Trade Interdependence and the Use of Force: Do Issues Matter?

In this project, we investigate the relationship between the use of military force and trade interdependence, suggesting that the influence of trade on militarized conflict varies based on the issue under dispute. For some issues, trade is likely to attenuate the chances that states escalate a dispute to the use of military force, while for others trade can intensify disputes so that military conflict is more likely. Specifically, we hypothesize that greater trade interdependence decreases the probability of military conflict over realpolitik issues like territory. On the other hand, greater trade interdependence increases the probability that states use military force when the issue under dispute concerns the regime, policies, and conditions in the target. To test our hypotheses, we employ new data on dyadic uses of force from the International Military Intervention data set that records the initiator’s reason(s) for using force against the target. The statistical tests support our hypotheses; trade decreases the use of force against a target for territorial and military/diplomatic reasons, which is consistent with arguments from the liberal paradigm. However, trade interdependence increases the use of force for humanitarian and economic reasons as well as to affect the regime or policy of the target. Thus, our study improves upon current research about the relationship between economic interdependence and foreign policy by specifying a conditional relationship based on the issues under contention.     

Institutional Reforms and the Politics of Inequality Reproduction: The Case of the League of Nations’ Council Crisis in 1926

ABSTRACT

This contribution to the special issue explores how institutional reforms are shaped by and feed back into the politics of inequality reproduction. IR has recently begun to more closely study how hierarchies intersect. This article uses the analytical concept of “interlinkages” to grasp how international organisations couple intra-organisational patterns of unequal representation to extra-organisational social hierarchies. It empirically investigates the forms and effects of such interlinkages through a case study of the League of Nations’ Council crisis and reform in 1926. The reform reaffirmed the most prominent interlinkage: the restriction of permanent membership to states recognised as “great powers”. In addition, the reform created two new types of non-permanent seats which changed the pattern of representation of small states. Overall, the case study shows that the interlinkages and their effects were generated by an interplay of formal design and informal understandings both at the level of permanent and non-permanent seats.     

The politics of deep integration*

Abstract

Efforts to pursue ‘deep integration’—agreeing to international rules governing domestic policies to mitigate their adverse trade effects—have been pivotal to the politicization of trade policy. The contributions to this special issue focus on different political dynamics associated with recent high-profile efforts at deep integration. Collectively, they analyse the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP), the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA), the Transpacific Partnership (TPP) and the Japan–European Union Economic Partnership Agreement (JEEPA) negotiations. The special issue, therefore, focuses on extreme examples of deep integration in order to illuminate new political dynamics. This introductory article introduces the concept of ‘deep integration’ and explores how it has been pursued in historical and contemporary trade negotiations. It also relates recent attempts at deep integration to the rise of populist anti-globalization movements. In light of these discussions, this article introduces the contributions to the issue. It concludes by considering whether the politics associated with TTIP and CETA in Europe represent the future of trade policy.     

How effective are preferential trade agreements? Ask the experts

Limited data on regional and preferential trade agreements prevent social scientists from testing some of the international cooperation literature??s most important claims. Expert surveys??a technique that is widely used in the field of comparative politics but thus far underutilized in international relations??allow us to capture many aspects of trade agreements for which data would otherwise be unavailable. They also provide us with a means of comparing agreements across regions and issue areas. We present a new dataset of expert opinion on the world??s regional trade organizations. Our survey covers 24 dimensions of 40 different regional agreements??including the perceived effectiveness of trade liberalization, the degree to which dispute settlement mechanisms are easy to use, and the political and international influence of the agreement. Bayesian factor analysis allows us to extract a principal dimension of effectiveness.     

