Outside looking in: non-accession to the WTO

Since its institutional birth in 1947, the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) / World Trade Organization (WTO) has mushroomed from 23 original contracting parties to 157 members as of September 2012. Another 28 countries are currently observers, each at varying stages of the accession process. WTO members and observers cover some 99 per cent of the world's population and over 99 per cent of global trade. However, there are still 13 states outside the multilateral rules-based trading system. This paper argues that existing explanations of membership and accession do not fully explain why these states remain outside the WTO, with implications for membership in international institutions generally. The paper tests hypotheses of non-membership based on a lack of willingness (domestic support), ability (technical capacity) or external pressure, and augments these statistical findings with a comparative country-level narrative of WTO (non-)accession decision-making in two small island countries.     

Environmental effects of GATT/WTO membership: an empirical evaluation

ABSTRACT

One of the great questions for scholars of international relations and economics concerns the relationship between the World Trade Organization (WTO) and the natural environment. Does membership in the multilateral trade regime constrain environmental regulation and increase the environmental burden of national economies? Do countries pay a heavy environmental price for trade liberalization? Although this question has been debated extensively, there is little statistical evidence to contribute the debate. We provide a comprehensive statistical analysis of the environmental effects of joining the multilateral trade regime. We collected data on a variety of environmental policies, institutions, and outcomes that should be influenced by the General Agreementon Tariffs and Trade (GATT)/WTO membership if the predictions of environmental pessimists or optimists are valid. A wide range of statistical models designed to identify the causal effect of the GATT/WTO on the environmental indicators shows that joining the GATT/WTO does not have negative effects on environmental quality.     

Multilateral determinants of regionalism revisited

The idea that some features of the multilateral trading system create incentives for countries to join preferential trade agreements (PTAs) is among the first and most influential explanations for the wave of regionalism in the last decades. Until recently, only a few empirical studies have explored this hypothesis and their results have been accepted by many researchers and policy-makers to be a fact. In this study we revisit the question of whether multilateral events are important determinants of regionalism. We use an extended dataset and implement several empirical specifications in the analysis. Unlike previous work, our results provide little support for the relevance of variables such as the number of GATT/WTO members, ongoing trade negotiation rounds, and trade disputes as predictors of PTA formation.     

建立中日韩自由贸易区的现实基础与模式选择

中日韩三边经贸关系的迅速发展,为建立中日韩自由贸易区提供了重要的现实基础。建立中日韩自由贸易区不仅有利于促进3国经贸关系的健康发展,而且也是推动东北亚乃至整个东亚地区一体化进程的重要步骤。按照WTO的有关规定和中、日、韩3国经济发展的具体情况,可行的中日韩自由贸易区方案,应该是一个包含中、日、韩3国绝大部分产业领域的自由贸易安排,而不可能仅仅在部分产业和行业领域率先进行试验和探索;应该是一个包括中、日、韩3国全部领土的大自由贸易区,而不能是仅由3国各自部分地域组成的自由贸易区;合作领域应该包括多方面的经济技术合作,而不能仅仅停留于自由贸易。     

From the Outside Looking In: The Effect of Trading Blocs on Trade Disputes in the GATT/WTO

The increasing number and expansion of trading blocs is an important dimension of the contemporary international economy. This study examines the effects of such trading blocs on third parties and on the multilateral trading system. It is argued that trading blocs have negative economic effects on economic sectors in non-members' states. These sectors urge their governments to take political action vis-à-vis the trading bloc. Governments have several policy choices on their menu, and the attractiveness of these policies is determined by domestic and international incentives and constraints. I argue that filing a complaint in the GATT/WTO is an attractive and effective policy tool in the hands of third parties' governments. Thus, I hypothesize that the existence, deepening, and widening of trading blocs result in an increase in the number of complaints filed against their members in the multilateral trading system. I examine these propositions in the context of three important trading blocs—namely, the EU, NAFTA, and Mercosur—in the period 1948–2000. To test these hypotheses a time-series cross-section count model is performed. Controlling for conventional alternative explanations, the empirical analysis supports the theoretical framework.     

