Cross‐cutting issues and the consolidation of democracy in Taiwan

This article examines the cause of Taiwan's recent successful democratic consolidation. It argues that cross‐cutting issues in the electoral process allow democratic systems to periodically generate new winners. The prospect of reasonable certainty to win gives different political groups, including previously anti‐system or semi‐loyal groups, incentives to adhere to the democratic rules of the game. This process contributed to the democratic consolidation in Taiwan. More specifically, the non‐mainstream faction of the ruling Kuomintang (KMT) party, which initially opposed democratization, and the opposition Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) which wanted more radical constitutional and political reforms, came to accept the post‐transition democratic regime due to the emergence of new electoral issues. New issues surrounding corruption and socio‐economic reforms allowed both the non‐mainstream faction of the KMT and the DPP to advance their interests through the democratic electoral process.     

Structural Sources of Post-Communist Market Reform: Economic Structure, Political Culture, and War

Why did some post-communist countries implement more thorough market reforms than others? Four different structural explanations are considered: (1) relative size of economic interest group coalitions hurt by market reform; (2) predominant religious traditions, which may incorporate norms and institutions more or less favorable to market reform; (3) variation in historically based national economic and political expectations, in which greater pre-communist political and economic achievements may create collective rationales for more aggressive institutional and policy reforms; and (4) duration of large-scale military conflict, which may distract and undermine reformist governments. These explanations are tested both directly, and mediated through plausible process predictors—democratization, party ideological moderation or extremism, strength of the presidency, and party system concentration. The 28 post-communist countries are examined over shorter and longer time spans—2 years after the fall of the old regime and a decade or so after the fall. The two political culture variables—predominant religious tradition and national economic and political expectations—provide the most statistically significant and powerful predictors. War is also a significant and powerful predictor. Relative size of economic interest group coalitions is estimated to have little impact. Among the process variables, democratization and party ideological moderation have the most consistently significant and powerful impacts. One implication is that middle-range theories of political culture, which can be more firmly grounded in rational calculation and historical context, may be a promising way to remedy the weaknesses of political culture theories operating at the broader level of religion or civilization.     

The political origins of South Korea's economic crisis: Is democratization to blame?

Different explanations have been presented regarding the recent economic crisis in South Korea. After critically evaluating these explanations, the article modifies and refines the dominant model, the mea culpa paradigm, to develop a political, interactive and integrative explanation of the crisis. The economic breakdown during the Kim Young Sam regime in Korea (1993–98) was mainly due to the Kim government's failure to carry out its well‐intended economic reforms, particularly chaebol reforms. The reasons for the failure of the economic reforms, in turn, consist of a set of political factors, including President Kim's distinctive leadership style encapsulated by ‘decretistic populism’, the chaebôl's effective cultural strategies of agenda denial and an anti‐reform campaign by conservative social forces. In this respect, the economic crisis in Korea is also a political crisis. The article refutes a popular interpretation within Korea that blames democracy for the economic crisis, demonstrating that there is at best a very tenuous relationship between the democratization in the country since 1987 and the economic crisis. To overcome the crisis, the current Kim Dae Jung government in Korea should avoid decretistic populism, forge and maintain a constructive alliance with civil society groups and develop a solid coalition for economic reform.     

Political Liberalization in Bin Ali's Tunisia: Façade Democracy

In considering political liberalization in post-Bourguiba Tunisia since 1987, it is hard to argue the case for the reforms initiated by his successor, President Bin Ali, without noticing their limitations and even contradictions. In a world characterized by increasing democratization, the Tunisian example seems to buck the global trend, despite several noteworthy achievements - periodic elections, licensed political parties, sustained economic growth and stability. To a considerable extent the analysis of Bin Ali's 'façade democracy' here confirms this assessment, owing especially to the exclusionary and corporatist character of the democracy. Bin Ali's much hailed 'era of change' may well be not much different from the regime of his predecessor. Like Bourguiba, Bin Ali continues to exclude Islamists and other potentially formidable opposition from more secular forces from political participation and contestation. Similarly, the start of a presidential campaign by the ruling party to amend the constitution, in 2001, to enable Bin Ali to remain president beyond his constitutionally mandated second and last term which ends in 2004, gives a strong sense of déjà vu: Bourguiba's presidency-for-life.     

