,进而改善,对美欧有所区别;利用俄优势,重视能源外交、体育外交、军事外交和大国外交;对国际事务提出很多新观点、新建议,使政府在实施俄罗斯外交政策的分量加重。其原因既有俄罗斯国力上升,也有国内的梅普组合因素,还有国际上的美国因素和中国因素。今后梅德韦杰夫外交将更加重视经济安全、能源外交和军事发展。对华将继续友好,战略借重加大,但发展空间有限,必须寻求新的增长点。在对西方关系上,在继承普京时期强硬外交的基础上进一步调整、改善、缓和与西方的关系。     

Labor Diplomacy: A Revitalized Aspect of U.S. Foreign Policy in the Era of Globalization

This article analyzes how and why labor diplomacy has become an important element of American foreign policy in recent years. "Labor diplomacy"—a term coined by practitioners in the Department of State—refers to the work performed principally by labor officers (also called labor attachés) at American embassies around the world and, more specifically, the advocacy and promotion of core labor standards within the context of U.S. human rights and international trade policy. The five internationally recognized core labor standards, as developed by the International Labor Organization (ILO), are: freedom of association; the right of collective bargaining; the elimination of forced labor; the effective abolition of child labor; and the elimination of discrimination in employment and occupation. The article explores the economic, political, and bureaucratic factors that contributed to the revitalization of labor diplomacy during the 1990s. These include: a growing appreciation for the linkage between labor standards and trade in the globalized economy; the Clinton administration's decision to pursue a closer relationship with the AFL-CIO, particularly after the 1997 "fast-track" debacle; and the changing bureaucratic dynammics within the Department of State. The article also reviews U.S. initiatives, both through the ILO and unilaterally, to strengthen respect for core labor standards around the world, and how these efforts have helped shape American policy toward the World Trade Organization. The article concludes with an analysis of the outcome of the recent WTO Ministerial Meeting in Seattle and a prognosis on the future of labor diplomacy.     

国际经济危机背景下东北地区对俄劳务输出研究

对俄劳务合作是东北地区与俄罗斯经济合作一项重要的内容,对于双方的经济发展起到了极大的促进的作用。但是国际危机爆发以来又给双方的劳务合作提出了新的要求,也出现了新的问题,双方应该共同努力,克服经济危机带来的的不利影响,使东北地区对俄劳务合作迈上一个新的台阶。     

The Russian case for military intervention in Georgia: international law,norms and political calculation

Abstract

The Russian military intervention in Georgia in August 2008 has raised significant questions about Russian thinking and practice on the legitimate use of military force abroad, especially in relation to neighbour states. The arguments advanced by Russia to justify this campaign show how Russian interpretations of customary international law as well as norms related to the use of force have served as an instrument of state policy, rather than being rooted in any broader international consensus. The Russian discourse in this context about sovereignty, self-determination and the legitimacy of recognising South Ossetia and Abkhazia as states appears similarly to be strongly influenced by political self-interest and Russian views about its entitlement within the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) region. Among Russian claims, Moscow's commitment to support its ‘citizens’ abroad has been particularly controversial. This article examines these issues and also the possibility that, through its justifications for waging war against Georgia, Russia is more broadly contesting the interpretation of certain international norms, that it regards as essentially constructed by Western states. Some potential implications of these legal and normative arguments for future Russian policy in the CIS region, including Ukraine, are also examined.     

Evidence of Russia's Bush Doctrine in the CIS1

Abstract

The article discusses the emergence of a Russian version of the Bush doctrine in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) and Russian officials’ conceptual stretching of the strategic culture embodied in the National Security Concept (NSC) and the Military Doctrine (MD) from 2000 onwards. While these documents seem to cherish multilateralism and United Nations (UN) primacy in questions of global and regional security, terrorist attacks on Russia proper have engendered a more assertive approach to regional security issues in the Caucasus and Central Asia and brought Russian officials to consider unilateral pre-emptive strikes against terrorist bases. In the case of the Caucasus, Russia has been striking against terrorist bases on Georgian territory and contributed to constructing a failed state, whereas in the Central Asian case, Russia has sought to revitalise the defunct CIS security framework and pledge assistance to ‘allies’ in the fight against terrorism. The article argues that the war against terrorism has given Russia a new footing in the CIS. The issue of security is more salient, as is the reliance on military force to facilitate it.