Trade, institutions, and the timing of GATT/WTO accession in post-colonial states

Prior to 1995, when the World Trade Organization (WTO) superseded the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT), a number of states took advantage of GATT Article XXVI:5(c), which allowed them—as former colonies or component territories of existing GATT members—to quickly and simply join the multilateral trade regime. The speed with which these post-colonial accessions took place, however, varied widely: some states joined immediately upon independence, while others joined much later. Still other post-colonial states passed on this opportunity, only to subsequently begin the longer, more onerous accession process required of other GATT/WTO applicants. Our paper seeks to explain this variation in the timing of post-colonial states’ accession to the GATT/WTO. We argue that three key variables explain the timing of accession decisions: 1) a country’s trade ties with existing member-states; 2) its existing preferential trade agreement (PTA) commitments; and 3) its domestic political institutions—specifically, the country’s level of democracy. Furthermore, we argue that the effects of these variables are conditional upon each other: post-colonial countries with more extensive trade ties to existing member-states were more likely to accede rapidly under Article XXVI:5(c), but only under specific conditions—namely, when they had not already locked in ties with key trading partners through bilateral or regional PTAs, and when they were governed by a more democratic regime. We test this argument empirically using an original dataset of 61 post-colonial states from 1951 to 2004. Our results strongly support this explanation of GATT/WTO accession and help to clarify the pattern of participation in the multilateral trading system that we have observed over the last half-century.     

Environmental effects of GATT/WTO membership: an empirical evaluation

ABSTRACT

One of the great questions for scholars of international relations and economics concerns the relationship between the World Trade Organization (WTO) and the natural environment. Does membership in the multilateral trade regime constrain environmental regulation and increase the environmental burden of national economies? Do countries pay a heavy environmental price for trade liberalization? Although this question has been debated extensively, there is little statistical evidence to contribute the debate. We provide a comprehensive statistical analysis of the environmental effects of joining the multilateral trade regime. We collected data on a variety of environmental policies, institutions, and outcomes that should be influenced by the General Agreementon Tariffs and Trade (GATT)/WTO membership if the predictions of environmental pessimists or optimists are valid. A wide range of statistical models designed to identify the causal effect of the GATT/WTO on the environmental indicators shows that joining the GATT/WTO does not have negative effects on environmental quality.     

Outside looking in: non-accession to the WTO

Since its institutional birth in 1947, the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) / World Trade Organization (WTO) has mushroomed from 23 original contracting parties to 157 members as of September 2012. Another 28 countries are currently observers, each at varying stages of the accession process. WTO members and observers cover some 99 per cent of the world's population and over 99 per cent of global trade. However, there are still 13 states outside the multilateral rules-based trading system. This paper argues that existing explanations of membership and accession do not fully explain why these states remain outside the WTO, with implications for membership in international institutions generally. The paper tests hypotheses of non-membership based on a lack of willingness (domestic support), ability (technical capacity) or external pressure, and augments these statistical findings with a comparative country-level narrative of WTO (non-)accession decision-making in two small island countries.     

Domestic Institutions,Trade Disputes,and the Monitoring and Enforcement of International Law

Why do some governments participate more actively in the enforcement of international law than others? In the context of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT)/World Trade Organization (WTO), I argue that domestic institutions – and, specifically, the electoral rule – can account for these differences. Interest groups are frequently harmed when foreign governments violate international law and have compliance information, but they lack access to formal enforcement mechanisms, such as dispute settlement bodies. I identify two complementary effects of domestic institutions. Where domestic institutions increase the government’s responsiveness to interest groups, the government is more likely to enforce international law on their behalf. In turn, because they expect that rule violations are more likely to be enforced, interest groups are more willing to contribute to the monitoring of international law. Hence, interest groups are more likely to provide the information necessary for enforcement, and governments are more likely to be aware of rule violations and to provide enforcement. Empirical evidence from the GATT/WTO is consistent with these propositions.     