Frozen political liberalization in Jordan: The consequences for democracy

Prompted by serious economic difficulties, in 1989 the Jordanian government launched a series of political liberalization measures aimed at rejuvenating the country's parliament and party politics, and restoring freedom to the media. Despite much initial enthusiasm, the liberalization process has become frozen and there have been few substantive moves toward a meaningful transition to democracy. Two developments have combined to result in this democratization freeze. One is the reluctance of the state to give up many of its powers in relation to the forces of civil society. A second is the inability of professional associations and the emerging parliamentary opposition bloc to formulate and institute viable links within themselves and with other social actors in an attempt to pressure the monarchy for more political concessions. The hybrid, semi‐democratic, absolutist monarchy that has emerged in the process has enhanced its popular legitimacy by adopting certain democratic trappings, which, in the short run at least, appear detrimental to a more meaningful transition to democratic rule.     

东亚与欧美政党在民主化中的作用

本文以政党在民主化过程中的基本作用为起点，在与欧美政党相比较的基础上阐述了东亚工业化国家的政党自20世纪80年代以来在民主化过程中的作用。指出尽管政党变迁的路径各有不同，但全方位型政党及其代表性功能已经成为政党发展的重要趋势，东亚只有发展起具有一定群众性和代表性的全方位型政党才能在民主巩固过程中发挥重要作用。同时，有一个相对自由的宪政环境对于形成既有竞争性又有包容性的政党体制是不可或缺的，这是政治民主化稳定发展的重要前提。     

The transformation of political party opposition in Malaysia and its implications for the electoral authoritarian regime

Malaysia's electoral authoritarian system is increasingly coming under pressure. Indicators of this are the metamorphosis of opposition forces since 1998 and, in particular, the results of the 2008 parliamentary elections. From 1957 until 1998 political party opposition was fragmented. An initial transformation of political party opposition began at the height of the Asian financial crisis, after a major conflict within the ruling United Malays National Organization in 1998. However, the regime was able to weaken the opposition, resulting in its poor performance in the 2004 elections. Afterwards, in a second transformation that has continued until the present time, an oppositional People's Alliance (Pakatan Rakyat) has emerged that now has a serious chance of taking over the federal government. This article argues that the increase in the strength and cohesion of political party opposition since 1998 has been caused mainly by five combined factors: the emergence of pro-democratic segments within a multi-ethnic and multi-religious middle class; the intensified interaction of political parties and civil society forces; the impact of new media; the eroded legitimacy of the United Malays National Organization and other parties of the ruling coalition; and the internal reforms within the Islamist Pan-Malaysian Islamic Party (Parti Islam SeMalaysia). Consequently it has become conceivable that the country will incrementally democratize in a protracted transition. Although the 1999 and 2008 elections were not foundational, they have been transitional. They may not have inaugurated a new democratic regime, but they have marked important phases in the struggle for democracy in Malaysia.     

An elusive transition: The slow motion demise of authoritarian dominant party rule in Mexico

Mexico's authoritarian dominant party regime is a curious hybrid.¹ The 1917 Constitution is an advanced liberal charter and some basic rules of political procedure ‐ such as the fixed timetable for federal elections and the no re‐election rule ‐ are strongly institutionalised. Yet for over 60 years the regime was also clearly authoritarian, deriving its legitimacy from the revolution rather than the electorate. This article analyses the sui generis nature of the Mexican authoritarian regime, tracing the way formal constitutional rules were supplemented (or displaced) by a coherent and relatively flexible set of informal understandings perpetuating one party dominance. It counterposes these country‐specific characteristics to comparative accounts of how authoritarian regimes ‘break down’, or introduce a ‘political liberalization’ which perhaps opens the way to a ‘transition’ to democracy. Under each of these headings Mexican reality demands significant adaptations to the standard account. During 1994 Mexico underwent severe upheavals without a ‘breakdown’ of the regime. Instead the 1994 presidential election provided a reasonably authentic electoral mandate to the current administration ‐ and yet the process of ‘transition’ to democracy in Mexico remains elusive. This article uses the current Mexican process to probe the scope and limitations of the comparative democratization literature.     

Abortive regime transition in Egypt: pro-democracy alliance and demand-making framework

What accounts for the failed transition and restructuring of authoritarianism in Egypt after a fleeting rupture in 2011? How did the dominant statist party lose its iron grip on power? Why did the collapse of the dominant party not bring about significant democratic transformation and generate power-sharing pacts? The article aims to go beyond the question of the importance of either authoritarian resilience or the transition paradigm to offer a two-layered analytical framework based on leverage level and the coherence of pro-democracy forces’ demands to account both for the timing of one-party collapse and the consequent dynamics of authoritarian revival. I allow room for complex and strategic interactions between different components of pro-democracy forces and the old ruling class to elucidate the contingent political trajectory after the time of disintegration. When pro-democracy forces maintained their leveraged position and kept a demand-claiming framework unified, they secured a ‘cooperative differentiation’ position and were able to apply consistent democratization pressure that led to regime breakdown. When they adopted a conformist stance and accommodated their demands to the incumbent regime, they became captive to the interests of old regime holdovers and asserted an ‘antagonistic identification’ position that hobbled efforts to move towards democratization.     

