Estimating Size of Drug Users in Macau: an Open Population Capture-Recapture Model with Data Augmentation Using Public Registration Data

Successful drug intervention policies rely on timely assessment of size of drug users and close monitoring of trend regarding drug abuse. Taking advantage of data collected by the Central Registration System for Drug Abusers of Macau (CRSDAM), this study applied open population capture-recapture models with data augmentation techniques to estimate the size of drug users and to identify influential factors on capture and survival probabilities from 2009 to 2014. In particular, the data augmentation technique was used to address missing data issues. The estimated size of drug users has been slowly declining from 2442 (95% Bayesian credible interval [BCI] 2042–2914) in 2009 to 807 (95% BCI 654–1000) in 2014 with a small fluctuation of 2251 (95% BIC 1950–2599) in 2011, and the estimated cumulative size of drug users is 6199 (95% BCI 5651–6873), which is correspondent to a prevalence rate of 1.20% of the current population aged 15 to 54. Although the estimated sizes of total, narcotic, and other drug users were declining, the size of stimulant users might be increasing. People who used narcotics as their first drug and who were reported by governmental agencies were more likely to stay in the registration system, while those who used needle injection were less likely to stay. Governmental agencies, higher education, and using needle injection were negatively associated with the probability of capture over time, while using narcotics as the first drug was positively associated with it.     

China's Development Concepts,Thoughts and Strategies for the New Era

正The 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China(CPC)has laid out a blueprint for China’s development in the years to come.Xia Yipu,an associate researcher with the Academy of Marxism,Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,has made a comprehensive     

船舶压载水排放带来海洋生物入侵的法律监管——以船旗国监控为视角

船舶压载水排放的船旗国监控是防止压载水排放带来海洋外来生物入侵的第一道防线。在指出船舶压载水排放带来海洋生物入侵的现状和危害的基础上,分析了船舶压载水排放船旗国监控的内涵和法理依据,探讨了船舶压载水排放的船旗国监控与港口国监控的关系及协调,提出了中国建立压载水船旗国监控的立法紧迫性。     

古丁与“大东亚文学”

1942年至1944年间,伪满文坛出现了"大东亚文学"的潮流。被认定为"弄潮儿"的古丁,由于留下了三次参加大东亚文学者大会的经历而难辞其咎。古丁与"大东亚文学"的关系,于是成为作家作品研究的一个重要话题。本文从作家真实经历与文本深层解读两个视角,对这一时期的古丁进行了实事求是的现代解读,力图触及伪满作家作品研究的复杂与艰难,并借此找到古丁研究的新路径。     

新媒体:社会风险放大的新型场域——基于技术与文化的视角

媒介天然具有"放大"潜能。相对传统媒体而言,新媒体技术及其创生文化所构建的新媒体环境,更是成了社会风险前所未有的放大场域。一方面,新媒体与风险扩散之间形成了高度的技术耦合,新媒体技术在风险扩散速度、扩散范围、感知渠道、体验效果、不确定性等方面大幅提升了风险放大的概率、加剧了其放大后果;另一方面,新媒体技术创生的文化进一步驱动了风险放大中的信息传播机制与社会反应机制,导致风险的非理性放大以及相关社会运动的激化,使得风险又衍生出其他更多的社会风险。     

党的建设制度改革的理论与实践

深化党的建设制度改革是中国共产党领导全面深化改革的重大战略举措,是完成全面深化改革任务的政治保证,是推进国家治理体系和治理能力现代化、提高党的执政水平的内在要求。正确推进党的建设制度改革,需要准确把握党的建设制度的内涵及改革要求,在思想、组织和领导统筹等方面积极创建党的建设制度改革的良好环境和条件。     

“580”情绪转化站的创业机制研究

着眼于转变大学生的培养模式、提高大学生社会适应能力、增强大学生就业竞争力的大学生创新创业训练计划是国家创新体系建设的重要组成部分。四川省省级创业训练项目"580情绪转化站"以自主研发的www.qxzhz580.icoc.cn网站为创业平台,在对客户负性情绪在线调查后提供咨询、倾诉、疏泄、转化等系列在线问诊的专业服务,最终将客户的负性情绪转化成正能量,提高客户的幸福指数,从而产生良好的社会效益和可观的经济效益,成功实现创业计划。     

Part of the Family

Zheng Yu is in love with cats. Her child-hood dream to own one was finally realized last year when she started work-ing and got her own apartment. However, over the course of several months, Zheng's assumptions on keeping a cat have completely changed. She never knew that domesticated cats had spawned an entire industry with a range of products and services that beggars be-lief. Toys, nail clippers, fur care powder, pooper scoopers, hygiene products and furniture are but a few. "It's totaly beyond my imagination," she toldBeijing Review.     

殖民文化视角下的“协和语”认识

出现在近代中日关系中的协和语,是一种伴随着殖民入侵而出现的语言现象,在一个世纪以上的历史跨度中,一方面极具生命力,是日本人与中国人民间语言交流的一种文化现实;另一方面,又是语言规律之外的一个怪胎,呈现出日本语与中国语混淆使用的基本面目,从未有过登堂入室的体面经历。本文从协和语概念的界定、协和语发展的三个不同阶段,以及作为殖民语言的本质特征等几个方面,讨论了关于协和语的初步认识。     

郑洪年与国立暨南大学的党化教育(1927—1934)

党化教育是国民党掌权后在思想领域实行一党专制的重要手段,尤以民国国立大学内的党化教育最为典型。本文着重以民国华侨教育家郑洪年任校长期间的国立暨南大学为考察点,探讨国民党在国立大学实施党化教育的主旨、具体措施及其影响,以加深对民国时期党化教育的认识。