Challenges to multilaterism free trade agreements

The establishment of free trade took place in the late 18^th and 19^th centuries and, after the Second World War, international trade through trade liberalisation gained increased importance. International organisations such as the General Agreement in Tariffs and Trade (GATT) and the present World Trade Organisation (WTO) were then established to provide the institutional framework for a system of rights and obligations for trade in goods and services between countries. Nations worldwide are currently promoting trade liberalisation using various ways, multilaterally, regionally or bilaterally.     

The most-favored nation rule in principle and practice: Discrimination in the GATT

The conflicts of interest that prevailed between the great powers in the wake of the First World War eviscerated their ability to respond collectively to the advent of the Great Depression. Instead, each turned to discriminatory trade barriers and trade blocs to try to revive domestic output. Persuaded that trade discrimination exacerbated the political tensions that erupted in World War II, policy makers constructed a postwar economic order that institutionalized nondiscrimination. Thus, Article 1 of the charter of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) mandates most-favored nation (MFN) treatment. We argue here that the MFN clause itself encouraged the adoption of practices and policies that actually recreated discrimination. In particular, we argue, developing countries, long regarded as victims of discrimination, institutionalized it in their negotiations with each other. We examine two developing country PTAs that included about 80 percent of all developing-country GATT members by output (the Global System of Trade Preferences and the Protocol Relating to Trade Negotiations). We show that as in the GATT writ large, their patterns of tariff cuts and trade expansion were highly skewed toward a small number of their largest members. In trying to avoid discrimination, policy makers actually encouraged its de facto adoption.     

拉美国家的贸易开放度研究

贸易开放是经济现代化的基本特征之一,GATT以及WTO等一些国际经济秩序的基本构成机制进一步推动了全球的贸易自由化,背离这一秩序或者趋势的结果是无法从他国的市场开放中获得益处。在出口导向战略实施了多年之后,目前拉美主要国家的贸易开放到底达到了一个什么样的程度正是我们所困惑的问题。本文以亚洲7个国家作为参照组,研究了1995年至2009年拉美7个国家(阿根廷、巴西、哥伦比亚、智利、墨西哥、秘鲁和委内瑞拉)的贸易开放程度。主要结论是,最近10多年,7个拉美国家的贸易开放度有了显著而稳步的上升,但与亚洲国家相比,拉美国家的贸易开放程度普遍略低。本文对于研究拉美国家经济开放程度与经济增长、国际贸易体制以及国内产业发展之间的关系,特别是中拉经贸关系发展前景等问题都具有基础性和阶段性的意义。     

International Integration and Democratization: An Event History Analysis

This article examines the relationships between transitions to and from democracy and membership in major intergovernmental organizations (IGOs), ratification of key human-rights treaties, and integration into the global economy while controlling for a variety of domestic factors. The findings show that for the most part, participation in the major IGOs and the United Nations' human-rights regime has made little difference to the chances that countries would attempt or sustain democracy. Participation in regional human-rights treaties in Africa and the Americas is linked to better prospects for democracy, but this association appears to stem from regional trends of which those pacts are emblematic, rather than mechanisms specific to the pacts themselves. Finally, entanglement in the global economy – as indicated by thicker trade flows and membership in the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) and then World Trade Organization (WTO) – seems to have had a stronger effect on the prospects for democracy than these other forms of international integration, but not always in the beneficent direction posited by liberal theorists. While participation in the GATT/WTO is associated with better prospects for the establishment and persistence of democracy, foreign trade itself is linked to the persistence of domestic political regimes of either stripe, democratic and non-democratic.     

The Doha Round impasse: A graphical account

Several factors potentially responsible for the failure to conclude the Doha Round of multilateral trade negotiations are analyzed. A two-stage negotiation and ratification game between the “North” (industrialized countries) and the “South” (developing countries) is employed and collapses into a single diagram. The choice of negotiating agenda, principles, and currency of the Doha Round interact with domestic political factors in leading WTO members, the fast growth of exports prior to 2007, and pervasive unilateral trade reform to eliminate the “landing zone” for this particular multilateral negotiation. Recent emphasis on differences between developing countries and on Chinese WTO accession as independent causes of the impasse seems misplaced.     