中国-东盟贸易、投资与环境协同发展争端解决机制研究

当前国际组织在处理贸易、投资与环境问题的方法上各有利弊,为了解决中国-东盟贸易、投资与环境的冲突问题,实现中国-东盟贸易、投资与环境的协同发展,基于设计的中国-东盟争端解决机制构建的思路和框架体系,并进一步探讨了确保争端解决机制正常运作的保障机制,即建立中国-东盟环境协调发展总局、中国-东盟环境协调发展基金会以及中国-东盟争端解决机制的诉讼体制。     

China's Overseas Energy Investment: Myth and Reality

China's rapidly increasing demands for energy has been a subject for debate for years.To Chinese observers,the most important issue is how to safeguard energy supply and maintain economic growth.To most Western analysts,however,the more crucial issue is how Chinese energy policies and activities will affect world energy markets and world politics.One point is not in dispute: China's international energy activities,especially investment overseas,have been the main cause for international concern,causing a degree of unease outside China.     

Institutions,the Illegal Drug Trade,and Participant Strategies: What Corrupt or Pariah States Have In Common with Liberal Democracy and the Rule of Law

Institutions generate incentives that guide behavior, but many analysts and policymakers underestimate the power of institutions to affect behavior by ignoring how distinct strategies work to generate similar outcomes in different institutional contexts. This article uses the illegal trade in psychoactive substances to illustrate how outcomes (the size of the illegal drug market) across very distinct political institutions can be the same because individuals adopt different strategies in their pursuit of the same behavior: to participate in the illegal drug trade. The illegal trade in psychoactive substances represents an understudied and poorly studied issue in international relations. Arguments that focus on the deviant characteristics of governments in the developing world and organized crime to explain the trade are misleading for empirical and methodological reasons. I propose a general argument about the proliferation of the illegal drug trade that accounts for its success in countries struggling with poverty, corruption, terrorism, and pariah leaders, as well as in rich, stable democracies in which the rule of law “reigns.” The article takes factors that are often seen as distinct in explaining the drug trade (e.g., civil rights in liberal democracies and corruption in developing countries) and demonstrates that their explanatory logic represents variations on the same causal variable: the ability to conceal oneself. My insight is that the strategies used to achieve concealment vary by the institutional context in which participants find themselves.     

Editors’ introduction: critical terrorism studies: practice,limits and experience

The articles in this special issue are drawn from papers presented at a conference titled Critical Terrorism Studies: Practice, Limits and Experience. The conference was organised by the Critical Studies on Terrorism Working Group of the British International Studies Association (BISA). The event was supported by both a BISA workshop grant and by Loughborough University’s Centre for the Study of International Governance (CSIG) and was held at Loughborough University from 9–10 September 2013. The conference aimed to explore what we know about terrorism and counterterrorism and importantly to ask how we know it. Reflecting the recent “materialist”, “everyday”, “experiential” and “narrative” turns in the fields of International Relations (IR), Geography and Cultural Theory, the event brought together scholars and practitioners to reflect on practices of research and knowledge production in Critical Terrorism Studies and related fields. The articles in this special issue reflect those aims.     

Pathways into Terrorism: Understanding Entry into and Support for Terrorism in Asia

ABSTRACT

How do individuals join Islamist extremist groups? Why do individuals support such groups? What factors contribute to a decision to join? What are the pathways into Islamist extremist groups? Drawing on examples from Pakistan, Bangladesh, Indonesia and the Philippines, the articles in this special issue address these critically important questions drawing on original fieldwork, new datasets and large scale national survey research. These articles explore the experiences and perceptions of men and women, South and Southeast Asians, living in majority Muslim and non-Muslim nations. Collectively, they illustrate the importance of social bonds&kinship ties, friendship, teacher-student ties and online relationships in creating a powerful sense of community that fosters a sense of belonging and eventual commitment. The goal of this special issue is to highlight the contributions that Asian cases can make to the often Middle Eastern and European-centric discourses on radicalization, joining and support for militancy.     

Editors’ introduction: neoliberalism and/as terror

The articles in this special issue are drawn from papers presented at a conference entitled “Neoliberalism and/as Terror”, held at the Nottingham Conference Centre at Nottingham Trent University by the Critical Terrorism Studies BISA Working Group (CSTWG) on 15–16 September 2014. The conference was supported by both a BISA workshop grant and supplementary funds from Nottingham Trent University’s Politics and International Relations Department and the Critical Studies on Terrorism journal. Papers presented at the conference aimed to extend research into the diverse linkages between neoliberalism and terrorism, including but extending beyond the contextualisation of pre-emptive counterterrorism technologies and privatised securities within relevant economic and ideological contexts. Thus, the conference sought also to stimulate research into the ways that neoliberalism could itself be understood as terrorism, asking – amongst other questions – whether populations are themselves terrorised by neoliberal policy. The articles presented in this special issue reflect the conference aims in bringing together research on the neoliberalisation of counterterrorism and on the terror of neoliberalism.     