论苏哈托与军队关系的变化

军队是苏哈托“新秩序”政权的权力基础,双方是一种共生关系。但是随着苏哈托个人权威的加强,他与军队逐渐分离成两支独立的政治力量,军队的地位和影响有所下降。本文主要探究这一关系变化的原因。苏哈托后的三位总统在不同程度上对军队进行改革,有助于印尼的民主化进程。     

Reassessing the Role of Civil Society Organizations in the Transition to Democracy in Spain

Spain's democratization process has mainly been described as a settlement between political elites in which civil society organizations played little part. Yet the literature on Eastern European democratization sets great store by the role of civil society, both for transition and consolidation. Does this different treatment reflect the approach adopted by analysts or the actual contrasting presence of civil society organizations in the relevant periods? The question prompts this re-examination of the role of civil society organizations in the Spanish transition. It finds that the answer depends in part on definitions of civil society, but mainly on the approach taken by authors in presenting their accounts. It finds that the elite settlement perspective silences or removes agency from the Spanish civil society organizations active in the transition.

An alternative view is developed through an in-depth review of the events following the death of the dictator General Franco in 1975 and a textual analysis of Spain's actual definitive settlement, the 1978 Constitution. The research demonstrates that civil society organizations were responsible for disrupting the dictatorship's intention to maintain an authoritarian regime, leaving it no option but to negotiate with civil society organizations such as political parties and trade unions, which were pursuing their own strategic goals towards co-construction of a socially advanced democracy. The article's approach bridges the gulf between top-down and bottom-up accounts of political change in Spain at the end of the Franco regime.     

Democratization in Mozambique: Trends and practices

This article explores the nature of party political competition four years after Mozambique's first democratic national elections, with particular attention being accorded to the democratization of local government. It commences with an overview of the nature of contemporary party politics in Mozambique. Secondly, the democratization of local government is reviewed. Thirdly, recent political developments are located within the context of major economic reconstruction and escalating corruption. It is concluded that whilst Mozambique does have a stable multi‐party system in the formal sense at least, the substance of genuine multi‐partyism remains elusive, given the near‐total lack of policy alternatives and the proliferation of corruption at the highest levels of political life.     

Democratic agency in the local political sphere. Reflections on inclusion in Bolivia

Numerous arguments have been advanced in the academic and policy literature as concerns the democratizing potential of decentralization reforms in third-wave developing and transition countries; numerous also have been the case studies signalling the short-comings of these reforms. In addition, analysis of local political participation has become an important dimension of studies of democratization. Taking the case of Bolivia as an example, this article addresses an issue which has been generally overlooked in this literature, that is the process of constitution of local political agents. Where do political agents come from in the context of democratization of local politics? Additionally, this article raises questions regarding the relationship between greater inclusion and deepening democracy in the local political sphere.     

Reforming governance under authoritarianism: motivations and pathways of local participatory reform in the People’s Republic of China

Many authoritarian regimes use participatory political reform to maintain control over the societies under their rule and survive global waves of democratization. Recent studies of transitional governance have underscored the importance and intricacy of institutional reform; however, no consensus has been reached on an explanation of the dynamism that shapes institutional reforms under non-democratic systems. Why do authoritarian apparatchiks reform their institutions of governance? How can the varied pathways of these reforms be explained? Post-Deng China provides an ideal laboratory in which to study these issues. Since the 1990s, growing tensions between the Leninist polity and a gradually opened society have compelled local governments in China to test a vast set of participatory reforms. In an examination of three major local participatory budgeting reforms in China, this article maps the main pathways – representation, consultation, and transparency – of these recent sub-national participatory reforms implemented by the incumbent regime, and explores the driving forces that sculpt a reformist model over the alternatives. By introducing an “incentive-contingent framework”, this article sketches out the “repertoire” of participatory reforms in the authoritarian governance of China and suggests an explanatory framework for the variation in the strategies and forms of such institutional innovations.     

Atoms and democracy: Political transition and the role of nuclear energy

Under periods of political change from authoritarianism to democracy, why does nuclear energy become a catalyst for political protest in some countries and not others? This study investigates the link between anti‐nuclear protest and democratization, arguing that the extent to which a high‐risk technology becomes a target of democratization movements is a function of the institutional characteristics of the technology generated under the preceding authoritarian regime. In the case of nuclear energy, where authoritarian states have built an institutional foundation for the technology rooted in national identity and technical prestige, political opposition during subsequent periods of democratization will be weaker than if they had relied on its instrumental utility and on regulatory power. Such institutional claims make it difficult to attack the technology without appearing to oppose progress or the aspirations of the nation itself. During periods of political change, variations in technological institutions and their resulting legitimacy will have a dramatic effect on the strength and content of anti‐nuclear activity.     