拉美国家的贸易开放度研究

贸易开放是经济现代化的基本特征之一,GATT以及WTO等一些国际经济秩序的基本构成机制进一步推动了全球的贸易自由化,背离这一秩序或者趋势的结果是无法从他国的市场开放中获得益处。在出口导向战略实施了多年之后,目前拉美主要国家的贸易开放到底达到了一个什么样的程度正是我们所困惑的问题。本文以亚洲7个国家作为参照组,研究了1995年至2009年拉美7个国家(阿根廷、巴西、哥伦比亚、智利、墨西哥、秘鲁和委内瑞拉)的贸易开放程度。主要结论是,最近10多年,7个拉美国家的贸易开放度有了显著而稳步的上升,但与亚洲国家相比,拉美国家的贸易开放程度普遍略低。本文对于研究拉美国家经济开放程度与经济增长、国际贸易体制以及国内产业发展之间的关系,特别是中拉经贸关系发展前景等问题都具有基础性和阶段性的意义。     

Challenges to multilaterism free trade agreements

The establishment of free trade took place in the late 18^th and 19^th centuries and, after the Second World War, international trade through trade liberalisation gained increased importance. International organisations such as the General Agreement in Tariffs and Trade (GATT) and the present World Trade Organisation (WTO) were then established to provide the institutional framework for a system of rights and obligations for trade in goods and services between countries. Nations worldwide are currently promoting trade liberalisation using various ways, multilaterally, regionally or bilaterally.     

BRICSAM and the non–WTO

We highlight the seeming emergence globally of a non–WTO; a patchwork quilt of regional and bilateral trade management arrangements dealing with issues well beyond what the WTO covers and reflecting a wider and different set of concerns. In particular, we discuss recent regional trade and economic partnership agreements of a group of large population, developing economies (BRICSAM: Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, ASEAN, and Mexico). Perhaps 50 out of 300 agreements that exist worldwide involve BRICSAM countries; most are recently concluded and will be implemented over the next few years. They exist along with extensive bilateral investment treaties, mutual recognition agreements, and other country to country (or region) arrangements. This paper aims to document and characterize the agreements and analyze their possible impacts. Agreements differ in specificity, coverage and content. In some treaties there are detailed and specific commitments, but these also co–exist with seemingly vague commitments and (at times) opaque dispute settlement and enforcement mechanisms. No overarching bloc–wide strategies seem to exist but whether these represent an emerging structure for newly negotiated reciprocity and trade management or instead largely limited content diplomatic initiatives which co–exist alongside significant WTO (World Trade Organisation) disciplines is the issue. This paper has been written as part of the BRICSAM project underway at The Centre for International Governance Innovation, Waterloo, Ontario, Canada. We are grateful to Andrew Cooper, Sylvia Ostry, Daniel Schwanen, Terry Sicular, Gilbert Winham, Ron Wonnacott, and three anonymous reviewers for discussions and suggestions.     

The most-favored nation rule in principle and practice: Discrimination in the GATT

The conflicts of interest that prevailed between the great powers in the wake of the First World War eviscerated their ability to respond collectively to the advent of the Great Depression. Instead, each turned to discriminatory trade barriers and trade blocs to try to revive domestic output. Persuaded that trade discrimination exacerbated the political tensions that erupted in World War II, policy makers constructed a postwar economic order that institutionalized nondiscrimination. Thus, Article 1 of the charter of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) mandates most-favored nation (MFN) treatment. We argue here that the MFN clause itself encouraged the adoption of practices and policies that actually recreated discrimination. In particular, we argue, developing countries, long regarded as victims of discrimination, institutionalized it in their negotiations with each other. We examine two developing country PTAs that included about 80 percent of all developing-country GATT members by output (the Global System of Trade Preferences and the Protocol Relating to Trade Negotiations). We show that as in the GATT writ large, their patterns of tariff cuts and trade expansion were highly skewed toward a small number of their largest members. In trying to avoid discrimination, policy makers actually encouraged its de facto adoption.     

Intergovernmental Organization Memberships: Examining Political Community and the Attributes of International Organizations

Why are states jointly members in certain intergovernmental organizations (IGOs) but not others? Despite the proliferation of IGOs and renewed interest in this topic, we lack systematic research to answer this question. Our theory of political community explains why dyads of states are likely to be common members in particular types of IGOs. We analyze and compare functionalist and Deutschian communitarian perspectives about IGO memberships. We test our theory using newly available data on IGO mandates and institutional structure, which allows us to make specific predictions about the types of IGO to which dyads become members. We show that dyads that are economically dependent, and/or democratic and enjoying enduring peace, are more likely to join those IGOs that possess high levels of institutional structure. Militarized interstate conflicts reduce the likelihood of states sharing membership in common IGO, but not substantially, whereas development and alliances also increase IGO memberships between states. Trade ties, however, are the most important determinant of joint membership between states in the most institutionalized IGOs, which is congruent with security communities.     