东盟安全机制的有效性与局限性

东南亚地区具有重要的地缘战略地位,向来是大国政治和军事角逐的焦点地区。东南亚国家为了保障该地区的和平与稳定,在长期的实践过程中形成了其独特的安全机制"东盟方式",这一模式在稳定地区安全事务中发挥了重要的作用。1978 年东盟在解决柬埔寨问题中作出了积极的贡献,展现出东盟安全机制的有效性;但在 2008 年 7 月以来柬埔寨和泰国发生的边境争端中作为不大,则反映出东盟安全机制的局限性。"东盟方式"在这两次重大事件中发挥的作用截然不同,正反映出东盟安全机制的有效性与局限性。     

关于加快黑龙江省对俄合作战略升级的思考

近年来,黑龙江省对俄贸易在全国对俄贸易中的比重不断下滑,地缘优势逐渐丧失。进入2011年,虽然从贸易数量上看,对俄贸易大幅增长,但从贸易内容、贸易形式上来看,还存在着很多问题和不足。俄远东地区是黑龙江省传统的经贸伙伴,黑龙江省正面临着来自日韩和国内其他省市的挑战,形势日趋严峻。如何进一步挖掘潜能,发挥优势已成为黑龙江省开展对俄合作的重要课题。     

对中俄贸易中“灰色清关”问题的思考

"灰色清关"是俄罗斯的一种特殊清关方式,但是通过这种途径进入俄罗斯的中国商品近年来却屡被俄官方查扣."灰色清关"的存在有其主、客观的原因.虽然它对中俄贸易有过积极影响,但是它也折射了中俄贸易中的一些问题.在自由贸易普遍发展的今天,它已经越来越成为中俄贸易的阻碍因素.因此,我们应该采取相应措施防范其对双边贸易的消极影响,使中俄贸易在新时期里迈上一个新台阶.     

The Chicken or the Egg?: A Coevolutionary Approach to Disputed Issues and Militarized Conflict

Is state behavior influenced by the context in which it occurs, or does context arise because of the way in which states behave? I investigate these questions in the context of international disputes over issues and states’ militarized behavior. The prevalent assumption in interstate conflict research is that disputed issues are exogenous to militarization patterns. I question the validity of this assumption, arguing there are reasons to suspect certain states self-select into disputes. I use a coevolution modeling strategy to allow the existence of disputes and states’ behavior to mutually affect one another. I find disputes are not exogenous to states’ militarized behavior. States that resort to militarized behavior are more likely to dispute an issue than peaceful states. I also find evidence of behavioral contagion among states engaged in disputes: Militarized behavior begets militarized behavior.     

标志性事件对中国与东盟国家进出口影响实证分析

该文基于国别贸易数据,采集和整理了东盟10国以及东盟外8国的年度对中国贸易数据,利用改进的倍差法模型对以上数据进行分析,评估标志性事件对东盟与中国贸易规模影响的净效应。通过实证分析发现,中国与东盟政治与经济合作的标志性事件对于中国与东盟各国贸易有极其显著的正的影响效应,而中国与东盟个别国家领土、政治纠纷和国际灾害的影响效应不显著。国际性经济危机对东盟和中国之间的贸易总量也有着比较显著的影响。并依据以上实证结果提出有关发展中国—东盟贸易的建议。     

Lobbying as a Private Good with Intra-Industry Trade

Intra-industry trade—trade in different varieties of the same product between countries with similar factor endowments—has been an important and surprising feature of the postwar international economy. Economists have explained this trade with models of monopolistic competition, which suggest that intra-industry trade does not have the stark distributional consequences that the more traditional "endowments-based" trade does. I do not dispute that claim here, although I do dispute a political implication drawn from it—that intra-industry trade produces less political action than endowments-based trade. I argue that, because firms involved in intra-industry trade are monopolists, lobbying essentially becomes a private good . If intra-industry trade places costs on firms, they do not have less incentive to take political action to stop it, as the conventional wisdom suggests. I provide evidence for this contention from complaints lodged with the International Trade Commission. The results show that the higher the degree of intra-industry trade the more likely an industry will request protection from the ITC.     