The Presidency,the Parties and Democratization in Mexico

This article seeks to explain how democratization in Mexico reinvigorated a party system that a generation earlier existed mainly on paper. The process of democratization involved a reduction, though by no means the elimination, of the meta-presidentialism in favour of a more law-based system. Forces exogenous to the party system shaped the initial democratization process. However, once the regime agreed to accept certain electoral rule changes, especially after 1986, the system of party competition developed dramatically to a much greater extent than expected. The initial threat to the system posed by the Cardenas candidacy in 1988 was suppressed. However, after 1988 electoral competition became increasingly important. In terms of shaping factors, therefore, one could see the birth of party competition contingent on other democratizing influences. However, once born, it proved to have a considerable shaping influence of its own. The current democratic system in Mexico selects the president by simple majority. There is no runoff system. However, Congress is elected according to systems of proportional representation. This makes minority presidentialism likely, as has indeed been the pattern since 2000. Since the Mexican constitution confers rather few powers on the presidency, the result is likely to be a continued redistribution of power from the president to the Congress.     

Economic policy reform and political transitions in sub‐Saharan Africa

This article examines the distributional consequences of neo‐liberal economic reform during the contemporary era of political transition in the sub‐Saharan African nations of Ghana, Kenya, Senegal, Tanzania and Zambia. It questions the conventional wisdom that reform, by imposing austerity, only produces economic ‘losers’ and subsequent political opposition which will derail reform programmes, particularly in transitional democracies such as those in present‐day Africa. Indeed, it demonstrates that economically reformist politicians employ democratization as a strategy to rebuild support coalitions after initiating economic reform, as it allows them to disengage from old clients and to organize reform ‘winners’. Therefore, taking the above‐mentioned cases as a group, this article suggests that Africa's current economic and political reforms may be mutually reinforcing.     

Does substantive democratization create more committed democrats? Surprising evidence from Africa

A growing body of evidence holds that citizens support democracy when they believe the regime has provided individual freedoms and political rights. Put simply, citizens develop legitimacy attitudes by learning about democracy. These findings, however, are based on citizens' evaluations of the procedural elements of democracy. Democratization also entails substantive reforms that likely impact legitimacy attitudes. This article provides the first test of how the success – and failure – of substantive democratization shapes legitimacy attitudes. Using data from the second round of Afrobarometer surveys, I find surprising results. Citizens who judge the regime to be more successful in substantive democratization are actually less likely to be committed democrats. I conclude with possible explanations of these surprising findings and reflect on the challenges for both future research and for the new democracies facing this situation.     

Enforced democratization in Japan: lessons for Iraq and Afghanistan

Reconstruction of a society through foreign intervention has been a topical issue during recent years mainly because of the events that have taken place in Afghanistan and Iraq. These countries are facing an extrinsic pressure to undergo a series of social, political and economic reforms. While the prevailing interest is derived from ongoing occupations, notable attention has also been paid to corresponding experiences of the past. This has especially placed the Allied occupation of Japan under the spotlight. Despite the unique internal and external characteristics of the process that took place in Japan from 1945 to 1952, the political reconstruction of Japan can be utilized as a frame of reference against which the lessons drawn from the recent democratization processes can be reflected. This not only reveals the challenges and possibilities of the political reconstruction processes aiming at democracy, but also leads to the question as to whether the process of democratization can ever meet the demands of democracy if it is enforced by foreign occupiers. The experiences in Japan suggest that the utilization of nondemocratic practices and the period of pseudo-democracy do not rule out the possibility of the emergence of a genuine democracy.     

Democratization and the secularization of religious parties: the case of Mexico

Under what conditions does democratization erode religious political engagement? The dramatic democratic transitions in the Catholic world during the last quarter of the twentieth century have been accompanied by the widespread decline of Catholic political parties, but the interaction between democratizing reforms and the development of religious parties in the Catholic world remains poorly understood. This article analyses the crucial case of Mexico to explore if, how, and under what conditions electoral participation encourages the differentiation of religious and partisan activism. Relying on archival research and an original data set describing the religious linkages of 302 historic and contemporary leading members of the PAN, Mexico's largest Catholic-inspired party, this article shows that democratization is only indirectly linked to the secularization of religious parties, and its effects are conditional on the resources and opportunities available to religious activists.