Environmental aspects in free trade agreements in the Asia-Pacific region

The trade and environment interface has become a topic of growing importance. Until the early 1990s, the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) and its successor, the World Trade Organisation (WTO), were the major forums to address the relationship between trade and the environment. Significant progress in this area has not yet been made. Since the 1990s, environmental issues have been addressed by the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and in recent times by trans-regional and bilateral free trade agreements (FTAs) such as the Trans-Pacific Strategic Economic Partnership Agreement (SEP), the U.S.–Singapore FTA (USSFTA), the Canada–Chile FTA or the New Zealand–Thailand Closer Economic Partnership Agreement (CEP). Not only questions on the effectiveness of FTAs in global and regional environmental governance arise but also on the various actors involved in these negotiations. The question here is whether the integration of environmental issues in FTAs is a top-down approach, leaving the negotiations and implementation of environment cooperation frameworks in the hands of governments, or whether environmental arrangements are the result of a multi-stakeholder dialogue, consequently committing governments, the private sector and civil society to the objective of making trade and environmental policies mutually supportive. This article seeks to address these questions by analysing environmental issues and stakeholder participation in the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC), the Trans-Pacific SEP and the New Zealand–Thailand CEP.

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Regional Integration and Democratic Consolidation in the Southern Cone of Latin America

Regional integration has been a significant factor shaping the consolidation processes of southern cone democratizing states. Regional integration strategies have allowed transitional regimes across the southern cone to neutralize threats of democratic reversals by military leaders, effectively undermining the long-standing geostrategic rationales used by foreign policy and military elites to justify military intervention in domestic politics. The dramatic rise of interstate co-operation has accelerated and ensured the consolidation of democracy across the region through regional trade blocs, the development of an embedded regional commitment to democracy, and a 'defence of democracy' regime. At the same time, democratization has enhanced regional economic and security integration strategies, through increased domestic transparency, the impact of pro-democratic ideational forces and the externalization of democratic principles. 'Structurational' analysis of the processes of democratic consolidation in Brazil and Argentina is used to demonstrate the influence of economic integration and the emergent regional security regime on democratic consolidation, as well as the role democratization played in facilitating these developments in regional integration.     

The Company You Keep: International Socialization and the Diffusion of Human Rights Norms

Does membership in Intergovernmental Organizations (IGOs) affect states' human rights behavior? One might expect IGOs with a specific human rights mandate, like the International Labour Organization or the Council of Europe, to have a positive effect on the human rights practices of their member states. But what about other sorts of IGOs, particularly those with no direct connection to human rights issues? This study employs cross-national data on abuses of "physical integrity rights" for 137 countries over the period 1982–2000 to test the hypothesis that IGOs can promote the diffusion of human rights norms by providing venues for interstate socialization. Recent empirical work on IGOs has suggested that this sort of socialization effect can play an important role in promoting democracy and can also lead to a more general convergence among states' interests. The results presented here suggest that IGOs can have a surprisingly powerful influence on states' human rights practices as a result of this process.     

Schools of democracy: how trade union membership impacts political participation in Africa’s emerging democracies

Trade unions in Africa have become increasingly vocal in calling attention to the widening socio-economic inequalities that have accompanied global market integration across the continent. This article argues that, in their quest to challenge neoliberal policies, labour movements have contributed to processes of democratization in Africa by acting as instruments of political socialization for their members. Using survey data from respondents in 18 African countries, this article demonstrates an empirical relationship between trade union membership and political participation. The article finds that membership in a labour organization increases one’s propensity to participate in a range of political activities. Specifically, labour movements encourage participation by forging “participatory spillover effects”, which mobilize unionists across different arenas of the political landscape. Finally, the article finds that the effect of union membership on political participation is stronger in countries where unions maintain independence from ruling parties. This research contributes to literature on political participation across Africa and furthers our understanding of the role of labour movements in bottom-up processes of democratization on the continent.     

日本自由贸易战略的新动向及其影响（英文）

Japan's active promotion of mega-FTAs is epitome of new developments in its FTA strategy, which is driven not only by concrete economic benefits, but also by promoting domestic transformation and demonstrating proactive diplomacy of a major power. With WTO negotiations and regional trade integration both encountering bottlenecks, Japan's strategic adjustment will have bring complicated impacts.     