Why do some international institutions contain strong dispute settlement provisions? New evidence from preferential trade agreements

To understand why some international institutions have stronger dispute settlement mechanisms (DSMs) than others, we investigate the dispute settlement provisions of nearly 600 preferential trade agreements (PTAs), which possess several desirable case-selection features and are evoked more than is realized. We broaden the study of dispute settlement design beyond “legalization” and instead reorient theorizing around a multi-faceted conceptualization of the strength of DSMs. We posit that strong DSMs are first and foremost a rational response to features of agreements that require stronger dispute settlement, such as depth and large memberships. Multivariate empirical tests using a new data set on PTA design confirm these expectations and reveal that depth – the amount of policy change specified in an agreement – is the most powerful and consistent predictor of DSM strength, providing empirical support to a long-posited but controversial conjecture. Yet power also plays a sizeable role, since agreements among asymmetric members are more likely to have strong DSMs due to their mutual appeal, as are those involving the United States. Important regional differences also emerge, as PTAs across the Americas are designed with strong dispute settlement, as are Asian PTAs, which contradicts the conventional wisdom about Asian values and legalization. Our findings demonstrate that rationalism explains much of international institutional design, yet it can be enhanced by also incorporating power-based and regional explanations.     

Variation in Bilateral Investment Treaty Provisions and Foreign Direct Investment Flows to China, 1997–2011

This article examines the differentisal effects of specific provisions included in China’s bilateral investment treaties (BITs) in inducing foreign direct investment (FDI). Empirical analysis yields some evidence suggesting that while the signing of a BIT does not necessarily boost FDI, the entry into force of a BIT does exert a strong effect on investment flows. More importantly, we find substantial evidence that BITs with stronger investment protection provisions such as absolute and relative standards of treatment and dispute settlement procedures are more likely to induce greater FDI flows. These results suggest that the variation in the institutional design of bilateral investment treaties strongly influences FDI flows by shaping foreign investors’ expectations of their asset security and the overall stability of the host country investment environment.     

Private-sector development in a transition economy: The case of Vietnam

Since Vietnam introduced its Doi Moi reform policy in 1986, the development of the private sector has been a main policy concern for the government and the ruling Communist Party. The main development challenge for Vietnam is how to sustain economic growth and reduce poverty as the labour force continues to expand. It is envisaged that the private sector will play a major role in that respect. This article looks into the issue of whether the private sector can live up to widespread expectations. High and stable economic growth indicates that reforms have been consistent but also that private-sector initiatives have moved ahead of formal institutional changes. Private-sector development is new in Vietnam and starts from a low level. The public and foreign investment sectors are major players compared to the domestic private sector, which comprises many small firms. Poverty reduction has been impressive but it is only now that private-sector development is becoming an important contributor. Stemming the growth in inequality remains a challenge where the private sector's contribution to increasing public revenue has yet to materialise.     

构建大湄公河次区域争端解决机制的思考——以区域贸易争端解决机制模式为鉴

大湄公河次区域经济合作（以下简称GMS）于1992年由亚洲开发银行发起，涉及流域内中国、缅甸、老挝、泰国、柬埔寨和越南等6个国家。对任何贸易体制而言，无论是全球性的多边贸易体制，还是区域性的双边或周边贸易体制，争端解决机制是其贸易规则中必不可少的内容。对GMS来说同样如此。因为，无论GMS贸易自由化规则设计得如何科学合理，若没有一套有效的争端解决机制作为其实施的后盾，6国之间的贸易纠纷就无法得到及时有效的解决，