Leadership in the WTO: Brazil,India and the Doha development agenda

The Doha round of multilateral negotiations has witnessed the relocation of Southern powers towards the core of the World Trade Organization (WTO) decision-making structure. Brazil and India are the only developing countries that have participated consistently in all major ministerial phases of the Doha round between 2001 and 2008. Their consolidation as trading powers cannot be attributed solely to their status as emerging economies. Their projected legitimacy as representatives of the global South has operated as a catalyst in facilitating their relocation. In various phases of negotiations, however, Brazil and India have refrained from playing a proactive role in driving negotiations forward. Their defensive stance has raised questions about the two countries' prospects for systemic leadership in world trade. In explaining this condition, this article will argue that Brazilian and Indian trade diplomacy is consistently directed towards maintaining broad bases of followership. Brazil and India are disposed to exercise assertive leadership only when that accommodates the expectations and preferences of their followership in the global South. Their preoccupation with constantly reasserting their Third World image often renders blocking agreement the preferable strategy to avoid paying a high price in terms of legitimacy.     

Environmental aspects in free trade agreements in the Asia-Pacific region

The trade and environment interface has become a topic of growing importance. Until the early 1990s, the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) and its successor, the World Trade Organisation (WTO), were the major forums to address the relationship between trade and the environment. Significant progress in this area has not yet been made. Since the 1990s, environmental issues have been addressed by the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and in recent times by trans-regional and bilateral free trade agreements (FTAs) such as the Trans-Pacific Strategic Economic Partnership Agreement (SEP), the U.S.–Singapore FTA (USSFTA), the Canada–Chile FTA or the New Zealand–Thailand Closer Economic Partnership Agreement (CEP). Not only questions on the effectiveness of FTAs in global and regional environmental governance arise but also on the various actors involved in these negotiations. The question here is whether the integration of environmental issues in FTAs is a top-down approach, leaving the negotiations and implementation of environment cooperation frameworks in the hands of governments, or whether environmental arrangements are the result of a multi-stakeholder dialogue, consequently committing governments, the private sector and civil society to the objective of making trade and environmental policies mutually supportive. This article seeks to address these questions by analysing environmental issues and stakeholder participation in the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC), the Trans-Pacific SEP and the New Zealand–Thailand CEP.

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俄加入世贸组织过渡期黑龙江省对俄经贸合作对策

俄罗斯于2012年8月正式成为世贸组织成员国。加入WTO后,俄必须遵守WTO规则要求,投资环境进一步趋好,市场准入扩大,将为黑龙江省推进对俄经贸合作提供难得发展机遇。但这并不意味着对俄合作风险已完全消除,黑龙江省对俄合作仍将面临诸多挑战,在俄加入WTO过渡期,应主动适应新形势,推动对俄经贸合作实现又好又快发展。     

Trade relations between Europe and East Asia

The Asia-Europe Meeting (ASEM) framework was created in 1996, with the primary purpose of strengthening economic, political and cultural relations among the 15 countries of the European Union and ten East Asian states. This paper examines the origins of these recent economic linkages, in a global and inter-regional context.¶The paper charts the principal elements of ASEMs economic pillar to date, assesses the influence of multilateral trading environments (notably the WTO) on the region-to-region dialogue and examines ASEMs impact on intra-regional economic developments, especially in the case of East Asia.¶The paper will focus in particular on the flagship projects of trade and investment facilitation, to discuss whether and to what extent ASEM itself can be seen to further cooperation and coordination in specific fields of activity.¶The final part of the paper aims to analyse the prospects for future economic relations between East Asia and Europe, in the wake of a devastating financial crisis in Asia, in the context of a continued war on terror which, since the Bali bombing has had an even more immediate impact on Asia, and in the changing global economic environment as regulated by the tenets of the WTO.     