The Political Economy of Developing Country Antidumping Investigations against China

This article draws on industry-level data to analyze the political economy of the use of the antidumping statute by 10 less developed countries (LDCs) against China. Test results suggest that Chinese import competition is an important factor explaining the pattern of LDC antidumping initiation against China. Macroeconomic factors such as gross domestic product growth rate also play some role in influencing the pattern of LDC antidumping determination against China. Importantly, statistical analyses did not yield any evidence suggesting that China's membership in the World Trade Organization has disciplined developing countries' use of the antidumping policy. The paper conjectures that China's Most-Favored-Nation status under the World Trade Organization, the designation of China as a nonmarket economy in antidumping investigations until 2016, and the retaliatory incentives generated by the growing deflection of Chinese exports to developing country markets may have overwhelmed the institutional effect of the trade organization in shaping the pattern of LDC antidumping decision making toward China.     

Seeking Escape: The Use of Escape Clauses in International Trade Agreements

In agreements that include flexibility enhancing mechanisms such as escape clauses, how do institutions realize the benefits of flexibility while preventing its abuse? The conventional wisdom is that escape clauses must be made costly, but I show this claim to be at odds with empirical observation. In the GATT/WTO, the institution where escape clauses are most prevalent, compensation following escape was only widespread in the 1950s. Since then, it has been progressively abandoned, in favor of appeals to exception. This alternative mechanism relies on an institution's ability to verify the severity and exogeneity of the domestic circumstances of states seeking temporary escape. Relying heavily on GATT archives, I show how early on in the institution, members had made the link between costless escape and increased monitoring, and pursued reforms to achieve both objectives. The success of members' ability to verify escapees' domestic circumstances is observed in the record of safeguard disputes throughout the GATT/WTO's history. Finally, I use the hypothesized link between verifiable information and the chosen escape mechanism to explain an otherwise puzzling GATT incident, that of French emergency trade measures in 1968.     

论东盟的国际竞争力

世界各国经济国际竞争力的研究与评价,已经受到国际机构、政府部门和企业的普遍关注,成为世界经济研究的热点问题之一。东盟是中国最主要的周边地区之一,也是我国在发展中国家中最重要的经贸伙伴。随着中国-东盟自由贸易区的建成,中国与东盟区域经济一体化进程进一步加快,双边经济的互补和竞争关系日显突出。因此,对东盟经济国际竞争力的研究具有重要的现实意义。     

Trade Liberalization and Environmental Protection

Since the 1970s, environmental issues have gradually assumed importance in trade discussions. Trade liberalization and environmental protection have become increasingly interlinked because of the marked development of international trade and its seriously degrading effect on the environment. The WTO, as the sole international organization regulating trade, has inevitably come into the spot light. A clear reference to the importance of sustainable development lies in the preamble of the WTO and in the establishment of a new Committee on Trade and Environment （CTE）. However, the role of the WTO in this issue is still hotly debated. Liberalists maintain that the WTO, as a trade-regulating body, has gone too far in environmental protection whilst environmentalists claim that the WTO has not gone far enough. This paper attempts to analyze the role of the w-ro in the complicated linkage between trade liberalization and environmental protection, concluding that only under certain circumstances can the WTO play an active role in making trade liberalization and environmental protection mutually supportive.     

新形势下开拓俄罗斯市场的思考

中国入世和俄罗斯加快入世步伐对中国企业发展与俄罗斯经贸合作提供了新的机遇。如果说拥有世界人口1/5的中国的加盟使WTO更具世界性的话，那么，占地球陆地面积1/9的俄罗斯的入世将会使WTO的版图大大扩张，更具全球性。近两年来，中俄经贸合作已经渡过了磨合期，进入了快车道。不久前，国家召开了对俄经贸工作会议，会后即将出台《进一步发展对俄经贸合作的意见》，制定一系列鼓励中俄经贸合作的政策措施，为中俄经贸合作创造有利条件，也为我省进一步开拓俄罗斯市场提供了新的机遇。我们要发挥优势，充满信心，积极开拓进取，大手笔做出大文章，为加快我省经济发展和搞好全国对俄合作做出更大的贡献。     

中国-东盟自由贸易区：基于东盟经济共同体蓝图的战略构想

随着东盟宪章及经济共同体蓝图的实施以及中国-东盟自由贸易区建成和运行,中国-东盟经贸合作关系踏上新台阶。其进一步发展有赖于中国-东盟经济一体化进程的战略引导。基于区域经济一体化演进趋势,提出了中国一东盟经济一体化战略框架。其基本思路是在合作方向与发展目标指引下,采取多样化的合作方式,多路径展开全面合作,构建一系列战略支撑,最终推动中国与东盟建成关税同盟乃至共同市场。