Domestic Institutions,Trade Disputes,and the Monitoring and Enforcement of International Law

Why do some governments participate more actively in the enforcement of international law than others? In the context of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT)/World Trade Organization (WTO), I argue that domestic institutions – and, specifically, the electoral rule – can account for these differences. Interest groups are frequently harmed when foreign governments violate international law and have compliance information, but they lack access to formal enforcement mechanisms, such as dispute settlement bodies. I identify two complementary effects of domestic institutions. Where domestic institutions increase the government’s responsiveness to interest groups, the government is more likely to enforce international law on their behalf. In turn, because they expect that rule violations are more likely to be enforced, interest groups are more willing to contribute to the monitoring of international law. Hence, interest groups are more likely to provide the information necessary for enforcement, and governments are more likely to be aware of rule violations and to provide enforcement. Empirical evidence from the GATT/WTO is consistent with these propositions.     

Rethinking sensitivity interdependence: Assessing the trade,financial, and monetary links between states

International relations scholars do not adequately conceptualize or measure economic interdependence, a crucial variable in studies of trade and conflict, economic sanctions, and globalization. Most studies conflate vulnerability with sensitivity and confuse interconnectedness with genuine interdependence by relying on inadequate indices of interdependence such as unadjusted trade as a percentage of GDP. Such measures fail to capture the true cost to states of a termination of normal trading relations and ignore completely interstate financial and monetary ties. In this article, we offer a new method, the Contextual Sensitivity Estimator (CSE), for gauging sensitivity interdependence. The CSE addresses existing shortcomings in several noteworthy ways. First, it takes into account the strategic and domestic economic context of external economic linkages. Second, it assesses the composition of trade and the uses of trade proceeds. Third, it provides a detailed conceptualization of critical channels of sensitivity like foreign investment and exchange rate ties. Using Arab‐Canadian economic relations in 1979, after a threatened boycott of Canada, as a case study, we show that our CSE yields a more accurate assessment of sensitivity interdependence than traditional measures.     

Can trade make a sovereign? Taiwan–China–EU relations in the WTO

In 2002 Taiwan became a member of the World Trade Organization. Although its accession process was guided by pragmatism, once it had entered the trade body sovereignty concerns came to the fore. This article analyses the relationship in the Taiwan–China–EU triangle during Taiwan’s accession to and membership of the WTO. While Taiwan is now more ready to use the WTO as a platform in its quest for international status, the behaviour patterns of the EU and China have largely remained static. The EU is interested in the economic benefits of improved relations with Taiwan, but avoids getting involved in the sovereignty conflict. China, meanwhile, tries to prevent a status gain by Taiwan in the international community.     

越南加入世界贸易组织后贸易制度的变迁

一、加入世界贸易组织后越南对外贸易的表现 加入世界贸易组织(以下简称WTO)后,越南对外贸易发展迅速,2007年和2008年出口都大幅增长,但由于全球金融危机的影响,从2008年8月开始,出口逐月下降,同时贸易逆差仍然巨大.     

Conditionality,compliance, and domestic interests: State capture and EU accession policy

States and international organizations often attempt to influence the behavior of a target government by employing conditionality—i.e., they condition the provision of some set of benefits on changes in the target’s policies. Conditionality may give rise to a commitment problem: once the proffered benefits are granted, the target’s incentive for continued compliance declines. In this paper, I document a mechanism by which conditionality may induce compliance even after these benefits are distributed. If conditionality alters the composition of domestic interest groups in the target state, it may induce permanent changes in the target government’s behavior. I construct a dynamic model of lobbying that demonstrates that conditionality can reduce long-term levels of state capture. And I test the model’s predictions using data from the accession of Eastern European countries to the EU.     

中国-东盟自由贸易区的进程与前景

中国—东盟自由贸易区得以产生决非偶然,它是以全球贸易自由化的迅速兴起和中国加入世贸组织的区域影响为背景。中国与东盟正式签署了《中国与东盟全面经济合作框架协议》,确定了中国-东盟自由贸易区的目标、范围、措施、时间表,它为建立中国-东盟自由贸易区设计了基本架构,诚然,中国-东盟自由贸易区进程中,将面临来自区域内外的一系列挑战。不过,在中国与东盟之间,共同利益远大于分歧,合作机遇远大于挑战。